Predicting Profit Performance for Selecting Candidate International Construction Projects

International projects are inherently exposed to unpredictable and complicated risk scenarios. To minimize possible losses due to these risk exposures, construction firms have their own procedures or basic tools for selecting potential projects, but they are usually based on the experience and knowledge of the firm’s engineers and decision makers that are often very subjective and lack scientific basis. This paper presents a quantitative profit prediction model for the early stage of an international project as a systematic risk-screening tool that involves the processes of defining, analyzing, and evaluating various profit-influencing risk variables. Various successful and unsuccessful international project cases with respect to profit levels are collected. Then, a scale-based profit prediction model to select candidate overseas projects is developed through factor analysis and a multiple regression analysis. Finally, this paper provides implications for global project management and lessons learned from case studies to improve profitability for international projects.     

Discriminant Analysis for Predicting Ranges of Cost Variance in International Construction Projects

Unanticipated market conditions as well as project-related risks can easily lead to cost overruns in international construction projects. For a contractor to be financially successful in international projects, a careful examination of the project is a prerequisite to understanding the cost variance characteristics. Based on the reasonably accurate characterization of the cost performance, the markup or contingency amount is determined to ensure both a decent level of profit and a good chance of winning the contract. This paper presents a classification model to categorize international construction projects, particularly faced by Korean contractors, into five cost-variation classes: extreme cost overrun, moderate cost overrun, neutral, moderate cost saving, and extreme cost saving. The model is able to characterize an international project for its cost performance prediction in comparison to the contractor’s initial cost estimate. A linear discriminant analysis is utilized to develop the predictive classification model with the support of the bootstrap method. Tests show that the proposed model is able to help cost estimators determine a proper level of cost contingency before bidding on an international project.     

Contractor’s Risk Attitudes in the Selection of International Construction Projects

International construction involves all of the uncertainties common to domestic construction projects as well as risks specific to international transactions. Consequently, despite the worldwide trend toward globalization, a very small portion of contractors actively seek international contracts due to concerns of probable failures. This paper describes findings from experiments done to investigate the risk attitude and bid decision behavior in the selection of international projects. The participants demonstrated either weak risk seeking in profit situations or strong risk seeking toward loss situations when choosing between conflicting options of risky opportunities and sure payoffs. On the other hand, another experimental test attempting to investigate bid behavior when making a realistic bid or no-bid decision in a complicated international construction project reveals the prevailing risk aversion. Further, this paper finds the experimental supports for some of the errors and biases due to risk attitude that commonly exist in bid decisions in this area. Finally, we present lessons learned and guidelines to make a qualified bid decision through feedback with the participants.     

Profit Measures for Construction Projects

The basic issues related to profit measures of a construction project for the contractor are presented. Specifically, the problem of measuring gross operating profit and financing costs under fluctuating economic environments which has been heretofore inadequately treated in the literature of construction management is addressed. A framework for analyzing financing costs under different financial mechanisms, including the effects of overdraft and other borrowing arrangements, is presented. The general procedure is also applicable to the analysis of the effects of inflation and of work stoppages on profit. Finally, the cost of a project to the owner and the relationship between uncertainty and contract price from the views of both the owner and the contractor are considered.     

Factors Affecting International Construction

A construction company’s decision to expand into international markets must be based on a good understanding of the opportunities and threats associated with international business, as well as the development of company strengths relative to international activities. These factors were evaluated in this study by surveying the executives in charge of international construction of large United States based contractors. The information was collected by means of two rounds of a Delphi survey, the results of which were used as input in an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The findings indicate that track record, specialist expertise, project management capability are the most important company strengths; loss of key personnel, shortage of financial resources, and inflation and currency fluctuations are the most important threats relative to international markets; and increased long term profitability, the ability to maintain shareholders’ returns, and the globalization and openness of the markets are the most important opportunities available in international works. This study is of relevance to practitioners as it systematically highlights the factors that affect international construction for the benefit of executives of medium-to-large size construction companies who are considering expanding into overseas markets. It is of relevance to researchers too as it demonstrates the successful use of the combined Delphi and AHP.     

Evaluation of Risk Factors Leading to Cost Overrun in Delivery of Highway Construction Projects

Accurate owner budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for highway construction projects. However, transportation projects have historically experienced significant construction cost overruns from the time the decision to build has been taken by the owner. This paper addresses the problem of why highway projects overrun their predicted costs. It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographic location, and project delivery method. The research results indicate a correlation between the reciprocal of project budget size and percentage cost overrun. This can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build highway budget estimates by taking into account the economies of scale associated with larger projects.     

Fast and Accurate Risk Evaluation for Scheduling Large-Scale Construction Projects

This paper presents the development of a novel probabilistic scheduling model that enables fast and accurate risk evaluation for large-scale construction projects. The model is designed to overcome the limitations of existing probabilistic scheduling methods, including the inaccuracy of the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) and the long computational time of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The model consists of three main modules: PERT model; fast and accurate multivariate normal integral method; and a newly developed approximation method. The new approximation method is designed to focus the risk analysis on the most significant paths in the project network by identifying and removing insignificant paths that are either highly correlated or have high probability of completion time. The performance of the new model is analyzed using an application example. The results of this analysis illustrate that the new model was able to reduce the computational time for a large-scale construction project by more than 94% while keeping the error of its probability estimates to less than 3%, compared with Monte Carlo Simulation methods.     

Reliability Buffering for Construction Projects

Buffering is a common practice in project planning. Project managers or schedulers have used a time contingency to guarantee the completion time of either an activity or a project. This traditional buffering, however, often fails to protect the project schedule performance, resulting in an unnecessary resource idle time. To deal with this problem, reliability buffering, a simulation-based buffering strategy, is presented. Reliability buffering aims to generate a robust construction plan that protects against uncertainties by reducing the potential impact of construction changes. The effectiveness of reliability buffering is examined by simulating a dynamic project model that integrates the simulation approach with the network scheduling approach. The research results indicate that reliability buffering can help achieve a shorter project duration without driving up costs by pooling, resizing, relocating, and recharacterizing contingency buffers. A case study of bridge construction projects also demonstrates how construction projects can benefit from reliability buffering in real world settings. Although further validation is needed, reliability buffering can potentially impact the planning and control of construction projects by improving the consideration of construction feedbacks and characteristics in buffering, and serving as an input to a dynamic project model.     

Downside Risks in Construction Projects Developed by the Civil Service: The Case of Spain

The purpose of the work summarized here was to improve the efficiency of the construction project management processes performed by the Spanish civil service, identifying and analyzing the main risks in these kinds of projects, and also establishing potential risk responses. The scope of this effort included a list of 96 risk events, categorized and prioritized first by impact, then by frequency. The most relevant ones are related to issues such as an inadequate prequalification system, insufficient training of public servants, or political considerations prevailing over real needs, among others. A total of 117 potential risk responses were identified, categorized, and prioritized by potential efficiency and difficulty of implementation. Each risk event was associated to a set of potential responses. The paper includes the top 15 risk events with its main potential responses, including qualitative assessments. A survey was carried out among Spanish public servants working in construction projects, to validate risk identification and to obtain a qualitative assessment. Moreover, a Delphi analysis was developed to validate the risk response identification and obtain a qualitative assessment. One of the conclusions is that small and medium-sized Spanish civil service agencies should work toward increasing their maturity in managing projects and, mainly, project risks.     

Causes, Effects, Benefits, and Remedies of Change Orders on Public Construction Projects in Oman

Change orders are usually issued to cover variations in scope of work, material quantities, design errors, and unit rate changes. This paper discusses variations in public construction projects in Oman by investigating causes of variations, studying their effects on the project, identifying the beneficial parties, and suggesting remedies to alleviate related problems. Tasks included an analysis of four actual case studies and conducting a field survey via a questionnaire. It was determined that the client’s additional works and modifications to design were the most important factors causing change orders, followed by the nonavailability of construction manuals and procedures. The most important effects of change orders on the project were found to be the schedule delays, disputes, and cost overruns. The contractor was found to be the party most benefiting from the change orders followed by the consultant and then the client. A set of remedial actions were suggested and respondents viewed that the revision of registration of consulting offices would be the most important action followed by establishing standard documents for design procedures and building a national database about soil conditions and services.     

Selection Model for Delivery Methods for Multifamily-Housing Construction Projects

Selecting an appropriate delivery method that will achieve a project’s objectives and characteristics is one of the most critical factors for the project’s success. A selection model for this study was developed by using actual construction case data in quantitative data analysis methods such as logistic regression, factor analysis, and correlation analysis. The model was developed on the basis of the design-build and design-bid-build methods from various project delivery methods. To validate the developed model, comparative tests were conducted on the selection of the delivery method for multifamily-housing construction projects, which showed that the model resulted in 95.0% accuracy. It is expected that the developed selection model will enable owners to select delivery methods that accurately meet their needs characteristics, project characteristics, and external environments.     

Causes of Delay in Building Construction Projects in Egypt

Delay in construction projects is considered one of the most common problems causing a multitude of negative effects on the project and its participating parties. This paper aims to identify the main causes of delay in construction projects in Egypt from the point of view of contractors, consultants, and owners. A literature review was conducted to compile a list of delay causes that was purged based on appropriateness to Egypt in seven semistructured interviews. The resulting list of delay causes was subjected to a questionnaire survey for quantitative confirmation and identification of the most important causes of delay. The overall results indicated that the most important causes are: financing by contractor during construction, delays in contractor’s payment by owner, design changes by owner or his agent during construction, partial payments during construction, and nonutilization of professional construction/contractual management. The contractor and owner were found to have opposing views, mostly blaming one another for delays, while the consultant was seen as having a more intermediate view. Results’ analyses suggest that in order to significantly reduce delay a joint effort based on teamwork is required. Furthermore, causes of project delay were discussed based on the type and size of the project.     

Disputes and Dispute Resolution Systems in Sino-Foreign Joint Venture Construction Projects in China

There has been a sharp increase in the number of Sino-Foreign Joint Venture (SFJV) construction projects in the People’s Republic of China since the 1990s. Despite the Chinese Government’s new measures for boosting foreign involvements, entering into the construction market remains problematic for many foreign contractors. One of the problems concerns construction disputes. In light of this, this paper reports a study on disputes and dispute resolution systems in SFJVs. A questionnaire survey of 41 practitioners in the field was carried out. The main purpose was to identify the most common sources of disputes and the most commonly used dispute resolution methods in SFJVs. Results show that the sources of construction disputes can be classified into three categories: contractual, cultural, and legal matters. The most commonly used dispute resolution methods are mediation and arbitration. These findings will give both Chinese and foreign contractors invaluable insights into disputes and dispute resolution systems in SFJV projects.     

Non-Unit-Based Planning and Scheduling of Repetitive Construction Projects

Repetitive scheduling methods are more effective than traditional critical path methods in the planning and scheduling of repetitive construction projects. Nevertheless, almost all the repetitive scheduling methods developed so far have been based on the premise that a repetitive project is comprised of many identical production units. In this research a non-unit-based algorithm for the planning and scheduling of repetitive projects is developed. Instead of repetitive production units, repetitive or similar activity groups are identified and employed for scheduling. The algorithm takes into consideration: (1) the logical relationship of activity groups in a repetitive project; (2) the usage of various resource crews in an activity group; (3) the maintaining of resource continuity; and (4) the time and cost for the routing of resource crews. A sample case study and a case study of a sewer system project are conducted to validate the algorithm, as well as to demonstrate its application. Results and findings are reported.     

Risk/Reward Compensation Model for Civil Engineering Infrastructure Alliance Projects

A risk/reward model is described as that which aligns project participants’ behaviors toward the achievement of a project’s performance objectives through the use of incentives. A risk/reward model typically includes the following mechanisms: risk/reward shared percentages among nonowner participants, project cost risk/reward, noncost risk/reward, risk cap, and achievability of performance targets. This paper examines the influence of a risk/reward model on the behavior of project participants. Twenty-nine industry practitioners from eight civil infrastructure project alliances were interviewed. The interviews revealed that individual features of a risk/reward model identified had merits, but the achievability of performance targets model appeared to be the most appropriate for promoting positive behaviors within the project team. Additionally, it was found that all incentive aspects of the model examined led to positive and constructive behaviors occurring due to their perceived fairness and equity of payment structure. Participants indicated that having a commercial interest in an alliance’s performance outcomes ensured collaboration and engagement throughout the project’s life cycle. It is concluded that risk/reward sharing is pivotal to obtaining a successful project outcome for the procurement of civil engineering infrastructure projects when using an alliance.     

Critical Review of Collaborative Working in Construction Projects: Business Environment and Human Behaviors

The changing business environment characterized by tense competitiveness and wide global links requires construction organizations to establish effective and efficient interorganization collaborative management systems. Collaborative working (CW), as a new term and especially as a working model, is emerging for improving performance and enhancing competitiveness by responding to the changing environment in construction. This research presents the definition of CW underpinned by the principle of collaboration. Through a thorough literature review of selected papers from the well-known academic journals in construction management, the business environment and human behavior are identified as two key areas which impact the performance of CW in construction projects. Critical reviews on these areas are presented by focusing on different subcategories in each area to investigate the state of the art and trends of CW in construction projects. Some limits of research and practice on CW in construction projects are discussed and future research directions are recommended.     

Reducing Variability to Improve Performance as a Lean Construction Principle

Variability is common on construction projects and must be managed effectively. New management thinking, like that of lean production, has suggested that better labor and cost performance can be achieved by reducing output variability. Efforts to utilize lean thinking in construction, so far, have generated limited evidence to support this claim. This paper investigates the relationship between variability and project performance to test the notion that reducing output variability will result in improved labor performance. Using productivity data from concrete formwork activities on multiple projects, various measures of output variability are tested against construction performance. It is shown that variability in output is inevitable and that there is little correlation between output variability and project performance, but that variability in labor productivity is closely correlated to project performance. It is concluded that lean improvement initiatives should be redirected to adaptable workforce management capabilities to reduce variability in labor productivity instead of output in order to improve project performance.