The efficiency-renewable synergism

Improving energy efficiency is the most effective and least expensive way to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in most industrialized nations— including the UK. A report from the UKAEA's own Energy Technology Support Unit concludes that energy efficiency can displace nearly four times more CO₂ than nuclear power can - more quickly and more cost-effectively. Each pound invested in efficient lighting can displace four to five times as much CO₂ as a pound invested in new nuclear power. Meanwhile, given recent dramatic progress in renewable energy technologies, the most promising long-term CO₂-abatement strategy may be a synergistic combination of energy efficiency and renewable energy.     

Carbon dioxide emissions in OECD service sectors: the critical role of electricity use

From the early 1970s to mid 1990s, service sector CO₂ emissions have increased significantly in OECD countries, despite marked declines in energy intensity. This development is underscored by a widespread shift from fuel use to electricity use in commercial buildings. Service sectors in countries that produce low-carbon electricity, particularly those that operate nuclear- and hydro-powered utilities, have most successfully restrained CO₂ emissions. This study analyzes the impact of activity, structure, energy intensity, fuel mix, and utility mix on carbon emissions in the service sector for 13 OECD countries, and contrasts the developments before 1990 with those afterwards. The major findings of this analysis are:

(i) Carbon emissions, which rose in 9 of the 13 countries investigated, were bolstered in every country by an expansion of floor area and service sector GDP,

(ii) Declines in energy intensity and carbon intensity lessened the magnitude of emissions increases,

(iii) Electricity's share of final energy use rose in all 13 countries, but affected carbon emissions quite differently among countries,

(iv) After 1990, energy intensity improvements applied less downward pressure on emissions, while reductions in the average carbon content of final energy restrained emissions more strongly.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions

We estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi-lateral trade between the UK and China in 2004. Developing and applying the method of Shui and Harriss [2006. The role of CO₂ embodiment in US–China trade. Energy Policy 34, 4063–4068], the most recently available data on trade and CO₂ emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the CO₂ emissions embodied in the commodities traded between China and the UK. It was found that through trade with China, the UK reduced its CO₂ emissions by approximately 11% in 2004, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. In addition, due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China–UK trade resulted in an additional 117 Mt of CO₂ to global CO₂ emissions in the same one year period, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. This represents an additional 19% to the reported national CO₂ emissions of the UK (555 Mt/y in 2004) and 0.4% of global emissions. These findings suggest that, through international trade, very significant environmental impacts can be shifted from one country to another, and that international trade can (but does not necessarily) result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions. These results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods, which are not robustly quantified here.     

An energy development strategy for the USSR Minimizing greenhouse gas emissions

The second largest national consumer of commercial energy in the world, the USSR also emits large quantities of energy-related CO₂. This study uses four long-term scenarios of energy use and related emissions to investigate opportunities for reducing the USSR's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. This paper shows that if no measures are taken to control these emissions, CO₂ and methane will increase by 1.5 to 2 times the 1990 level by the year 2020. However, this growth can be restrained dramatically through structural changes in the Soviet economy, improved energy efficiency and interfuel substitutions. Abating emissions of carbon in the USSR would entail the widespread implementation of energy policies and, for more substantial reductions, higher investments from the Soviet economy. Achieving these goals would also require broad support from the international community.     

A comparison of CO2 emissions from fossil and solar power plants in the United States

We present estimates of the lifetime carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired, photovoltaic, and solar thermal power plants in the United States. These CO₂ estimates are based on a net energy analysis derived from both operational systems and detailed design studies. It appears that energy-conservation measures and shifting from fossil to renewable energy sources have significant long-term potential to reduce CO₂ production caused by energy generation. The implications of these results for a national energy policy are discussed.     

CO2 savings in Brazil The importance of a small contribution

Brazil's development process could lead potentially to a doubling of CO₂ emissions per capita over the next four decades. This paper shows that the implementation of policy measures promoting energy efficiency and fuel switching could reduce Brazil's energy-related CO₂ per capita by 11% by 2025 with respect to their 1985 level without necessitating any significant change in lifestyles. While Brazil's total reductions would be equivalent to only 1% of present global carbon emissions, capturing these savings opportunities would both allow Brazil to participate in global efforts to curtail the generation of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and support Brazil's own economic development process.     

The Carbon-tax debate

This paper discusses recent topics related indirectly to energy production and marketing and related highly to energy policy and economy. These topics are: (1) background to carbon taxes including environmental issues — global warming and CO₂ emissions, fuel substitution and the encouragement of non-hydrocarbon fuel use; (2) climate-change convention and related conferences including those at Rio de Janeiro — objectives and achievements, and Kyoto-objectives; (3) carbon-tax proposals, including implications for oil, coal and gas: (4) The OECD view including evolution of general taxes on hydrocarbons, the carbon tax as a government revenue-raising objective, CO₂ emissions in the OECD; (5) the oil-producer's view including discrimination against oil, the impact on the incentives to use oil and gas; (6) the developing countries' view, including the need to increase fuel use for industrialisation, financial constraints on energy use, and CO₂ emissions in the developing countries.     

CO2 utilization options, part II: Assessment of dimethyl carbonate production

In this paper, the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions from dimethyl carbonate production by switching from the traditional phosgene-based production to a urea-based CO₂ utilization process is assessed. The total CO₂ emission for each process is estimated, including emissions related to the carbon content of the products, energy consumption in the production process, and energy consumption in the production processes of the required reactants. Implementation of the CO₂ utilization process probably will reduce total CO₂ emissions. However, in order to achieve substantially reduced CO₂ emissions, serious consideration must be given to the optimization and design of the CO₂ utilization process. Furthermore, the fuel-mix employed is one of the factors that influences the total CO₂ emission the most.     

China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

Understanding high-emitting households in the UK through a cluster analysis

Anthropogenic climate change is a global problem that affects every country and each individual. It is largely caused by human beings emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In general, a small percentage of the population is responsible for a large amount of emissions. This paper focuses on high emitters and their CO₂ emissions from energy use in UK homes. It applies a cluster approach, aiming to identify whether the high emitters comprise clusters where households in each cluster share similar characteristics but are different from the others. The data are mainly based on the Living Cost and Food survey in the UK. The results show that after equivalising both household emissions and income, the high emitters can be clustered into six groups which share similar characteristics within each group, but are different from the others in terms of income, age, household composition, category and size of the dwelling, and tenure type. The clustering results indicate that various combinations of socioeconomic factors, such as low-income single female living in an at least six-room property, or high-income retired couple owning a large detached house, could all lead to high CO₂ emissions from energy use at home. Policymakers should target each high-emitter cluster differently to reduce CO₂ emissions from energy consumption at home more effectively.     

Optimal climate protection strategies for space heating: The case of Austria

The debate over the costs of climate protection policies still focuses on the question of whether strategies to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at zero or negative net cost (‘no regrets’ strategies) can be found. This article describes a carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction strategy for space and water heating in Austria relying on net present value analyses of 43 climate protection measures. The cost-benefit analyses include investment costs, the savings from energy conservation, the administrative costs of policy instruments and estimates of the external costs. An efficient CO₂ reduction strategy was developed on the basis of energy supply curves which were adapted so that interactions between the CO₂ reduction technologies could be considered. A cost-efficient CO₂ reduction strategy could lower the CO₂ emissions for the provision of space and water heating in Austria by up to 2.7% per year relative to the official ‘business as usual’ scenario.     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

Conceptual study of distributed CO2 capture and the sustainable carbon economy

Capture of carbon dioxide from distributed sources is often neglected as a viable solution to the global problem of CO₂ emissions management. Small scale power plants, including those applicable to the transportation sector, can be designed to capture their CO₂ exhaust stream, provided it is not heavily diluted with air. Liquefaction of carbon dioxide allows the captured CO₂ to be stored densely, with a minimal energetic penalty and space requirement, until it can be permanently sequestered. In this short-term solution, the energetic penalty for CO₂ capture can be further offset by exploiting novel energy conversion processes involving regeneration of the reaction product stream – a simple strategy that is not exploited in conventional systems. More importantly, in the long-term, as the renewable energy infrastructure is built up, the collected CO₂ can be recycled into synthetic carbon-based liquid fuels which act as energy carriers in the sustainable carbon economy.     

Uncovering CO2 emission drivers under regional industrial transfer in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt: a multi-layer LMDI decomposition analysis

With the relocation of heavy industries moving from downstream region to upstream and midstream regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), it is critical to encourage coordinated low carbon development in different regions within the YREB. This paper uncovers the evolution of CO₂ emissions in different regions within the YREB for the period of 2000–2017. It decomposes regional CO₂ emission changes using the temporal and cross-regional three-layer logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Besides, it decomposes industrial CO₂ emission changes using the temporal two-layer LMDI method. The research results show that economic growth is the major driver for regional CO₂ emission disparities. The mitigation drivers, such as energy intensity and energy structure, lead to a more decreased CO₂ emission in the downstream region than in the upstream and midstream regions. In addition, it proposes several policy recommendations based upon the local realities, including improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy structure, promoting advanced technologies and equipment transfers, and coordinating the development in the upstream, midstream and downstream regions within the YREB.     

积极开展核电研究开辟能源新途径

核电是一种安全、低碳、功率密度高、可大规模利用的能源,具有高效和CO2等化学气体零排放的优点.从中国核电站建设政策推进,核电站安全性,核电技术特别是中国"华龙一号"和小型多功能模块式压水堆ACP100"玲龙一号"核电站技术的建设、运营和效益等各方面在内陆建站的概况,利用核电和H2对有关产业实现CO2超低排放和零排放的影...     

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

This study analyzes CO₂ emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO₂ intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO₂ emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO₂ trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO₂ emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO₂ emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO₂ emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO₂ intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.     

广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望

能源消费是人类活动排放CO₂等温室气体的主要来源,碳减排已成为我国能源发展的一个重要约束因素。2012年全世界能源消费排放3.173 4×1010 t CO₂,中国能源消费排放的CO₂已占世界总排放量的26.0%。2012年全世界人均CO₂排放量4 510 kg,而中国人均CO₂排放量达到了6 093 kg。同年广东省人均CO₂排放量为5 224 kg,高于世界平均水平,低于全国平均水平。随着节能减排和应对气候变化工作的推进,广东的单位产值能耗水平逐年降低,能源结构不断改善,使得全省化石能源消费带来的CO₂排放量的增长势头得到抑制,2012年的排放量比2011年略有减少。按目前的发展趋势预测,到2020年,广东CO₂排放总量将达到1.606 2×108 t碳当量,比2012年增加9.69×106 t碳当量,人均CO₂排放量将达到5 287 kg,略高于2012年的5 224 kg。如果在“十三五”期间加快第三产业发展,则到2020年广东省化石能源消费总量将比2012年下降2.7%,CO₂排放总量将比2012年下降3.5%,人均CO₂排放量将由2012年的5 224 kg下降到2020年的4 795 kg,接近世界平均水平。     

2020年我国钢铁行业CO_2排放趋势和减排路径分析

我国钢铁行业CO_2排放占全国排放总量的近20%,分析钢铁行业的CO_2排放趋势和减排路径对我国控制温室气体排放有着重要的现实意义。本文从影响钢铁行业排放的主要影响因素着手,分析了钢铁产量和工序能耗的现状及未来发展趋势,测算了2010～2020年钢铁行业排放趋势和减排潜力,同时给出了减排途径和各种减排措施的贡献度,并提出了相关政策建议。     

Carbon balance implications of coconut biodiesel utilization in the Philippine automotive transport sector

Carbon dioxide inventory implications of a biodiesel program in the Philippines are assessed. Biodiesel is assumed to be the methyl ester of coconut oil. Different scenarios for the use of agricultural residues as fuel for heat or power generation are analyzed. Reduction in net CO₂ emissions are estimated at 77–104 g/MJ of diesel displaced by biodiesel. These benefits are found to be particularly sensitive to the extent to which residues are utilized. The predicted reductions in CO₂ emissions are much greater than values reported in recent studies on biodiesel derived from other vegetable oils, due both to the large amount of potential fuel in the residual biomass and to the low-energy inputs in traditional coconut farming techniques. However, agricultural productivity constraints suggest that by 2010, the maximum level of biodiesel substitution for the entire country is only 8%. At this level of utilization reductions of 2.85–3.85% in the Philippines’ projected 130×10⁶ tons of carbon dioxide emissions per annum can be realized.