Global Sensitivity Analysis of environmental models: Convergence and validation

We address two critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA): the choice of the sample size and of the threshold for the identification of insensitive input factors. Guidance to assist users with those two choices is still insufficient. We aim at filling this gap. Firstly, we define criteria to quantify the convergence of sensitivity indices, of ranking and of screening, based on a bootstrap approach. Secondly, we investigate the screening threshold with a quantitative validation procedure for screening results. We apply the proposed methodologies to three hydrological models with varying complexity utilizing three widely-used GSA methods (RSA, Morris, Sobol’). We demonstrate that convergence of screening and ranking can be reached before sensitivity estimates stabilize. Convergence dynamics appear to be case-dependent, which suggests that “fit-for-all” rules for sample sizes should not be used. Other modellers can easily adopt our criteria and procedures for a wide range of GSA methods and cases.     

An investigation of transonic flow over axisymmetric rigid body

The aim of this study is to investigate transonic flow over the axisymmetric rigid body of revolutions using matched asymptotic expansions of high Reynolds number flow. For this purpose the triple-deck model is employed. It allows to study the flow separation near a junction line where a circular cylinder is connected to a divergent conical body. It is found that in the axisymmetric transonic flow the interaction region is governed by the viscous-inviscid interaction process, where the axisymmetric Karman-Guderley equation in the inviscid part of the flow should be coupled with Prandtl’s boundary layer equations for the viscous sublayer. The coupled governing equations of the interaction region is solved using a semi-direct numerical method considering proper boundary conditions. Numerical results imply that incipience of separation may appear over the axisymmetric rigid body subject to body shape and transonic axisymmetric nature makes the flow much less prone to separation as compared to the two-dimensional flow.     

Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model

Predicting the probability of wind damage in both natural and managed forests is important for understanding forest ecosystem functioning, the environmental impact of storms and for forest risk management. We undertook a thorough validation of three versions of the hybrid-mechanistic wind risk model, ForestGALES, and a statistical logistic regression model, against observed damage in a Scottish upland conifer forest following a major storm. Statistical analysis demonstrated that increasing tree height and local wind speed during the storm were the main factors associated with increased damage levels. All models provided acceptable discrimination between damaged and undamaged forest stands but there were trade-offs between the accuracy of the mechanistic models and model bias. The two versions of the mechanistic model with the lowest bias gave very comparable overall results at the forest scale and could form part of a decision support system for managing forest wind damage risk.     

反压气流温度及传热对隔离段激波串的影响

隔离段出口反压,气流温度和传热都影响激波串的位置,长度和隔离段的性能.采用实验方法和数值方法对均匀来流情况下具有不同隔离段长度的超燃冲压发动机燃烧室内流动进行了研究.分析了隔离段的下游反压前传模式和反压对隔离段激波串的影响;用数值方法研究了温度和传热对激波串及隔离段性能的影响.结果表明:隔离段越长,激波承受能力越强,极限反压越大;对超音速气流加入热量能够增加附面层厚度,减小气流马赫数.降低隔离段的抗反压能力;高温气流产生的激波串长度相对较长,因此需要更长的隔离段来防止发动机不启动.     

Fuzzy boundary layer tuning for sliding mode systems as applied to the control of a direct drive robot

Chattering in the control signal is a significant problem in sliding mode control (SMC). The boundary layer approach is one of the many modifications proposed in the literature to avoid the chattering. In this approach, instead of the discontinuous SMC, a continuous feedback control law is employed in a boundary layer around the sliding surface. The thickness of the boundary layer is an important design parameter. This paper proposes a fuzzy online tuning method to adjust the boundary layer thickness for the best system performance without chattering. The method features the measurement of the chattering in the control signal. The paper validates the performance of the algorithm by experiments on a direct drive robot with a range of different payloads.     

超声速进气道流场的CFD数值仿真

进气道是航空推进系统的一个重要组成部分,进气道内的流场品质会显著影响发动机的性能.由于进气道内部流动的复杂性和其广泛的应用前景,进气道内的流动特性引起了人们广泛的关注.采用计算流体力学(CFD)方法,空间离散采用Harten-Yee的二阶迎风TVD格式,时间迭代采用隐式LU-SGS方法,数值求解Navier-Stokes(N-S)方程,对进气道内部流场进行了数值模拟,并研究了进气道内部流场的流场结构以及激波/边界层干扰问题.数值计算结果反映出了流场的基本物理现象,说明了所采用的研究方法是可行的.同时数值模拟结果对进气道的设计有一定的参考价值.     

磁悬挂天平离散滑模变结构控制器的研究

磁悬挂天平作为一种新型风洞天平，在航空航天领域逐渐引起关注。针对磁悬挂天平常规的控制器很难克制吹风过程中强低频干扰的实际，运用滑模变结构控制理论设计了其控制器。悬挂实验表明，变结构控制器与常规的HD控制器相比，其快速性大为提高，并且具有较好的鲁棒性和适应能力，从而为进一步研究磁悬挂天平的数字控制打下基础。     

Wind profile within the forest canopy and in the transition layer above it

The forest as an underlying surface has to be considered in atmospheric models of different scales. Experimental evidence shows that there can be a significant variation of the wind profile within the forest and in the so-called transition layer above it. Experimentally observed wind speed is often found below as indicated by the wind speed profile obtained by: (a) the logarithmic relationship in the transition layer and (b) K theory within the forest. This situation can seriously disturb the real physical picture concerning the transfer of momentum, heat and water vapour from the surface into the atmosphere.In order to minimise the foregoing problems, we have suggested an empirical expression for the wind profile in the transition layer above the forest as well as the expressions for the wind profile and turbulent momentum transfer coefficient within the forest canopy layer. Additionally, for the proposed wind profiles, the expressions for the displacement height, roughness length and parameters are determined as functions of the forest structural characteristics using continuity conditions and a simple mass conservation hypothesis. The validity of the proposed expressions was checked using the micrometeorological measurements from the experimental sites in the Thetford Scots pine forest in Norfolk, United Kingdom and in the Ponderosa pine forest at the Shasta Experimental Forest, California, USA.     

基于边界层理论的固液两相流离心泵CAD

建立固液两相流离心泵边界层理论模型,分析叶片近壁表面流动状态,解决困扰两相流离心泵的两大问题:能耗大,寿命低.基于边界层理论,开发出了自上而下的固液两相流离心泵CAD系统,改变了传统设计方法.     

An LTR-observer-based dynamic sliding mode control for chattering reduction

Two important approaches to alleviation of control chattering in sliding mode control are the boundary layer control (BLC) and the dynamic sliding mode control (DSMC). The DSMC is superior to the BLC since in DSMC chattering is alleviated without sacrificing the control accuracy. However, the design of DSMC is more challenging because its sliding variable contains an unknown system uncertainty. This paper proposes a robust two-dimensional LTR observer for estimation of the state-dependent uncertainty in the sliding variable. This paper also shows, via simulation examples, that the DSMC can better reduce chattering than the BLC especially in noisy environments.     

Development and validation of a computer expertise questionnaire for older adults

Prior computer expertise represents one of the most important predictors of performance when interacting with ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) and acquiring computer skills. Due to demographic changes, the older adult will become increasingly important as a potential user. However, there is a lack of instruments for the assessment of computer expertise in older adults, especially for novice users with restricted prior computer knowledge. A computer expertise (CE) questionnaire for older adults was developed, analysed (Study I) and validated (Study II). Item-analysis showed that the CE-questionnaire is particularly appropriate for the computer knowledge level of older adults and measures computer expertise sufficiently. Furthermore, it was found that computer experience (in terms of frequency of computer usage) is a poor predictor of actual computer performance, which has important implications for the theoretical conceptualization of computer expertise and its assessment.     

Development and validation of a computer expertise questionnaire for older adults

Prior computer expertise represents one of the most important predictors of performance when interacting with ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) and acquiring computer skills. Due to demographic changes, the older adult will become increasingly important as a potential user. However, there is a lack of instruments for the assessment of computer expertise in older adults, especially for novice users with restricted prior computer knowledge. A computer expertise (CE) questionnaire for older adults was developed, analysed (Study I) and validated (Study II). Item-analysis showed that the CE-questionnaire is particularly appropriate for the computer knowledge level of older adults and measures computer expertise sufficiently. Furthermore, it was found that computer experience (in terms of frequency of computer usage) is a poor predictor of actual computer performance, which has important implications for the theoretical conceptualization of computer expertise and its assessment.     

Slip effects on MHD mixed convection stagnation point flow of a micropolar fluid towards a shrinking vertical sheet

In the present study, the effects of partial slip on steady boundary layer stagnation point flow of an electrically conducting micropolar fluid impinging normally towards a shrinking sheet in the presence of a uniform transverse magnetic field is investigated. A similarity transformation technique is adopted to obtain the self similar ordinary differential equations and then solved numerically using symbolic software MATHEMATICA 7.0. The features of the flow and heat transfer characteristics for different values of the governing parameters are analyzed and discussed through graphs and tables. Both cases of assisting and opposing flows are considered. The physical aspects of the problem are highlighted and discussed.     

A semi-discrete tailored finite point method for a class of anisotropic diffusion problems

This work proposes a tailored finite point method (TFPM) for the numerical solution of an anisotropic diffusion problem, which has much smaller diffusion coefficient along one direction than the other on a rectangular domain. The paper includes analysis on the differentiability of the solution to the given problem under some compatibility conditions. It has detailed derivation for a semi-discrete TFPM for the given problem. This work also proves a uniform error estimate on the approximate solution. Numerical results show that the TFPM is accurate as well as efficient for the strongly anisotropic diffusion problem. Examples include those that do not satisfy compatibility and regularity conditions. For the incompatible problems, numerical experiments indicate that the method proposed can still offer good numerical approximations.     

基于B-P神经网络的环境空气质量预测模型

B-P神经网络是一种刻画非线性现象的强有力工具,可以将它应用到环境空气质量预测中。B-P神经网络针对不同的监测项目,根据不同的气象特征因子,将污染源排放数据为输入因子,监测点位监测数据作为输出因子,形成多组训练样本,进行学习训练,建立起不同的预测网络。然后用空气污染源排放监测数据输入相同气象条件的、已调整好权值的B-P神经网络系统,即可输出该项污染物的监测点位预测监测值。实验证明B-P神经网络预测模型取得了较好的结果,比现有预测模型具有更大的优势。     

ACOA-RBF网络模型在短期负荷预测中的应用

为了进一步提高RBF神经网络的性能,实现准确、快速预测短期电力负荷的目的,将蚁群优化算法（ACOA）作为RBF神经网络的学习算法,建立了一种新的蚁群优化算法的RBF（ACOA-RBF）网络预测模型,利用山西某地区电网的历史数据进行短期负荷预测。仿真表明,这一算法与传统的RBF神经网络预测方法相比,能达到更好的预测效果。该优化算法改善了径向基神经网络的泛化能力,提高了山西电网短期负荷预测的精度,可有效用于电力系统的短期负荷预测。