我国可持续发展中的能源问题

通过与发达国家经济发展状况、能源利用经济效率、能源消费结构以及能源资源状况的比较提出了我国在可持续发展中所面临的和必须应对的能源问题 ,指出了节能、提高能源利用效率在实现可持续发展目标中的地位和作用     

中国可持续能源发展情景及其碳排放分析

中国目前已经制定了中长期的社会经济发展战略,“十五”规划中也提出了一些战略要点,如可持续发展,科技进步,西部开发战略,城市化和人才战略。如果中国要实现上述预期目标,能源部门应当有那些行动,政府和市场的作用如何?为此的环境代价如何?也确实值得从社会、经济、能源、环境可持续发展的角度,开展上述研究工作。本文简要介绍了研究的方法与思路,情景设计的基本考虑以及主要结论。文章最后还对影响中国能源发展之路的不确定因素进行了分析评价。     

浙江省可持续发展能源指标的研究

研究利用国际原子能机构2005年开发完成的可持续发展能源指标体系（EISD），建立了包含17个指标的浙江省可持续发展能源指标体系，对社会、经济和环境领域的浙茳省可持续发展相关重点能源问题进行评估，并对未来能源发展情景进行预测。     

实施大气污染物排放总量控制后能源系统的减排效果

要以上海为例,采用MARKAL模型研究了能源系统对未来环境政策的响应。政策情景包括提高能源效率、能源结构调整、实施SO2排放总量控制等。研究结果显示,提高能源效率和实施能源结构调整后,上海市CO2、SO2和PM10排放量将明显降低。进一步削减NOx和PM10排放将主要取决于末端处理技术。     

论能源革命与法律革命的维度

以清洁能源替代化石能源和提高能源效率为内容的能源革命，已经成为“实现向低碳、高效、环保的能源供应体系迅速转变”的契机。本世纪初，IEA和有关研究机构以变革能源基准情景和参考情景构筑的替代政策情景、能效政策情景、ACT（技术加速发展）情景及450ppm情景掀起了能源革命的浪潮。     

“碳中和”目标下中国核电发展

中国能源结构不合理,化石能源占比偏高,这对如期实现“碳中和”目标带来巨大的挑战。大规模利用无碳能源是减少碳排放量的主要手段,核能作为优质的无碳能源,在“碳中和”过程中将做出重大贡献。本文从能源的生产、消费及结构等方面分析了中国能源供需现状及其发展趋势,介绍了中国核电的发展现状,预测了中国核电在不同强度低碳情景下的需求量,构建了核电“三位一体”的发展架构,保障核能高速可持续发展。研究表明中国在“碳中和”目标引导下,无碳能源大规模使用,能源结构将获得极大的优化,核能将成为最重要的无碳能源供应来源之一,在强化低碳情景中,随着核电技术及建设能力的极大提高,预计2050年中国核电装机规模最高可达6.9亿千瓦时。     

中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系构建与初步评价

能源可持续发展事关中国长期可持续发展的成败。为及时把握我国能源发展的状态趋势,实现在安全、经济、高效、低碳、清洁、公平各方面的均衡可持续发展,本文从中国经济社会可持续发展的基本需求和能源可持续发展的内涵出发,设计出中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系,并对2000～2010年中国能源可持续发展水平,以及2020年的能源情景进行了量化评价。研究结果将对我国能源战略决策具有重要支撑作用。     

中国洁净煤技术发展现状及发展思路

煤炭是中国的主要能源,中国终端能源消费中煤炭所占比例过大和能源效率低下,是造成污染严重的主要原因。本文较为详尽地分析了国内外各项洁净煤技术发展的动态,揭示了近几年中国洁净煤技术的迅速发展。说明发展洁净煤技术,可从源头上减少燃煤污染;可提高能源效率,解决煤炭效率低下问题;可有效减少ＳＯ２排放,达到全过程脱硫的目标;可增加煤炭就地转化;有利于实现煤炭消费向以煤电为主转变,解决终端能源消费结构不合理问题。发展洁净煤技术是解决中国煤炭环境问题、实现可持续发展的必然选择。     

实施大气污染物排放总是控制后能源系统的减排效果

以上海为例，采用MARKAL模型研究了能源系统对未来环境政策的响应。政策情景包括提高能源效率、能源结构调整、实施SO2排放总量控制等。研究结果显示，提高能源效率和实施能源结构调整后，上海市CO2、SO2和PM10排放量将明显降低。进一步削减NOx和PM10排放将主要取决于末端处理技术。     

中国交通运输部门中长期能源发展与碳排放情景设计及其结果分析(一)

随着我国经济的持续增长及人民生活水平的提高,随着汽车逐步进入家庭,我国交通运输部门的能源需求将会以较高的速度增长,也将对整个国家能源供需和环境保护产生重要影响。本研究试图在对中国社会经济发展以及能源预测和碳排放情景相关的研究回顾与分析评价研讨的基础上,探讨可能影响中国交通运输能源发展与碳排放的主要不确定因素,并借助相关的模型分析工具,分析比较中国未来交通用能和碳排放的发展趋势,提出相应的政策建议。     

An analytical framework for energy policy evaluation

This paper presents a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of energy policies and provides a contextual view of measures on energy polices in linking with the objective of a sustainable economy. Firstly, Taiwan’s energy policy is overviewed by analyzing the energy-related data to examine its deficit according to the framework presented. This paper finds that the energy policy adopted fails to attain the objective of a sustainable economy because energy consumption and CO₂ emissions still keep upward trends. It also concludes that an energy policy should focus on (1) improving energy efficiency, (2) reshaping industry structure and (3) improving energy structure. In other words, the energy policy maker should create an environment that can motivate the development of clean energy supply and utilization for the achievement of energy policy objectives.     

调整政策 促进可再生能源发展

步入21世纪,可持续发展战略实施力度加大。面对环境和国内外市场的严峻挑战,我国可再生能源如何发展,这需要进行政策性的战略调整。从思路上要改变传统观念,把新能源和可再生能源作为21世纪中叶我国的主要接续能源,将其列入国民经济发展的五年计划和中长期规划中,促其产业化和本地化。适当时机启动新能源和可再生能源产业化工程。改变风能开发的地区优先顺序,即选择资源条件较好,但经济发达或比较发达的地区,以政府的强制性法规,推行可再生能源发电配额制。在新的电价机制中,给上网售电的风能等绿色电力予以环保折扣。     

Sustainable energy policy in Honduras: Diagnosis and challenges

In view of having a still unexploited potential of natural resources available for clean energy and the possibility of using the regional electricity market in Central America, Honduras has several potential energy sources. The growing dependence on oil and the imminent increase in international prices of fossil fuels, coupled with the necessity of changing the energy sector arrangement, the State of Honduras has taken the lead for the development of a long-term sustainable energy policy. This energy policy must be able to develop various energy sources and guide both, the government and the private sector, to the planning and development of alternative energy sources and sustainable growth of the Honduran economy. In this paper, the various energy diagnoses and the potential for changing the Honduran energy mix are presented, as well as the investment required for sustainable management of the energy sector. Furthermore, the objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes.     

Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model

China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different energy development scenarios on western China economy. A reference scenario and several different west to east energy transfer scenarios with and without consideration of the water constraints and the endogenous technology learning are presented. The modeling describes the energy consumption, carbon emissions, water consumption, energy investment cost, and the impact on western China GDP of the different scenarios through the year 2050. These results have implications on sustainable energy development policies and sustainable west to east energy transfer strategies.     

Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model "e3.at"

This paper reports on the Austrian research project "Renewable energy in Austria: Modeling possible development trends until 2020". The project investigated possible economic and ecological effects of a substantially increased use of renewable energy sources in Austria. Together with stakeholders and experts, three different scenarios were defined, specifying possible development trends for renewable energy in Austria. The scenarios were simulated for the period 2006-2020, using the integrated environment-energy-economy model "e3.at". The modeling results indicate that increasing the share of renewable energy sources in total energy use is an important but insufficient step towards achieving a sustainable energy system in Austria. A substantial increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of residential energy consumption also form important cornerstones of a sustainable energy policy.     

Opportunities and challenges for renewable energy policy in China

Renewable energy is the inevitable choice for sustainable economic growth, for the harmonious coexistence of human and environment as well as for the sustainable development. Government support is the key and initial power for developing renewable energy. In this article, an overall review has been conducted on renewable energy development policy (including laws and regulations, economic encouragement, technical research and development, industrialized support and government model projects, etc.) in China. On this basis, a systematic analysis has been conducted on the disadvantages of renewable energy development policy. On the point of long-term effective system for renewable energy development, a series of policy advice has been offered, such as strengthening the policy coordination, enhancing regional policy innovation, echoing with clean development mechanism, implementing process management, constructing market investment and financing system. It is expected that the above advices could be helpful to ever-improvement of renewable energy development policy.     

低碳经济背景下《节约能源法》的问题与完善

传统的能源节约的概念不适应低碳经济发展的需要,因而需要做出改变。低碳经济背景下,能源节约应与经济、环境的可持续发展相结合。努力做到在保障经济的发展的同时减少能源消耗,这是一种新的立法理念,应在《节能法》中有所体现。     

江苏省能源可持续发展的构想

文章首先分析了江苏省能源供需现状及面临的问题,然后从可持续发展的原则出发,提出江苏实行开源与节流并举,国产,进口与替代并举的方针,以能泽结构的调整和优化为突破口,以降低能源消耗,提高能源利用率为目标,实现能源与社会经济和环境的可持续发展。