A model of portfolio optimization using time adapting genetic network programming

This paper describes a decision-making model of dynamic portfolio optimization for adapting to the change of stock prices based on an evolutionary computation method named genetic network programming (GNP). The proposed model, making use of the information from technical indices and candlestick chart, is trained to generate portfolio investment advice. Experimental results on the Japanese stock market show that the decision-making model using time adapting genetic network programming (TA-GNP) method outperforms other traditional models in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. A comprehensive analysis of the results is provided, and it is clarified that the TA-GNP method is effective on the portfolio optimization problem.     

Multi-period portfolio optimization with linear control policies

This paper is concerned with multi-period sequential decision problems for financial asset allocation. A model is proposed in which periodic optimal portfolio adjustments are determined with the objective of minimizing a cumulative risk measure over the investment horizon, while satisfying portfolio diversity constraints at each period and achieving or exceeding a desired terminal expected wealth target. The proposed solution approach is based on a specific affine parameterization of the recourse policy, which allows us to obtain a sub-optimal but exact and explicit problem formulation in terms of a convex quadratic program.In contrast to the mainstream stochastic programming approach to multi-period optimization, which has the drawback of being computationally intractable, the proposed setup leads to optimization problems that can be solved efficiently with currently available convex quadratic programming solvers, enabling the user to effectively attack multi-stage decision problems with many securities and periods.     

A portfolio optimization model with three objectives and discrete variables

We formulate the portfolio selection as a tri-objective optimization problem so as to find tradeoffs between risk, return and the number of securities in the portfolio. Furthermore, quantity and class constraints are introduced into the model in order to limit the proportion of the portfolio invested in assets with common characteristics and to avoid very small holdings. Since the proposed portfolio selection model involves mixed integer decision variables and multiple objectives finding the exact efficient frontier may be very hard. Nevertheless, finding a good approximation of the efficient surface which provides the investor with a diverse set of portfolios capturing all possible tradeoffs between the objectives within limited computational time is usually acceptable. We experiment with the current state of the art evolutionary multiobjective optimization techniques, namely the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm (PESA) and Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2), for solving the mixed-integer multiobjective optimization problem and provide a performance comparison among them using metrics proposed by the community.     

A Stochastic-Goal Mixed-Integer Programming approach for integrated stock and bond portfolio optimization

We consider a Stochastic-Goal Mixed-Integer Programming (SGMIP) approach for an integrated stock and bond portfolio problem. The portfolio model integrates uncertainty in asset prices as well as several important real-world trading constraints. The resulting formulation is a structured large-scale problem that is solved using a model specific algorithm that consists of a decomposition, warm-start, and iterative procedure to minimize constraint violations. We present computational results and portfolio return values in comparison to a market performance measure. For many of the test cases the algorithm produces optimal solutions, where CPU time is improved greatly.     

A robust mean absolute deviation model for portfolio optimization

In this paper we develop a robust model for portfolio optimization. The purpose is to consider parameter uncertainty by controlling the impact of estimation errors on the portfolio strategy performance. We construct a simple robust mean absolute deviation (RMAD) model which leads to a linear program and reduces computational complexity of existing robust portfolio optimization methods. This paper tests the robust strategies on real market data and discusses performance of the robust optimization model empirically based on financial elasticity, standard deviation, and market condition such as growth, steady state, and decline in trend. Our study shows that the proposed robust optimization generally outperforms a nominal mean absolute deviation model. We also suggest precautions against use of robust optimization under certain circumstances.     

Genetic relation algorithm with guided mutation for the large-scale portfolio optimization

The survey of the relevant literatures shows that there have been many studies for portfolio optimization problems and that the number of studies which have investigated the optimum portfolio using evolutionary computation is quite large. But, almost none of these studies deals with genetic relation algorithm (GRA), where GRA is one of the evolutionary methods with graph structure. This study presents an approach to large-scale portfolio optimization problems using GRA with a new operator, called guided mutation. In order to pick up the most efficient portfolio, GRA considers the correlation coefficient between stock brands as strength, which indicates the relation between nodes in each individual of GRA. Guided mutation generates offspring according to the average value of correlation coefficients in each individual, which means to enhance the exploitation ability of evolution of GRA. A genetic relation algorithm with guided mutation (GRA/G) for the portfolio optimization is proposed in this paper. Genetic network programming (GNP), which was proposed in our previous research, is used to validate the performance of the portfolio generated with GRA/G. The results show that GRA/G approach is successful in portfolio optimization.     

基于QPSO算法的单阶段投资组合优化

投资组合优化问题是NP难解问题,通常的方法很难较好地接近全局最优.在经典微粒群算法(PSO)的基础上,研究了基于量子行为的微粒群算法(QPSO)的单阶段投资组合优化方法,具体介绍了依据目标函数如何利用QPSO算法去寻找最优投资组合.在具体应用中,为了提高算法的收敛性和稳定性对算法进行了改进.利用真实历史数据进行验证,结果表明在解决单阶段投资组合优化问题时,基于QPSO算法的投资组合优化的性能比PSO算法更加优越,且QPSO算法在投资组合优化领域具有很大的实际应用价值.     

Asset portfolio optimization using fuzzy mathematical programming

By morphing mean-variance optimization (MVO) portfolio model into semi-absolute deviation (SAD) model, we apply multi criteria decision making (MCDM) via fuzzy mathematical programming to develop comprehensive models of asset portfolio optimization (APO) for the investors’ pursuing either of the aggressive or conservative strategies.     

基于微分进化算法的多阶段投资组合优化

投资组合优化问题就是决定每个具有特定风险和回报的投资资产在总投资价值中的分配比例。在不断变化的金融市场中,多阶段投资组合优化就是通过周期性重新平衡投资资产比例管理投资组合以达到投资风险最小或投资回报最大。研究了基于微分进化算法在多阶段投资组合优化中制定投资决策的方法,目标函数是最大化个人经济效益或最大化周期结束时个人财富。通过比较用微分进化算法和遗传算法(GA)优化同样的资产对象所得到的期望收益率均值与方差,该文所提出的方法的优越性被美国标准普尔指数100的不同股票和现金分配优化所证实。     

Economic optimization using model predictive control with a terminal cost

In the standard model predictive control implementation, first a steady-state optimization yields the equilibrium point with minimal economic cost. Then, the deviation from the computed best steady state is chosen as the stage cost for the dynamic regulation problem. The computed best equilibrium point may not be the global minimum of the economic cost, and hence, choosing the economic cost as the stage cost for the dynamic regulation problem, rather than the deviation from the best steady state, offers potential for improving the economic performance of the system. It has been previously shown that the existing framework for MPC stability analysis, which addresses to the standard class of problems with a regulation objective, does not extend to economic MPC. Previous work on economic MPC developed new tools for stability analysis and identified sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability. These tools were developed for the terminal constraint MPC formulation, in which the system is stabilized by forcing the state to the best equilibrium point at the end of the horizon. In this work, we relax this constraint by imposing a region constraint on the terminal state instead of a point constraint, and adding a penalty on the terminal state to the regulator cost. We extend the stability analysis tools, developed for terminal constraint economic MPC, to the proposed formulation and establish that strict dissipativity is sufficient for guaranteeing asymptotic stability of the closed-loop system. We also show that the average closed-loop performance outperforms the best steady-state performance. For implementing the proposed formulation, a rigorous analysis for computing the appropriate terminal penalty and the terminal region is presented. A further extension, in which the terminal constraint is completely removed by modifying the regulator cost function, is also presented along with its stability analysis. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the differences between the terminal constraint and the proposed terminal penalty formulation.     

Sparse portfolio rebalancing model based on inverse optimization

This paper considers a sparse portfolio rebalancing problem in which rebalancing portfolios with minimum number of assets are sought. This problem is motivated by the need to understand whether the initial portfolio is worthwhile to adjust or not, inducing sparsity on the selected rebalancing portfolio to reduce transaction costs (TCs), out-of-sample performance and small changes in portfolio. We propose a sparse portfolio rebalancing model by adding an l₁ penalty item into the objective function of a general portfolio rebalancing model. In this way, the model is sparse with low TCs and can decide whether and which assets to adjust based on inverse optimization. Numerical tests on four typical data sets show that the optimal adjustment given by the proposed sparse portfolio rebalancing model has the advantage of sparsity and better out-of-sample performance than the general portfolio rebalancing model.     

Nonlinear model predictive control using deterministic global optimization

This paper presents a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) algorithm utilizing a deterministic global optimization method. Utilizing local techniques on nonlinear nonconvex problems leaves one susceptible to suboptimal solutions at each iteration. In complex problems, local solver reliability is difficult to predict and dependent upon the choice of initial guess. This paper demonstrates the application of a deterministic global solution technique to an example NMPC problem. A terminal state constraint is used in the example case study. In some cases the local solution method becomes infeasible, while the global solution correctly finds the feasible global solution. Increased computational burden is the most significant limitation for global optimization based online control techniques. This paper provides methods for improving the global optimization rates of convergence. This paper also shows that globally optimal NMPC methods can provide benefits over local techniques and can successfully be used for online control.     

Nadir compromise programming: A model for optimization of multi-objective portfolio problem

In problem of portfolio selection, financial Decision Makers (DMs) explain objectives and investment purposes in the frame of multi-objective mathematic problems which are more consistent with decision making realities. At present, various methods have introduced to optimize such problems. One of the optimization methods is the Compromise Programming (CP) method. Considering increasing importance of investment in financial portfolios, we propose a new method, called Nadir Compromising Programming (NCP) by expanding a CP-based method for optimization of multi-objective problems. In order to illustrate NCP performance and operational capability, we implement a case study by selecting a portfolio with 35 stock indices of Iran stock market. Results of comparing the CP method and proposed method under the same conditions indicate that NCP method results are more consistent with DM purposes.     

基于GNP的多Agent角色分配问题研究

针对一个需要Agent之间相互协作的多Agent角色分配问题,研究采取了一种GNP的模型结构来解决。GNP是GP的改进,GP是树型结构,而GNP是网络结构。文中首先分别描述了GP与GNP的模型结构和对应算法,然后通过使用负载传输问题来对比分析GNP与GP的性能,并通过计算机仿真负载传输问题中的基于能力的Agent角色分配问题类型,证实了GNP的有效性。     

A disturbance model for control/structure optimization with output feedback control

This paper deals with a technique for the integrated optimization of structure and control in the design of flexible systems. The current approach uses the concept of response to dynamic constraints to establish a concise variational methodology to total system optimization, and eliminates the need to specify rather arbitrary trade-offs between control energy and structural mass. Results give an explicit dependency between structural stiffness (hence mass), disturbance magnitude, available control energy, and deflection constraints. The current paper presents results for direct output feedback and dynamic filter compensation with optional positive real constraints on the filters. The key element of the design approach is to formulate a set of response constraints that bound the allowable deflections and a set of constraints that bound the allowable control energy. The results for model structures indicate the importance of the control-structure interaction in a light-weight structure and the trade-offs between controller complexity, energy and structural mass.     

Reduced order optimization for model predictive control using principal control moves

In order to reduce the computational complexity of model predictive control (MPC) a proper input signal parametrization is proposed in this paper which significantly reduces the number of decision variables. This parametrization can be based on either measured data from closed-loop operation or simulation data. The snapshots of representative time domain data for all manipulated variables are projected on an orthonormal basis by a Karhunen-Loeve transformation. These significant features (termed principal control moves, PCM) can be reduced utilizing an analytic criterion for performance degradation. Furthermore, a stability analysis of the proposed method is given. Considerations on the identification of the PCM are made and another criterion is given for a sufficient selection of PCM. It is shown by an example of an industrial drying process that a strong reduction in the order of the optimization is possible while retaining a high performance level.     

Multi-period portfolio selection using kernel-based control policy with dimensionality reduction

This paper studies a nonlinear control policy for multi-period investment. The nonlinear strategy we implement is categorized as a kernel method, but solving large-scale instances of the resulting optimization problem in a direct manner is computationally intractable in the literature. In order to overcome this difficulty, we employ a dimensionality reduction technique which is often used in principal component analysis. Numerical experiments show that our strategy works not only to reduce the computation time, but also to improve out-of-sample investment performance.     

A generalized multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization with Markov switching parameters

In this paper, we deal with a generalized multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem with market parameters subject to Markov random regime switchings. Problems of this kind have been recently considered in the literature for control over bankruptcy, for cases in which there are no jumps in market parameters (see [Zhu, S. S., Li, D., & Wang, S. Y. (2004). Risk control over bankruptcy in dynamic portfolio selection: A generalized mean variance formulation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 49, 447-457]). We present necessary and sufficient conditions for obtaining an optimal control policy for this Markovian generalized multi-period mean-variance problem, based on a set of interconnected Riccati difference equations, and on a set of other recursive equations. Some closed formulas are also derived for two special cases, extending some previous results in the literature. We apply the results to a numerical example with real data for risk control over bankruptcy in a dynamic portfolio selection problem with Markov jumps selection problem.     

A fuzzy modeling for fuzzy portfolio optimization

Conventional portfolio optimization models have an assumption that the future condition of stock market can be accurately predicted by historical data. However, no matter how accurate the past data is, this premise will not exist in the financial market due to the high volatility of market environment. This paper discusses the fuzzy portfolio optimization problem where the asset returns are represented by fuzzy data. A mean-absolute deviation risk function model and Zadeh’s extension principle are utilized for the solution method of portfolio optimization problem with fuzzy returns. Since the parameters are fuzzy numbers, the gain of return is a fuzzy number as well. A pair of two-level mathematical programs is formulated to calculate the upper bound and lower bound of the return of the portfolio optimization problem. Based on the duality theorem and by applying the variable transformation technique, the pair of two-level mathematical programs is transformed into a pair of ordinary one-level linear programs so they can be manipulated. It is found that the calculated results conform to an essential idea in finance and economics that the greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. An example, which utilizes the data from Taiwan stock exchange corporation, illustrates the whole idea on fuzzy portfolio optimization problem.     

A graph-based evolutionary algorithm: Genetic Network Programming (GNP) and its extension using reinforcement learning

This paper proposes a graph-based evolutionary algorithm called Genetic Network Programming (GNP). Our goal is to develop GNP, which can deal with dynamic environments efficiently and effectively, based on the distinguished expression ability of the graph (network) structure. The characteristics of GNP are as follows. 1) GNP programs are composed of a number of nodes which execute simple judgment/processing, and these nodes are connected by directed links to each other. 2) The graph structure enables GNP to re-use nodes, thus the structure can be very compact. 3) The node transition of GNP is executed according to its node connections without any terminal nodes, thus the past history of the node transition affects the current node to be used and this characteristic works as an implicit memory function. These structural characteristics are useful for dealing with dynamic environments. Furthermore, we propose an extended algorithm, "GNP with Reinforcement Learning (GNPRL)" which combines evolution and reinforcement learning in order to create effective graph structures and obtain better results in dynamic environments. In this paper, we applied GNP to the problem of determining agents' behavior to evaluate its effectiveness. Tileworld was used as the simulation environment. The results show some advantages for GNP over conventional methods.