Potential for reduction of CO2 emissions and a low-carbon scenario for the Brazilian industrial sector

This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO₂ emissions estimated here can reach 43%, by adopting energy-efficiency measures, materials recycling and cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewables or less polluting energy sources and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO₂ over a period of 20 years (2010–2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in many cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives. Brazil is already carrying out various actions toward the mitigation measures proposed here, but there are still substantial barriers to realize this potential. Therefore, a collective effort from both the public and private sectors is needed for the country to achieve this low-carbon scenario.     

Energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in five Latin American countries: Changes from 1990 to 2006 and perspectives

This study examines the primary energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela during the period 1990-2006. It also reviews important reforms in the energy sector of these countries as well as the promotion of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES). Using a decomposition analysis, results indicate that even though significant reductions in energy intensity have been achieved in Colombia, Mexico and in a lesser extent in Brazil and Argentina, the reduction of CO₂ emissions in these countries has not been significant due to an increased dependence on fossil fuels in their energy mix. Although the Latin American region has an important experience in the promotion of EE programs and renewable sources, the energy agenda of the examined countries focused mostly on the energy reforms during the analyzed period. The policy review suggests that further governmental support and strong public policies towards a more sustainable energy path are required to encourage a low carbon future in the region.     

Federal policies for renewable electricity: Impacts and interactions

Three types of policies that are prominent in the federal debate over addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are a cap-and-trade program (CTP) on emissions, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for electricity production, and tax credits for renewable electricity producers. Each of these policies would have different consequences, and combinations of these policies could induce interactions yielding a whole that is not the sum of its parts. This paper utilizes the Haiku electricity market model to evaluate the economic and technology outcomes, climate benefits, and cost-effectiveness of three such policies and all possible combinations of the policies. A central finding is that the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reductions from CTP can be significantly greater than those from the other policies, even for similar levels of renewable electricity production, since of the three policies, CTP is the only one that distinguishes electricity generated by coal and natural gas. It follows that CTP is the most cost-effective among these approaches at reducing CO₂ emissions. An alternative compliance payment mechanism in an RPS program could substantially affect renewables penetration, and the electricity price effects of the policies hinge partly on the regulatory structure of electricity markets, which varies across the country.     

Light vehicle energy efficiency programs and their impact on Brazilian CO2 emissions

This paper analyses the impact of an energy efficiency program for light vehicles in Brazil on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Several energy efficiency programs for light vehicles around the world are reviewed. The cases of Japan and Europe were selected for presentation here given their status as current and future world leaders in the control of passenger vehicle fuel consumption. The launching of the National Climate Change Plan and the pressure on the Brazilian car industry due to the world financial crisis make it a good time for the Brazilian government to implement such a program, and its various benefits are highlighted in this study. Three scenarios are established for Brazil covering the 2000–2030 period: the first with no efficiency goals, the second with the Japanese goals applied with a 10 years delay, and the third, with the Japanese goals applied with no delay. The consequences of a vehicular efficiency program and its middle and long-term effects on the consumption of energy and the CO₂ emissions are quantified and discussed. The simulation results indicate that efficiency goals may make an important contribution to reducing vehicular emissions and fuel consumption in Brazil, compared to a baseline scenario.     

Electricity sector reforms in four Latin-American countries and their impact on carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy

This paper analyzes carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions related to energy consumption for electricity generation in four Latin-American countries in the context of the liberalization process. From 1990 to 2006, power plants based on renewable energy sources decreased its share in power installed capacity, and the carbon index defined as CO₂ emission by unit of energy for electricity production stayed almost constant for all countries with the exception of Colombia, where the index reduced due to increase in hydroelectricity generation in the last years. The paper also presents a new set of policies to promote renewable energy sources that have been developed in the four countries. The paper concludes that restructuring did not bring about environmental benefits related to a decrease in CO₂ emissions because this depend on the existence of committed policies, and dedicated institutional and regulatory frameworks.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.     

The impact of CO2 taxation on the configuration of new refineries: An application to Brazil

This article evaluates the impact of pricing CO₂ emissions over the configuration of new refinery complexes in their conceptual phase. Two refineries’ schemes were simulated through a linear programming optimization model in order to compare the optimum configuration obtained before and after the input of different CO₂ prices. The cases analyzed represent refining projects to be located in Brazil, a growing market for fuels and petrochemical feedstocks, as well as an oil producing country with rising crude exports. After 2012, emerging countries, such as Brazil, may adopt carbon emission reduction targets. Therefore, it is worth analyzing the impact of pricing CO₂ emissions in these countries, where the majority of new refining projects will be located. Our findings indicate that the initial refinery configurations proposed are quite rigid technologically for CO₂ prices up to US$ 100/t CO₂. For CO₂ prices higher than US$ 100/t CO₂, refineries reduced their emissions by increasing the consumption of natural gas used to produce hydrogen, and through changes in the original configurations towards less-energy consuming process units. Promising technological advances, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), can also diminish the rigidity of the model and facilitate actions to curb carbon emissions.     

The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO₂ and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2–14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO₂ under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO₂), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO₂ increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO₂.     

Potential emissions reductions from grandfathered coal power plants in the United States

A two-tiered approach to environmental regulation in the United States has long allowed existing coal-fired power plants to emit air pollutants at far higher rates than new facilities. The potential for reducing the emissions of existing coal-fired facilities is quantified via two hypothetical scenarios: the installation of available retrofit control technologies, or the imposition of New Source Performance Standards (NSPS). Available control technologies could have reduced year 2005 emissions by 56% for NO_x and 72% for SO₂ for a cost of $11.3 billion/year (2004$), likely yielding far larger benefits to human health. Slightly more emission reductions would be achieved by upgrading or replacing existing facilities to achieve the NSPS emissions limits required of all new facilities. Potential CO₂ reductions are more speculative due to the emerging nature of carbon capture and efficiency retrofit technologies. Recent policies such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule would likely achieve most of the NO_x and SO₂ reduction potential identified by the scenario analyses for grandfathered facilities. However, escalating obstacles to new generation capacity may perpetuate the reliance on an aging fleet of power plants, resulting in higher rates of coal consumption and CO₂ emissions than could be achieved by new or retrofit units.     

Revisiting CO2 emissions convergence in G18 countries

This study revisits whether CO₂ emissions converge in G18 countries over the period of 1950–2013. To work on this empirical analysis, we employ a more powerful quantile unit root test with per capita CO₂ emissions. While conventional unit root tests fail to reject convergence in CO₂ emissions in these G18 countries, quantile unit root test results demonstrate CO₂ emissions converged in 5 of these G18 countries (i.e., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, and India). Our empirical results have important policy implications for the governments of G18 countries to direct efficient and effective energy policies to reduce the CO₂ emissions.     

Review of policies and measures for energy efficiency in industry sector

Energy efficiency in industry plays key roles in improving energy security, environmental sustainability and economic performance. It is particularly important in strategies to mitigate climate change. The evidence of great potential for cost-effective efficiency-derived reductions in industrial energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have prompted governments to implement numerous policies and measures aimed at improving their manufacturing industries’ energy efficiency. What can be learned from these many and varied initiatives? This paper provides foundation for policy analysis for enhancing energy efficiency and conservation in industry, by surveying more than 300 policies, encompassing about 570 measures, implemented by governments in IEA countries, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. It outlines the measures’ main features, their incidence of use, and their connections with specific technical actions and key stakeholders (i.e., how and where measures affect the energy efficiency of industry). It also examines the key features underlying the measures’ success: (1) potential to reduce energy use and CO₂ emissions cost-efficiently; (2) ease of policy development, execution and assessment and (3) ancillary societal effects.     

Nuclear and clean coal technology options for sustainable development in India

Due to the growing energy needs along with increasing concerns towards control of greenhouse gas emissions, most developing countries are under pressure to find alternative methods for energy conversion and policies to make these technologies economically viable. Most of the energy is produced from fossil fuel in India which is not a sustainable source of energy. In this paper Indian power sector has been examined by using MARKAL model for introduction of clean coal and advanced nuclear technologies with implementation of energy conservation potential. The result shows that application of clean technologies gives energy security but not significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. When clean technologies apply with energy conservation a huge amount of CO₂ can be reduced and also economically viable. Three scenarios including base case scenario have been developed to estimate the resource allocations and CO₂ mitigation. The clean technologies with maximum savings potential shows 70% CO₂ reduction in the year 2045.     

Upstream vs. downstream CO2 trading: A comparison for the electricity context

In electricity, “downstream” CO₂ regulation requires retail suppliers to buy energy from a mix of sources so that their weighted emissions satisfy a standard. It has been argued that such “load-based” regulation would solve emissions leakage, cost consumers less, and provide more incentive for energy efficiency than traditional source-based cap-and-trade programs. Because pure load-based trading complicates spot power markets, variants (GEAC and CO₂RC) that separate emissions attributes from energy have been proposed. When all generators and consumers come under such a system, these load-based programs are equivalent to source-based trading in which emissions allowances are allocated by various rules, and have no necessary cost advantage. The GEAC and CO₂RC systems are equivalent to giving allowances free to generators, and requiring consumers either to subsidize generation or buy back excess allowances, respectively. As avoided energy costs under source-based and pure load-based trading are equal, the latter provides no additional incentive for energy efficiency. The speculative benefits of load-based systems are unjustified in light of their additional administrative complexity and cost, the threat that they pose to the competitiveness and efficiency of electricity spot markets, and the complications that would arise when transition to a federal cap-and-trade system occurs.     

Carbon inequality at the sub-national scale: A case study of provincial-level inequality in CO2 emissions in China 1997–2007

This study asks whether sub-national inequalities in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions mirror international patterns in carbon inequality using the case study of China. Several studies have examined global-level carbon inequality; however, such approaches have not been used on a sub-national scale. This study examines inter-provincial inequality in CO₂ emissions within China using common measures of inequality (coefficient of variation, Gini Index, Theil Index) to analyze provincial-level data derived from the IPCC reference approach for the years 1997–2007. It decomposes CO₂ emissions inequality into its inter-regional and intra-regional components. Patterns of per capita CO₂ emissions inequality in China appear superficially similar to, though slightly lower than, per capita income inequality. However, decomposing these inequalities reveals different patterns. While inter-provincial income inequality is highly regional in character, inter-provincial CO₂ emissions inequality is primarily intra-regional. While apparently similar, global patterns in CO₂ emissions are not mirrored at the sub-national scale.     

Coupling of energy and agricultural policies on promoting the production of biomass energy from energy crops and grasses in Taiwan

This paper examined promotion programs and implementing regulations that provide a framework for the application of energy and agricultural policies for the local energy crops cultivation by the reactivation of fallow land (about 100,000 ha) and their utilizations in the bioenergy production in Taiwan. The contents were thus addressed on current energy supply and biomass energy production, estimation of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use (consumption) using the Reference Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, national energy goal in biomass energy supply in the near future, and government policies and measures for encouraging bioenergy production and consumption. For the promotion of biofuels, the incentive programs were initiated in the period of 2006–2011. The potential benefits of the program include the upgrade of industrial investment in the bioenergy plants, the reactivation of fallow land (about 100,000 ha), the mitigation of CO₂ emissions, and so on. Concerning the utilization of napier grass (a potential energy grass) as biomass energy (electricity generation) for co-firing, its impacts on ambient air quality and non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (i.e., CH₄ and N₂O) emissions were also discussed in the paper.     

Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO₂-equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers.     

Renewable energy policy performance in reducing CO2 emissions

The growth of fossil fuel power production and the consequent increase in the level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have set off an alarm signal worldwide. Different policies have been implemented to incentivize the development of renewable energy sources with the goal of reducing CO₂ emissions. Notwithstanding the different policies contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the incentives provided for renewable energy, a relevant question is which of these is the most efficient. However, within the context of oligopolistic competition, the answer is very sensitive to the operation of the system. In particular, significant changes in the results can be observed when considering or ignoring reserve constraints.     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Using information to close the energy efficiency gap: a review of benchmarking and disclosure ordinances

Building energy use accounted for 38 % of total US carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2012, and roughly half of those emissions were attributable to the commercial building sector. A new policy that has been adopted in 15 US cities and one US county is a requirement that commercial and sometimes also multifamily residential building owners disclose their annual energy use and benchmark it relative to other buildings. We discuss these nascent policies, summaries of the data that have been collected so far, and how to evaluate whether they are having an effect on energy use and CO₂ emissions. Missing or imperfect information is a contributor to the energy efficiency gap, the finding that many low-cost options for improving energy efficiency fail to be adopted. These new laws may be an important step in closing the gap in the commercial and multifamily building sectors, but careful evaluation of the programs will be essential.