国际CDM现状分析

2005年2月16日,倍受国际社会关注的《京都议定书》(《议定书》)终于正式生效。《议定书》下的清洁发展机制(CDM)与发展中国家关系最为密切,了解和分析国际上实施CDM的动态,是发展中国家积极参与国际减排行动并争取自身最大利益的必要前提。《京都议定书》下正式的CDM项目屈指可数,项目审批程序复杂、风险大;技术含量低、减排量大的非CO2项目大行其道;CER价格被买方压制。众多因素限制了CDM市场的大规模发展和对东道国可持续发展的贡献。昂贵而费时的项目开发、核证和审批使CDM产生了事倍功半的效果。若不对CDM体制进行较大的改革,它将很难在2012年后继续生存下去。对于中国的CDM开发商和咨询机构,采用EB已批方法学将有助于降低审批风险;实施单边项目将有可能使CER获得二级或现货市场的最大收益。     

CDM项目的风险与控制

《京都议定书》下的清洁发展机制(CDM)属于新生事物,其规则程序复杂,并受到国际气候变化谈判进程的制约,造成实施CDM项目所面临的风险高于普通项目,项目开发难度大、费用高。这些风险将影响项目的构架和减排交易的形成。从中国CDM项目的开发商和有关咨询单位来看,应提高风险意识,加强对CDM项目存在的风险的认识、理解、防范和控制,提高项目投资决策的科学性和可靠性。     

2013年后风电项目的CDM收益可行性分析

《京都议定书》第一承诺期将于2012年12月31日失效,虽然德班会议经过艰难的谈判,最终确认了第二承诺期,但是加拿大于德班会议后第2天便宣布退出《京都议定书》,不再履行强制减排义务。另外,从2013年开始,欧盟(EU-ETs)可能只接受来自最不发达国家或有双边协议国家的CDM项目。上述种种迹象表明,2013年以后中国将面临CDM需求的大幅萎缩。针对中国众多CDM项目可能面临的困境,文章以2013年后中国风电项目CDM收益可行性为例进行深入探讨,希望对正在申请注册CDM项目的中国风电项目有所启示。     

Analysis of the partnership network in the clean development mechanism

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a global collaborative action proposed at the Kyoto Protocol in response to climate change issues. The CDM contributes to cost-efficient reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries and promotes sustainable development in developing countries. Its fundamental framework is based on partnerships between industrialized and developing countries. This study employs social network analysis to investigate the dynamics of the partnership networks observed in 3816 CDM projects registered in the database of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change over the period of 2005 to 2011. Our three main findings can be summarized as follows. First, the CDM partnership network is a small world; however, its density tends to decrease as the number of participants for a CDM project decreases. Second, the partnership networks’ leading groups tend to shift from partner countries into host countries. Third, a host country that pursues more partnership-based projects takes better control of resources and knowledge-flow in the ego-network formed around that country, and can thus better utilize global resources for its CDM projects.     

Clean development mechanism as a solution to the present world energy problems and a new world order: a review

One of the important responses of Kyoto Protocol towards mitigation of global warming is the clean development mechanism (CDM) that has garnered large emphasis amidst the global carbon market in terms of certified emission reduction (CER). CERs are the carbon credits issued by the CDM executive board for emission reductions achieved by CDM projects and verified by designated operational entity (DOE) under the rules of the Kyoto Protocol. While CDM aims to achieve sustainable development in energy production and consumption in developing countries, the results achieved through its implementation are still uncertain. More than 400 studies have been undertaken since 1997 on the CDM. Albeit, hitherto no compilations of key issues pertaining to the CDM and different points of views on its implementation and achievement have been attempted. This paper envisages to assess the contributions of the CDM towards sustainable development and its impact in various sectors.     

Encouraging the implementation of small renewable electricity CDM projects: An economic analysis of different options

Apart from contributing to the mitigation of GHG emissions, the deployment of renewable electricity Clean Development Mechanism projects (RE-CDM) may provide substantial local economic, social and environmental sustainability benefits to host countries. However, in spite of these advantages, a wide array of barriers prevents the realisation of these projects. They compete with other CDM options which lead to cheaper GHG emissions reductions but which do not provide as much opportunities for sustainable development in developing countries. Taking into account that, in contrast to GHG benefits, sustainability benefits are not valued in the market place and that article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol envisages two objectives for the CDM (cost-effective emissions reductions and contribution to sustainability), this market mechanism might be leading to a “market failure” in RE-CDM projects. This paper explores the different barriers affecting the implementation of RE-CDM projects and proposes and analyses several policies and measures that could be implemented to encourage their deployment by tackling those obstacles.     

CO2 emissions mitigation potential of solar home systems under clean development mechanism in India

The Government of India has taken several initiatives for promotion of solar energy systems in the country during the last two decades. A variety of policy measures have been adopted which include provision of financial and fiscal incentives to the potential users of solar energy systems however, only 0.4 million solar home systems (SHSs) have been installed so far that is far below their respective potential. One of the major barriers is the high costs of investments in these systems. The clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides industrialized (Annex-I) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing (non-Annex-I) countries to achieve a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. SHSs could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development, if developed correctly. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the CO₂ mitigation potential of SHSs under CDM in India.     

Implementation of RES projects within the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism

Specific features of proposals on the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol are described. It is noted that the implementation of these projects (RES projects being most attractive) will make it possible to attract additional investments and new technologies to the country’s national economy. Criteria of the choice of the CDM projects and the sustainable development parameters are considered.     

Transaction costs of unilateral CDM projects in India–results from an empirical survey

Recently, transaction costs in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) gained considerable attention as they were generally perceived to be significantly higher than for the other Kyoto Mechanisms. However, empirical evidence on the amount of transaction costs of CDM projects is very scarce. This paper presents the results from an empirical survey designed to quantify transaction costs of potential non-sink CDM projects in India. The definition of transaction costs of CDM projects was derived from recent literature and observations made in the current market for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). During the survey, parts of transaction costs of 15 projects were quantified. An assessment of the results showed that specific transaction costs depend, to a large extent, on economies of scale in terms of total amount of CERs generated over the crediting period. Total transaction costs were quantified for seven projects. The costs range from 0.07 to 0.47 $US/t CO₂. As the projects have an emission reduction between 0.24 Mt CO₂ and 5.00 Mt CO₂ over the crediting period, the results support the assumption of Michaelowa et al. (Climate Policy 3 (2003) 273) that projects with emission reductions smaller than 0.20 Mt CO₂ are not economically viable at current CER prices.     

中国清洁发展机制项目现状分析

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》框架下的一种双赢机制,它帮助发达国家实现其部分温室气体减排义务．同时帮助发展中国家实现可持续发展。CDM项目必须经国内批准、国际注册后才能开始减排量的监测与统计．并要通过EB严格的审核才可以签发CERs。截至2009年6月12日,中国已有118个CDM项目的减排量获得签发．合计签发减排总量达1．32×10^8t二氧化碳当量,占EB签发总减排量的44．55％。随着我国CDM项目的逐步多元化,新能源和可再生能源项目所占比例会进一步增长。中国政府从CDM项目获得的收益作为中国清洁发展机制基金,用于支持与气候变化相关的活动,企业自留的CDM收益资金只能用于与本项目产能无关的节能减排或可持续发展项目。     

日本执行清洁发展机制(CDM)的动向

日本是积极推动京都议定书生效的国家之一,但同时面临实现议定书承诺的重重困难。因此,使用京都机制是日本减排政策的重要组成部分。由于美国拒绝批准《京都议定书》,日本被认为是对CDM需求较大的附件1国家。本文在最新信息的基础上,描述日本国内CDM体制安排、项目申请程序、已经和正在进行的CDM项目和可行性调查,以及正在向CDM理事会申请DOE资格的公司和机构。本文目的在于为中国气候变化领域的政策制定者、研究人员以及对日方CDM项目感兴趣的企业界提供及时、准确的信息,为他们的决策提供依据。     

Explaining the differential distribution of Clean Development Mechanism projects across host countries

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol represents an opportunity to involve all developing countries in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also promoting sustainable development. To date, however, the majority of CDM projects have gone to emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, while very few least developed countries have hosted projects. This paper investigates the differential distribution of CDM activities across countries. We develop a conceptual model for project profitability, which helps to identify potential country-level determinants of CDM activity. These potential determinants are employed as explanatory variables in regression analysis to explain the actual distribution of projects. Human capital and greenhouse gas emission levels influenced which countries have hosted projects and the amount of certified emission reductions (CER) created. Countries that offered growing markets for CDM co-products, such as electricity, were more likely to be CDM hosts, while economies with higher carbon intensity levels had greater CER production. These findings work against the least developed countries and help to explain their lack of CDM activity.     

发电企业开发CDM项目的意义和潜力分析

《京都议定书》生效以后,CDM市场非常活跃。我国拥有非常大的CDM供给潜力,但由于CDM在我国开展时间不长,很多企业对CDM还不十分了解。本文分析了发电企业参与CDM活动的意义,并根据CDM开发规则对可成为CDM的项目潜力进行了分析,并提出有关开发建议。     

Clean development mechanism practice in China: Current status and possibilities for future regime

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expected to help Annex I countries achieve their binding commitment through a cost-effective way and to promote sustainable development in non Annex I countries including China, which has been the largest host country in the CDM market. This paper aims at reviewing the CDM practice followed in China from institutional arrangement to the risk and barriers faced by the project owners. The analysis shows that a clear institutional setting and implementation strategy is crucial for the effective implementation of CDM projects. The geographic uneven distribution of the CDM project partly due to the uneven capacity building practice can be removed by knowledge transfer and the learning by doing method. The sectoral uneven distribution caused by lack of proper methodology and unsatisfied technology transfer caused by risk consideration are also discussed. The experience and lessons learned from the CDM practice in China will be meaningful and valuable not only for other slow starters like Africa to improve their capacity but also for the international negotiation of future CDM regime aiming at expanding the coverage of CDM and fostering technology transfer.     

Extracting the resource rent from the CDM projects: Can the Chinese Government do better?

The revenue generated from a CDM project in China will be shared by the government and the project owner, and is also subject to the corporate income tax. This paper studies the impacts of the revenue sharing policy and income tax on the CDM market. The economic model presented in this paper shows that higher-cost CDM projects will be more affected by the CDM policies than lower-cost projects. In addition, the majority of CERs will be generated from lower-cost projects. This kind of distribution of CERs across different types of CDM projects, which is in line with the current picture of the CDM market in China, is not consistent with the goal of sustainable development. A simulation shows that a type-by-type tax/fee scheme would be more effective in assisting sustainable development than the current CDM policies. The study also suggests the government use negative tax/fee with the type-by-type scheme to subsidize the CDM projects that generate large sustainability benefits but would otherwise not be developed due to high costs. If all of the revenue from the CDM is recycled, it is estimated that CERs generation will increase by 98.28 MtC, mainly from the CDM projects that have substantial sustainability benefits for the host country.     

Can the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) deliver?

The paper investigates whether the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol has played a significant role in the development of rural communities, specifically investigating uptake of small-scale renewable energy projects. The investigation involved an assessment of 500 registered small-scale CDM projects under the Kyoto Protocol in terms of their potential impact on the envisaged sustainable development goals for rural communities. Five case studies from the Indian subcontinent were also examined.     

Host country attractiveness for CDM non-sink projects

In the present study, CDM host countries are classified according to their attractiveness for CDM non-sink projects by using cluster analysis. The attractiveness of host countries for CDM non-sink projects is described by three indicators: mitigation potential, institutional CDM capacity and general investment climate. The results suggest that only a small proportion of potential host countries will attract most of the CDM investment. The CDM (non-sink) stars are China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia and Thailand. They are followed by attractive countries like Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Mongolia, Panama, and Chile. While most of the promising CDM host countries are located in Latin America and Asia, the general attractiveness of African host countries is relatively low (with the exception of South Africa). Policy implications of this rather inequitable geographical distribution of CDM project activities are discussed briefly.     

中国CDM市场面临的风险及应对策略

《京都议定书》自2005年2月16日生效以来,全球CDM市场得到了快速发展,截止到2007年7月24日,已有742个项目在联合国执行理事会注册成功。其中,中国成功注册项目101个,已获得CERs签发的项目13个。但是风险与挑战无时无刻不伴随着CDM市场,对此,本文通过分析全球已注册项目及预计减排量在世界各个国家、各个行业的分布和中国已注册项目在各个行业的分布,对国内外CDM市场的发展现状进行了阐述,预测了中国CDM市场的发展趋势,揭示了中国CDM市场面临的风险,在此基础上给出了一些规避风险的应对策略。     

中外碳交易市场发展现状分析

《京都议定书》的生效,标志着国际社会开始以法律手段来限制温室气体排放,其中采取的重要机制之一就是碳排放权交易。清洁发展机制(CDM)、联合实施机制(JI)、国际排放权交易体系(IET)三种灵活机制作为碳金融工具,在关键国家和地区实施并迅速发展。CDM和JI是基于项目的市场,IET是基于配额的市场。目前国际碳交易市场以配额为主体,以项目交易为补充。西方发达国家已建成了全球性的碳交易市场,其中欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)是目前全球最大的排放交易体系。近年全球碳交易量及交易额迅速增长,预计2020年有望分别达到440×108t和5799亿美元,国际金融机构也积极参与碳交易市场。我国碳交易市场仍处于起步阶段,目前还只有CDM一种交易机制,国家已批准在7省市成立碳排放权交易试点。截至2013年6月底,我国签发的CDM项目数占到世界总量的61.76%。针对目前国内存在的问题,建议国家应设法扩大碳金融的影响力,建立统一的排放权交易平台,加强金融业对CDM项目的支持,完善碳金融法律框架,加大知识产权保护力度,同时要大力发展中介市场。     

全球清洁发展机制发展动向

《京都议定书》第12条“清洁发展机制(CDM)”中规定发展中国家可以帮助发达国家实施减排项目,并为自身的可持续发展服务。1997～2002年间,随着CDM的原则、规则和实施程序、机构等逐步确定下来,一些国际机构和国家开始积极运作CDM项目。首轮CDM项目是可再生能源的天下,以规模较小的水电和风电项目为主,而主角是PCF、荷兰CERUPT、巴西、印度、哥斯达黎加等参与者。这些CDM项目如同一个基础产业,不仅自身在发展,还带动了关联产业,如核实、认证、中介服务、咨询等一系列的商业活动。先行的CDM项目在开发、准备、谈判、额外性评价、基准线确定、价格、融资方式、核实等各方面为中国实施CDM提供了丰富的信息和经验。