轨道车辆全寿命周期成本分析流程和应用研究

基于国内轨道车辆制造企业逐渐重视面向成本设计(DFC)的全寿命周期成本(LCC)的需求,提出了一种适用于轨道车辆的面向成本设计的全寿命周期成本的分析流程和方法,并以某新能源车辆的贯通道为例,对上述流程进行了实例验证,经过全寿命周期成本的分析(LCCA)、评估及设计优化,将贯通道的全寿命周期成本降低到了相对可控范围内,证明了分析流程和方法切实可行。研究成果对轨道车辆企业进行全寿命周期成本量化分析具有一定的参考价值。     

Product-service system engineering characteristics design for life cycle cost based on constraint satisfaction problem and Bayesian network

A product-service system (PSS) has many engineering characteristics (ECs), their design is a critical work in PSS planning, which has an important influence on the cost and quality of PSS. How to design a reasonable PSS-ECs scheme, and evaluate its life cycle cost (LCC) is a challenging task. Aiming at the PSS-ECs design for LCC, this paper proposes a new PSS design method, it first treats and models the design of PSS-ECs as a customer requirements-based constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) for finding an initial set of satisfied PSS-ECs schemes, and then it evaluates these schemes based on Bayesian network (BN)-based LCC estimation model for finding an optimal scheme as a solution. Constructing a BN describing the uncertain relationships between PSS-ECs and LCC is the core of this research. By combining existing R&D data and expert experience, Bayesian estimation and arithmetic averaging are used to estimate the conditional probability in BN. Take a subway bogie and its maintenance service in a Chinese company as an example to verify the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can effectively solve the problem of PSS-ECs design for LCC, it also shows that this method has positive significance in realizing engineering knowledge consolidation, assisting designers in exploring design space, and improving the rationality of design decisions.     

基于C# .NET的寿命周期费用模型开放式构建技术

寿命周期费用（LCC）模型开放式构建技术是开发LCC分析软件和推广LCC方法的关键之一。结合某项设备寿命周期费用分析软件工程的开发,总结LCC模型开放式构建中所涉及到的关键技术,包括设备树、费用单元树、公式编辑器构建技术等的设计和实现途径,并给出部分关键技术的流程和界面。通过在某软件工程中的应用,所开发的开放式构建技术实现了费用单元与设备相关性设置,费用单元的可裁剪,费用计算模型的可自主构建等功能。所总结的软件开发界面、设计思路和实现流程可以作为同类软件开发的参考。     

输变电设备全寿命周期检修策略的研究及应用

LCC输变电设备技术是一种新型输电技术,未来发展前景广阔。论文详细研究了LCC检修成本控制系统,并对其进行控制模型的建立,得出检修成本随寿命周期变化的关系曲线。检修成本可以分为设备使用初期、使用成熟期、使用后期,根据实际情况,分别对其运用不同的算法进行数学建模。其次,根据某变电站的检修成本,结合以上检修成本数学模型分别对其各个时期进行检修成本计算,通过计算得到的数据得知其LCC的输变电的设备控制检修成本,这样也增强了技术能力,提高了电力企业经济效益,具有极为重要的应用价值。     

产品LCC估算模型研究及仿真分析

产品的全寿命过程包括方案论证、研制、生产、使用维修直到淘汰处理的整个过程,寿命周期费用（LCC）就是指上述各阶段中的费用总和,寿命周期费用的早期估算对于产品的设计、改进和优化,实现最佳的费效比具有重要的意义.该文对产品LCC的常用估算模型进行了分析和探讨,在此基础上实现了对典型武器装备LCC估算的基本仿真平台,可对仿真得出的数据信息建立相应的数据库管理系统,最后针对具体实例进行了验证,并分析、讨论了仿真结果.     

基于设备全生命周期成本的老旧变压器评估

本文以某运行近25年的老旧变电站500kV电力变压器为实例研究了变压器设备的全生命周期成本为实例,基于某该变电站运行多年以来的运行数据,对该站主变的材料、性能、运行工况进行分析,结合20年前生产制造的工艺、水平和技术能力,考虑包括初始投资成本、运行成本、检修维护成本、故障成本以及退役处置成本,对某变电站500kV主变压器的全寿命周期成本进行综合评估,并通过电力变压器对合资品牌以及国产优质品牌2个质量水平的产品进行分析比较,得出了设备购置成本对LCC的控制起到主导作用,在检修维护成本、故障成本以及退役处置成本占比不大的情况下,合资品牌产品较高的设备购置费用不利于成本的控制,国产优质品牌产品的全寿命周期成本相对更优的结论     

基于CAIV 的机械产品设计方案费效权衡优化

针对民用机械产品设计方案选择时,既要考虑客户对产品的功能需求,又要符合企业费用目标约束的问题,采用基于以费用为独立变量(CAIV)的费效权衡优化方法,以混凝土泵车系列产品为研究对象,运用主成分回归和层次分析(AHP)方法分别构建生命周期费用和效能模型,并以费效比为优化目标权衡得到最优方案.研究表明,采用CAIV费效权衡方法选择的设计方案,可以实现产品全生命周期成本目标的有效控制.     

Accuracy and efficiency comparisons of single- and multi-cycled software classification models

Software classification models have been regarded as an essential support tool in performing measurement and analysis processes. Most of the established models are single-cycled in the model usage stage, and thus require the measurement data of all the model’s variables to be simultaneously collected and utilized for classifying an unseen case within only a single decision cycle. Conversely, the multi-cycled model allows the measurement data of all the model’s variables to be gradually collected and utilized for such a classification within more than one decision cycle, and thus intuitively seems to have better classification efficiency but poorer classification accuracy. Software project managers often have difficulties in choosing an appropriate classification model that is better suited to their specific environments and needs. However, this important topic is not adequately explored in software measurement and analysis literature. By using an industrial software measurement dataset of NASA KC2, this paper explores the quantitative performance comparisons of the classification accuracy and efficiency of the discriminant analysis (DA)- and logistic regression (LR)-based single-cycled models and the decision tree (DT)-based (C4.5 and ECHAID algorithms) multi-cycled models. The experimental results suggest that the re-appraisal cost of the Type I MR, the software failure cost of Type II MR and the data collection cost of software measurements should be considered simultaneously when choosing an appropriate classification model.     

A performance evaluation model for FMS based on RAM and LCC using FACTOR/AIM

The objective of this study is to develop a general design and performance evaluation model for the system designers in the initial design phase of the integrated manufacturing system based on the RAM(Reliability, Availability and Maintainability) and life cycle cost(LCC). The methodology proposed in this research includes the following three-step generative approach. First, a deterministic approach to find the optimal system configuration for the initial system configuration is considered under the assumption that the system availability is one(no failure and maintenance), and in second step a stochastic simulation model based on RAM and LCC is developed. Using the results of this two-stage simulation, a system performance index(SPI) was developed for the performance evaluation of the system. In the last step we developed a simulation model using FACTOR/AIM to consider a variety of performance factors and compared the results through a sample example.     

A learning algorithm based estimation method for maintenance cost of product concepts

Life cycle concerns have been realized a major issue of increasing importance. Life cycle cost as analytical method has been developed to enable comprehensive cost analysis to improve economic performance of products during their life cycle. This paper present a learning algorithm based estimation method for maintenance cost as life cycle cost of product concepts. In order to develop the proposed method, we identify some attributes that represent corrective maintainability of product concepts and add them to the product attributes used to make a selection amongst product concepts. From the list of all the product attributes, 24 product attributes strongly correlated with maintenance cost are chosen. To estimate maintenance cost of product concepts, the selected product attributes are used as inputs and maintenance cost are used as outputs in a learning model based on based on artificial neural networks. The proposed approach does not replace the detailed cost estimation but it would give some cost-effective decision making for product concepts.     

A fuzzy-based decision-making method for evaluating product discontinuity at the product transition point

Companies have been striving to achieve product innovation and cost savings to keep up with a rapidly changing manufacturing environment, as well as to deliver new products just in time and earlier than their competitors. Their strategic goals include effective decision making with regard to product life cycles, predicting market demand, and timing new product launches through the optimization of demand and supply of products. However, most products that enter a decline stage experience a decline in sales, which in turn causes an increase in warehouse costs, and a decline in competitiveness, owing to a delay in the release of new products. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy-based decision-making method to effectively evaluate products to be discontinued at the product transition point after taking into account market uncertainties and characteristics of businesses in companies. Therefore, we conduct the matrix analysis and the Pareto analysis for quantitative evaluation of four stages of the product life cycle based on market demand information for target product groups, apply the results of this analysis to the fuzzy-based qualitative evaluation model, and subsequently infer the discontinuity priority for product models that are expected to be replaced by new products. Furthermore, we develop the PTP portfolio system to identify a list of product models to be discontinued, as well as to review their percentage of sales contribution with respect to the overall product sales of the company.     

基于模糊理论与DSW算法的建设项目LCC方案决策

为了克服数据缺失和不确定因素对项目全寿命周期成本评价的影响,将模糊理论引入到项目全寿命周期成本（LCC）的估算评价中。首先根据项目LCC的组成构建计算模型,然后利用三角模糊函数将变量模糊化,并依据Day-Stout-Warren（DSW）算法描点找到LCC模糊函数的变化趋势,最后由MATLAB将离散数据进行最小二乘曲线拟合,并采用等年值法（EAC）对不同寿命周期的成本方案进行评价选优。算例分析表明该方法有很强的数学操作性,明确了成本的估算区间,考虑了决策者的主观性并使方案的决策简单有效。     

基于产品生命周期信息集成的研究

随着计算机水平和信息技术的不断提高，化工企业的各个部门采用了大量的软件和技术来提高各自的自动化水平和工作效率，但是由于各个部门的任务不同而应用不同形式的软件和文档管理，由于数据交换格式不统一，信息模型不一致，在产品生命周期不同阶段之间出现了的“信息孤岛”。针对这种现象，本文采用STEP标准来统一底层产品数据信息，用XML作为高层工艺过程文件交换标准实现数据通信。提出了面向产品生命周期的两层信息集成理论框架。将产品生命周期中各个阶段的产品模型集成在一起，达到数据共享和充分交流，以期实现企业在整个产品生命周期各个阶段的共同协作，实现更低的成本、更高的质量，同时缩短产品开发和生产周期。最后通过实例验证表明该框架的实用性和有效性。     

A simulation framework for technical systems life cycle cost analysis

This paper deals with the construction of a simulation framework for technical systems life cycle cost (LCC) analysis. It also deals with the concept of software reuse in event-based simulation, since the framework involves simulation of all cost generating activities related to a technical system, from its planning and acquisition phases until its final discard. The basic principles of object-oriented programming and simulation software efficiency, reuse, extensibility and evolvability are analyzed and the concepts of computational reflection and frameworks are explored. Finally, the framework is described in detail and its extension points, based on the inheritance mechanism, are shown.     

A study on customer involvement in final assembly for DIY products

The objective of this paper is to investigate the degree of the customer involvement in final assembly (CIFA) in establishing a do-it-yourself (DIY) product design in order to achieve cost minimization of the incumbent firm in a competitive environment. Such a decision-making problem is addressed with consideration of the competitors and the learning curve effect within the three hypothetical stages of a product life cycle (PLC). Accordingly, a Bayesian decision model that incorporates expert opinions with available information is proposed to determine the optimal CIFA ratio for a DIY product. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and sensitivity analyses are also performed in light of the numerical example.     

A step toward STEP-compatible engineering data management: the data models of product structure and engineering changes

In an iterative design process, there is a large amount of engineering data to be processed. Well-managed engineering data can ensure the competitiveness of companies in the competitive market. It has been recognized that a product data model is the basis for establishing engineering database. To fully support the complete product data representation in its life cycle, an international product data representation and exchange standard, STEP, is applied to model the representation of a product. In this paper, the architecture of an engineering data management (EDM) system is described, which consists of an integrated product database. There are six STEP-compatible data models constructed to demonstrate the integratibility of EDM system using common data modeling format. These data models are product definition, product structure, shape representation, engineering change, approval, and production scheduling. These data models are defined according to the integrated resources of STEP/ISO 10303 (Parts 41-44), which support a complete product information representation and a standard data format. Thus, application systems, such as CAD/CAM and MRP systems, can interact with the EDM system by accessing the database based on the STEP data exchange standard.     

Operations and support cost model for new product concept development

Predicting the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a proposed new product during its concept development phase is required for two reasons. First, it is necessary to demonstrate to either a potential customer (e.g. Government financed programs) or to corporate management that the cost of owning the new product and its value to the owner justify further development. Second, LCC is the basis for trade studies between various engineering alternatives that must be made early in the program in order to avoid wasteful research in nonproductive areas.

The most significant portion of LCC is usually the Operating and Support (O&S) cost and yet this is the most difficult cost to predict. Operating and support costs include all costs incurred by their owner between initial purchase and discard or salvage. These costs must be predicted by parametric methods and inflated and/or discounted to their applicable years by means of Engineering Economic Analysis techniques. Separate models must be made for each engineering alternative and the costs converted to a common base (i.e. “now” dollars) for comparison.

Martin Marietta, working under contract to the U.S. Navy's Advanced Antiair warfare Working Group (AAWG), has developed a simple O&S cost model to solve this complex problem. The model consists of a three dimensional matrix using LOTUS 1-2-3 software on an IBM PC or PC compatible computer. The model is flexible and detailed enough to be useful in many diverse applications and simple enough to be exercised quickly and at minimum cost.     

Using VNIR and SWIR field imaging spectroscopy for drought stress monitoring of beech seedlings

Drought stress is expected to become a recurrent problem for central European forests due to regional climate change. In order to study the effects on one of the most common tree species in Germany, the European beech (Fagus sylvatica), young potted beech trees were exposed to drought stress in a controlled experiment and their reaction was observed using visible/near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) field imaging spectroscopy cameras mounted on a platform. Equivalent water thickness (EWT) and leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) were measured and partial least squares (PLS) regression models were trained using these reference measurements and reflectance spectra of the trees. The models were applied to create maps of these properties with a spatial resolution in the millimetre range. These maps can be used to study the spatial distribution of EWT and LCC for single leaves or even for intra-leaf variability. Both properties can be estimated using only the VNIR sensor, but EWT estimation improves considerably by also incorporating SWIR data. LCC estimations with SWIR data alone do not work satisfactorily.     

基于系统动力学的装备LCC控制仿真研究

针对装备全寿命费用研究的实际情况,采用系统动力学方法对装备全寿命费用问题进行分析,建立了装备全寿命费用控制模型,重点研究了装备系统效能与装备科研费用、维修费用、采购费用以及装备的淘汰速率、补充速率等变量之间的关系,通过数值仿真方法确定了各因素之间的定量关系,尤其是变量对装备系统作战效能的定量关系,仿真结果与理论分析相一致,验证了全寿命费用控制模型的可信性,仿真实验表明,采用系统动力学方法对装备全寿命费用控制问题进行研究是一条有效途径。     

An artist life cycle model for digital media content: Strategies for the Light Web and the Dark Web

This paper surveys and categorizes emerging digital media business models. We apply the customer activity cycle of Vandermerwe (2000) to the consumption of digital media, taking three phases into account: pre-consumption, consumption and post-consumption. Our analysis of the business models focuses on their social costs and benefits. We derive the parameters as follows: convenience of use, exposure, ease of compliance and administration. We distinguish two polar environments for digital media: the Dark Web with content created by the masses, and the Light Web with content created by big media. We develop an artist life cycle model in which different business models appear to be optimal at different stages of an artist’s career. Voluntary payment-based models seem to be ideal for newcomers in the Dark Web, while digital rights management-based and complementary product and service-based models are the likely choice of established artists in the Light Web. Established artists might change their approach again, using voluntary payment-based or complementary product and service-based models when they retire.