Some thoughts on the Turkish electricity distribution industry

Over the past decade or so, the electricity industry of the Republic of Turkey (and indeed the world) has undergone profound reform in its structure, ownership and mindset. Increasing public concern about efficiency in the sector has led Turkey to discard the traditional model of a vertically integrated industry subject to cost-based regulation in favor of the unbundling of activities and the introduction of competition where it is possible. The industry has been structurally separated into generation, transmission, distribution and retail segments. The competitive segments of the industry (generation and retail) are planed to progressively expose to competition; the monopoly segments (especially, distribution) are to be reoriented to foster competition. Further, the ownership of the industry is under increasing pressure to move away from the public domain into the private one. The present article not only presents an analysis of the Turkish distribution sector and proposed privatization process but also provides some guidelines for policy makers.     

Made in Mexico: Energy reform and manufacturing growth

We assess the real effects of a recent opening of the energy sector in Mexico to private investment. We look at one particular channel, which operates through the change in the structure of electricity generation in favor of cheaper sources of energy, such as natural gas. We look at the potential impact of this structural change on electricity prices and ultimately on manufacturing output using subsector and state-level manufacturing output data. We first document that electricity prices—relative to oil and gas—are more important to the manufacturing sector, with a one-standard deviation reduction in those prices leading to a 2.8% increase in manufacturing output. This elasticity, together with estimated decreases in electricity prices on the back of the reform, could increase manufacturing output by up to 3.6%, and overall real GDP by 0.6%. Larger effects are possible in the long run if increased efficiency in the electricity sector leads to further decreases in electricity prices. There can also be larger effects stemming from output in the services sector which we find to also respond statistically significantly to electricity prices; and from the endogenous response of unit labor costs, which decrease with lower electricity prices.     

A CGE analysis for quantitative evaluation of electricity market changes

Risk and uncertainty entailed by electricity industry privatization impose a heavy burden on the political determination. In this sense, ex ante analyses are important in order to investigate the economic effects of privatization or liberalization in the electricity industry. For the purpose of fulfilling these quantitative analyses, a novel approach is developed, incorporating a top-down and bottom-up model that takes into account economic effects and technological constraints simultaneously. This study also examines various counterfactual scenarios after Korean electricity industry reform through the integrated framework. Simulation results imply that authorities should prepare an improved regulatory system and policy measures such as forward contracts for industry reform, in order to promote competition in the distribution sector as well as the generation sector.     

Cost function estimates,scale economies and technological progress in the Turkish electricity generation sector

Turkish electricity sector has undergone significant institutional changes since 1984. The recent developments since 2001 including the setting up of a regulatory agency to undertake the regulation of the sector and increasing participation of private investors in the field of electricity generation are of special interest. This paper estimates cost functions and investigates the degree of scale economies, overinvestment, and technological progress in the Turkish electricity generation sector for the period 1984–2006 using long-run and short-run translog cost functions. Estimations were done for six groups of firms, public and private. The results indicate existence of scale economies throughout the period of analysis, hence declining long-run average costs. The paper finds empirical support for the Averch–Johnson effect until 2001, i.e., firms overinvested in an environment where there are excess returns to capital. But this effect was reduced largely after 2002. Technological progress deteriorated slightly from 1984–1993 to 1994–2001 but improved after 2002. Overall, the paper found that regulation of the market under the newly established regulating agency after 2002 was effective and there are potential gains from such regulation.     

Electricity reform in Argentina: Lessons for developing countries

Argentina was one of the first countries in the world to implement a comprehensive reform of its electricity sector. Among developing countries only Chile has had a comparably comprehensive and successful reform. This paper traces the history of the Argentine reform, which began in 1992, and assesses its progress and its lessons. We conclude that the reform was very successful prior to the collapse of the Argentine peso in early 2002. We suggest lessons for the generation, transmission and distribution (and retailing) sectors, as well as the economic regulation of electricity and the general institutional environment. We note that the achievements of the sector have been severely strained by the government's poor energy policy since the crisis.     

Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and − 0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020.     

Profitability and productivity changes in the Korean electricity industry

The Korean electricity industry saw significant changes following the reform in April 2001. Until the last decade, the industry was monopolized by the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), a state-owned, vertically integrated company. The 2001 reform divided KEPCO's power generation division into six power generation companies (GENCOs), with the aim of improving efficiency and introducing competition in the electricity industry. In this study, we used capital total factor productivity (KTFP) to analyze profit changes from fixed input capital, and an index number profit decomposition (INPD) to examine the sources of the profit changes. We investigate the industry thoroughly from three points of view: the overall industry over time; the power generation sector by company; and the transmission and distribution sectors of the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). Next, we measured how the profits from productivity growth were distributed to consumers, fuel suppliers, employees, and company owners. The results suggest that a more reasonable price system for both wholesale and consumer prices needs to be implemented prior to the privatization and deregulation of the Korean electricity industry.     

The impact of electricity market liberalization in Turkey: “Free consumer” and distributional monopoly cases

Electricity sector has grown substantially in Turkey since the early 1960s as a result of rapid industrialization and urbanization. The vertically integrated state-owned company had a legally established monopoly on the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Turkey. With the support and encouragement of international organizations like the World Bank, Turkey has initiated a comprehensive program to liberalize and privatize the electricity market in 2001. The liberalization of the electricity market in Turkey started in the distribution side of the market. The distribution network was divided into 21 distribution regions and in each of these, separate – initially state-owned – distribution companies have been authorized to distribute and sell electricity. The plan envisaged to complete privatization of all distribution companies until the end of 2006. This study compares the welfare implication of privatization of the distribution networks by comparing two extreme cases, a pure regional distributional monopoly case and a representative pure “free” consumer case, with a benchmark case of administered price regulation. For this purpose, we develop a simulation model of the Turkish electricity system, and use the data on generation and distribution costs. Our simulation analysis shows that substantial welfare losses occur if the distributional companies behave as regional monopolists. Our findings reiterate the importance of regulation and market design.     

Power sector reform in Maharashtra,India

In early 1990 the power sector in India required an initial set of reforms due to the scarcity of financial resources and its deteriorating technical and commercial efficiency. The Indian power sector is now going through a second stage of reforms in which restructuring of electric supply utilities has taken place. The Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) initiated reforms in 2005 by dividing the state electricity board into four separate companies. In this paper, the situations that led to the reform of the MSEB and the scope of the work required for an action plan initiated by the state electricity distribution company in the context of the proposed Key Performance Index are discussed. The post-reform status of the distribution company is analyzed with selected key parameters. The study also analyzes the electricity supply model implemented and the effect of a multi-year tariff plan as one of the key milestones of the tariff structure. The various new projects implemented by the distribution company to improve consumer services and the reform experiences of the other states are discussed, along with the future scope of the present reform process.     

Electricity sector restructuring in India: an environmentally beneficial policy?

It has been suggested that reforms to the electricity sector in developing countries encouraging the entry of independent power producers (IPPs) are likely to result in environmental improvements similar to those recently made in a number of developed economies. The present paper evaluates this claim by examining the experience of the Indian power sector. It finds that recent investments by IPPs have reduced the pollution-intensity of electricity generation in the country. Yet they have not brought the significant gains seen in countries such as the UK, nor are they likely to in the foreseeable future. This is largely a product of the nature and context of electricity sector reform in India which is less favourable to environmentally beneficial outcomes. Accordingly, the paper concludes by suggesting that the environmental benefits of restructuring are not automatic, but depend on the existence of an enabling structural, institutional and regulatory framework.     

Power sector reform and distributed generation in sub-Saharan Africa

As part of the current liberalisation process sweeping sub-Saharan Africa, power sectors across the region are being scrutinised and restructured. A critical aspect of the reform is improving access to electricity by large segments of the population. Many in the continent are, therefore, looking at the issue of distributed generation as opposed to grid extension and the role of renewable energy in this process. The purpose of this paper is to inform this discussion by two means. First, after examining the concept of distributed — or decentralised — generation in a region where urban population is, on average, 30–40 per cent of the region's population, the authors discuss the issues involved, drawing on the experiences of other countries whether there are any apparent ‘preconditions’ for success. Second, the role renewable energy can play in this process and the extent to which lessons from other parts of the world might be transferable to the countries of sub-Saharan Africa is assessed. The paper concludes by investigating the prospects for distributed generation in power sector reform in sub-Saharan Africa, arguing that though lessons from other parts of the world will be helpful, they cannot be all-determining.     

Reforming the Energy Market and Utilization of Electrical Energy

The main objective of the present study is to provide an overview of reforming the Turkish energy market, including the electricity production and consumption values of Turkey and restructuring in the eight European Union countries. Turkey's electricity demand has been growing very rapidly. It has increased from about 47 TWh in 1990 to some 142 TWh in 2003, and it is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Besides this, Turkey's total electricity capacity increased from 16,318 MW in 1990 to 31,846 MW in 2002. Restructuring of the electricity sector in the country has started with the establishment of the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) upon the law (no. 4628) that came into force on March 3, 2001. The Energy Market Regulatory Board, which runs the EMRA, was commissioned on November 19, 2001. In May 2002, the EMRA issued drafts of the Energy Market Licensing Regulation and the Electricity Market Tariffs Regulation, and these regulations went into effect in August 2002. The Electricity Market Implementation Manual was also issued by the EMRA in April 2003. At present, not only the electricity sector, but the whole Turkish energy sector is in a dynamic change.     

Welfare impacts of electricity generation sector reform in the Philippines

This paper reports an empirical investigation into the welfare impacts of the introduction of private sector participation into the Philippines electricity generation sector, by liberalizing the market for independent power producers (IPPs) during the power crisis of 1990–1993. This study uses a social cost and benefit analysis. The main benefits came from IPPs, who contributed to resolving the crisis, and promoted economic and social development. Consumers and investors were net gainers, while the government lost and there was an air pollution cost. The paper concludes that the reform with private sector participation increased social welfare.     

Financial optimization in the Turkish electricity market: Markowitz's mean-variance approach

Electricity constitutes the input into many products that produced by industry and used by people. Hence, it can be considered as a product or service that has vital importance in human life and economy. Since it has such special properties of instantaneous production and consumption obligation and unfeasible storage, electricity market is not like other markets. In a competitive electricity market, generation company faces price risks and delivery risks. So that risk management is an important part of a generation company and can deeply effect companies’ profitability. This paper focuses on electricity generation asset allocation between bilateral contracts, such as forward contracts, and daily spot market, considering constraints of generating units and spot price risks. The problem is to find the optimal portfolio based on known electricity generation total costs, bilateral contract prices, it employed Turkish historical balanced market hourly system marginal and day-ahead hourly market prices between of 2006 and 2011. There are limited studies about portfolio optimization in electricity markets in literature and this paper should be considered frontier study taking spot market's hourly prices separately as risky assets. Markowitz mean-variance optimization which is claimed to be the beginning of modern portfolio theory in financial sector is used to demonstrate this approach. Mean-variance optimization has been successfully applied to all cases that modeled for electricity market. Some suggestions for future work are also listed in this paper.     

Study on business models of distributed generation in China

Along with the implementation of electricity sales-side reform and incremental power distribution investment liberalization under China’s new round of electricity market reform, the main subjects of distributed generation investment, construction, and operations have become more various, and the approaches as well as the ways that distributed generation takes part in the market have been more flexible. How to operate distributed generation economically and efficiently in this market environment has become an urgent issue to be addressed. Based on the domestic development situation of China’s distributed generation, this paper introduces typical existing business models of distributed generation, and elaborates the correlation between electricity market reform and business models of distributed generation in depth in combination with the contents of electricity market reform. At last, several business models of distributed generation which are feasible to be implemented in China have been proposed under the new electricity market reform based on successful international distributed generation operation experiences in the terms of stimulating stakeholders’ participation in the investment and operations of distributed generation. Characteristics of these recommended models are compared and analyzed as well.     

On-grid electricity tariffs in China: Development,reform and prospects

With the introduction of market-oriented measures in China's power sector in the mid-1980s, electricity sale prices to the grid companies—on-grid electricity tariffs—became the focus of the energy industry, thus affecting all related stakeholders, including fuel suppliers, power generators and end-use consumers. A number of changes have gradually been undertaken in terms of electricity tariff settings and their implementation to address specific requirements of the expansion of the power industry at each stage of its development. On-grid electricity tariffs had been used as a key lever to attract investment in power generation at an early stage of reform and then to encourage competition in the power industry. In response to the rising concerns about environmental protection and the promotion of clean energy utilisation, tariffs have progressively been developed for renewable electricity generation, which has contributed to massive expansion of the renewable power industry in China. This paper reviews key milestones of the development of on-grid electricity tariffs in China, examines the tariff-setting mechanisms of coal-fired power plants and renewable power generation, analyses the factors associated with the adjustments of the tariff levels and discusses the options for further reform and more effective electricity pricing.     

Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being −0.09 and −0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.     

The national and international impacts of coal-to-gas switching in the Chinese power sector

We evaluate the national and international impacts—on energy consumption and production, trade, and economic activity—of Chinese coal-to-gas switching in the electric power sector. We find that assumptions about growth rates in electricity generation from renewables are the key determinant in evaluating the economic consequences for coal-to-gas switching in China. The ability to supplement natural gas generation with renewables leads to smaller reductions in Chinese and global economic activity than the alternatives.     

The Brazilian experience of rural electrification in the Amazon with decentralized generation - The need to change the paradigm from electrification to development

There are at least 607 thousand households in the Brazilian Amazon that need to be attended with some form of regular electricity service. These households are not attended by the electricity sector through its electricity distribution companies and most of them have some form of precarious decentralized electricity generation that is not registered or regulated in the institutional framework. Diverse initiatives were taken by Brazilian government to attend these household through alternatives that relied on locally available renewable energy. This paper accesses this initiatives of rural electrification in the Brazilian Amazon. First an overview of the problems of rural electricity are discussed and its specificities in the Brazilian Amazon. Then the Brazilian institutional framework that organizes the decentralized electricity generation is described with its various limitations. The diverse initiatives undertaken to attend the rural communities in the Amazon since the 1990s are described, as well as how these initiatives are linked to the policies for rural electrification. The results shows that it can be inferred that sole market mechanisms are not sufficient to guarantee economic sustainability of these projects. This can be one of the reasons why traditional electricity distribution companies showed the lack of interest in promoting rural electrification with other means than grid extension. The most successful projects had financed efforts to integrate the generation of electricity into local development initiatives in order to guarantee sustainability and used substantial part of funding for local mobilization and organization. It needs a paradigm chance by treating these initiatives as local development initiatives and promoting alternative ways for its implementation through partnership between local new actors in the electricity sector and government and implementing policy on a local municipal level.     

Incentive regulation of electricity distribution networks: Lessons of experience from Britain

This paper reviews the recent experience of the UK electricity distribution sector under incentive regulation. The UK has a significant and transparent history in implementing incentive regulation in the period since 1990. We demonstrate the successes of this period in reducing costs, prices, and energy losses while maintaining quality of service. We also draw out the lessons for other countries in implementing distribution sector reform. We conclude by discussing the place of incentive regulation of networks within the wider reform context, the required legislative framework, the need for appropriate unbundling, the importance of quality of service incentives, the regulatory information requirements, and the role of sector rationalisation.