A general framework for analyzing techno-behavioural dynamics on networks

A general framework for assessing future impacts of technology on society and environment is presented. The dynamics between human activity and technological systems impact upon many processes in society and nature. This involves non-linear dynamics requiring an understanding of how technology and human behaviour influence each other and co-evolve. Conventionally, technological and behavioural systems are analyzed as separate entities. We develop an integrated theoretical and methodological approach termed techno-behavioural dynamics focussing on networked interactions between technology and behaviour across multiple system states. We find that positive feedback between technology learning, evolving preferences and network effects can lead to tipping points in complex sociotechnical systems. We also demonstrate how mean-field and agent-based models are complimentary for capturing a hierarchy of analytical resolutions in a common problem domain. Assessing and predicting co-evolutionary dynamics between technology and human behaviour can help avoid systems lock-in and inform a range of adaptive responses to environmental and societal risk.     

广义信息系统及其决策规则

提出一类更广泛的信息系统,称其为广义信息系统．它包含了完备信息系统、不完备信息系统和多值信息系统．给出了广义信息系统集合近似的概念、方法和相关性质．讨论了广义信息决策系统的决策描述形式．这种决策描述形式易于转化为Skolem标准型,可以直接应用于人工智能的归结推理．     

Extension of cellular automata via the introduction of an algorithm for the recursive estimation of neighbors

This study focuses on an extended model of standard cellular automaton (CA), which includes an extra index, comprising a radius that defines a perception area for each cell in addition to the radius defined by the CA rule. Such an extension can be realized by introducing a recursive algorithm called the “Recursive Estimation of Neighbors.” The extended CA rules form a sequence ordered by this index, which includes the CA rule as its first term. This extension aims to construct a model that can be used within the CA framework to study the relation between information processing and pattern formation in collective systems. Even though the extension presented here is merely an extrapolation to a CA having a larger rule neighborhood identical to the perception area, the extra radius can be interpreted as an individual attribute of each cell. The novel perspective to CA provided here makes it possible to build heterogeneous CAs, which contain cells having different extra radii. Several pattern formations in the extension of one-dimensional elementary CAs and two-dimensional Life-like CAs are presented. It is expected that the extended model can be applied to various simulations of complex systems and in other fields.     

Decision support for flight re-routing in Europe

Congestion has plagued air traffic in the US and in Europe for the last 20 years. To protect air traffic control from overloads, air traffic flow management tries to anticipate and prevent overloads and to limit resulting delays. This paper focuses on understanding the requirements for developing re-routing decision support systems (DSS). It identifies participants in re-routing decisions and investigates the concept of, and need for, a re-routing decision support system. A re-routing demonstrator is discussed as a first step in the development of a DSS and a demonstrator for pre-tactical and tactical re-routings is described. User feedback is presented and issues of automation and complexity of re-routing DSS are discussed. Finally, the integration of re-routing DSS in future air traffic management systems is addressed.     

A visual representation of cellular automata-like systems

Cellular automata (CA) models and corresponding algorithms have a rich theoretical basis, and have also been used in a great variety of applications. A number of programming languages and systems have been developed to support the implementation of the CA models. However, these languages focus on computational and performance issues, and do not pay enough attention to programming productivity, usability, understandability, and other aspects of software engineering.In this paper, we describe a new special-purpose programming language developed for visual specification, presentation, and explanation of CA systems within a visual programming environment, as well as, for programming them. This language is based on using visual patterns, colors, and animation for representing the CA system structures and operations on these structures, and for performing editing and composing manipulations with corresponding software components. Examples of the CA algorithm representations and some details of the environment implementation are presented.     

A web-based screening model for climate risk to water supply systems in the northeastern United States

The aim of this study is to describe the development and application of a web-based decision support tool (ViRTUE) for performing climate risk evaluations of water supply systems. The tool is designed for small-scale water utilities in the northeastern United States that may lack the resources for detailed climate change risk investigations. Development of this tool demonstrates a relatively new approach to web application development using the Shiny framework for the R programming language to create an interactive environment for stakeholders and water managers to explore climate vulnerabilities. Using a decision-scaling framework, the tool allows the user to perform a climate stress test to evaluate the performance and vulnerability to water supply shortfalls of local reservoir systems over a wide range of potential climate change scenarios using a generic systems model. Probabilities of future climate conditions derived from climate projections then help inform utility operators of impending risk.     

Crisis IT design implications for high risk systems: systems,control and information propositions

The systems view is presented as a complement to the more traditional scientific approach to help reduce and mitigate risk in high risk systems. Implications for this systemic approach are described, principally in the areas of control and information. Most generally, we investigate how high risk systems use information to maintain control, and how IT systems should be designed to support this activity. Two variations in the systems view – the objective and constructive – are distilled and compared, and for each, the implications for crisis IT systems design are discussed. The limitations of the two variations of the systems view are presented, as is a brief annotated bibliography for further reading about the systems view.     

Decision support for Cybersecurity risk planning

Security countermeasures help ensure the confidentiality, availability, and integrity of information systems by preventing or mitigating asset losses from Cybersecurity attacks. Due to uncertainty, the financial impact of threats attacking assets is often difficult to measure quantitatively, and thus it is difficult to prescribe which countermeasures to employ. In this research, we describe a decision support system for calculating the uncertain risk faced by an organization under cyber attack as a function of uncertain threat rates, countermeasure costs, and impacts on its assets. The system uses a genetic algorithm to search for the best combination of countermeasures, allowing the user to determine the preferred tradeoff between the cost of the portfolio and resulting risk. Data collected from manufacturing firms provide an example of results under realistic input conditions.     

Decision tables: Formalisation,validation, and verification

The decision table is one of the simplest representations of the rules underlying a systematic decision-making process, and is especially valuable in the development of knowledge-based systems. A two dimensional table links all relevant combinations of input conditions to the desired combinations of output actions in a very intuitive way. This simplicity belies the complex considerations involved in verifying, validating, formulating or interpreting this (or any other) representation of machine-based knowledge. In this paper, the common styles of decision table representation are reviewed, a formulation of their meaning is presented, construction methods are reviewed, and an algorithm for ensuring consistency is suggested. The problems that may occur in imperfectly constructed tables are discussed, detection methods reviewed, and some implementation methods are presented.     

Decision support systems: An expert systems approach

This paper provides a conceptual framework for designing decision support systems (DSS) using an expert systems approach. Currently there is a significant trend towards the use of knowledge-based systems techniques in DSS design, but a comprehensive framework is yet to be proposed. Our paper addresses this problem and presents such a framework. Efforts are currently underway to design, implement and test a system based on this framework.     

A stochastically constrained cellular model of urban growth

Recent approaches to modeling urban growth use the notion that urban development can be conceived as a self-organizing system in which natural constraints and institutional controls (land-use policies) temper the way in which local decision-making processes produce macroscopic patterns of urban form. In this paper a cellular automata (CA) model that simulates local decision-making processes associated with fine-scale urban form is developed and used to explore the notion of urban systems as self-organizing phenomenon. The CA model is integrated with a stochastic constraint model that incorporates broad-scale factors that modify or constrain urban growth. Local neighborhood access rules are applied within a broader neighborhood in which friction-of-distance limitations and constraints associated with socio-economic and bio-physical variables are stochastically realized. The model provides a means for simulating the different land-use scenarios that may result from alternative land-use policies. Application results are presented for possible growth scenarios in a rapidly urbanizing region in south east Queensland, Australia.     

Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard risk reduction: Current status and future research directions

Natural hazard risk is largely projected to increase in the future, placing growing responsibility on decision makers to proactively reduce risk. Consequently, decision support systems (DSSs) for natural hazard risk reduction (NHRR) are becoming increasingly important. In order to provide directions for future research in this growing area, a comprehensive classification system for the review of NHRR-DSSs is introduced, including scoping, problem formulation, the analysis framework, user and organisational interaction with the system, user engagement, monitoring and evaluation. A review of 101 papers based on this classification system indicates that most effort has been placed on identifying areas of risk and assessing economic consequences resulting from direct losses. However, less effort has been placed on testing risk-reduction options and considering future changes to risk. Furthermore, there was limited evidence within the reviewed papers on the success of DSSs in practice and whether stakeholders participated in DSS development and use.     

一个基于市场分析与预测的决策支持系统MAF-DSS

文章介绍一个用于市场分析与预策的决策支持系统MAF-DSS。它从管理信息系统中提取数据,运用数学方法与人工智能方法,对市场情况进行多种分析与预测,并将结果综合成文字报告,利用语音同时配以表格、统计图形、可视化模型、三维复杂模型实时动态显示等多种形式输出,为企业的管理与决策提供支持。文章在简述系统功能后,着重介绍这一系统的解决方案和系统所采用的分析预测方法与框架。     

Fuzzy logic-based decision support system for automating ergonomics risk assessments

Workers in the modular construction industry are frequently exposed to ergonomic risks, which may lead to injuries and lower productivity. In light of this, researchers have proposed a number of ergonomics risk assessment methods to identify design flaws in work systems, thereby reducing ergonomic discomfort and boosting workplace productivity. However, organizations often disregard ergonomics risk assessments due to a lack of convenient tools and knowledge. Therefore, this study proposes a fuzzy logic-based decision support system to help practitioners to automatically and comprehensively assess the ergonomic performance of work systems. For comprehensive assessment of ergonomic risk, the proposed decision support system considers physical, environmental, and sensory factors. Specifically, the decision support system comprises eight fuzzy expert systems that output a composite risk score, called an “ergonomic risk indicator”, that indicates the overall level of ergonomic risk present in a given work system. The performance of the proposed decision support system is then evaluated using a real-world case study in a modular construction facility by comparing the results of the decision support system with the facility's occupational injury reports. The results prove the effectiveness of the decision support system. Overall, the decision support system is capable of generating a composite risk score, the ergonomic risk indicator, and the proposed high-level architecture and design represent significant contributions for the enhancement of health and safety in the modular construction industry.     

基于概率的有序信息系统

若信息系统中所有的条件属性都是偏好有序的,则称此信息系统为有序信息系统。首先,分析了区间值有序信息系统没有蕴含属性值区间上的概率分布信息的缺点,建立了一种基于概率的有序信息系统。然后,在这种信息系统上,研究了关于单调偏好有序属性和非单调偏好有序属性的二元偏好关系,建立了一种基于概率的优势关系,定义了基于这种优势关系的粗糙集模型。最后研究了基于概率的有序决策表及其决策规则。     

Design of a decision support system for detailed scheduling

Design of a decision support system ( ) based on a simulation model of the detailed scheduling activities in a tractor manufacturing company is dealt with. The system analysis phase of the design process is overviewed briefly. The main decision points involved and the problems faced in the production planning and control subsystem are presented. Expectations from a for detailed scheduling are discussed and performance measures are defined. The links between computer programs are shown. Utilization of the designed for production planning and control oriented decision making is discussed using decision tables.     

Template-based configuration and execution of decision workflows in design of complex engineered systems

The research reported in the paper is from a decision-based design perspective wherein the principal role (but not only) role of a designer is to make decisions. Decision workflows are the processes by which the solutions pertaining to the design of complex systems are generated. Decision workflows are core to design processes, in which a set of decisions are connected (or interconnected) to generate shared and desired design outputs. Careful configuration of decision workflows is very important to ensure the generation of designs using available resources. Configuration of decision workflows is a process that requires a designer to use the basic elements to compose feasible workflows and then select an appropriate one for implementation in designing a product or a system. In this paper, we propose a template-based method for the design and execution of decision workflows associated with designing engineered systems. The value of the method is anchored in that it facilitates designers rapidly planning the processes, namely, the decision workflows, for designing products or systems. Moreover, due to the fact that these decision workflows are modeled in a computational manner, designers are able to execute decision workflows to explore the solution space and identify satisficing design solutions in early design stages. A gearbox with connected gears and shafts is a typical complex engineered system that can be partitioned into multiple levels of interacting subsystems. We illustrate the method and the decision workflows using a gear and shaft (within a gearbox) design example.     

Structural design using Cellular Automata for eigenvalue problems

Cellular Automata (CA) is an emerging paradigm for the analysis and design of complex systems. Recently, it has been successfully applied to structural design. In this work, an algorithm for designing structures for eigenvalue requirements is presented. The proposed algorithm, being fully local in nature, lends itself to CA-type implementation. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the design of Euler–Bernoulli columns for a prescribed buckling load is considered. Excellent agreement between the CA results and exact solutions is obtained. A more complex column design problem with local constraints is also considered, and the CA design is compared to the design obtained using a state-of-the-art structural optimization software.     

数据仓库技术在道路运政管理系统中的应用

本文分析了目前国内外道路运输企业建立企业信息化综合平台的现状，提出了基于湖北省道路运政管理信息系统基础之上的道路运政管理数据仓库的系统目标、逻辑设计、体系结构和实现方法。