项目区域风险的模糊综合评价方法研究

针对项目区域风险诸多非精确量且属性复杂的评价条件，建立了系统、完整的项目区域风险评价指标体系。基于多层模糊推理，结合层次分析法提出了一种多属性、多层次、综合考虑项目区域风险因素的三级模糊综合评价方法。这种方法按风险来源作为风险因素对项目区域风险进行分类，每大类再按其属性分层次评价，并依次将评价结果进行合成后得出最终的综合评价排序。最后通过一个简单算例说明了该方法的具体步骤及其有效性。     

基于FMEA的临床路径医疗风险成本估计

为了解决目前医疗风险成本研究主要关注医疗风险结果成本,忽视临床路径医疗风险成本估计的问题,提出了一种基于可靠性理论的临床路径医疗风险成本估计的方法。为了验证该方法的性能,以北京市某三级甲等医院食道癌手术临床路径为例,运用事故树分析（FTA）、失效模式与影响分析（FMEA）明确临床路径关键风险因素,并结合临床路径风险频率及严重度评分表与平均风险消除成本,对临床路径医疗风险成本进行量化。计算结果表明：该医院食道癌手术术中加权平均风险消除成本为14 710元,全年食道癌手术术中加权平均医疗风险消除成本为397 290元。所提出方法可以有效地估计临床路径医疗风险成本,并为实际应用提供指导。     

设备材料采购过程中廉洁风险防范的探索与实践

本文结合设备材料采购廉洁风险防控管理与实践,对国有电力企业设备材料采购廉洁风险及其主要特征进行客观分析,通过梳理和规范采购流程,提出运用现代管理理念和科学管理方法,建立应对机制、实施管理监控分级管理对策和措施,从而可有效化解和防范企业设备材料采购腐败风险。     

焦耳—汤姆逊效应引发硅烷的潜在操作风险与对策研究

介绍了硅烷的焦耳—汤姆逊效应引起的调压阀故障,由此产生的风险及解决措施。     

PFI项目的风险识别与分析

PFI项目是私人融资启动参与公共工程建设,与政府合作。这类项目通常建设时间长、技术含量高并且投入资金大,项目的执行过程中涉及的多角度和多方面的项目管理内容。本文主要研究了项目的执行过程中的风险识别和分析问题,使管理者能够运用各种方法对尚未发生的潜在的及存在的各种风险进行系统归类,并总结出项目所面临的风险。     

荔枝包装的风险识别与分析

目的解决在荔枝包装过程中风险源难于辨识及定量分析的难题。方法提出一种基于霍尔三维因素空间和模糊故障树的风险识别与定量分析方法。构建荔枝包装的安全事件、时空结构(工位)、事故致因等3个维度的因素集,通过矩阵之间的映射关系和计算分析得到风险基本事件集合。建立荔枝包装的故障树模型,并对风险基本事件进行专家问卷评价。采用梯形模糊数及左右模糊排序法将专家的评判语言转化为风险概率值。结果经计算得到荔枝包装事故发生概率(0.0409)及风险基本事件的概率重要度。结论提出了强化标准化建设,加大技术投入等防范风险事故发生的措施。     

基于成本控制思想的现代图书馆采购流程分析

网络的信息交换技术为图书馆业务流程整合带来革命性的变化。借鉴会计学中“成本控制”理念,引入EDI数据交换技术,对现代图书馆图书采购流程进行优化,对采购成本控制提出建议与分析。     

考虑土质边坡多失效模式的区域概率风险分析方法

针对现有边坡风险分析仅考虑单一失效模式及风险分析结果难以被工程师理解等问题,提出了考虑边坡多失效模式的区域概率风险分析方法。首先给出了区域概率的概念,建立了以区域概率定量表征边坡稳定性的方法,推导了基于区域概率的边坡系统风险评价公式,探讨了该公式的适用性。在此基础上采用直接蒙特卡罗模拟计算边坡区域失效概率。最后以一不排水黏性土坡为例阐明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明：区域概率风险分析方法为表征边坡的关键失效区提供了一种简单、直接的可视化工具,为工程师制定合理的边坡加固设计方案提供了参考依据。基于区域概率风险分析方法的边坡系统风险评价公式不仅能够有效地回避边坡风险评价中多滑面间安全系数及滑块体积之间相关性计算问题,而且能够准确地量化边坡多破坏模式的系统风险。传统的风险评价方法可能显著低估边坡系统风险,使得边坡设计方案偏危险。边坡失效概率最大的滑面不一定是边坡失效风险最大的滑面,在边坡加固设计中,失效风险较大的滑面也应该予以关注。     

区域能源站利用Energy-bus、地源热泵及水蓄能技术的可行性分析

以上海某区域集中供冷、供热项目为例,从技术、经济两方面对Energy-bus技术、地源热泵技术及水蓄能技术应用于区域能源站的可行性进行了分析。     

基于危险分析与风险评价的液压提升机安全设计

介绍了液压提升机的安全性能要求,对液压提升机进行了危险分析和风险评价,确定了各子系统的危险分值,得到了安全设计中必须高度关注的子系统;进行了各子系统的安全可靠度的预计与分配,并简要分析了子系统的安全设计要点,为液压提升机的安全可靠性分析与设计提供了依据。     

Fuzzy FMEA in risk assessment for test and calibration laboratories

In this study, it is aimed to compare traditional and fuzzy FMEA in identifying areas that may pose risks and need improvement in Test and Calibration Laboratories. Within this scope, FMEA is used in ranking the possible risks. One hundred ninety-nine failures are detected in 91 inspections, carried out in the Test and Calibration Laboratories. Since FMEA uses experts’ evaluations, which are considered subjective, fuzzy logic is implemented to the approach where the evaluations are presented with linguistic variables. The comparison of FMEA and fuzzy FMEA showed that there exists a high correlation between these two analyses and the order of priority based on the Fuzzy Risk Priority Number calculation is overlapping with the Risk Priority Number sequence. Fuzzy FMEA can also be considered when the evaluations are not trustworthy or incomplete. Therefore, this study can be addressed as an example of how fuzzy implementation to FMEA substantially be used instead of traditional FMEA when there exist qualitative, subjective or incomplete evaluations, or in cases where traditional FMEA has troubles in practice.     

An interval probability-based FMEA model for risk assessment: A real-world case

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an effective quality tool to eliminate the risks and enhance the stability and safety in the fields of manufacturing and service industry. Nevertheless, the conventional FMEA has been criticized for its drawbacks in the evaluation process of risk factors or the determination of risk priority number (RPN), which may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a novel FMEA method based on rough set and interval probability theories. The rough set theory is adopted to manipulate the subjectivity and uncertainty of experts' assessment and convert the evaluation values of risk factors into interval numbers. Meanwhile, the interval exponential RPN (ERPN) is used to replace the traditional RPN due to its superior properties, eg, solving the problems of duplicate numbers and discontinuity of RPN values. Furthermore, an interval probability comparison method is proposed to rank the risk priority of each failure mode for avoiding the information loss in the calculation process of RPN. Finally, a real case study is presented, and the comparison analysis among different FMEA methods is conducted to demonstrate the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed FMEA method.     

FMEA在商品包装设计中的应用

介绍了FMEA的思想和应用特点,以啤酒包装为例分析了商品流通过程中包装所起的作用和可能出现的失效模式,并讨论了其影响;通过风险矩阵等方法对这些潜在的风险进行了分析,针对可能造成的影响给出了相应的措施,分析了其效果。以商品在流通中的物流过程为对象,提供了包装设计的具体步骤,对包装的绿色设计和最优应用提供了一条新颖的思路。     

Exploring a cobot risk assessment approach combining FMEA and PRAT

Collaborative robots are an emerging technology falling within the scope of Industry 4.0 and based on the concept of Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC). Unlike traditional industrial robots, collaborative robots are used in shared workspaces with no safety fences. Hence, prospective hazardous contacts need to be avoided or mitigated through a risk assessment. The normative standards such as ISO TS 15066 suggest a list of common hazards, but do not guide the robot system user through the risk assessment process. To address this shortcoming, this paper proposes a practical eight steps risk assessment approach, resulting in a risk priority list. In order to provide an accurate, practical, quantitative and supportive tool for HRC environments, the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Proportional Risk Assessment technique (PRAT) techniques are proposed for risk assessment. The two techniques mentioned above are combined in the suggested new methodology, highlighting both their benefits and disadvantages. The proposed methodology is applied with positive results to a collaborative brick-lifter case study.     

Time-varying FMEA method based on interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory

This paper proposes a time-varying failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method based on interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory, which not only improves the limitations in evaluating, weighting, and ranking but also considers the effect of time change. The process of distinguishing time changes enables the FMEA to have dynamic recognition capability, enabling it to identify critical failure modes more accurately. The interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory is used to deal with the uncertainty of intuitionistic linguistic evaluations. The advantages of two traditional approaches are combined to improve the weight determined method. Risk factors are divided into subjective and objective types. In the subjective risk factors, which are severity (S) and detection (D), the consistency of judgment is used as the acceptance standard. In the objective risk factors, which are occurrence (O), the time-varying characteristics are considered. The occurrence in a certain period is expressed as the integral of failure intensity in the time period. Interval-valued spherical fuzzy exponential risk priority number is proposed as the criterion for measuring the priority of failure modes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using an example of spindle.     

失效模式影响分析在品牌安全管理中的应用

把FMEA用于品牌安全管理体系,要点在于区分品牌结构层次的安全和功能层次的安全,从而约定品牌的结构层次作为失效模式的观察对象,品牌功能层次为失效影响的观察对象。根据FMEA管理的思想,把由一个原因所产生的失效模式定义为一个失效模式,则该原因发生的概率、该原因导致失效模式发生的概率和失效模式的影响分别对应失效模式的发生度、检测度和严酷度。依此建立的FMEA管理表格和FMEA管理流程,可由企业的品牌管理人员实施,以对品牌安全进行管理。     

一种综合赋权的改进FMEA风险评估方法

针对传统故障模式和影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis, FMEA)方法中的未考虑风险因子权重以及风险因子权重难确定这一问题,提出一种综合赋权的改进FMEA风险评估方法。该方法首先通过FMEA团队明确评估对象和FMEA范围,然后列出所有潜在故障模式,对故障模式进行打分,得到所有的专家打分评估表,再通过语言变量转化为直觉模糊数。由层次分析法确定主观权重,由数据本身确定客观权重,使用直觉模糊混合加权算子(intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid weighted, IFHW)算子集结评价信息,得到所有的故障模式的得分函数,最后基于风险最大化选取每个故障模式的最大分数,进行排名,得到最终的故障模式风险顺序。通过对静电纺丝设备进行FMEA分析,并与其他方法进行比较,验证了所提方法的可行性。     

An alternative evaluation of FMEA: Fuzzy ART algorithm

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a technique used in the manufacturing industry to improve production quality and productivity. It is a method that evaluates possible failures in the system, design, process or service. It aims to continuously improve and decrease these kinds of failure modes. Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the learning algorithms without consultants, which are developed for clustering problems in artificial neural networks. In the FMEA method, every failure mode in the system is analyzed according to severity, occurrence and detection. Then, risk priority number (RPN) is acquired by multiplication of these three factors and the necessary failures are improved with respect to the determined threshold value. In addition, there exist many shortcomings of the traditional FMEA method, which affect its efficiency and thus limit its realization. To respond to these difficulties, this study introduces the method named Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory (Fuzzy ART), one of the ART networks, to evaluate RPN in FMEA. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FMEA在过程管理中的应用

2000版的ISO9000标准明确提出过程管理的方法。分析了质量管理体系的现状和实施过程管理的必要性。把失效模式及后果分析（FMEA）作为过程管理的一种工具提出来，并通过一个实例具体介绍了在过程管理中使用FMEA的步骤。     

Fuzzy-based risk priority number in FMEA for semiconductor wafer processes

Semiconductor wafer manufacturing processes are considered to be complex and require considerable manpower and financial investment. Effective control to promote wafer yield is thus a very important issue. Many computational problems in traditional failure mode approaches, such as variable selection and data collection, are far too dependent on the experience of engineers, with a lack of specifically quantified values. Therefore, there are significant differences between the results of research and the actual processes. Although several researchers have revised the failure mode computation, the occurrence results continue to differ from the actual quantified values. The potential failure mode in semiconductor wafer manufacturing processes is effectively discussed using linguistic fuzzy variables to replace the severity and detection in the failure mode for re-calculation and sorting, along with the occurrence acquired from the wafer processes yield change. Based on the results of engineering experiments, the use of a risk priority number can effectively overcome the problem of a lack of objectivity in the traditional failure mode and effect analysis, as well as accurately distinguish the priority of the key failure factors so that the research results become more complete.