Model of spills and fires from LNG and oil tankers

A comprehensive model for predicting the dynamics of spills from LNG and oil product tankers is constructed from fluid mechanics principles and empirical properties of oil and LNG spills on water. The analysis utilizes the significant tanker hold and discharge flow area dimensions to specify the cargo liquid outflow history and the ensuing pool characteristics, including the establishment of a pool fire. The pool fire area, duration, and heat release rate are determined as functions of the tanker cargo variables. Examples of an LNG and gasoline spill show that for likely discharge flow areas these spills may be regarded as instantaneous, simplifying the evaluation of risk consequences.     

Coupling dynamic blow down and pool evaporation model for LNG

Treating the dynamic effects of accidental discharges of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is important for realistic predictions of pool radius. Two phenomena have important influence on pool spread dynamics, time-varying discharge (blow down) and pool ignition. Time-varying discharge occurs because a punctured LNG tanker or storage tank drains with a decreasing liquid head and decreasing head-space pressure. Pool ignition increases the evaporation rate of a pool and consequently decreases the ultimate pool area. This paper describes an approach to treat these phenomena in a dynamic pool evaporation model.

The pool evaporation model developed here has two separate regimes. Early in the spill, momentum forces dominate and the pool spreads independently of pool evaporation rate and the corresponding heat transfer rate. After the average pool depth drops below a minimum value, momentum forces are largely dissipated and the thin edges of the pool completely evaporate, so pool area is established by the heat transfer rate. The maximum extent of a burning pool is predicted to be significantly less than that of an unignited pool because the duration of the first regime is reduced by higher heat transfer rates. The maximum extent of an LNG pool is predicted to be larger upon accounting for blow down compared with using a constant average discharge rate. However, the maximum pool extent occurs only momentarily before retreating.     

Failure investigation and condition assessment using field metallography

In many cases it is not possible or practical to extract samples for a subsequent laboratory failure investigation. Examples of such cases are condition assessments of larger structures that have been exposed to fire and examination of cracks or defects observed in components such as pressure vessels which are still in operation. In other cases the first step of a failure investigation will be to gather a maximum of information on-site, prior to a laboratory examination. In all these situations field metallography represents a useful tool to obtain as much information as possible.

The most common field metallographic tools are briefly presented in the article.

Cases of failure investigations where field metallography has been an important tool will be presented. This includes:

• Assessment of defects in a pressure vessel in service at elevated temperature.

• Condition assessment of a ship hull damaged by fire during construction.

• Investigation of fractured wheel shaft on high speed train.

Model of large pool fires

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.     

Spread of large LNG pools on the sea

A review of the standard model of LNG pool spreading on water, comparing it with the model and experiments on oil pool spread from which the LNG model is extrapolated, raises questions about the validity of the former as applied to spills from marine tankers. These questions arise from the difference in fluid density ratios, in the multi-dimensional flow at the pool edge, in the effects of LNG pool boiling at the LNG–water interface, and in the model and experimental initial conditions compared with the inflow conditions from a marine tanker spill. An alternate supercritical flow model is proposed that avoids these difficulties; it predicts significant increase in the maximum pool radius compared with the standard model and is partially corroborated by tests of LNG pool fires on water. Wind driven ocean wave interaction has little effect on either spread model.     

Limitations in the decision strategies of design students

This paper summarizes a study based on the observation of 12 first-year postgraduate students of architecture at an American university. The study aimed to identify the decision-making strategies used by the students in tackling the educational design projects set for them, the differences between students' strategies, and their varying degrees of sucess. Three levels of strategy were identified:

• • an overall strategic level of operation

• • mechanisms for operating the strategies

• • the operation of basic design skills

More successful students were found to have greater ranges and flexibility of operation at all three levels.

It is suggested that there are parallels between effective strategies of decision-making and the skills of the performing arts.     

Computer-based aids for public participation in planning

This paper proposes the use of computer-based aids in participatory planning to:

• give people at home a link with education, information and participation networks

• provide the public with access to all the data necessary for creative participation

• create a satisfactory communication system, based on mutual trust and interactive dialogue between all the participants in the planning process

It is based on the author's strong belief that information and computer technology can offer a powerful facility to those who wich to be involved in the decision processes affecting their environment.

It provides a review of imminent technical possibilities. Cost effectiveness and resouce requirements are not treated at this stage of discussion.     

Modelling of the deformation behaviour of FGM by fuzzy-logic

A lot of processes for the manufacture of functionally gradient materials (FGM) have their limitations (simple geometry of components, gradient limited in one dimension). A further treatment by forming processes would extend the field of applications of FGM because it would make it possible to manufacture shaped pieces and to influence the properties of the material.

For this it is necessary to predetermine the deformation behaviour by mathematical models. Conventional equations have only limited applications because many other influences have to be considered.

Therefore a new model based on mathematical methods of fuzzy-logic has been developed which can describe the plasto-mechanical behaviour of FGM during the deformation process. The main advantages are:

• no necessity to represent the mathematical equation between in- and output variables by functions;

• adaptable algorithms;

• almost no restriction of the number of influencing variables;

• simple solution of multi-dimensional approximation problems.

Experiments to determine the deformation behaviour have been carried out on different material systems (Al–Cu, 316L–430L, Al–SiC) by using the hot upsetting test. First results show that this kind of modelling is suitable to describe the deformation behaviour very accurately.     

Analysis of crack propagation during tooth interior fatigue fracture

Tooth interior fatigue fracture is a failure mode that is initiated as a fatigue crack in the interior of the tooth of a gear. TIFF cracks have been observed in case hardened idler gears. A fracture mechanical analysis of a TIFF crack is performed utilising FEA. A 3D TIFF crack is modelled at a position in the tooth that corresponds with an observed crack surface. The different material properties in the case and the core, determined by mechanical testing, are considered, as well as the residual state of stress due to case hardening. Various crack lengths are analysed to estimate crack propagation both into the core and into the case. The following results have been found:

• A TIFF crack initiated slightly under the case layer will propagate into the case layer where it stops.

• The main crack propagation will take place in the core.

• The crack propagation is only a small portion of the total life (order of 10⁵ cycles).

• After reaching the case layer the TIFF crack eventually deflects toward the tooth root and the upper part of the tooth falls off. The crack deflection is due to redistribution of contact loading. Several gear teeth pairs are simultaneously in contact and the cracked tooth is loaded less than the uncracked during this stage of life.

A co-operation framework for product–process integration in engineering design

Many different studies have stressed the importance of co-operation in engineering design. This paper is based on an empirical study carried out over 18 months and based on fieldwork where the researcher worked in a design team as a mechanical engineer. The question of product–process integration is particularly critical in mechanical engineering and requires the development of specific co-operative procedures. Our results stress the importance of artefacts as intermediary objects in the design process and more specifically in the development of co-operative processes. We developed a framework centred on three conceptual levels:

• At product level, where we developed specific artefacts within a CAD environment, referred to herein as co-operating features,

• At organisation level, where we stress the importance of developing organisational learning and a new interface role,

• At actor level, where we stress the importance of developing reflective practices.

This conceptual framework aims to provide a foundation to develop instrumental settings for design co-operation.     

Analysis of large LNG spills on water part 1: Liquid spread and evaporation

The first part of this two-part review considers the theoretical and experimental results obtained on liquid spread and evaporation on large LNG spills on water. Both instantaneous spills, in which the spill time is much smaller than the time for complete vaporization, and continuous spills are considered. Also applications of the correlations are discussed.     

Comparison of different approaches for estimation of creep crack initiation

In large components such as rotors defects due to manufacturing processes have to be taken into account and crack assessments based on findings of non-destructive evaluation are necessary. Approaches are used in remaining life estimations, for example:

• Time Dependent Failure Assessment Diagram (TDFAD),

• Two Criteria Diagram (2CD) and

• Nikbin–Smith–Webster-Model (NSW-Model).

The TDFAD approach is currently being developed within the R5 procedures as an alternative to conventional methods for predicting incubation and the early stages of Creep Crack growth. A key requirement of TDFAD approaches is the evaluation of a time dependent creep toughness, denoted K_c mat. The 2CD approach has been developed independently in Germany to assess Creep crack incubation in ferritic steels. This approach uses crack tip and ligament damage parameters, R_K and R_σ, respectively. Furthermore the NSW-Model is employed for the estimation of creep crack initiation by using the creep fracture mechanics parameter C^*. Calculations and used parameters were compared for a ferritic 1CrMoV-steel.     

An LNG release, transport, and fate model system for marine spills

LNGMAP, a fully integrated, geographic information based modular system, has been developed to predict the fate and transport of marine spills of LNG. The model is organized as a discrete set of linked algorithms that represent the processes (time dependent release rate, spreading, transport on the water surface, evaporation from the water surface, transport and dispersion in the atmosphere, and, if ignited, burning and associated radiated heat fields) affecting LNG once it is released into the environment. A particle-based approach is employed in which discrete masses of LNG released from the source are modeled as individual masses of LNG or spillets. The model is designed to predict the gas mass balance as a function of time and to display the spatial and temporal evolution of the gas (and radiated energy field).

LNGMAP has been validated by comparisons to predictions of models developed by ABS Consulting and Sandia for time dependent point releases from a draining tank, with and without burning. Simulations were in excellent agreement with those performed by ABS Consulting and consistent with Sandia's steady state results.

To illustrate the model predictive capability for realistic emergency scenarios, simulations were performed for a tanker entering Block Island Sound. Three hypothetical cases were studied: the first assumes the vessel continues on course after the spill starts, the second that the vessel stops as soon as practical after the release begins (3 min), and the third that the vessel grounds at the closest site practical. The model shows that the areas of the surface pool and the incident thermal radiation field (with burning) are minimized and dispersed vapor cloud area (without burning) maximized if the vessel continues on course. For this case the surface pool area, with burning, is substantially smaller than for the without burning case because of the higher mass loss rate from the surface pool due to burning. Since the vessel speed substantially exceeds the spill spreading rate, both the thermal radiation fields and surface pool trail the vessel. The relative directions and speeds of the wind and vessel movement govern the orientation of the dispersed plume.

If the vessel stops, the areas of the surface pool and incident radiation field (with burning) are maximized and the dispersed cloud area (without burning) minimized. The longer the delay in stopping the vessel, the smaller the peak values are for the pool area and the size of the thermal radiation field. Once the vessel stops, the spill pool is adjacent to the vessel and moving down current. The thermal radiation field is oriented similarly. These results may be particularly useful in contingency planning for underway vessels.     

The influence of ice formation on vaporization of LNG on water surfaces

The spillage of LNG on water surfaces can lead, under certain circumstances, to a decrease in the surface temperature of water and subsequent freezing. A model for heat transfer from water to LNG is proposed and used to calculate the surface temperature of water and examine its influence on the vaporization rate of LNG. For this purpose LNG was modeled based on the properties of pure methane. It was concluded that when LNG spills on a confined, shallow-water surface the surface temperature of water will decrease rapidly leading to ice formation. The formation of an ice layer, that will continue to grow for the duration of the spill, will have a profound effect upon the vaporization rate. The decreasing surface temperature of ice will decrease the temperature differential between LNG and ice that drives the heat transfer and will lead to a change of the boiling regime. The overall effect would be that the vaporization flux would first decrease during the film boiling; followed by an increase during the transition boiling and a steady decrease during the nucleate boiling.     

LNG fires: a review of experimental results, models and hazard prediction challenges

A number of experimental investigations of LNG fires (of sizes 35 m diameter and smaller) were undertaken, world wide, during the 1970s and 1980s to study their physical and radiative characteristics. This paper reviews the published data from several of these tests including from the largest test to date, the 35 m, Montoir tests.

Also reviewed in this paper is the state of the art in modeling LNG pool and vapor fires, including thermal radiation hazard modeling. The review is limited to considering the integral and semi-empirical models (solid flame and point source); CFD models are not reviewed. Several aspects of modeling LNG fires are reviewed including, the physical characteristics, such as the (visible) fire size and shape, tilt and drag in windy conditions, smoke production, radiant thermal output, etc., and the consideration of experimental data in the models. Comparisons of model results with experimental data are indicated and current deficiencies in modeling are discussed.

The requirements in the US and European regulations related to LNG fire hazard assessment are reviewed, in brief, in the light of model inaccuracies, criteria for hazards to people and structures, and the effects of mitigating circumstances. The paper identifies: (i) critical parameters for which there exist no data, (ii) uncertainties and unknowns in modeling and (iii) deficiencies and gaps in current regulatory recipes for predicting hazards.     

Application of CFD (Fluent) to LNG spills into geometrically complex environments

Recent discussions on the fate of LNG spills into impoundments have suggested that the commonly used combination of SOURCE5 and DEGADIS to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distances is not accurate, as it does not account for vapor entrainment by wind. SOURCE5 assumes the vapor layer to grow upward uniformly in the form of a quiescent saturated gas cloud that ultimately spills over impoundment walls. The rate of spillage is then used as the source term for DEGADIS. A more rigorous approach to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distance is to use a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. CFD codes can take into account the physical phenomena that govern the fate of LNG spills into impoundments, such as the mixing between air and the evaporated gas. Before a CFD code can be proposed as an alternate method for the prediction of flammable vapor cloud distances, it has to be validated with proper experimental data. This paper describes the use of Fluent, a widely-used commercial CFD code, to simulate one of the tests in the "Falcon" series of LNG spill tests. The "Falcon" test series was the only series that specifically addressed the effects of impoundment walls and construction obstructions on the behavior and dispersion of the vapor cloud. Most other tests, such as the Coyote and the Burro series, involved spills onto water and relatively flat ground. The paper discusses the critical parameters necessary for a CFD model to accurately predict the behavior of a cryogenic spill in a geometrically complex domain, and presents comparisons between the gas concentrations measured during the Falcon-1 test and those predicted using Fluent. Finally, the paper discusses the effect vapor barriers have in containing part of the spill thereby shortening the ignitable vapor cloud and therefore the required hazard area. This issue was addressed by comparing the Falcon-1 simulation (spill into the impoundment) with the simulation of an identical spill without any impoundment walls, or obstacles within the impoundment area.     

The spreading and evaporation of LNG- and burning LNG-spills on water

This paper contains the results of a theoretical investigation into the evaporation and spilling of LNG and the burning of LNG on open water and on a confined water surface.The spreading and evaporation of LNG spilled on open water are calculated and compared with experimental reaults. As little is known about the evaporation of LNG on a confined water surface a model has been derived which describes the evaporation including the forming of an ice layer. The models derived for the spreading and evaporation of LNG on open water and on a confined water surface are also used to calculate the spreading and evaporation of burning LNG-spills. The heat radiation from the flames into the pool has been calculated from experimental data from LNG-fires on land.It is concluded that the results of this investigation concerning the evaporation of LNG on water agree well with the available experimental data, but that the calculated results for burning LNG can only be considered as a rough estimate.     

A review of large-scale LNG spills: experiments and modeling

The prediction of the possible hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship has motivated a substantial number of experimental and analytical studies. This paper reviews the experimental and analytical work performed to date on large-scale spills of LNG. Specifically, experiments on the dispersion of LNG, as well as experiments of LNG fires from spills on water and land are reviewed. Explosion, pool boiling, and rapid phase transition (RPT) explosion studies are described and discussed, as well as models used to predict dispersion and thermal hazard distances. Although there have been significant advances in understanding the behavior of LNG spills, technical knowledge gaps to improve hazard prediction are identified. Some of these gaps can be addressed with current modeling and testing capabilities. A discussion of the state of knowledge and recommendations to further improve the understanding of the behavior of LNG spills on water is provided.     

Large hydrocarbon fuel pool fires: physical characteristics and thermal emission variations with height

In a recent paper [P.K. Raj, Large LNG fire thermal radiation-modeling issues and hazard criteria revisited, Process Safety Progr., 24 (3) (2005)] it was shown that large, turbulent fires on hydrocarbon liquid pools display several characteristics including, pulsating burning, production of smoke, and reduced thermal radiation, with increasing size. In this paper, a semi-empirical mathematical model is proposed which considers several of these important fire characteristics. Also included in this paper are the experimental results for the variation of the fire radiance from bottom to top of the fire (and their statistical distribution) from the largest land spill LNG pool fire test conducted to date. The purpose of the model described in this paper is to predict the variation of thermal radiation output along the fire plume and to estimate the overall thermal emission from the fire as a function its size taking into consideration the smoke effects. The model utilizes experimentally measured data for different parameters and uses correlations developed from laboratory and field tests with different fuels. The fire dynamics and combustion of the fuel are modeled using known entrainment and combustion efficiency parameter values. The mean emissive power data from field tests are compared with model predictions. Model results for the average emissive powers of large, hypothetical LNG fires are indicated.