基于遗传算法选优的集成手段与时序卷积网络的涡扇发动机剩余寿命预测

涡扇发动机作为航空航天领域的核心设备之一，其健康状况决定了航空器能否稳定可靠地运行。而对涡扇发动机的剩余寿命（RUL）进行判断，是设备监测与维护的重要一环。针对涡扇发动机监测过程中存在的工况复杂、监测数据多样、时间跨度长等特点，提出了一种遗传算法优选时序卷积网络（TCN）基模型的集成方法（GASEN-TCN）的涡扇发动机剩余寿命预测模型。首先，利用TCN捕获长跨度下的数据内在关系，从而对RUL作出预测；然后，应用GASEN集成多个独立的TCN，以增强模型的泛化性能；最后，在通用的商用模块化航空推进系统模拟模型（C-MAPSS）数据集上，对所提模型与当下流行的机器学习方法和其他的深度神经网络进行了比较。实验结果表明，在多种不同的运行模式和故障条件下，与流行的双向长短期记忆（Bi-LSTM）网络相比，所提模型都有着更高的预测准确率与更低的预测误差。以FD001数据集为例，在该数据集上所提模型的均方根误差（RMSE）相较Bi-LSTM低17.08%，相对准确率（Accuracy）相较Bi-LSTM高12.16%。所提模型在设备的智能检修与维护方面有着较好的应用前景。     

基于优化混合模型的航空发动机剩余寿命预测方法

针对航空发动机剩余使用寿命（RUL）预测方法没有同时加权不同时间步下的数据,包括原始数据和所提取的特征,导致RUL预测准确性较低的问题,提出了一种基于优化混合模型的RUL预测方法。首先,选用三种不同的路径提取特征：1）将原始数据的均值和趋势系数输入至全连接网络;2）将原始数据输入双向长短期记忆（Bi-LSTM）网络,并采用注意力机制处理得到的特征;3）使用注意力机制处理原始数据,并将加权特征输入至卷积神经网络（CNN）和Bi-LSTM网络中。然后,采用融合多路径特征预测的思想,将上述提取到的特征融合后输入至全连接网络获得RUL预测结果。最后,使用商用模块化航空推进系统仿真（C-MAPSS）数据集验证方法的有效性。实验结果显示,所提方法在4个数据集上均有较好的表现。以FD001数据集为例,所提方法的均方根误差（RMSE）比Bi-LSTM网络降低了9.01%。     

基于特征重叠与集成学习的涡扇发动机剩余寿命预测

涡扇发动机的整个生命周期在恒定的退化模式中，对其进行健康管理和剩余使用寿命预测具有重要意义。在发动机设备发生退化恒定故障中，为保证长期有效可靠性维护需要，该文基于机器学习与深度学习对涡扇发动机进行寿命预测，采用梯度提升决策树与随机森林模型对涡扇发动机特征进行重要性排序并建立Stacking集成学习模型，同时采用双向长短时记忆网络（BiLSTM）模型进行涡扇发动机寿命预测。结果表明，使用特征重叠后的Stacking算法模型表现优异，均方根误差（RMSE）较低，拟合优度约0.96，在涡扇发动机寿命预测方面表现良好。     

基于并行双向时间卷积网络和双向长短期记忆网络的轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法

在基于深度学习的轴承剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测方法中,时间卷积网络(TCN)忽略了振动数据中未来时间信息的重要性,长短期记忆网络(LSTM)难以有效地学习振动数据的长时间序列特征.针对以上问题,提出一种基于并行双向时间卷积网络(Bi-TCN)和双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM)的轴承RUL预测方法.首先,对多传感器数据进行归一化处理,并将每个传感器数据进行通道合并,实现多传感器数据的高效融合;然后,采用Bi-TCN和Bi-LSTM构建并行的双分支特征学习网络,其中Bi-TCN提取数据的双向长时间序列特征, Bi-LSTM提取数据的时间相关特征;同时,设计一种特征融合注意力机制,该机制分别计算Bi-TCN和Bi-LSTM的输出权重,以实现两种网络输出特征的自适应加权融合;最后,融合特征通过全连接层并输出轴承RUL的预测结果.利用西安交通大学轴承数据集和PHM 2012轴承数据集进行RUL预测实验,实验结果表明,与其他先进的预测方法相比,所提出方法可以准确预测更多类型轴承的RUL,同时具有更低的预测误差.     

基于自注意力长短期记忆网络的Web软件系统实时剩余寿命预测方法

为了能够实时准确对Web软件系统的剩余使用寿命（RUL）进行预测,考虑Web系统健康状态性能指标的时序特性和指标间的相互依赖特性,提出了一种基于自注意力长短期记忆（Self-Attention-LSTM）网络的Web软件系统实时剩余寿命预测方法。首先,搭建加速寿命测试实验平台来收集反映Web软件系统老化趋势的性能指标数据;然后,根据该性能指标数据的时序特性来构建长短期记忆（LSTM）循环神经网络以提取性能指标的隐含层特征,并使用自注意力机制建模特征间的依赖关系;最后,得到系统RUL的实时预测值。在三组测试集上,把所提模型与反向传播（BP）网络和常规的循环神经网络（RNN）做了对比。实验结果表明,所提模型的平均绝对误差（MAE）比长短期记忆（LSTM）网络平均低16.92%,相对准确率（Accuracy）比LSTM网络平均高5.53%,验证了Self-Attention-LSTM网络剩余寿命预测模型的有效性。可见所提方法能为优化系统抗衰决策提供技术支撑。     

基于改进CNN-LSTM的飞控系统剩余寿命预测

数据驱动的剩余寿命（remaining useful life,RUL）预测是复杂系统健康管理的重点研究内容,然而数据集的缺乏制约了不同系统上RUL预测的研究。针对这一问题,以飞控系统为例,提出一种仿真模型和数据混合驱动的RUL预测方法。该方法通过模型仿真提供充足的故障数据,并结合改进CNN-LSTM网络实现高质量的故障信息提取。首先对系统及其故障模式建立仿真模型,利用蒙特卡罗方法生成随机故障时间序列并依次注入故障,根据仿真响应和失效阈值确定序列的寿命标签,即可生成包含多组随机序列的系统失效数据集;其次利用长短时记忆网络（long short-term memory,LSTM）提取系统状态参数时间序列的故障信息,结合一维卷积神经网络（1D-CNN）提取不同状态参数之间的关联特征,从而形成时序-空间相结合的剩余寿命预测网络。充分的实验结果证明了所提方法对不同系统均能帮助达到动态和准确的剩余寿命预测。     

基于动作周期退化相似性度量的机械轴健康指标构建与剩余寿命预测

针对工业机器人机械轴健康管理中检测效率和精准度较低的问题,提出了一种机械轴运行监控大数据背景下的基于动作周期退化相似性度量的健康指标（HI）构建方法,并结合长短时记忆（LSTM）网络进行机器人剩余寿命（RUL）的自动预测。首先,利用MPdist关注机械轴不同动作周期之间子周期序列相似性的特点,并计算正常周期数据与退化周期数据之间的偏离程度,进而构建HI;然后,利用HI集训练LSTM网络模型并建立HI与RUL之间的映射关系;最后,通过MPdist-LSTM混合模型自动计算RUL并适时预警。使用某公司六轴工业机器人进行实验,采集了加速老化数据约1 500万条,对HI单调性、鲁棒性和趋势性以及RUL预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）、均方根误差（RMSE）、决定系数（R^{\mathrm{2}}）、误差区间（ER）、早预测（EP）和晚预测（LP）等指标进行了实验测试,将该方法分别与动态时间规整（DTW）、欧氏距离（ED）、时域特征值（TDE）结合LSTM的方法,MPdist结合循环神经网络（RNN）和LSTM等方法进行比较。实验结果表明,相较于其他对比方法,所提方法所构建HI的单调性和趋势性分别至少提高了0.07和0.13,RUL预测准确率更高,ER更小,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于胶囊神经网络的涡扇发动机故障诊断方法

针对航空涡扇发动机数据集故障分类准确率较低的问题,提出一种基于胶囊神经网络的涡扇发动机故障诊断方法。首先确定故障类型和关键变量,然后构建卷积胶囊神经网络模型,将分割的训练集数据输入模型进行训练,最后利用诊断模型诊断测试集数据并计算分类识别准确率。将所提算法在NASA涡扇发动机数据集上进行测试,证明了该模型的分类识别准确率有所提高,可为涡扇发动机的故障诊断提供帮助。     

基于可自动扩展的LSTM模型的航空发动机剩余寿命预测方法

对航空发动机进行实时状态监测和健康管理可以有效降低发动机故障风险,确保飞机飞行安全。准确预测航空发动机的剩余寿命是有效监测发动机运行状态的一种重要手段,其中长短期记忆（long-short term memory,LSTM）网络常被使用。但由于航空发动机复杂的机械结构与运行模式,使用传统的LSTM网络对航空发动机的剩余寿命进行单次预测后,所得预测结果的准确率不足以满足其寿命预测的精度要求。基于LSTM网络的广泛使用以及它对时间序列数据的有效预测能力,考虑到采用多级预测的方法能够有效降低预测误差,提出了一种新型的可自动扩展的长短期记忆（automatically expandable LSTM,AELSTM）预测模型。AELSTM模型依托多个子模块逐级连接的网络结构,不断地提取前一级模块的输出误差作为后一级模块的训练值,形成了误差的多级预测机制,有效降低了模型的预测误差,提升了预测结果的准确性。基于美国国家航空航天局发布的C-MAPSS数据集的四个子集对AELSTM模型的预测效果进行了测试,实验结果表明,与传统的LSTM网络相比,AELSTM模型在四个子集上的均方根误差平均减少了95.44%,同时它的预测效果也优于现有的一些先进算法。实验充分验证了AELSTM模型在提升航空发动机剩余寿命预测准确度方面的有效性及优势。     

大数据下数模联动的随机退化设备剩余寿命预测技术

面向大数据背景下随机退化设备剩余寿命(Remaining useful life, RUL)预测的现实需求,结合随机退化设备监测大数据特点及剩余寿命预测不确定性量化这一核心问题,深入分析了机理模型与数据混合驱动的剩余寿命预测技术、基于机器学习的剩余寿命预测技术、统计数据驱动的剩余寿命预测技术以及机器学习和统计数据驱动相结合的剩余寿命预测技术的基本研究思想和发展动态,剖析了当前研究存在的局限性和共性难题.针对存在的局限性和共性难题,以多源传感监测大数据下剩余寿命预测问题为例,提出了一种数模联动的大数据下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测解决思路,并通过航空发动机多源监测数据初步验证了该思路的可行性和有效性.最后,借鉴数模联动思路,综合考虑机器学习方法和统计数据驱动方法的优势,紧紧扭住大数据背景下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测不确定性量化问题,提出了大数据背景下深度学习与随机退化建模交互联动、监测大数据与剩余寿命及其预测不确定性映射机制、非理想大数据下的剩余寿命预测等亟待解决的关键科学问题.     

A multi-head neural network with unsymmetrical constraints for remaining useful life prediction

This paper proposes a multi-head neural network (MHNN) model with unsymmetrical constraints for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of industrial equipment. Generally, the existing deep learning methods proposed for RUL prediction utilize symmetrical constraint loss functions such as the mean squared error function to calculate training errors. However, if the predicted RUL is much larger than the actual value in some safety–critical applications, severe damage may occur. To address this issue, an unsymmetrical constraint function is proposed as the loss function in this work that penalizes the late predictions (i.e., the predicted RUL is larger than the actual RUL) more strongly. In addition, an adjustable parameter is added to this function to adjust the model’s attention to the late predictions. In MHNN model, the bidirectional gated recurrent units (BGRU) and self-attention mechanism are employed to extract temporal features from the condition monitoring data. In addition, the structure of the multi-head neural network is adopted in the proposed model, helping to capture more degradation information by means of multiple identical and parallel networks. The proposed method is validated against a commonly used turbofan engine dataset. Compared with other latest methods on the same dataset, the proposed method is proven to be superior. Taking the FD004 dataset as an example, the score obtained by MHNN is 24.09% lower than that obtained by the best existing method.     

Anomaly monitoring improves remaining useful life estimation of industrial machinery

Estimating remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial machinery based on their degradation data is very critical for various industries. Machine learning models are powerful and very popular tools for predicting time to failure of such industrial machinery. However, RUL is ill-defined during healthy operation. This paper proposes to use anomaly monitoring during both RUL estimator training and deployment to tackle with this problem. In this approach, raw sensor data is monitored and when a statistically significant change is detected, it is taken as the degradation onset point and a data-driven RUL estimation model is triggered. Initial results with a simple anomaly detector, suited for non-varying operating conditions, and multiple RUL estimation models showed that the anomaly triggered RUL estimation scheme enhances the estimation accuracy, on in-house simulation and benchmark C-MAPSS turbofan engine degradation data. The scheme can be employed to varying operating conditions with a suitable anomaly detector.     

基于并联CNN-SE-Bi-LSTM的轴承剩余使用寿命预测

滚动轴承作为一种机械标准件,广泛应用于各类旋转机械设备,其健康状况对机器设备的正常运行至关重要,掌握其剩余使用寿命(RUL)可以更好地保证生产活动安全有效的进行.针对目前基于深度学习的机器RUL预测方法普遍存在:a)预测性能很大程度依赖手工特征设计;b)模型不能够充分提取数据中的有用特征;c)学习过程中没有明确考虑多传感器数据等缺点,提出了一种新的深度预测网络——并联多个带有压缩激励机制的卷积神经网络和双向长短期记忆网络集成网络(CNN-SE-Bi-LSTM),用于设备的RUL预测.在该预测网络中,不同传感器采集的监测数据直接作为预测网络的输入.然后,在改进的压缩激励卷积网络(CNN-SE-Net)提取空间特征的基础上进一步通过双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM)提取时序特征,建立起多个独立的可以自动从输入数据中学习高级表示的RU L预测模型分支.最后,将各独立分支学习到的特征通过全连接层并联获得最终的RU L预测模型.通过滚动轴承加速退化实验的数据,验证了所提网络的有效性并与现有的一些改进算法进行了对比实验.结果表明,面对原始多传感器数据,该算法能够自适应地提供准确的RU L预测结果,且预测表现优于现有一些预测方法.     

Remaining useful life prediction using prognostic methodology based on logical analysis of data and Kaplan–Meier estimation

Most of the reported prognostic techniques use a small number of condition indicators and/or use a thresholding strategies in order to predict the remaining useful life (RUL). In this paper, we propose a reliability-based prognostic methodology that uses condition monitoring (CM) data which can deal with any number of condition indicators, without selecting the most significant ones, as many methods propose. Moreover, it does not depend on any thresholding strategies provided by the maintenance experts to separate normal and abnormal values of condition indicators. The proposed prognostic methodology uses both the age and CM data as inputs to estimate the RUL. The key idea behind this methodology is that, it uses Kaplan–Meier as a time-driven estimation technique, and logical analysis of data as an event-driven diagnostic technique to reflect the effect of the operating conditions on the age of the monitored equipment. The performance of the estimated RUL is measured in terms of the difference between the predicted and the actual RUL of the monitored equipment. A comparison between the proposed methodology and one of the common RUL prediction technique; Cox proportional hazard model, is given in this paper. A common dataset in the field of prognostics is employed to evaluate the proposed methodology.     

Multi-task spatio-temporal augmented net for industry equipment remaining useful life prediction

Accurate estimating the machine health indicator is an essential part of industrial intelligence. Despite having considerable progress, remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on deep learning still confronts the following two challenges. Firstly, the length of condition monitoring data obtained from sensors is inconsistent, and the existing fixed window data processing method cannot fully adapt to all individual samples. Secondly, it is challenging to extract local and global features for long-series prediction tasks. To address these issues, this paper proposes a Multi-task Spatio-Temporal Augmented Net(MTSTAN) for industrial RUL prediction, which enhances the local features of different sensors data through channel attention mechanism, and proposes a skip connected causal augmented convolution network to enhance the global feature extraction in time series. For the industrial scenario of inconsistent data lengths, a multi-window multi-task sharing mechanism is set up to capture various time dependencies among different time scales. The robustness and universality of the model are increased by sharing information among tasks and multi-task window mechanism. Finally, a large number of experiments were carried out on the turbofan aircraft engine run-to-failure prognostic benchmark dataset (C-MAPSS) to evaluate the proposed model, and compared with the existing 14 state-of-the-art approaches. The results show that the enhancement of local and global time series features can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The Multi-task learning strategy has excellent applicability in dealing with the problem of inconsistent data length.     

Remaining useful life prediction of bearing based on stacked autoencoder and recurrent neural network

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction play a crucial part in bearing maintenance, which directly affects the production efficiency and safety of equipment. Moreover, the accuracy of the prediction model is constrained by the feature extraction process and full life data of bearings. In this paper, the life prediction method of faulty rolling bearing with limited data is presented including degradation state model and RUL prediction model. In order to obtain health indication (HI) without human interference in the degradation state modeling stage, the bottleneck structure of Stacked Autoencoder (SAE) is utilized to fuse the four selected features into one HI using Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS) bearing dataset as training sample. In RUL prediction model, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is carried out to establish the model with Standard deviation (Std) input and HI training label. In order to solve the problem of large training error caused by insufficient data in the failure stage of bearing acceleration test, the third-order spline curve interpolation is utilized to enhance the data points. Through parameter analysis, the RMSE and MAE of the test set on the prediction model are 0.032582 and 0.024038, respectively. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed method is further validated by dataset from Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) with different bearing fault degrees. The analysis indicates that the RUL prediction of bearing fault data is consistent with the size of artificial added faults, that is,the more severe the fault the shorter the time of remaining life. The results validate that the proposed method can effectively extract the bearing health state by incorporating feature fusion and establish accurately prediction model for bearing remaining life.     

基于改进SAE和双向LSTM的滚动轴承RUL预测方法

针对稀疏自动编码器(Sparse auto encoder, SAE)采用sigmoid激活函数容易造成梯度消失的问题, 用一种新的Tan函数替代原有的sigmoid函数; 针对SAE采用Kullback-Leibler (KL) 散度进行稀疏性约束在回归预测方面的局限性, 以dropout机制替代KL散度实现网络的稀疏性. 利用改进SAE对滚动轴承振动信号进行无监督深层特征自适应提取, 无需人工设计标签进行有监督微调. 同时, 考虑到滚动轴承剩余使用寿命(Remaining useful life, RUL)预测方法一般仅考虑过去信息而忽略未来信息, 引入双向长短时记忆网络(Bi-directional long short-term memory, Bi-LSTM)构建滚动轴承RUL的预测模型. 在2个轴承数据集上的实验结果均表明, 所提基于改进SAE和Bi-LSTM的滚动轴承RUL预测方法不仅可以提高模型的收敛速度而且具有较低的预测误差.