Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

In Brazil, vaccination has always cut across party political and ideological lines, which has delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunization of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination along with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between 10 March 2020 and 27 October 2021. We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 31 657 deaths could have been avoided. In addition, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.     

Estimation of measles vaccine efficacy and critical vaccination coverage in a highly vaccinated population

Measles is a highly infectious disease that has been targeted for elimination from four WHO regions. Whether and under which conditions this goal is feasible is, however, uncertain since outbreaks have been documented in populations with high vaccination coverage (more than 90%). Here, we use the example of a large outbreak in a German public school to show how estimates of key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R₀), vaccine efficacy (VE_S) and critical vaccination coverage (p_c) can be obtained from partially observed outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations. Our analyses rely on Bayesian methods of inference based on the final size distribution of outbreak size, and use data which are easily collected. For the German public school the analyses indicate that the basic reproduction number of measles is higher than previously thought (, 95% credible interval: 23.6–40.4), that the vaccine is highly effective in preventing infection (, 95% credible interval: 0.993–0.999), and that a vaccination coverage in excess of 95 per cent may be necessary to achieve herd immunity (, 95% credible interval: 0.961–0.978). We discuss the implications for measles elimination from highly vaccinated populations.     

Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Since vaccination at levels short of those necessary to achieve eradication may increase the average age of infection, and thus potentially the CRS burden, introduction of the vaccine has been limited to contexts where coverage is high. Recent work suggests that spatial heterogeneity in coverage should also be a focus of concern. Here, we use a detailed dataset from South Africa to explore the implications of heterogeneous vaccination for the burden of CRS, introducing realistic vaccination scenarios based on reported levels of measles vaccine coverage. Our results highlight the potential impact of country-wide reductions of incidence of rubella on the local CRS burdens in districts with small population sizes. However, simulations indicate that if rubella vaccination is introduced with coverage reflecting current estimates for measles coverage in South Africa, the burden of CRS is likely to be reduced overall over a 30 year time horizon by a factor of 3, despite the fact that this coverage is lower than the traditional 80 per cent rule of thumb for vaccine introduction, probably owing to a combination of relatively low birth and transmission rates. We conclude by discussing the likely impact of private-sector vaccination.     

Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger

The current World Health Organization recommendations for response during measles epidemics focus on case management rather than outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns, which may occur too late to impact morbidity and mortality and have a high cost per case prevented. Here, we explore the potential impact of an ORV campaign conducted during the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. We measured the impact of this intervention and also the potential impact of alternative strategies. Using a unique geographical, epidemiologic and demographic dataset collected during the epidemic, we developed an individual-based simulation model. We estimate that a median of 7.6% [4.9-8.9] of cases were potentially averted as a result of the outbreak response, which vaccinated approximately 57% (84563 of an estimated 148600) of children in the target age range (6-59 months), 23 weeks after the epidemic started. We found that intervening early (up to 60 days after the start of the epidemic) and expanding the age range to all children aged 6 months to 15 years may lead to a much larger (up to 90%) reduction in the number of cases in a West African urban setting like Niamey. Our results suggest that intervening earlier even with lower target coverage (approx. 60%), but a wider age range, may be more effective than intervening later with high coverage (more than 90%) in similar settings. This has important implications for the implementation of reactive vaccination interventions as they can be highly effective if the response is fast with respect to the spread of the epidemic.     

Cellular uptake of gold nanoparticles passivated with BSA-SV40 large T antigen conjugates

Internalization and subcellular localization in HeLa cells of gold nanoparticles modified with the SV40 large T antigen were quantified using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Internalization was monitored as a function of incubation time, temperature, nanoparticle diameter, and large T surface coverage. Increasing the amount of large T peptides per gold nanoparticle complex, by either increasing the coverage at constant nanoparticle diameter or by increasing the nanoparticle diameter at constant large T coverage, resulted in more cellular internalization. In addition, nuclear fractionation was performed to quantify nuclear localization of these complexes as a function of large T coverage. In contrast to our prior qualitative investigations of nuclear localization by video-enhanced color differential interference contrast microscopy (VEC-DIC), ICP-OES was able to detect nanoparticles inside fractionated cell nuclei. Although increasing the large T coverage was found to afford higher cell internalization and nuclear targeting, quantitative evaluation of cytotoxicity revealed that higher large T coverages also resulted in greater cytotoxicity. The ICP-OES and nuclear fractionation techniques reported here are valuable tools that can add important quantitative information to optical and electron imaging methods such as VEC-DIC and transmission electron microscopy regarding the fate of nanoparticles in cells.     

Structure-function relationships in high-density docosylsilane bonded stationary phases by Raman spectroscopy and comparison to octadecylsilane bonded stationary phases

Raman spectroscopy is used to investigate the effects of temperature, surface coverage, polymerization method (surface or solution polymerized), and nature of the alkylsilane precursor on alkyl chain conformational order in a series of high-density docosylsilane (C22) stationary phases at surface coverages ranging from 3.61 to 6.97 mumol/m(2). The results of this study contribute to an enhanced understanding of the shape-selective retention characteristics of these phases at a molecular level. Conformational order is evaluated using the intensity ratio of the antisymmetric and symmetric nu(CH2) modes as well as the frequency at which these modes are observed. Alkyl chain order is shown to be dependent on surface coverage, alkyl chain length, and polymerization method. In general, alkyl chain order increases with surface coverage. Temperature-induced changes are observed between 250 and 350 K for the three phases with surface coverages between 3.61 and 4.89 mumol/m(2). These changes occur over a broad range of temperatures characteristic of two-dimensional systems, but in general adhere to the behavior predicted for a simple first-order transition. This change is not believed to be an abrupt cooperative disassociation characteristic of a phase transition in a bulk phase, but instead is thought to involve significant changes in conformational order in segments of the surface-tethered molecules, mostly those segments at the outer edge of the alkylsilane. In contrast to the changes observed in coverages below 5 mumol/m(2), a first-order change is not observed for the stationary phase with coverage of 6.97 mumol/m(2). A molecular picture of the temperature-induced disorder is proposed with disorder originating at the distal carbon and propagating only a short distance toward the proximal carbon. A comparison is made between these C22 stationary phases and similar high-density octadecylsilane (C18) bonded phases.     

A belief-based model for characterizing the spread of awareness and its impacts on individuals' vaccination decisions

During an epidemic, individuals'' decisions on whether or not to take vaccine may affect the dynamics of disease spread and, therefore, the effectiveness of disease control. Empirical studies have shown that such decisions can be subjected to individuals'' awareness about disease and vaccine, such as their perceived disease severity and vaccine safety. The aim of this paper is to gain a better understanding of individuals'' vaccination behaviour by modelling the spread of awareness in a group of socially connected individuals and examining the associated impacts on their vaccination decision-making. In our model, we examine whether or not individuals will get vaccinated as well as when they would. In doing so, we consider three possible decisions from an individual, i.e. to accept, to reject, and yet to decide, and further associate them with a set of belief values. Next, we extend the Dempster–Shafer theory to characterize individuals'' belief value updates and their decision-making, having incorporated the awareness obtained from their connected neighbours. Furthermore, we examine two factors that will affect individuals'' vaccination decisions: (i) reporting rates of disease- and vaccine-related events, and (ii) fading coefficient of awareness spread. By doing so, we can assess the impacts of awareness spread by evaluating the vaccination dynamics in terms of the number of vaccinated individuals. The results have demonstrated that the former influences the ratio of vaccinated individuals, whereas the latter affects the time when individuals decide to take vaccine.     

The Zionist Renaissance and the Development of Israeli Sports Photography

This article outlines the development of sports photography in the Land of Israel, situating it in its cultural and historical background. It characterizes the status of sports photography in the press and its relation with upcoming sports coverage on television; and defines the influence on sports photography in Israel of currents in European photography in general and sports coverage in particular.     

Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control classical swine fever epidemics

In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2 km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1 km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling.     

Au stabilization and coverage of sawtooth facets on Si nanowires grown by vapor-liquid-solid epitaxy

Si nanowires grown in UHV by Au-catalyzed vapor-liquid-solid epitaxy are known to exhibit sidewalls with {112}-type orientation that show faceting. To understand the origin of the faceting, Au induced faceting on Si(112) surfaces was studied in situ by spot-profile-analyzing low-energy electron diffraction. With increasing Au coverage at 750 degrees C, the Si(112) surface undergoes various morphological transformations until, at a critical Au coverage of about 3.1 x 10 (14) atoms/cm (2), a phase consisting of large (111) and (113) facets forms, similar in structure to the nanowire sidewalls. This phase is stable at larger Au coverages in equilibrium with Au droplets. We suggest that Si nanowire surfaces exhibit this structure, and we derive the Au coverage on the two types of facets.     

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India,the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination

The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020–June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0–64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9–75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July–mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.     

Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.     

The effects of age,gender, and crash types on drivers’ injury-related health care costs

There are many studies that evaluate the effects of age, gender, and crash types on crash related injury severity. However, few studies investigate the effects of those crash factors on the crash related health care costs for drivers that are transported to hospital. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between drivers’ age, gender, and the crash types, as well as other crash characteristics (e.g., not wearing a seatbelt, weather condition, and fatigued driving), on the crash related health care costs. The South Carolina Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (SC CODES) from 2005 to 2007 was used to construct six separate hierarchical linear regression models based on drivers’ age and gender. The results suggest that older drivers have higher health care costs than younger drivers and male drivers tend to have higher health care costs than female drivers in the same age group. Overall, single vehicle crashes had the highest health care costs for all drivers. For males older than 64-years old sideswipe crashes are as costly as single vehicle crashes. In general, not wearing a seatbelt, airbag deployment, and speeding were found to be associated with higher health care costs. Distraction-related crashes are more likely to be associated with lower health care costs in most cases. Furthermore this study highlights the value of considering drivers in subgroups, as some factors have different effects on health care costs in different driver groups. Developing an understanding of longer term outcomes of crashes and their characteristics can lead to improvements in vehicle technology, educational materials, and interventions to reduce crash-related health care costs.     

The evolutionary epidemiology of vaccination.

Vaccination leads to dramatic perturbations of the environment of parasite populations and this can have both demographic and evolutionary consequences. We present a theoretical framework for modelling the short- and long-term epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of vaccination. This framework integrates previous theoretical studies of vaccine-induced parasite evolution, and it allows one to make some useful qualitative predictions regarding the outcome of the competition between different types of vaccine-favoured variants. It can also be used to make quantitative predictions about the speed of such evolutionary processes. This work may help define the relevant parameters that need to be measured in specific parasite populations in order to evaluate the potential evolutionary consequences of vaccination. In particular, we argue that more work should be done evaluating the nature and magnitude of parasite fitness costs associated with adaptation to vaccinated hosts.     

Possible existence of a higher coverage quasi-one-dimensional phase of argon adsorbed on bundles of single-walled carbon nanotubes

We present results of Ar adsorption isotherms at very low coverages in the first layer and, beyond monolayer completion, on bundles of close-ended single-walled carbon nanotubes. The low coverage results were used to determine the isosteric heat of adsorption and the binding energy of Ar in the groove sites in the first layer. The higher coverage results show evidence of the possible formation of a second-layer groove phase, beyond monolayer completion. Our results for higher coverages are compared with recent computer simulations for this system.     

Game-theory approach for multi-objective optimal design of stationary flat-plate solar collectors

A game-theory approach has been used for the multi-objective optimum design of stationary flat-plate solar collectors. The clear-day solar-beam radiation and diffuse radiation at the location of the solar collector (Miami) are estimated. Three objectives are considered in the optimization-problem formulation: maximization of the annual average incident solar energy; maximization of the lowest month incident solar energy; and minimization of costs. The game-theory methodology is used for the solution of the three objective-constrained optimization problems to find a balanced solution. This solution represents the best compromise in terms of the super-criterion selected. Two types of sensitivity analyses are conducted on the optimum solution in this work. The sensitivity analysis with respect to the design variables indicates which design valuables are more important to different objective functions. The sensitivity analysis with respect to the solar constant shows that small fluctuations of solar constant experienced in practice affect the various objectives very little, thereby indicating that the mathematical model is robust. This work represents the first work aimed at the application of multi-objective optimization strategy, particularly the game theory approach, for the solution of the solar collector design problem.     

A mixed generalized ordered response model for examining pedestrian and bicyclist injury severity level in traffic crashes

This paper proposes an econometric structure for injury severity analysis at the level of individual accidents that recognizes the ordinal nature of the categories in which injury severity are recorded, while also allowing flexibility in capturing the effects of explanatory variables on each ordinal category and allowing heterogeneity in the effects of contributing factors due to the moderating influence of unobserved factors. The model developed here, referred to as the mixed generalized ordered response logit (MGORL) model, generalizes the standard ordered response models used in the extant literature for injury severity analysis. To our knowledge, this is the first such formulation to be proposed and applied in the econometric literature in general, and in the safety analysis literature in particular.

The MGORL model is applied to examine non-motorist injury severity in accidents in the USA, using the 2004 General Estimates System (GES) database. The empirical findings emphasize the inconsistent results obtained from the standard ordered response model. An important policy result from our analysis is that the general pattern and relative magnitude of elasticity effects of injury severity determinants are similar for pedestrians and bicyclists. The analysis also suggests that the most important variables influencing non-motorist injury severity are the age of the individual (the elderly are more injury-prone), the speed limit on the roadway (higher speed limits lead to higher injury severity levels), location of crashes (those at signalized intersections are less severe than those elsewhere), and time-of-day (darker periods lead to higher injury severity).     

关于弹药包装箱密封试验要求的选择

指出了对于小容积的弹药包装箱采用陆军要求试验 ,对于大容积的弹药包装箱采用空军要求试验。该方法既能保证试验顺利进行 ,又不致于增加费用。     

3He on MgO: Nuclear magnetic relaxation properties

Using MgO powder as a substrate, the magnetic relaxation of ³He and adsorption isotherms of ³He and Kr have been measured. Relaxation data as a function of coverage were obtained at temperatures of 2.0,2.7, 3.5, and 4.2 K, and as a function of temperature at coverages of x = 0.84 and 1.0 monolayer. The Kr isotherms show steplike features whose size increases following an extended bakeout at 950 C under vacuum. This is interpreted as indicating that the MgO surface consists of a mixture of uniform and nonuniform regions. Extended heating increases the fraction of the total surface area that is uniform. The values of T ₂vs. coverage at T = 2 and 2.7 K are found to change from being roughly coverage independent to decreasing as x ^–3 at a coverage of x – 0.9, indicating a decrease in film mobility. At 3.5 and 4.2 K an approximately constant T ₂is found at all coverages with no evidence of a sudden change of mobility. The low-temperature T ₂data continue to decrease as the second layer forms, implying a low mobility for small second-layer coverages. On the basis of the relatively short values obtained for T ₁ it is concluded that a relaxation mechanism in addition to dipolar coupling is present.Supported by NSF and Research Corporation.     

The Phase of Submonolayer 4He Films Near Monolayer Completion

We study the state of ⁴He films physisorbed to general Lennard–Jones type substrates at coverages near monolayer completion as a function of the range C₃ and well-depth D of the substrate-helium potential. By examining the liquid-state energetics as well as the coverage dependence of the third sound speed and roton energies in the two-parameter space (C₃,D), we can estimate the position of the boundary between those strongly interacting substrates wherein the ⁴He film essentially forms a quasi two-dimensional solid prior to second layer formation and weaker interacting substrates for which the ⁴He film remains mobile and superfluid. Our approach utilizes a combination of information from both variational calculations and also correlated basis function theory to examine in detail the excitation structure in the monolayer liquid as a function of film coverage and substrate potential.