Water demand versus supply in Saudi Arabia: current and future challenges

Saudi Arabia is facing a chronic water-shortage problem. Demand far exceeds the sustainable yield of both conventional and non-conventional water resources. The resulting demand–supply gap is being bridged through groundwater depletion. In this paper, demand–supply gaps for the coming 20 years are projected under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. Future sustainable water yields are calculated and allocated to projected water demand in the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. The study shows that Saudi Arabia will not be able to bridge the demand–supply gap in the near future. Intensive water demand management measures are needed in all sectors to minimize future demand–supply gaps, especially focused on the largest water consumer: the agricultural sector.     

Water-Energy-Food nexus: framing the opportunities,challenges and synergies for implementing the SDGs

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus has been promoted by a number of prominent and influential global policy actors over the last couple of years. Increasingly, the concept has emerged as a major research, policy and planning instrument to govern and address demand and supply challenges across four main development sectors: water, energy, food and ecosystems. These sectors are often considered within an interdependent relationship and intertwined framework for balancing tradeoffs and identifying synergies and opportunities. This article frames the water-energy-food nexus as a crucial policy and planning instrument for strengthening cross-sector interactions and highlights the opportunities and challenges for doing so. The article is divided into four main sections. The first section describes the major linkages between water and energy and shows that the links between water and energy goes far beyond where water and energy are needed for each other. The second section describes other nexus dimensions beyond water and energy to include dimensions such as food, ecosystems and climate change for example. The key challenges in pursuing the nexus perspective in integrated planning and management of natural resources are presented in the third section and lastly, as a way of concluding, the article outlines some of the measures that are needed to operationalize the nexus perspective. Considering the implications of this analysis for the implementation of SDGs would be an important undertaking going forward for the operations of development agencies and the means of ensuring that the interdependences among sectors are taken into account in policy formulation and implementation.     

Water Resource Management in the Mediterranean Basin

In arid and semi-arid regions of the M editerranean, fresh water resources are finite and most of the economically viable development of these resources has already been implemented. The situation has worsened further owing to the increasing population and the associated expansion of urbanization and economic activities, all of which require more water and thus impose a tremen dous strain on this already limited and fragile water resource. Following the traditional technique of increasing supply is questionable. The alternative option is to manipulate the demand side for all water use sectors, particularly the agricultural one, which accounts for up to 80% of water consumption. In the Mediterranean region there is no question about the crucial im portance of integrated demand management aiming at efficiency, equity and long-term water security, using the tools that the legal and econ omic policy, scientific and technological advancement have made available.     

基于SD模型的干旱区城市水资源供需分析——以新疆克拉玛依市为例

为确定克拉玛依市水资源系统存在的问题,实行严格的水资源管理制度,落实"三条红线"控制指标,利用系统动力学模型对克拉玛依市水资源供需状况进行定量模拟,并在对水资源供需平衡的敏感性影响因子进行分析的基础上,提出了传统型、一般治污型、强化治污型、一般节水型、强化节水型和综合型等6种模拟方案。几个方案的模拟结果表明:(1)传统型方案的水资源供需缺口年均增加0.173×10~8m~3,2030年供需缺口将达到2.59×10~8m~3;(2)强化治污型方案的水资源供需缺口年均增加0.171×10~8m~3,2030年供需缺口将达到2.57×10~8m~3;(3)只依靠治污不能满足水资源的需求量,而节水能够有效地改善水资源供需状况;(4)2030年,一般节水型和强化节水型方案的供需缺口分别为1.89×10~8m~3和1.2×10~8m~3,综合型方案的供需缺口会进一步降低为1.18×10~8m~3。根据上述结果,提出了将治污与节水相结合的管理措施,这将对改善克拉玛依市水资源的供需状况,维持水资源的可持续发展提供支撑。     

Developing Novel Approaches to Tracking Domestic Water Demand Under Uncertainty—A Reflection on the “Up Scaling” of Social Science Approaches in the United Kingdom

Climate change, socio-demographic change and changing patterns of ordinary consumption are creating new and unpredictable pressures on urban water resources in the UK. While demand management is currently offered as a first option for managing supply/demand deficit, the uncertainties around demand and its’ potential trajectories are problematic for water resources research, planning and policy. In this article we review the ways in which particular branches of social science come together to offer a model of ‘distributed demand’ that helps explain these current and future uncertainties. We also identify potential strategies for tracking where the drivers of change for demand may lie. Rather than suggest an alternative ‘demand forecasting’ technique, we propose methodological approaches that ‘stretch out’ and ‘scale up’ proxy measures of demand to inform water resources planning and policy. These proxy measurements could act as ‘indictors of change’ to water demand at a population level that could then be used to inform research and policy strategies. We conclude by arguing for the need to recognise the co-production of demand futures and supply trajectories.     

Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands

Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’ benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders’ benefits.     

An alternative solution of the water shortage problem in Libya

In Libya there is a growing awareness of increasing demand for fresh water while fossil groundwater supply is limited. This situation of water supply has become more problematic with rapidly increasing population and low rainfall. Hence soon after the discovery of fresh groundwater in the deserts of southern Libya, the local authority has made huge efforts to address its water deficit problems, mainly through the implementation of “The Great Manmade River Project” to sustain its economy. Especially the agriculture sector exceeds its traditional supplies. The Libyan authority began to design and install the hydraulic infrastructure needed to withdraw and transport this fossil water to various demand sites along its Mediterranean coast where most of the population lives and where the water is used. There is an over-exploitation of fossil groundwater resources to meet the irrigation demands as a result of adapting a self-sufficing policy in food. Rapid development of agricultural activity, expansion of irrigated areas and over irrigation practices will lead to more depletion of water resources since most of the country's groundwater resources are non-renewable. The supply-driven approach for water management has demonstrated its inability to deliver a substantial degree of water sustainability on the national Libyan level. Despite the strenuous efforts made by the country, it still faces serious water deficits due to continuously increasing water demands beyond the limits of its available water resources. As pressure on water converges on the country's fossil water resources, an immediate reconsideration of agricultural water extractions is needed and appropriate actions have to be implemented in response to its huge consumption. This policy aims at rescuing the present water situation and at avoiding serious environmental and economical crises. Reorganisation of the water consumption pattern, to maintain the country's standard of living and to ensure the economical security for the future generation is drastically needed. This paper considers the country's water management that requires water policy reforms, with emphasis on supply and demand management measures and improvement of the legal and institutional provisions. This could be achieved by reviewing agricultural water policies in order to minimise some local deficits in water resources and to avoid water quality deterioration in the coastal areas. Developing additional non-conventional sources of water supply needs to be considered. This should be supported by creating authorised water institutions lead by a high-professional staff and enabling them in making the appropriate legislation and decisive measurements to allocate water among consumptive sectors as well as to ensure the protection of the environment.     

A framework for understanding energy for water

Abstract

This article offers a framework for understanding how energy is used to meet water demand in countries. Specifically, the relationships between energy use and water scarcity, the location of renewable water resources, and aggregate water demand are explored. The article also examines how policy options such as water price reforms, agriculture subsidies and crop elimination may influence the energy use and energy intensity of water withdrawals. Conclusions suggest that while policy options exist, certain uncontrollable factors such as severe water scarcity or substantial freshwater abundance limit the ability of some countries to significantly improve the aggregate energy efficiency of water provision.     

Tourism as tragedy? Common problems with water in post-revolutionary Nicaragua

This paper examines the increased demand placed on limited water resources by a rapidly growing tourism sector in Playa Gigante, Nicaragua. Results from field campaigns suggest that recharge of the local aquifer may not meet burgeoning tourism demands for water. This paper also points to initial conflicts over water between locals and tourism operations, which are further complicated by ineffective implementation of national water policies and the common pool nature of groundwater. The conclusion discusses the need for more extensive research and better implementation of water policy through community governance and collaboration.     

人类活动影响下的陕西省水资源脆弱性评价

随着人口的增长,水资源供需矛盾成为制约陕西省社会经济可持续发展的重要因素之一,人类活动对陕西省水资源脆弱现状的影响越来越大。通过收集陕西省水资源、人口以及社会经济相关数据,采用函数评价方法,对陕西省10个省辖市及杨凌示范区进行水资源脆弱性评价并简要分析影响因素。结果表明:陕西省水资源脆弱性的空间差异较大,关中地区面临更严重的水资源供需问题;渭南、咸阳、杨凌3市(区)属于极脆弱区,商洛水资源脆弱性属于弱脆弱区;陕西省水资源开发利用率水资源脆弱性与水资源开发利用率存在较好的正相关关系。缩小水资源空间差异,提高水资源开发利用率对于陕西省水资源管理工作势在必行。     

基于 STELLA 的水资源供需系统模拟和预警分析——以山东省为例

科学预测区域水资源供需变化并提出合理的应对方案对区域可持续发展有重要意义,但现有研究多未合理考虑区域的生态需水量。本文以山东省水资源供需系统为研究对象,考虑城市生态建设及河流生态需水,利用系统动力学软件STELLA模拟预测了山东省2015-2030年水资源供需状况的动态变化,利用支撑度构建水资源短缺预警等级,并进行预警分析;基于敏感性分析结果从重视经济、节水、开源、综合协调4个角度提出发展应对方案。结果表明:当前山东省生态缺水严重,至2030年水资源供需差额将达90×108m3,并有10×108m3会影响到当地生产生活,全省将处于Ⅲ级缺水状态;重视经济和节水型方案均不利于山东省可持续发展,而综合协调型方案将建立兼顾社会经济与生态环境的水资源利用模式,为缓解水资源供需矛盾、优化水资源配置提供科学依据,对水生态文明建设也具有重要意义。     

Water Resources Management Strategies for Adaptation to Climate-Induced Impacts in South Africa

This paper focuses on the development of a framework for strategy considerations for water resources management in South Africa to meet the development goals in the municipal and agricultural sectors. The north western part of South Africa experiences severe periods of drought and according to the climate change projections, will be most vulnerable to future climate induced water supply stress. A framework for selecting appropriate strategies is presented. A series of potential adaptation strategies most suitable for long term adaptation are discussed. These include both supply and demand side strategies. Barriers and obstacles to implementing these strategies include human and financial resource deficiencies at local municipal and community levels.     

丰台区水资源耦合配置模型研究

以丰台区水资源配置系统为研究对象,在分析供需水的基础上,构建双层优化模型,其中从环境角度体现对污染物排放量的严格控制,从经济角度体现区域水资源系统经济效益最大化。最终,体现区域水资源数量和质量的统一和不同需水部门之间的合理配置,并达到环境目标和经济目标的集成化。基于模糊满意度算法求解模型,模型结果表明:丰台区各规划水平年的供水量基本上可以满足各用户的需水要求,其中南水北调工程将在区域水资源配置系统中发挥重要作用。进一步地将双层规划模型和两个传统的单目标优化模型的结果进行对比分析,以期为不同决策者提供的规划方案。     

洞庭湖区供水安全问题

随着气候变化和人类水土资源开发活动影响的深入,洞庭湖区面临着严重的供水安全问题。现结合供水安全的含义,从水量、水质变化以及供水设施等方面,分析洞庭湖区水量的变化以及水质状况演变趋势,并从科学调水用水、水源保护、法规制度的制定等3方面提出了相应的对策与措施,为科学的解决本地区的供水安全问题提供依据,以期能够引起人们对洞庭湖区供水安全方面问题的重视。     

Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Projected Climatic Data for Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia

Long term water demand forecasting is needed for the efficient planning and management of water supply systems. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted in this paper to quantify the uncertainties in long term water demand prediction due to the stochastic nature of predictor variables and their correlation structures. Three future climatic scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and four different levels of water restrictions are considered in the demand forecasting for single and multiple dwelling residential sectors in the Blue Mountains region, Australia. It is found that future water demand in 2040 would rise by 2 to 33 % (median rise by 11 %) and 72 to 94 % (median rise by 84 %) for the single and multiple dwelling residential sectors, respectively under different climatic and water restriction scenarios in comparison to water demand in 2010 (base year). The uncertainty band for single dwelling residential sector is found to be 0.3 to 0.4 GL/year, which represent 11 to 13 % variation around the median forecasted demand. It is found that the increase in future water demand is not notably affected by the projected climatic conditions but by the increase in the dwelling numbers in future i.e. the increase in total population. The modelling approach presented in this paper can provide realistic scenarios of forecasted water demands which would assist water authorities in devising appropriate management strategies to enhance the resilience of the water supply systems. The developed method can be adapted to other water supply systems in Australia and other countries.     

对水资源保护工作的再认识

简述人与自然界关系的三个阶段:人类完全屈服于自然的阶段;主动利用和征服自然的阶段;人与自然和谐共处的阶段。认为现在正处在第二阶段向第三阶段缓慢过渡的阶段。提出:①水资源的保护要以保护(水)生态系统的良性循环为基本出发点;②应确立适度开发的基本原则;③提高效率和效益是保护水资源的重要环节;④禁止对水生态系统的污染和破坏;⑤尊重自然规律的水生态系统保护与修复。最后指出,近期水资源保护工作应以建立全面、系统地保护水功能区水质、水量和水生态保护法规和技术体系为保障,以促进水生态系统的良性循环为基本目标,以保障供水安全为重点,完善以流域为单元、流域与区域结合的流域水资源综合监管体系。     

中国水资源利用发展趋势合理性分析

对我国水资源条件笔全国未来需水量变化趋势进行分析，按照供水和经济发展水平将全国划分为５个类型区，并探求它们的缺水性质，估测其远景需水量。我国的水资源总量虽可满足社会、经济可持续发展的需要，但前景不容乐观。解决的出路是合理开发、节约保护和优化配置水资源。     

Mortality awareness and water decisions: a social psychological analysis of supply-management,demand-management and soft-path paradigms

The beliefs underlying the water supply-management, demand-management, and soft-path paradigms are examined. Two questions are considered. First, can social psychology’s insights on mortality salience help explain the desire to control water and the dominant water supply-management paradigm? Second, can those insights also help explain the limited progress of demand management and water soft paths? We propose that mortality salience helps explain why individuals and societies seek to control water supply and, by extension, deny their connection to nature and limit consciousness of physical vulnerability. We briefly consider the implications of this perspective for water research, advocacy and policy.     

陕北地区供用水结构变化及需水量预测

陕北地区水资源短缺,随着能源化工基地的建设,供需矛盾日益尖锐.本文通过分析陕北地区的水资源及其可利用量分布规律,以及1980-2010年间的供用水结构变化规律,根据省市相关规划目标及行业用水标准,预测了该地区未来水平年的需水量.结果是陕北地区2020年和2030年的需水量分别为19.95亿m3和27.65亿m3.因此现阶段16亿m3的水资源可利用量不能满足陕北地区的未来需水要求.     

现代水资源规划若干问题及解决途径与技术方法(四)

生态空间占用是一种定量测度人类对自然资源利用程度对生态系统产生的压力大小的模型,用来回答人类对自然生态服务的需求和自然所提供的生态服务之间的差距,判断区域可持续发展的状态。在对现代水资源规划内涵剖析和对该模型研究综述的基础上,全面分析了该方法应用于流域尺度研究的必要性与可行性,并指出了当前有助于推动流域可持续性研究的4个应用领域:流域可持续发展状态的总体评价,流域“生态经济系统”发展能力评估,流域水资源利用的生态空间占用分析和水污染的生态影响分析,以期推动水资源规划中宏观经济、水资源与生态环境耦合分析的进步。