A novel approach to determine transmission reliability margin using parametric bootstrap technique

The determination of available transfer capability (ATC) must accommodate a reasonable range of transmission reliability margin (TRM) so that the transmission network is secure from uncertainty that may occur during a power transfer. This paper presents a computationally accurate method in determining the TRM with large amount of uncertainty using the parametric bootstrap technique. The parametric bootstrap technique is used to randomly generate a bootstrap sample of system operating condition with large uncertainty selected at a certain percentage of bootstrap confidence interval. The bootstrap sample is used in the determination of TRM at every time interval. Then, a new value of ATC at the current time interval is calculated by considering the TRM at the same time interval. The effectiveness of the proposed TRM method in providing new ATC value is validated on the Malaysian power system. The results have shown that the proposed method provides accurate estimation of TRM in which it is relatively similar to the TRM result obtained by the standard deviation of uncertainty which is incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Further comparisons have been made in terms of accuracy and total time computation in order to verify the robustness of parametric bootstrap in determining the TRM as compared to the non-parametric bootstrap technique.     

Assessment of available transfer capability of transmission systems

The available transfer capability (ATC) of a transmission system is a measure of unutilized capability of the system at a given time and depends on a number of factors such as the system generation dispatch, system load level, load distribution in the network, power transfers between areas, network topology, and the limits imposed on the transmission network due to thermal, voltage and stability considerations. This paper describes a method for determining the ATC between any two locations in a transmission system (single-area or multiarea) under a given set of system operating conditions. The method also provides ATCs for selected transmission paths between the two locations in the system and identifies the most limiting facilities in determining the network's ATC. In addition, the method can be used to compute multiple ATCs between more than one pair of locations. The proposed method is illustrated using the IEEE reliability test system (RTS)     

基于主从递阶决策模型的TRM评估

市场化环境下的电能交易可能引起系统潮流的频繁变化,系统运行不确定性增大,支路过负荷、节点电压越限等故障发生的可能性更大,因此对评估电网功率传输能力提出了更高要求,特别是如何有效评估输电可靠性裕度(TRM),对于电力市场的安全、可靠、经济运行具有重要意义.文中引入至少输电容量的概念,综合考虑了系统中的不确定因素,构建了基于主从递阶决策的TRM双层优化模型,并给出了求解该模型的一种简便、实用的方法.最后通过对IEEE118节点系统进行数据仿真,说明了该模型的合理性和有效性.     

Fast evaluation of available transfer capability using cubic-spline interpolation technique

This paper presents a new computationally fast and accurate method for evaluating available transfer capability (ATC) based on a curve fitting technique so-called as the cubic-spline interpolation technique. The advantage of the technique used in the computation of ATC is that it has the ability to reduce the time consuming ac power flow computations. The cubic-spline interpolation technique traces the curves of voltage magnitude and power flow variations with respect to the increase of real power transfer. ATC is then determined at the point where the voltage or power flow limits intersect the curves. Prior to the ATC evaluation, contingency ranking and selection techniques are used to define the critical lines in a system that can adversely affect the transfer capability assessment. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by illustrating the ATC evaluation on a practical test system. ATC results obtained from the proposed cubic-spline interpolation technique prove that the method is satisfactorily accurate and it is faster than the ATC method using the recursive ac power flow computations.     

基于直流灵敏度法的可用传输容量输电费用评估

在竞争性的电力市场环境下,输电网的可用传输容量(Available Transfer Capability,ATC)输电费用是一个亟待解决的问题。提出了ATC传输费用的概念,阐述了直流潮流灵敏度法的ATC的传输费用算法,该方法利用直流潮流灵敏度的变化来分析电力市场环境下可用传输容量的问题,并利用潮流跟踪法将可用传输容量输电费用公平分摊到各个交易的参与者,最后使用所提算法以及常规最优潮流法对WSCC-9节点输电系统某时段的电力交易进行了仿真计算。结果表明,此方法计算速度快、迭代次数少,能有效地跟踪电力市场的变化,能够满足电力市场实时交易的要求,具有一定的经济实用价值。     

Stochastic-Algebraic Calculation of Available Transfer Capability

Power systems are stochastic in nature due to uncertainty in bus loading and transmission system asset status. The available transfer capability (ATC) is a measure of "available capacity" in a power transmission system beyond already committed uses, i.e., beyond base case loading. To render the ATC as a more realistic measure of transmission availability, a stochastic calculation of ATC is proposed. A stochastic power flow algorithm can be used to help quantify and evaluate the uncertainty of the ATC. The limitations considered in the stochastic ATC calculation algorithm are: transmission thermal rating limits; bus voltage magnitude limits; and transmission circuit outages. The stochastic-algebraic calculation of ATC is described and tested using a reduced order WECC 179 bus system     

基于马尔可夫链和故障枚举法的可用输电能力计算

可用输电能力(ATC)是电力市场中指导电网输电交易的重要指标,也是电网调度部门调整阻塞的重要参考。电力系统是一个动态时变系统,存在大量的不确定性和随机性,考虑这些不确定性因素对ATC的影响是准确计算ATC的一个难点。马尔可夫链能根据系统的初始状态和可能状态之间的转移概率预测系统未来的发展趋势,该文引入马尔可夫链对电力系统状态进行预测,并采用故障枚举法对各时刻的可能状态进行枚举,通过概率方法求取ATC的期望值,并能得到ATC随时间变化的曲线。IEEE14节点系统的计算结果表明,所提出的模型及算法是正确有效的,能给出更准确的ATC信息。     

快速计算电网可用输电能力的交流灵敏度方法

在电力市场环境下，可用输电能力(ATC)是反映输电设备可用于能量交易的剩余容量的重要指标。ATC一旦确定后，快速估计出系统参数变化对输电能力的影响具有很大的实际应用价值。文中首先基于连续潮流方法，考虑输电支路的过负荷约束、发电机有功及无功出力约束和节点电压约束，计算出ATC的值；然后推导出ATC对多种运行参数摄动的一阶灵敏度计算模型，运行参数包括节点负荷功率、发电节点端电压以及给定的能量交易，这些灵敏度系数能够很快地计算；最后，使用了IEEE30节点系统的算例来验证文中所提出的方法的有效性和快速性。     

基于SDAE特征提取的含风电电网可用输电能力计算

风力发电的不确定性显著增加了电力系统可用输电能力(ATC)计算的难度。基于点估计的Gram-Charlier级数展开理论和深度学习技术,提出了一种计及越限概率要求的ATC快速计算方法,考虑的约束类型包括静态安全、静态电压稳定和暂态稳定约束。假定风电出力概率分布已知,结合两点估计法和Gram-Charlier级数展开,通过两个确定性场景的最大输电能力(TTC)计算结果逼近TTC的累积分布函数。为了快速、准确地获得确定性场景的TTC,利用堆叠降噪自动编码器(SDAE)建立了TTC计算的深度学习模型。获得TTC的累积分布函数后,将断面功率超过TTC的概率定义为越限概率,推导了给定越限概率要求下ATC计算的表达式。实际电网仿真结果表明,所提方法能够有效计及多类安全稳定约束,快速、准确计算不同越限概率要求下的ATC。     

基于失负荷期望的河北南部电网重要输电线路可用输电能力

研究和评估输电线路的可用输电能力,对于确定电网的合理运行方式和优化配置电网资源具有重要意义,为此,将失负荷期望概率应用于可用输电能力计算,以河北南网重要输电线路为研究对象,基于重要输电线路的典型潮流对河北南网进行地理分区,分析了典型运行方式下各分区的失负荷期望概率。最后确定了使河北南网各分区失负荷期望概率小于0.1 d/a的廉彭双回、清沧和辛沧两线的可用输电能力。研究结果可为确定线路输送功率和减小电网失负荷期望概率的措施提供参考。     

风电并网系统区域间概率可用输电能力计算

为了准确评估风电场接入电网对系统可用输电能力(Available Transfer Capability,ATC)的影响,针对风电并网系统的概率可用输电能力计算展开研究,详细分析不同风电并网情况下ATC的变化规律。首先基于风速Weibull分布,建立了大型风电场输出功率数学模型;进而采用原-对偶内点法完成风电并网系统可用输电能力单一样板值的求解。在此基础上,采用蒙特卡罗仿真法从广义角度对风电并网系统的ATC进行概率评估。仿真结果表明,所提算法能够有效评估风电这种波动性电源对ATC的影响。研究成果可为风电并网系统安全经济性能评估提供有效参考信息,对未来电网规划扩建具有指导意义。     

Monte Carlo Optimization for Conflict Resolution in Air Traffic Control

The safety of flights, and, in particular, separation assurance, is one of the main tasks of air traffic control (ATC). Conflict resolution refers to the process used by ATCs to prevent loss of separation. Conflict resolution involves issuing instructions to aircraft to avoid loss of safe separation between them and, at the same time, direct them to their destinations. Conflict resolution requires decision making in the face of the considerable levels of uncertainty inherent in the motion of aircraft. In this paper, a framework for conflict resolution that allows one to take into account such levels of uncertainty using a stochastic simulator is presented. The conflict resolution task is posed as the problem of optimizing an expected value criterion. It is then shown how the cost criterion can be selected to ensure an upper bound on the probability of conflict for the optimal maneuver. Optimization of the expected value resolution criterion is carried out through an iterative procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. Simulation examples inspired by current ATC practice in terminal maneuvering areas and approach sectors illustrate the proposed conflict resolution strategy     

应用粒子群优化算法求解可用输电能力

在电力市场环境下,诸多问题(例如实时电价、网络阻塞等)都需要最优潮流作为理想的工具.本文以最优潮流为基础,应用一种简单有效、且收敛性很好的演化计算算法--粒子群优化算法(PSO)进行可用输电能力(ATC)问题的求解.根据约束条件的越限量大小,动态地调整罚函数,在保证全局搜索能力的基础上改进了收敛速度.应用此算法对IEEE-30节点系统进行了可用输电能力计算,并与传统的最优潮流算法进行了比较,结果表明该算法的有效性,具有实用意义.     

考虑新能源出力不确定性的可用输电能力在线评估方法

准确、高效地在线计算新能源送出断面的可用输电能力(ATC)对于在维持系统安全稳定运行的前提下提高新能源消纳能力具有重要意义提出一种考虑新能源出力不确定性的ATC在线评估方法,在各新能源电厂出力区间概率的基础上进行概率潮流计算,获得关键输电断面的功率区间及其概率;评估断面功率区间故障后新能源机组脱网和受端负荷损失情况,获得运行风险;以收益与运行风险差值最大化为目标获得断面的ATC值。某实际电网算例验证了所提方法的有效性.     

牛顿法和内点罚函数法相结合的概率可用功率交换能力计算

区域间可用功率交换能力(ATC)是所有电力市场的参与者进行交易活动所必需的重要信息。文中运用改进牛顿法和内点罚函数法相结合进行最优潮流计算，取得相应的单点．ATC值；在负荷预测和故障选择的基础上，作概率上的统计分析，得到未来时刻的可能的ATC概率分布情况。根据概率上的要求，将可得到未来时刻所要安全概率对应的ATC值。在模型中，考虑了发电机发电极限，电压水平，线路和设备过负荷等安全性约束条件。IEEE-30节点系统的计算结果表明了用该方法计算ATC的有效性和实用性。     

基于区间规划的可用传输容量计算方法

区域间可用传输容量是保障系统安全的指标之一.在电力市场环境下,发电机报价的不确定性将给电网可用传输容量计算带来很大偏差.文中基于区间数理论,引入了广义报价的新理念,详细分析了广义报价作用下的发电序位决策方法,构建了不确定性的电网可用传输容量计算新方法.该方法可方便地求解不同市场购电期望水平下不确定性的电网可用传输容量,...     

考虑新能源发电不确定性的可用输电能力风险效益评估

随着新能源发电的迅速发展,其功率输出的间歇性、随机性将对可用输电能力(ATC)产生显著影响。利用蒙特卡洛仿真法模拟新能源发电出力间歇性、随机性和负荷波动以及系统设备状态的不确定性,通过最优潮流求解特定系统状态和参数下的ATC;利用概率统计理论确定ATC样本值的概率密度,基于此建立ATC的风险效益模型,通过数值分析技术确定综合效益最大的ATC。从发电设备位置、功率输出不确定性、穿透率等方面研究新能源发电对ATC的影响。用包含风电、光伏电源的改进IEEE 118系统验证了方法的有效性。     

基于半光滑牛顿法的可用输电能力新算法

提出了计算电网可用输电能力(ATC)的一种新方法。将ATC计算问题描述为特定发电节点与负荷节点的交易量最大的优化问题,考虑了多种系统运行约束和交易规则约束。针对这一优化问题,通过引入非线性互补问题函数,将原优化问题转化为非线性方程组,并采用半光滑牛顿法进行求解。算法的显著优点是避免了不等式约束的识别问题,从而极大地提高了计算效率。IEEE系统的多个算例表明该方法非常有效,具有很好的应用前景。     

电力市场下电网的可传输容量

电网的可传输容量（ATC）是在电力市场前提下产生和发展的，它反映出输电网对电力市场还可提供的最大传输容量，并随着电力市场运营的深入，双边交易的剧增，而受到了广泛关注，介绍了ATC的概念；阐述了ATC的计算方法：连续潮流法、最优潮流法和灵敏度分析法，总结了各种方法的优缺点和适用范围；并通过分析目前ATC在美国的实际应用情况，对ATC的应用和研究工作提出了一些建议。     

计及源网荷交互影响的区域电网热稳安全供电区间计算方法

新能源和负荷的不确定性与输电通道的潮流转移存在交互影响,区域电网供电能力呈现出强不确定性的特点。提出一种计及源网荷交互影响的区域电网热稳安全供电区间计算模型及其求解方法。采用安全供电区间来描述区域电网供电能力的分布范围,考虑新能源和负荷的不确定性,建立区域电网热稳安全供电区间的线性化模型。在输电通道安全运行约束中考虑可中断负荷参与调控的影响,挖掘区域电网的供电能力。实际电网的算例结果表明,不同源荷分布下的供电能力分布在一个较宽的范围,可中断负荷的分布和容量均对供电能力影响较大,验证了所提模型的正确性。