Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region

The purpose of this paper is to measure the ecological footprint (EF) of energy and electricity consumption by the residents of an Irish city-region, in terms of the land area required to sequester carbon emissions from energy and electricity consumption and to support energy infrastructure and development. The EF was also used to analyse the impact of potential scenarios and policies and results were compared with the business as usual (BAU) projection in order to identify the optimal policy measure. It was found that the total EF for domestic energy and electricity consumption by Limerick residents increased by 7% from 0.125 global hectares (gha) per capita in 1996 to 0.134 gha per capita in 2002.     

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region

In this paper, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to assess 6 policy measures or scenarios relating to residential heating energy and domestic electricity consumption, using an Irish city-region as case study. The analysis was undertaken using a modified version of MCDA based on the NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments) software and involved a decision output based on a mix of qualitative and quantitative assessment, which offered a ranking of options. It was concluded that Scenario 2, which proposes reducing energy and electricity consumption, was the most preferable option and Scenario 3, which proposes increasing the contribution of wood waste, was the least preferable option. This suggests that absolute reduction and demand management should be prioritised over fuel substitution or renewable energy technologies.     

The California energy approach: From conventional to alternative energy sources

The paper outlines the work of a State Government Agency, the California Energy Commission, which is now completing its major analytical task—forecasting California's future energy demand five, ten and twenty years hence and formulating an optimal state strategy for energy production and conservation.The method used in earlier demand forecasts was simply to extrapolate the trend of past years. These forecasts, prepared mainly by the utilities, lead to alarmingly high figures.By contrast, the approach of the Commission was to study, in depth, the evolution of the demand of each category of end users. Supplemented by a realistic assessment of the impact of various conservation measures and by extensive discussions with different groups of concerned citizens, the Commission's approach produced much lower and quite manageable estimates of future energy demand.In devising an energy supply strategy, the Commission postulated a mix of conventional and alternative energy technologies of proven practicability and diverse lead times. Providing such latitude in the choice of energy options increases the flexibility of the state's strategy to cope with possible unforeseen developments.At this point, the Commission feels that the time is ripe to shift the emphasis of its work from the analysis to the implementation stage.     

WEC energy policy scenarios to 2050

At the World Energy Congress held in Sydney in September 2004, the World Energy Council (WEC) decided—in a follow-up to the scenario work Global Energy Perspectives last produced in 1998—to draw up new global energy scenarios for the period up to the year 2050. Three fundamental changes were resolved, compared with previous work. Policy scenarios were to be worked out, bottom up, based on the specific knowledge of the WEC members from the various world regions. Second, plausible basic assumptions were to be made for the scenarios to gear them to the WEC's sustainability goals of accessibility, availability, and acceptability (the three As). Finally, the scenarios were to have a sufficiently long time horizon and contain clear recommendations for political measures designed to reach the outcomes aimed—at by 2050.     

Clean energy scenarios for Australia

Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a ‘fossil-fuel dependent’ country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO₂ emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO₂ emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy.     

Singular energy trends in California

California's energy-use patterns differ significantly from U.S. patterns. The reasons relate to the state's indigenous oil industry and the importance of the transportation end-use sector that in 1983 consumed 40% of the primary energy supplied to the state. We compare in detail energy use in California for 1973 and 1983; we also compare U.S. and California patterns for 1983 alone. Whereas energy usage decreased slightly over the decade, it did so concurrently with a 20.5% increase in population. Total consumption in most end-use sectors remained near 1973 levels, suggesting that conservation was important. An exception is seen in transportation use: an increased number of vehicles on the road was not totally offset by better vehicle mileage.In contrast to the nation as a whole, coal is used only for coking in California; nuclear energy comprises a smaller portion of the energy slate in California than in other states; and renewables, especially geothermal, play a small role (2%). Currently, power imported from adjoining states—either as purchases or from out-of-state coal-fired plants partially owned by California utilities makes up 36% of total power transmitted to customers. Next in importance is hydroelectric power, followed by natural gas. In the U.S. the latter sources comprise only 12–14% each of total supply, whereas coal makes up 54%.Although geothermal energy promises to increase substantially in the state, and other options, such as wind power, cogeneration, and solar energy, will also contribute to a limited extent, California's energy situation will undoubtedly be dominated by liquid fuels in the foreseeable future.     

A techno-economic study for a hydrogen storage system in a microgrid located in baja California,Mexico. Levelized cost of energy for power to gas to power scenarios

In this work a techno economic feasibility study is carried out to implement a Hydrogen based Power to Gas to Power (P2G2P) in a Microgrid, located in a rural area in Baja California, Mexico. The study aims to define the feasibility to store energy throughout seasons with this novel alternative using an electrolyzer to produce green hydrogen from excess renewable energy in winter, to store it during months and re inject it to the grid as electricity by a fuel cell in the high energy demanding season. The Microgrid was modeled in Homer software and simulations of the P2G2P lead to Levelized Cost of Energy data to compare between the P2G2P scenarios and the current diesel-battery based solution to complete the high demand by the community. This study shows that using hydrogen and fuel cells to substitute diesel generators it is possible to reduce CO₂ emissions up to a 27% and that in order for the P2G2P to be cost competitive, the fuel cell should reduce its cost in 50%; confirming that, in the medium to long term, the hydrogen storage system is a coherent alternative towards decarbonization of the distributed energy generation.     

Sensitivity of southern California wind energy to turbine characteristics

Using output from a high‐resolution meteorological simulation, we evaluate the sensitivity of southern California wind energy generation to variations in key characteristics of current wind turbines. These characteristics include hub height, rotor diameter and rated power, and depend on turbine make and model. They shape the turbine's power curve and thus have large implications for the energy generation capacity of wind farms. For each characteristic, we find complex and substantial geographical variations in the sensitivity of energy generation. However, the sensitivity associated with each characteristic can be predicted by a single corresponding climate statistic, greatly simplifying understanding of the relationship between climate and turbine optimization for energy production. In the case of the sensitivity to rotor diameter, the change in energy output per unit change in rotor diameter at any location is directly proportional to the weighted average wind speed between the cut‐in speed and the rated speed. The sensitivity to rated power variations is likewise captured by the percent of the wind speed distribution between the turbines rated and cut‐out speeds. Finally, the sensitivity to hub height is proportional to lower atmospheric wind shear. Using a wind turbine component cost model, we also evaluate energy output increase per dollar investment in each turbine characteristic. We find that rotor diameter increases typically provide a much larger wind energy boost per dollar invested, although there are some zones where investment in the other two characteristics is competitive. Our study underscores the need for joint analysis of regional climate, turbine engineering and economic modeling to optimize wind energy production. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social assessment of waste energy utilization scenarios

The Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) constructed four energy scenarios for the year 2005 and 2020 referring to the German State of Baden-Württemberg. All these scenarios are based on the promise of the German government to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions by 25% in the year 2005, and there is a commitment of a 45% reduction for the year 2020. These reduction goals can be reached only if energy conservation measures and waste energy utilization are part of the energy policy structure. This paper describes a group evaluation process of these scenarios. Major stakeholder groups such as the unions, the energy industry, public utilities and others, were asked to develop criteria for evaluating these scenarios and they use these criteria to perform a multi-attribute evaluation process. Although the scenarios with a large amount of waste heat utilization received favorable ratings by almost all groups, their chance of being implemented was regarded as rather unrealistic.     

Design scenarios for integrated renewable energy systems

The wide variety of renewable energy resources and their highly site-specific and variable nature, coupled with different types and qualities of energy needs, pose a challenging problem to the designers of integrated renewable energy systems (IRES). This paper discusses some typical design scenarios and the formulation of designs using the knowledge-based design tool IRES-KB with the aid of KAPPA-PC development tools. A remote village with no electrical grid connection is chosen for this study since renewables are most likely to make their greatest impact in such locations. The versatility of IRES-KB is brought out in the discussion of the results     

Climate change and energy scenarios in Asia-Pacific developing countries

Worldwide increases in energy use are the largest source of rising emissions of CO₂. In the past, Europe and North America were the regions with the largest emissions. The rapid rate of industrialization, combined with population growth, has led to substantial increases in energy use in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific. If present trends continue, the region will become the largest emitter of CO₂ from the use of fossil fuels within the next two or three decades. In this paper, we examine some alternate energy scenarios for the individual countries of the region and the potential for reducing CO₂ emissions from energy use to the year 2010.     

California offshore wind energy potential

This study combines multi-year mesoscale modeling results, validated using offshore buoys with high-resolution bathymetry to create a wind energy resource assessment for offshore California (CA). The siting of an offshore wind farm is limited by water depth, with shallow water being generally preferable economically. Acceptable depths for offshore wind farms are divided into three categories: ≤20 m depth for monopile turbine foundations, ≤50 m depth for multi-leg turbine foundations, and ≤200 m depth for deep water floating turbines. The CA coast was further divided into three logical areas for analysis: Northern, Central, and Southern CA. A mesoscale meteorological model was then used at high horizontal resolution (5 and 1.67 km) to calculate annual 80 m wind speeds (turbine hub height) for each area, based on the average of the seasonal months January, April, July, and October of 2005/2006 and the entirety of 2007 (12 months). A 5 MW offshore wind turbine was used to create a preliminary resource assessment for offshore CA. Each geographical region was then characterized by its coastal transmission access, water depth, wind turbine development potential, and average 80 m wind speed. Initial estimates show that 1.4–2.3 GW, 4.4–8.3 GW, and 52.8–64.9 GW of deliverable power could be harnessed from offshore CA using monopile, multi-leg, and floating turbine foundations, respectively. A single proposed wind farm near Cape Mendocino could deliver an average 800 MW of gross renewable power and reduce CA's current carbon emitting electricity generation 4% on an energy basis. Unlike most of California's land based wind farms which peak at night, the offshore winds near Cape Mendocino are consistently fast throughout the day and night during all four seasons.     

Exploring alternative energy strategies

One major message of this paper, and of this Conference for that matter, is that it is essential to widen our agendas so that all possible alternative energy strategies can be explored. In any case, over the next 50 years or so several tens of terawatts of power have to be supplied, whether we consider a high-energy or a low-energy demand scenario. This is a formidable task that requires the development of all potential energy resources at small scales and large scales, and as decentralized and centralized units. Thus, the major task ahead is to determine the “best” mix of energy resources that makes economic sense whilst guaranteeing a livable environment. With the proper support, the solar-based renewable energy resources could play an important role in the transition from a consumptive to an endowment energy economy. A global installed capacity between 10 and 20 TW by 2030, and even an all-solar energy economy by the end of the next century, are considered definite possibilities. The pursuit of an energy path of such magnitude is subject to severe constraints. Beside the technological and economic questions, future energy strategies must, more than in the past, address themselves to the societal, political, institutional, resource base, environmental and other sectoral issues, including those of food, health, urbanization, and industrialization. The agenda for the energy debate must further include such vital issues as time frames and implications for future generations; international relations and questions of interdependence; North-South equity and vulnerability; cost-benefit and risk-benefit analyses; issues of centralization and decentralization; and questions of lifestyles and progress. Virtually all of these issues of the ongoing energy debate are controversial, making a choice difficult. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that the key ingredients of choice—prudence and wisdom—cannot be treated in a rigorously scientific manner. In such a state of uncertainty, it seems prudent to adopt a flexible energy strategy that can accommodate as many energy options at as many scales as practical.     

Clean energy investment scenarios using the Bayesian network

Clean energy investment decisions are getting more difficult to make due to public reactions. In order to support the policies in the field, analysis of the positive conditions is needed. This research aims to construct the positive scenarios for nuclear energy and renewable energy investments in the state of Oregon, USA. The Bayesian network technique will be used to create the scenarios. Oregon has a wide range of renewable energies; hence, investment is becoming more complex. Criteria affecting the decisions are taken from the literature, but were reviewed with energy authorities in Oregon in order to define the interactions.     

Importance of biomass energy as alternative to other sources in Turkey

Energy plays a vital role in socio–economic development and raising standards of human beings. Turkey is a rapidly growing country; both its population and economy are expanding each year so its energy demand increases correspondingly and this increasing demand has to be met for keeping sustainable development in the economy and raising living conditions of mankind. Although Turkey has many energy sources, it is a big energy importer. Turkey has a lot of potential to supply its own energy, which could be put to use in order to avoid this energy dependence. Additionally, Turkey is a country that has an abundance of renewable energy sources and can essentially provide all energy requirements from indigenous energy sources. Biomass is one of the most promising energy sources considered to be alternative to conventional ones.     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

Catching lightning for alternative energy

The article reviews the current literature related to lightning and makes a case for using lightning as an alternative source of energy. Objections to using lightning as an alternative source of energy are listed. Current literature is reviewed and articles are suggested as useful for building a tower, or using rockets or lasers to target a strike, or for quantifying a lightning strike.     

The nuclear energy alternative in Arab countries

A general survey is presented of energy supplies in the Arab countries. Technologies to exploit nuclear resources are needed in order to ensure a secure energy future. The advantages of introducing nuclear energy into the Arab countries are discussed. The main features of the CANDU (Canada deuterium-uranium) reactors are presented with an assessment concerning their suitability for energy supplies and developing programs. The main differences between the CANDU and PWR (pressurized water reactor) are highlighted.