A predictive Bayesian data-derived multi-modal Gaussian model of sunken oil mass

Hydrodynamic modeling of sunken oil is hindered by insufficient knowledge of bottom currents. In this paper, the development of a predictive Bayesian model, SOSim, for inferring the location of sunken oil in time, based on sparse, qualitative or quantitative near-real time field data collected immediately following a spill, is described. Mapped output represents unconditional multi-modal Gaussian relative probabilities of finding oil at points across a relatively flat bay bottom, in time. The method of images is extended to address curvilinear reflecting shorelines. The model is demonstrated to locate the entire DBL-152 spill, given field data covering part of the area affected, and to project oil movement near curvilinear shoreline boundaries given simulated field data at two points in time. Limitations include accountability for discontinuous boundary conditions. Further development is recommended, including development of capability for accepting bathymetric data, for modeling continuous oil releases, and for 3-D modeling of suspended oil.     

An integrated flood management system based on linking environmental models and disaster-related data

The flood disaster management system (FDMS) is a platform developed to provide ongoing disaster reduction capabilities that cover the entire process of flood management. The ontology-based approach links environmental models with disaster-related data to support FDMS-constructed workflows with suitable models and recommend appropriate datasets as model input automatically. This automated activity for model selection and data binding reduces the time-consuming and unreliable operations involved in traditional management techniques, which rely on manual retrieval through simple metadata indices—typically when flood management personnel are overwhelmed with large quantities of observed data. The OpenMI-based modular design used in the system unifies interfaces and data exchange to provide flexible and extensible architecture. Subsequent 3D visualization improves the interpretability of disaster data and the effectiveness of decision-making processes. This paper presents an overview of the design and capabilities of FDMS that provides one-stop management for flood disasters.     

Potential of Bayesian networks for adaptive management in water recycling

Water recycling is an important solution to increasing water scarcity. However, universal wastewater treatment standards deter uptake of recycling schemes. Lack of data also impedes fit-for-purpose water recycling and water managers are challenged by decision making under uncertain conditions. Bayesian networks (BNs) are increasingly recognised as a valuable tool for decision making under uncertainty. In this study BNs are used to model health risks associated with wastewater irrigation of a public open space. Three BNs based on quantitative microbial risk assessment model risk reduction potential along a treatment chain and at the site of reuse. The BNs simulate multiple exposure profiles and scenarios, providing conditional probability of infection or illness, comparable with health-based targets. Study findings highlight the significant impact of post treatment risk mitigation, despite challenging conditions. BNs provide a transparent, defensible evidence base for mapping and quantifying risk pathways, comparing decision options and predicting outcomes of management policies.     

Comparing interpolation techniques for monthly rainfall mapping using multiple evaluation criteria and auxiliary data sources: A case study of Sri Lanka

Interpolating climatic variables such as rainfall is challenging due to the highly variable nature of meteorological processes, the effects of terrain and geography, and the difficulty in establishing a representative network of stations. While interpolation models are being adapted to include these effects, often the rainfall data contain significant gaps in coverage. In this paper, we evaluated rainfall data from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. We compared four spatial interpolation techniques: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from the agro-ecological network were found to have accuracies consistent with previous studies in Sri Lanka.     

A framework for coupling explanation and prediction in hydroecological modelling

Causal explanation and empirical prediction are usually addressed separately when modelling ecological systems. This potentially leads to erroneous conflation of model explanatory and predictive power, to predictive models that lack ecological interpretability, or to limited feedback between predictive modelling and theory development. These are fundamental challenges to appropriate statistical and scientific use of ecological models. To help address such challenges, we propose a novel, integrated modelling framework which couples explanatory modelling for causal understanding and input variable selection with a machine learning approach for empirical prediction. Exemplar datasets from the field of freshwater ecology are used to develop and evaluate the framework, based on 267 stream and river monitoring stations across England, UK. These data describe spatial patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate community indices that are hypothesised to be driven by meso-scale physical and chemical habitat conditions. Whilst explanatory models developed using structural equation modelling performed strongly (r² for two macroinvertebrate indices = 0.64–0.70), predictive models based on extremely randomised trees demonstrated moderate performance (r² for the same indices = 0.50–0.61). However, through coupling explanatory and predictive components, our proposed framework yields ecologically-interpretable predictive models which also maintain the parsimony and accuracy of models based on solely predictive approaches. This significantly enhances the opportunity for feedback among causal theory, empirical data and prediction within environmental modelling.     

A comprehensive approach to evaluating watershed models for predicting river flow regimes critical to downstream ecosystem services

Selection of strategies that help reduce riverine inputs requires numerical models that accurately quantify hydrologic processes. While numerous models exist, information on how to evaluate and select the most robust models is limited. Toward this end, we developed a comprehensive approach that helps evaluate watershed models in their ability to simulate flow regimes critical to downstream ecosystem services. We demonstrated the method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model, and Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) applied to the Maumee River Basin (USA). The approach helped in identifying that each model simulated flows within acceptable ranges. However, each was limited in its ability to simulate flows triggered by extreme weather events, owing to algorithms not being optimized for such events and mismatched physiographic watershed conditions. Ultimately, we found HSPF to best predict river flow, whereas SWAT offered the most flexibility for evaluating agricultural management practices.     

Software framework for inverse modeling and uncertainty characterization

Estimation of spatial random fields (SRFs) is required for predicting groundwater flow, subsurface contaminant movement, and other areas of environmental and earth sciences modeling. This paper presents an inverse modeling framework called MAD# for characterizing SRFs, which is an implementation of the Bayesian inverse modeling technique Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD). MAD# allows modelers to “wrap” simulation models using an extensible driver architecture that exposes model parameters to the inversion engine. MAD# is implemented in an open source software package with the goal of lowering the barrier to using inverse modeling in education, research, and resource management. MAD# includes an intentionally simple user interface for simulation configuration, external software integration, spatial domain and model output visualization, and evaluation of model convergence. Four test cases are presented demonstrating the novel functionality of this framework to apply inversion in order to calibrate the model parameters characterizing a groundwater aquifer.     

A real time experimental setup for classification of epilepsy risk levels

The objective of this paper is to analyze the performance of singular value decomposition, expectation maximization, and Elman Neural Networks in optimization of code converter outputs in the classification of epilepsy risk levels from EEG (electroencephalogram) signals. The signal parameters such as the total number of positive and negative peaks, spikes and sharp waves, their duration etc., were extracted using morphological operators and wavelet transforms. Code converters were considered as a level one classifier. Code converters were found to have a performance index and quality value of 33.26 and 12.74, respectively, which is low. Consequently, for the EEG signals of 20 patients, the post classifiers were applied across 3 epochs of 16 channels. After having made a comparative study of different architectures, SVD was found to be the best post classifier as it marked a performance index of 89.48 and a quality value of 20.62. Elman neural network also exhibits good performance metrics than SVD in the morphological operator based feature extraction method.     

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO₂, O₃, SO₂, NH₃, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.     

A data porting tool for coupling models with different discretization needs

The presented work is part of a larger research program dealing with developing tools for coupling biogeochemical models in contaminated landscapes. The specific objective of this article is to provide researchers with a data porting tool to build hexagonal raster using information from a rectangular raster data (e.g. GIS format). This tool involves a computational algorithm and an open source software (written in C). The method of extending the reticulated functions defined on 2D networks is an essential key of this algorithm and can also be used for other purposes than data porting. The algorithm allows one to build the hexagonal raster with a cell size independent from the geometry of the rectangular raster. The extended function is a bi-cubic spline which can exactly reconstruct polynomials up to degree three in each variable. We validate the method by analyzing errors in some theoretical case studies followed by other studies with real terrain elevation data. We also introduce and briefly present an iterative water routing method and use it for validation on a case with concrete terrain data.     

A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services

To support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), and as part of a tiered approach to prioritise detailed modelling, a high-level screening methodology has been developed to assess the vulnerability of water-related ecosystem services (ES) to future change. The approach incorporates a range of spatially distributed scenarios of land use and climate, which are used as inputs to a qualitative risk assessment model underpinned by expert opinion. The method makes use of widely available datasets and provides a structured way of capturing and “codifying” expert knowledge, as well as for assessing the degree of consensus between different expert groups. The range of model output reflects uncertainty in both the expert-derived assumptions and the climate & land use simulations considered. The approach has been developed in collaboration with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and applied in Scotland to support the second cycle of River Basin Management Planning.     

Predicting the helpfulness of online reviews using multilayer perceptron neural networks

With the great development of e-commerce, users can create and publish a wealth of product information through electronic communities. It is difficult, however, for manufacturers to discover the best reviews and to determine the true underlying quality of a product due to the sheer volume of reviews available for a single product. The goal of this paper is to develop models for predicting the helpfulness of reviews, providing a tool that finds the most helpful reviews of a given product. This study intends to propose HPNN (a helpfulness prediction model using a neural network), which uses a back-propagation multilayer perceptron neural network (BPN) model to predict the level of review helpfulness using the determinants of product data, the review characteristics, and the textual characteristics of reviews. The prediction accuracy of HPNN was better than that of a linear regression analysis in terms of the mean-squared error. HPNN can suggest better determinants which have a greater effect on the degree of helpfulness. The results of this study will identify helpful online reviews and will effectively assist in the design of review sites.     

Simulating agricultural land rental markets by combining agent-based models with traditional economics concepts: The case of the Argentine Pampas

Land exchange through rental transactions is a central process in agricultural systems. The land tenure regimes emerge from land transactions and structural and land use changes are tied to the dynamics of the land market. We introduce LARMA, a LAnd Rental MArket model embedded within the Pampas Model (PM), an agent-based model of Argentinean agricultural systems. LARMA produces endogenous formation of land rental prices. LARMA relies on traditional economic concepts for LRP formation but addresses some drawbacks of this approach by being integrated into an agent-based model that considers heterogeneous agents interacting with one another. PM-LARMA successfully reproduced the agricultural land tenure regimes and land rental prices observed in the Pampas. Including adaptive, heterogeneous and interacting agents was critical to this success. We conclude that agent-based and traditional economic models can be successfully combined to capture complex emergent land tenure and market price patterns while simplifying the overall model design.     

Artificial neural networks and physical modeling for determination of baseline consumption of CHP plants

An effective modeling technique is proposed for determining baseline energy consumption in the industry. A CHP plant is considered in the study that was subjected to a retrofit, which consisted of the implementation of some energy-saving measures. This study aims to recreate the post-retrofit energy consumption and production of the system in case it would be operating in its past configuration (before retrofit) i.e., the current consumption and production in the event that no energy-saving measures had been implemented. Two different modeling methodologies are applied to the CHP plant: thermodynamic modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN). Satisfactory results are obtained with both modeling techniques. Acceptable accuracy levels of prediction are detected, confirming good capability of the models for predicting plant behavior and their suitability for baseline energy consumption determining purposes. High level of robustness is observed for ANN against uncertainty affecting measured values of variables used as input in the models. The study demonstrates ANN great potential for assessing baseline consumption in energy-intensive industry. Application of ANN technique would also help to overcome the limited availability of on-shelf thermodynamic software for modeling all specific typologies of existing industrial processes.     

Ergonomic evaluation of an alternative tool for cake decorating

AimCake decorating involves several hand intensive steps with high grip force during the application of icing. The purpose of this laboratory study was to evaluate forearm muscle activity, discomfort, productivity, and usability of an alternative tool for cake decorating compared to decorating with the traditional piping bag.MethodsParticipants (n = 17) performed 2 h of cake decorating tasks using the two tools. Subjective hand and arm fatigue, usability, upper extremity posture, and muscle activity from three forearm muscles were assessed for each tool. Outcome measures were evaluated using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and the paired t-test.ResultsLess fatigue was reported in the dominant hand (p = 0.001), forearm (p = 0.003) and shoulder (p = 0.02) for the alternative tool when compared to the piping bag. Average median (APDF 50%) and peak (APDF 90%) muscle activity was significantly less for the alternative tool across all three forearm muscles. The alternative tool significantly reduced grip force, an important risk factor for distal upper extremity pain and disorders. Participants rated usability of the alternative tool superior for refill and comfort but the traditional method was rated better for accuracy, stability, positioning and control.ConclusionsThe alternative tool was associated with less dominant arm fatigue, muscle activity, and grip force when compared with the piping bag. However, the alternative tool did not receive the best overall usability rating due to problems with accuracy and overflow, especially with smaller decorating tips. Recommendations were made for addressing these problems with the alternative tool.     

Wastewater treatment modelling with smoothed particle hydrodynamics

In this paper a novel hydrodynamic wastewater treatment (WWT) model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is presented. The hydraulics of the wastewater treatment plant is modelled in detail with SPH. The SPH solver is coupled to the activated sludge model such that the influence on biokinetic processes is described. The key innovation of the present WWT model is that both the biokinetics and the wastewater hydraulics are simultaneously solved for non-steady flows. After validating the present method against the software ASIM 5, the capabilities are demonstrated for a full-scale treatment plant simulation. We investigate the stirrer and aeration induced mixing within the reactor compartments as well as the resulting concentrations of the biokinetic compounds. Following the establishment of a local coupling between the hydraulics and the biokinetics, the biokinetic concentrations within a treatment plant can be spatially resolved with a high resolution.     

Reducing wildfire risk to urban developments: Simulation of cost-effective fuel treatment solutions in south eastern Australia

Wildfires can result in significant economic and social losses. Prescribed fire is commonly applied to reduce fuel loads and thereby decrease future fire risk to life and property. Fuel treatments can occur in the landscape or adjacent to houses. Location of the prescribed burns can significantly alter the risk of house loss. Furthermore the cost of treating fuels in the landscape is far cheaper than treating fuels adjacent to the houses. Here we develop a Bayesian Network to examine the relative reduction in risk that can be achieved by prescribed burning in the landscape compared with a 500 m interface zone adjacent to houses. We then compare costs of management treatments to determine the most cost-effective method of reducing risk to houses. Burning in the interface zone resulted in the greatest reduction in risk of fires reaching the houses and the intensity of these fires. Fuel treatment in the interface zone allows for a direct transfer of benefits from the fuel treatment. Costs of treating fuels in the interface were significantly higher on a per hectare basis, but the extent of area requiring treatment was considerably lower. Results of this study demonstrate that treatment of fuels at the interface is not only the best means of reducing risk, it is also the most cost-effective.     

Posture and lifting exposures for daycare workers

Daycare employees, specifically caregivers, are a distinct population that may experience increased risk of injury due to the high exposure to bent postures, lifting conditions and high stress associated with their work. The objectives of the study were to collect up to date data on daycare workers and to compare the data between groups working with children of different ages (Infant, Toddler and Preschool). The study consisted of two distinct phases: Phase 1 – Questionnaire distribution, Phase 2 – Observation and analysis involving three dimensional postural monitoring and video recording as well as an analysis of the low back forces and moments in lifting. Phase 1: Consisted of the distribution of questionnaires to all employees in each of the participating daycares (n = 73). Of the 73 questionnaires distributed 32 responses were obtained (44%). Of the 32 employees who completed the questionnaires, 19 caregivers volunteered to participate in Phase 2 of the study. An additional 5 caregivers participated in phase 2 of the study, but did not complete any questionnaires. The questionnaires indicated 81% of the workers have experienced low back pain. Phase 2: Observational data were collected on site in five local daycares, throughout the first half of each subject's shift (∼3.5 h). Caregivers from each of the three classroom age groups were recruited for participation in the direct observation (Infant: n = 7, Toddler: n = 7, Preschool: n = 8). Posture analysis revealed that on average, workers adopted trunk flexion angles greater than 55°, for 10% of the collection time, and greater than 70°, for 5% of the collection time. These postures correspond to both moderate and severe flexed postures respectively. The lifting analysis (completed using the data recorded in phase 2) revealed that workers lifted with frequencies of 0.25 lifts/minute, lifted a total weight of 501 kg (over 3.3 h) and experienced average compression and shear forces of 3323 N and 371 N, respectively. A between-group comparison showed that when compared to the Preschool group, the Infant (p = 0.008) and Toddler (p = 0.001) groups demonstrated higher relative flexed postures and lifting frequencies, and the Toddler group (p = 0.023) demonstrated higher total weight lifted. Results suggested that these employees experience an elevated risk of low back injury caused by their occupational tasks and thus, further research is required to determine appropriate worker accommodations and safe work practices to help mediate these risks for all daycare caregivers.Relevance to industryIt is thought that the results from this study could lead to the development of safe working and job sharing guidelines for daycare workers.