Comprehensive modelling for approaching the Kyoto targets on a local scale

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MARKAL comprehensive model in the development of coherent medium-term strategies and sound climate protection policies at local level. The local case study (Val d’Agri, Basilicata region, Italy) discusses the possible role of local communities in the achievement of the national objectives derived by the Kyoto Protocol, investigating the traditional sectors responsible for air pollution and providing a full picture of the main energy and material flows. A scenario by scenario analysis was performed to analyse the response of the modelled system to the introduction of an exogenous constraint on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The main effects are presented with reference to fuel mix, technology choice, real market prices and reduced costs of competing options. The comparison of the solutions obtained for the different scenarios is useful to point out the effects of the CO₂ constraint on the total system cost and on the emission levels of other atmospheric pollutants. A further multiobjective optimisation was performed to analyse the effects of combined environmental constraints (CO₂ and particulate) on the overall system cost as well as in terms of marginal costs.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis and cost–benefit analysis of alternative scenarios for the power generation sector in Greece

This paper examines four mutually exclusive scenarios for the expansion of the Greek electricity system developed by official authorities and representing alternative views on meeting electricity demand. The aim is to encompass all positive and negative side-effects characterizing the electricity generation technologies assumed to participate in each scenario and emphasis is given to the particular role of renewable energy sources which represent a major differentiating factor between them. The calculation of economic, technical and environmental performances of the examined scenarios for the year 2010 shows that electricity planning is a complicated task since improvements in one policy target are accompanied by losses in others. In order to resolve this conflict, the scenarios are comparatively evaluated with two decision support techniques, multicriteria decision analysis and cost–benefit analysis, which are capable of broadening the strict boundaries of a financial analysis while avoiding intuitive solutions that are often applied in practice. Following the two completely different evaluation approaches, it is confirmed that the scenario assuming the highest penetration of renewable energy sources is the best compromise configuration for the Greek power generation sector.     

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios.     

Exploration of resource and transmission expansion decisions in the Western Renewable Energy Zone initiative

The Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) initiative brings together a diverse set of voices to develop data, tools, and a unique forum for coordinating transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection. In this paper we use a new tool developed in the WREZ initiative to evaluate possible renewable resource selection and transmission expansion decisions. We evaluate these decisions under a number of alternative future scenarios centered on meeting 33% of the annual load in the Western Interconnection with new renewable resources located within WREZ-identified resource hubs. Our analysis finds that wind energy is the largest source of renewable energy procured to meet the 33% RE target across nearly all scenarios analyzed (38–65%). Solar energy is almost always the second largest source (14–41%). We find several load zones where wind energy is the least cost resource under a wide range of sensitivity scenarios. Load zones in the Southwest, on the other hand, are found to switch between wind and solar, and therefore to vary transmission expansion decisions, depending on uncertainties and policies that affect the relative economics of each renewable option. Further, we find that even with total transmission expenditures of $17–34 billion these costs still represent just 10–19% of the total delivered cost of renewable energy.     

ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies

Energy models are considered as valuable tools to assess the impact of various energy and environment policies. The ACROPOLIS initiative, supported by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency, used up to 15 energy models to simulate and evaluate selected policy measures and instruments and then compare their impacts on energy systems essentially in terms of costs of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction and energy technology choice. Four case studies are formulated considering policies and measures on renewable portfolio schemes and internationally tradable green certificates, emissions trading and global GHG abatement target, energy efficiency standards and internalisation of external costs. The main focus of the project is on the electricity sector. From a large set of quantified results, ACROPOLIS provides an international scientific consensus, on some key issues, which could be useful in assessing and designing energy and environment policies at the world, European and national/regional levels. It concludes that the Kyoto targets (and their continuation beyond 2010 in specific scenarios) could be achieved at a cost around 1% of GDP through global emissions trading, indicating also that this flexibility mechanism is a more cost-effective instrument for GHG mitigation than meeting the goal domestically without trade. It demonstrates that internalising external costs through a price increase reduces local pollutants (SO_x, NO_x, and others) and it produces other benefits such as triggering the penetration of clean technologies in addition to the curbing of CO₂ emissions.     

A model for the development of a power production system in Greece,Part I: Where RES do not meet EU targets

This paper studies the electricity production system of the Greek Interconnected Electric Production System using a model created with the software package WASP-IV. The period of study is from 2009 to 2030. It consists of three scenarios using three different criteria: energy, environmental and economic. The three scenarios are the business as usual, the lignite and the natural gas. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for the annual growth rate of electricity consumption and load demand. The paper examines how the three criteria change, when there are no other energy sources beyond those already in use (lignite, oil, natural gas, biomass, solar, wind and hydropower) with no CO₂ capture policies and with the electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources not to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020. In a second paper, three other scenarios examine production with the Renewable Energy Sources to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020.     

A model for the development of a power production system in Greece,Part II: Where RES meet EU targets

This paper studies the electricity production system of the Greek Interconnected Electric System using a development model created with the software package WASP-IV. The period of study is from 2009 till 2030. It consists of three scenarios using three different criteria: energy, environmental, and economic. The three scenarios are the Renewable Energy Source (RES), the lignite–RES, and the natural gas–RES. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for annual growth rate of electricity consumption and load demand. It is considered that there are no other energy sources beyond those already in use (lignite, oil, natural gas, biomass, solar, wind, and hydropower), no CO₂ capture policies are implemented, and electricity production from RES meets targets of the European Union in 2020. The present paper completes the study started with the paper “A model for the development of a power production system in Greece, Part I: RES do not meet EU targets”. It is shown that with regard to fossil fuels, the use of natural gas is the best choice. The use of RES, though environmentally friendly, is an expensive solution.     

Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe

An integrated approach to climate change and regional air pollution can harvest considerable ancillary benefits in terms of environmental impacts and costs. This is because both problems are caused to a large extent by the same activity (fossil fuel combustion). Substantial ancillary benefits were found for regional air pollution (SO₂, NO_x, VOC and particulate matter) of implementing the Kyoto Protocol (intended to control greenhouse gas emissions) in Europe. For instance, while three different scenarios on Kyoto implementation were found to reduce European CO₂ emissions by 4–7%, they also reduced European emissions of SO₂ by 5–14% compared with a no Kyoto policies case. The magnitude of ancillary benefits depends on how flexible mechanisms and surplus emission allowances are used in meeting the Kyoto targets. The total cost savings for implementing current policies for regional air pollution of the Kyoto Protocol are of an order of 2.5–7 billion Euro. In all cases, this is in the order of half the costs of the climate policy (4–12 billion Euro). Using flexible mechanisms reduces emissions of air pollutants for Europe as a whole even further than domestic implementation (e.g. 10–14% versus 5% for SO₂ emissions), but the reductions are shifted from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe and Russia. The use of surplus emission allowances to achieve the Kyoto targets decreases the ancillary benefits, in particular for the latter group of countries (e.g. unprotected area against acidification increases from 1.3 to 1.7 million ha).     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

INDOOR SIMULATION OF A BASIN-TYPE SOLAR STILL

In this paper we develop an applied general equilibrium framework for assessing socio-economic impacts of alternative renewable energy policies and apply it to the bioenergy sector. The policy scenarios are assessed in a comparative static analysis. The numerical simulation results allow us to assess and compare welfare and distributional impacts of alternative renewable energy policies. Our empirical findings suggest that the bioenergy sector in Poland would benefit most from an indirect tax reduction. According to our simulation results, reducing the fossil energy sectors’ subsidies would be the second best policy option.     

Decarbonizing Europe's power sector by 2050 — Analyzing the economic implications of alternative decarbonization pathways

The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The transition towards a low-carbon economy implies the almost complete decarbonization of Europe's power sector, which could be achieved along various pathways. In this paper, we evaluate the economic implications of alternative energy policies for Europe's power sector by applying a linear dynamic electricity system optimization model in over 36 scenarios. We find that the costs of decarbonizing Europe's power sector by 2050 vary between 139 and 633 bn €₂₀₁₀, which corresponds to an increase of between 11% and 44% compared to the total system costs when no CO₂ reduction targets are implemented. In line with economic theory, the decarbonization of Europe's power sector is achieved at minimal costs under a stand-alone CO₂ reduction target, which ensures competition between all low-carbon technologies. If, however, renewable energies are exempted from competition via supplementary renewable energy (RES-E) targets or if investments in new nuclear and CCS power plants are politically restricted, the costs of decarbonization significantly rise. Moreover, we find that the excess costs of supplementary RES-E targets depend on the acceptance of alternative low carbon technologies. For example, given a complete nuclear phase-out in Europe by 2050 and politically implemented restrictions on the application of CCS to conventional power plants, supplementary RES-E targets are redundant. While in such a scenario the overall costs of decarbonization are comparatively high, the excess costs of supplementary RES-E targets are close to zero.     

A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of enhanced research and development (R&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. It applies a methodology using the concept of Two-Factor-Learning, which quantitatively links trends in technology cost to both accumulated R&D investments and production volumes. The impacts of the latter on the energy sector are then simulated in a consistent manner with the POLES global energy model. On this basis, it compares the total system costs of an assumed increase in worldwide R&D investments that for the EU are in line with proposals made in its European Strategic Energy Technology Plan to a baseline development. It finds that an increase in research efforts at a global level will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, thus accelerating their market entry. When comparing two scenarios that both fulfil the EU's 2020 energy and climate objectives and differing only in their R&D investment levels, the reduced technology costs allow EU support policies for renewables and carbon values to be reduced, and the cumulative (discounted) benefit of the accelerated research efforts is positive in the long term.     

Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy)

Approaching the national Kyoto Protocol (KP) targets involves a re-definition of the actual configuration of local energy systems. This study deals with a local scale application of the IEA-MARKAL models generator, in which the anthropogenic system of Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) is investigated to support the definition of coherent long-term strategies and sound climate protection policies. A scenario by scenario analysis points out the behaviour of the optimal mix of fuels and technologies in the presence of carbon dioxide emissions constraints. Trade off curves and reduced costs analyses outline the most effective actions for contributing to the national KP targets, with particular emphasis on the interventions in Civil (Residential, Commercial & Services) and waste management sectors.     

Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model

This study evaluates the overall effects of the present Italian Renewable Energy Supply of Electricity (RES-E) obligation and compares the contribution of each expected RES-E to the economic equilibrium mix resulting from computable economic equilibrium scenarios. The impact of the policies has been evaluated by means of a model of the Italian energy–environment system built with the MARKAL/TIMES methodology, which has been developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project of the International Energy Agency (IEA/ETSAP). Since the development of RES-E helps energy security, climate mitigation and the distribution of energy production revenues across the country, this study evaluates also an alternative scenario assuming a progressive increase of the RES-E obligation. Both scenarios are then compared with the targets fixed for each RES by the Italian White Paper on renewable energy source. Eventually the effectiveness of the RES-E policies implemented through the green-certificate mechanism are compared with the obligation to improve the efficiency of end-use devices fed by electricity and natural gas. Contrary to green-certificates policies, White certificates obligations increase energy security and GDP at the same time, because in principle they force end users to more rational choices.     

Post-Kyoto energy consumption strategies for the Greek interconnected electric system

The liberalization of the Greek electric market (Law 2773/99, updated with Laws 3175/2003 and 3426/2005 for incorporating Directive 2003/54 into the Greek legislation) is in its final structural transformation, which includes the fact that from 1.7.2007 each customer can select its electricity provider. This new status together with the procedure towards the formation of a post-Kyoto plan, raise the need of examining different energy saving strategies in the consumption side for evaluating their economic and environmental consequences. Such strategies may be useful for the decision makers or the electricity retail companies. This paper examines the influence of several post-Kyoto electricity consumption strategies in the Greek interconnected electric system for the period 2005–2025. The aim of the paper is to be used as a decision makers’ tool for investigating the potential of electricity consumption policies. The results show that policies related either to seasonal peak demand control, or targeting at the total electric consumption lead to significant gains and emission reduction. Moreover the influence of factors, such as the weather conditions, the discount rate of the energy investments, the fuel prices evolution and the consumers’ behavior linkage with oil prices are examined.     

CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment

The European Union introduced CO₂ emission standards on cars as an obligation to manufacturers to reduce carbon footprint of cars in EU transportation. The car industry is already marketing low carbon emitting technologies to adjust to the 95 gCO₂/km target set for 2020. An alternative policy option is setting energy efficiency standards, measured as energy consumption per kilometre. A policy based on a long-term commitment on continuously decreasing standards and the choice of the focus between CO₂ or energy efficiency will strongly influence car technology choice. The aim of this paper is to assess these candidate policies for the EU in terms of effectiveness, costs and emission implications until 2050 on the basis of scenarios quantified using the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy economic transport model. The scenarios assume various configurations of the standards and the assessment draws on comparisons to a Reference scenario which does not strengthen standards after 2025. The analysis shows that restructuring the EU car fleet towards significant reductions of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is affordable provided that preconditions are met regarding technology progress and development of refuelling/recharging infrastructure. CO₂ standards allow a diversified use of technologies, while efficiency standards are more “risky” favouring a single technology.     

Economical and environmental analysis of grid connected photovoltaic systems in Spain

In this article an economic and environmental study is carried out on PV solar energy installations connected to the Spanish electrical grid system. The study has been performed on installations situated in the city of Zaragoza (with an irradiation value approximately equal to the average value for Spain).Initially, an economical study is performed, proposing different scenarios where different values of interest rate and energy tariffs are considered. The following parameters are used to determine the profitability of a PV installation: the Net Present Value and the Pay-Back Period. Furthermore, the environmental benefits of PV systems connected to the grid have been evaluated. This has been accomplished using the Life Cycle Analysis theory of the systems, calculating the recuperation time of the invested energy, the contamination or emissions avoided and the externality costs. Finally the possible effects of the application of the Kyoto Protocol have been studied.     

Modeling Lebanon’s electricity sector: Alternative scenarios and their implications

This paper is concerned with modeling possible future paths for Lebanon’s electricity future and evaluating them. The baseline scenario (BS) reflects the business-as-usual state of affairs and thus describes the most likely evolution of the power sector in the absence of any climate change-related or other policies. Two alternative scenarios are examined in contrast to the BS; the renewable energy scenario (RES) and the natural gas scenario (NGS). Using the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software we conduct a full-fledged scenario analysis and examine the technical, economic, and environmental implications of all scenarios.From an economic standpoint as well as from an environmental perspective both alternative scenarios are superior to the baseline. Hence, the results of the simulation show that the alternative scenarios are more environmentally and economically attractive than the BS. They would help Lebanon meet its social, environmental, and economic development goals, while at the same time providing other unquantifiable benefits that are discussed further in the paper. Anticipated barriers to the shift in energy mix from conventional sources to renewable energy sources are also presented and discussed     

Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

This study was performed as a Swedish contribution to the program of the International Energy Agency (IEA) concerning research and development on the production of hydrogen from water. A common framework of the joint IEA-group was applied throughout the work. A survey of the study is given in the report.The study projects future hydrogen markets during the period 1980–2025 in the investigated sectors, estimates the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods, and evaluates the expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers.A general scenario for the economic and industrial development in Sweden during the period was evaluated. The average increase in gross national product was assumed to become 1.6% per year and equal over all society sectors except for residential housing construction and the total energy supply, which are assumed to increase with 0.81 and 0.90% per year, respectively.Three different energy scenarios based on the economic scenario were developed with the following characteristics: an alternative based on nuclear energy; an alternative based on renewable indigenous energy sources; and an alternative based on the present energy picture with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. Within each of the three scenarios, an analysis was made of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply sides of the agreed sectors: chemical industry; steel industry; peak power production; residential and commercial heating; and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also taken into consideration. The results have been used to estimate the market penetration of hydrogen in the regarded sectors.