淮安市"十一五"电力需求发展综述

从淮安市“十五”经济发展、电力增长趋势等方面,分析了全市用电情况与走势;根据市委、市政府制定的工业发展战略,分析“十一五”期间用电需求情况与发展目标,针对电力需求的发展情况制定相关措施。     

南京市电力需求现状分析与预测

本文分析了南京市全社会、第一、第二、第三产业及一些典型行业,例如化工、冶金、商贸等行业的电力供需现状,讨论了七年来用电量、电力峰谷差等的发展变化情况。根据南京市用电发展的实际情况,使用经过改进的电力弹性系数法和曲线拟合法对南京市未来五年的用电需求、峰谷差等作出预测。     

电力需求侧管理经济分析

叙述了电力需求侧管理在中国的发展现状及存在的问题,指出,采用电力需求侧管理和一定的激励机制引导电力用户合理用电,可提高电能利用效率,节约电力和电量。     

电力需求侧管理有双重任务

电力竞争性市场的兴起,提出了电力需求响应的需要,相应产生了电力需求侧竞价(DSB),成为电力需求侧管理(DSM)的重要内容。电力需求侧管理不仅要有长效机制,而且需要短期负荷响应行为。     

电力需求与经济发展相关性分析

针对产业结构的周期性调整必然引起电力需求的波动,以上海市卢湾区为例,根据产业结构变化和电量数据,结合产业结构变动指标与电力需求间的关联分析,对区内电力需求变化规律进行捕捉,定性和定量分析得出电力需求受经济发展和产业结构变化的影响,为预测电力需求增长趋势提供理论依据.     

考虑需求价格弹性和风险的外送电效益优化研究

售电侧需求价格弹性和购电侧各市场的价格波动会影响省电力公司跨省跨区外送电的效益。在省电力公司从实时市场、收费协议市场和期货合约市场购电的情况下,考虑需求价格弹性和风险的影响,以省电力公司外送电效益最大和一定效益前提下购售电风险最小为优化目标,建立了省电力公司的外送电效益联合优化模型,采用linprog函数和粒子群智能算法求解。通过算例计算,表明模型在购电比例分配、外送电效益及风险管理上的可行性,为省电力公司购售电决策提供参考,实现自身所能承担风险下的外送电效益最大。     

经济新常态下中国电力需求展望及煤电前景分析

我国以煤为主的电力生产结构带来的生态环境问题日益突出,电力发展面临着一系列新问题和新挑战。在大气治理和二氧化碳峰值的双重约束下,电力行业必须找到适应经济新常态的可持续发展新路径。本文根据我国经济社会发展的动力特征构造了电力需求情景分析模型,对2015—2030年的电力需求进行了多情景分析。根据推荐的电力需求情景,以清洁高效发展煤电、大力发展非水可再生能源、积极发展水电、安全高效发展核电、适度发展气电为基本原则,进行了2015—2030年电源装机规划。结果表明,在经济发展新常态下,综合考虑电能替代和电力能效,电力需求在2020年将达到7.47万亿kWh,2030年达到9.73万亿kWh;煤电装机总规模有望在2020年达到峰值9.73亿kW,此后将进入长达10年的平台期。     

电力需求侧管理技术下的电力经济管理探讨

在当前社会发展中,信息技术正在不断进步发展,针对于电力发展来讲,需要重视电力经济管理,如果缺少电力支撑,则会导致诸多领域都停止运转。所以,在电力需求侧管理技术推广下,需要确保社会用电更加合理,使资源得到科学分配。本文主要分析电力需求侧管理技术下电力经济管理对策,希望可以促进电力经济实现可持续发展。     

工业领域电力需求侧可调节负荷潜力分析

工业领域用电占比高,可调节负荷潜力大,充分挖掘工业领域可调节负荷资源,可有效促进新能源消纳和保障电网供需平衡。通过现场调研与理论研究相结合的方法,重点分析了某市工业领域水泥、玻璃、钢铁、设备制造及纺织等行业的用电负荷特点、调节能力及理论潜力。研究发现,该市工业用户30分钟内可调负荷、日前可调负荷潜力值分别为10.0392、58.1570万kW,从行业来看,设备制造行业占比最高,30分钟内可调负荷、日前可调负荷占比分别达75.4%、65.1%。研究结论可为电力公司有针对性地开展需求侧管理工作提供支撑,也可为政府制定需求响应、有序用电等需求侧管理政策提供参考依据。     

Effects of demand side management on Chinese household electricity consumption: Empirical findings from Chinese household survey

China’s residential electricity demand has grown rapidly over the last three decades and given the expected continued growth, demand side management (DSM) can play an important role in reducing electricity demand. By using micro-level data collected from 1450 households in 27 provinces in the first-ever China Residential Energy Consumption Survey in 2012, this study estimates the effects of three DSM measures empirically: tiered household electricity pricing, China Energy Label program, and information feedback mechanisms. We find these measures have contributed to moderating residential electricity demand growth but additional policy reform and tools are needed to increase their effectiveness and impact. Residential electricity demand is found to be price- and income- inelastic and tiered pricing alone may not be as effective in electricity conservation. The statistically significant relationship between China Energy Label efficient refrigerators - but not televisions - and lowered residential electricity consumption reflect mixed program effectiveness. Lastly, of the information feedback currently available through electricity bills, payment frequency and meters, only meter reader is estimated to be statistically significant. Important policy implications and recommendations for improving each of these three DSM measures to expand their impact on reducing residential electricity consumption are identified.     

户用秸秆气化炉使用调查与分析

秸秆气化技术的应用对于提高农民生活质量、改善生态环境、减少化石能源消耗有着十分重要的意义。通过对户用秸秆气化炉和半气化炉的使用调查和试验,研究和分析了其安全性、可行性、经济性和适应性,为秸秆气化炉和半气化炉在农村的推广应用提供参考。     

聚合商模式下电动汽车消纳风电研究

电动汽车协同新能源共同规划为新能源的充分利用带来新机遇。文章研究了聚合商模式下的电动汽车消纳弃风的调度策略;设计了聚合商、电动汽车车主、风电场三方共同获利的合作方法;提出了包含电动汽车的可信度和剩余电量的电动汽车可调度潜力评估方法;对参与聚合商充放电控制的电动汽车进行排序,建立了考虑风电出力不确定性的聚合商协同风电场消纳弃风的优化调度模型。该模型以聚合商收益最高为目标函数,在分析购电分时电价、电动汽车充电分时电价的基础上,结合各类基础参数对模型进行求解。文章以上海某区域为研究对象进行算例仿真,验证了所提策略既能使三方获利,又能取得消纳部分弃风和减轻电网负荷高峰的效果。     

Impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on power systems with demand response and wind power

This paper uses a new unit commitment model which can simulate the interactions among plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), wind power, and demand response (DR). Four PHEV charging scenarios are simulated for the Illinois power system: (1) unconstrained charging, (2) 3-hour delayed constrained charging, (3) smart charging, and (4) smart charging with DR. The PHEV charging is assumed to be optimally controlled by the system operator in the latter two scenarios, along with load shifting and shaving enabled by DR programs. The simulation results show that optimally dispatching the PHEV charging load can significantly reduce the total operating cost of the system. With DR programs in place, the operating cost can be further reduced.     

Flexibility in electric power planning: Coping with demand uncertainty

Future electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty facing electric utility system planners. Flexibility offers one way to cope. Making use of the flexibility measure proposed by Hobbs, Honious and Bluestein, we first discuss what factors are of importance for determining flexibility benefits of different utility resources when dealing with demand uncertainty. A multistage stochastic electric utility planning model is then used to compare the flexibility benefits of different electric utility resources for a representative utility, Ontario Hydro. In the absence of acid-gas (i.e. NO_x and SO₂) emission constraints, gas combustion turbines and demand-side management (DSM) were found to offer significant flexibility benefits, while nuclear generation has a large flexibility disbenefit. With acid-gas emission constraints in place, the flexibility benefit of gas combustion turbines is greatly reduced, while those of nuclear, DSM and gas combined-cycle generation all increase. A key finding is that flexibility benefits (or disbenefits) comprise a major portion of the total expected economic benefits of different utility resources in many cases. This result implies that analyses that neglect the effects of demand uncertainty may either dramatically underestimate or overestimate the expected economic benefits of different utility resources.     

Regional electric power demand elasticities of Japan's industrial and commercial sectors

In the assessment and review of regulatory reforms in the electric power market, price elasticity is one of the most important parameters that characterize the market. However, price elasticity has seldom been estimated in Japan; instead, it has been assumed to be as small as 0.1 or 0 without proper examination of the empirical validity of such a priori assumptions. We estimated the regional power demand functions for nine regions, in order to quantify the elasticity, and found the short-run price elasticity to be 0.09–0.30 and the long-run price elasticity to be 0.12–0.56. Inter-regional comparison of our estimation results suggests that price elasticity in rural regions is larger than that in urban regions. Popular assumptions of small elasticity of 0.1, for example, could be suitable for examining Japan's aggregate power demand but not power demand functions that focus on respective regions. Furthermore, assumptions about smaller elasticity values such as 0.01 and 0 could not be supported statistically by this study.     

Non-linear dynamics of electric power losses,electricity consumption,and GDP in Jamaica

We examine the relationship between electric power losses, electric power consumption, and GDP in Jamaica for the period 1971 to 2014 accounting for the non-linear growth in GDP. There are two key findings. First, there are cointegrating relationships between the energy variables and GDP. In the long run, a positive shock to electric power losses has a negative impact on GDP, but one to electric power consumption has a positive impact that peters out over time. Second, in the short run, the growth in the energy variables Granger cause GDP growth. We discuss the implications of these findings.     

电动汽车参与受阻风电消纳的源荷优化控制方法

大规模的电动汽车负荷可增加电网系统的调峰能力,消纳受阻风电。文章首先根据系统负荷和风电出力特性分析其受阻原因;其次,通过对电动汽车充放电特性、可时移特性和SOC模型的分析,建立了电动汽车充放电模型,并提出相应策略;然后,以电动汽车消纳后的风电剩余受阻量最小为目标,建立电动汽车参与受阻风电消纳的源荷优化控制模型,并利用差分进化算法对模型进行求解;最后,以某地区电网实际数据进行仿真计算,验证电动汽车参与受阻风电消纳协调控制的可行性与有效性。     

秸秆焚烧发电项目的技术经济分析

秸秆焚烧发电作为可再生能源利用的一种形式,近来在我国得到大力发展.以典型机组配置的秸秆焚烧发电项目为例进行技术经济分析,指出影响秸秆焚烧发电项目经济的主要因素有两方面:一是原料的收购价格和上网电价,其中上网电价因受国家政策指导,区别不很大,而燃料价格受地域、季节和其他相关因素的影响,价格波动比较明显,这一点投资者应该重点关注;二是锅炉的蒸汽参数,蒸汽参数影响热效率,从而影响发电成本.文中结合国家宏观政策,提出降低发电成本、提高经济效益的有效措施,供秸秆焚烧发电投资者参考借鉴.     

Ultrasonic vibration-assisted pelleting for cellulosic biofuel manufacturing: Investigation on power consumption

Cellulosic ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass is an alternative to petroleum-based transportation fuels. Raw cellulosic biomass has low density, causing high costs in their storage, transportation, and handling. Ultrasonic vibration-assisted (UV-A) pelleting can increase the density of cellulosic biomass. Effects of UV-A pelleting variables on pellet quality (density, durability, stability, and strength) and sugar yield have been reported. However, power consumption in UV-A pelleting has not been fully investigated. This paper presents an experimental investigation on power consumption in UV-A pelleting of wheat straw. Effects of input variables (biomass moisture content, biomass particle size, pelleting pressure, and ultrasonic power) on power consumption are investigated. Results show that power consumption in UV-A pelleting increases as moisture content and particle size decrease, and as pelleting pressure and ultrasonic power increase.