Developing and comparing optimal and empirical land-use models for the development of an urbanized watershed forest in Taiwan

The objective of this study is to demonstrate the utility of optimal spatial models for modeling specific spatial patterns to facilitate rational land-use planning of a watershed in northern Taiwan. Optimization was implemented using simulated annealing in a spatial pattern optimization model (OLPSIM), and developments predicted by the drivers of past land-use changes were modeled with the CLUE-s model. The landscapes simulated by the models were then input to a precipitation-runoff model (the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System; HEC-HMS) to assess the impact of land-use patterns on runoff in the watershed and sub-watershed scales. The results suggest that the three strategies produced very different landscapes under medium intensity scenarios. Specifically, maximizing the size of forest patches caused deforestation of small forest patches, resulting in a large, complex-shaped, dispersed forest; minimizing forest patch shapes resulted in the dissection of large, complex-shaped forests into smaller, simpler-shaped fragments; and land development based on past trends resulted in the aggregation of urbanized land-use in gentler terrains. The results of hydrological simulations suggest that the three land-use strategies differ less in their total hydrological outputs, but more in their distribution of hydrological outputs across different sub-watersheds. Investigating more spatially explicit hydrologic impacts of urbanization at the sub-basin scale may provide additional information that would help decision-makers evaluate proposed land-use policies more thoroughly.     

Urban sustainability in developing countries’ megacities: modelling and predicting future urban growth in Lagos

In the first part of the paper urban sustainability issues in African countries are considered with a focus on urban growth. The need for urban management tools that are able to provide prospective scenarios is addressed. Urban simulations can represent a useful approach to an understanding of the consequences of current planning policies or their incompleteness. Simulations of future urban growth are usually quite difficult without tools that embrace the complexity of the urban system. The second part of this paper describes an urban growth simulation for the city of Lagos in Nigeria using a dynamic spatial model prototype. We propose a bottom-up approach, integrating land-use factors with a dynamic approach for modelling future urban land-use scenarios. The model for Lagos was calibrated and tested using measured time-series data on land-use, through a set of spatial metrics and Kappa (κ) coefficients. Afterwards, a twenty-year simulation was run until 2020. The simulation results are realistic and relatively accurate, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model. This work was performed in the framework of the European Commission’s MOLAND project.     

An agent-based procedure with an embedded agent learning model for residential land growth simulation: The case study of Nanjing,China

The agent-based modelling (ABM) is commonly used to simulate urban land growth. A key challenge of ABM for the simulation of urban land-use dynamics in support of sustainable urban management is to understand and model how human individuals make and develop their location decisions that then shape urban land-use patterns. To investigate this issue, we focus on modelling the agent learning process in residential location decision-making process, to represent individuals' personal and interpersonal experience learning during their decision-making. We have constructed an extended reinforcement learning model to represent the human agents' learning when they make location decisions. Consequently, we propose and have developed a new agent-based procedure for residential land growth simulation that incorporates an agent learning model, an agent decision-making model, a land use conversion model, and the impacts of urban land zoning and the developers' desires. The proposed procedure was first tested by using hypothetical data. Then the model was used for a simulation of the urban residential land growth in the city of Nanjing, China. By validating the model against empirical data, the results showed that adding agent learning model contributed to the representation of the agent's adaptive location decision-making and the improvement of the model's simulation power to a certain extent. The agent-based procedure with the agent learning model embedded is applicable to studying the formulation of urban development policies and testing the responses of individuals to these policies.     

A scenario-based approach to assess Ho Chi Minh City’s urban development strategies against the impact of climate change

This paper presents an approach to quantifying current and future city-wide flood risks to Ho Chi Minh City. Here urban planning scenarios linking urban development and climate change explore the main driving forces of future risk. According to the redefined role of urban environmental planning in times of climate change, spatial planning needs to go beyond traditional planning approaches to bring together, draw upon and integrate individual policies for urban adaptation strategies for land-use planning. Our initial research results highlight that the spatiotemporal processes of urban development, together with climate change, are the central driving forces for climate-related impacts. The influence of planned urban developments to the year 2025 on future flood risk is seen to be significantly greater than that of projected sea-level rise to the year 2100. These results aid local decision making in an effort to better understand the nature of future climate change risks to the city and to identify the main driver of urban exposure.     

Landscape metrics in the analysis of urban land use patterns: A case study in a Spanish metropolitan area

Urban growth patterns are characteristic of spatial changes that take place in metropolitan areas (MA). They are particularly prominent in more recently formed MAs, such as those in certain locations in Spain, where the structure of the traditional city has undergone sweeping changes. Given the capacity of spatial metrics to characterize landscape structure, these metrics can be a valuable instrument to identify growth patterns in MAs and to evaluate possible urban growth options, based on spatial characteristics.This article focuses on a medium-sized MA (Granada, Spain), and explores the use of spatial metrics to quantify changes in the urban growth patterns reflected in three future scenarios (2020). The scenarios were simulated with a model based on cellular automata, which reproduced three urban growth processes (aggregation, compaction, and dispersion) and four urban growth patterns (aggregated, linear, leapfrogging, and nodal). The scenarios were evaluated with metrics that quantified changes in the spatial characteristics of urban processes. Thus, for example, the NP and AREA_MN allowed us to characterize the decreased aggregation of high-density residential land uses in one scenario (S1) and the linear growth patterns in industrial land uses in another scenario (S2). In this way, spatial metrics were found to be useful for the evaluation of urban planning.     

Assessing the influence of rapid urban growth and regional policies on biological resources

Global human population transitioned from a rural to urban majority in 2008. The struggle to accommodate urban growth while simultaneously conserving natural resources will be felt around the globe. The capacity to project urban growth scenarios that reflect various public policies so that their relative impacts can be evaluated on natural resources is broadly needed. We developed a framework for such analyses by using a spatially explicit urban growth model to project seven different growth scenarios that represent a range of public policies. The outputs were analyzed in terms of their impacts on 14 types of conservation priority lands. The scenarios covered policies that ranged from “Business as Usual,” to “Farmland Soils Protection,” to “Compact Growth.” At state-government convened meetings, regional scientists identified and assembled the 14 key conservation priority data layers reflecting high value open space and conservation opportunities. We assessed the impact of each projected urban growth output with each conservation priority layer. The scenario with the least overall ecological impact was the Compact Growth Scenario; the Great Cities Scenario was also relatively low. Because of its efficiency and ease of use, the general availability of needed data, and its suitability for use by local governments, the method presented here could be incorporated for other regions of the world where working landscapes are negatively affected by urban growth.     

A multi-scenario forecast of urban change: A study on urban growth in the Algarve

The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use resources were widely exploited to create an integrated tourist industry. In this area, economic prosperity has led to an increasing population and a significant growth of infrastructures to cope with the demand from the hospitality sector. The far-reaching land-use changes have, however, led to high pressures on the coastal areas of the Algarve. This region has shown an increasing loss of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of urban areas. This paper proposes a dynamic assessment of urban growth in the Algarve based on non-linear complex system modelling by using cellular automata converging on qualitative story lines with quantitative spatial methodologies. This new methodology utilizes both quantitative and qualitative spatial results by a comparative validation of built scenarios, in order to highlight future land use trends. In particular, three scenarios will be explored, each with distinct specific socio-economic paths. Our analysis to identify the scenario with the best fit, based on the evolution of the actual 2006 land cover, enabled us to build a future urban growth model for 2020 which was quantitatively assessed. The outcome suggests a picture of continuing growth for the region of the Algarve within the framework of current policies and regressive spatial trends.     

我国台湾地区“国土”空间分区管制的经验借鉴

揭示当前国土空间分区分类管制的主要问题与转变目标,为其制度构建提供经验借鉴。通过研究我国台湾地区由都市、非都市的二元管理体系向全域空间管控的转变过程,总结归纳其土地使用分区管制的方式、总体框架及法律法规体系。发现我国台湾地区土地使用分区管制这一落实规划目标的基本工具贯穿始终,且分区分类体系完整,管制规则及法规体系已成型。基于相似的空间整合背景与国土空间总目标下,提出在全域空间上建立通则式的分区管制制度,结合国土空间规划现有的“五级三类”体系拟定了分区管制框架构想,并总结了整合路径的经验与差异性。     

Effects of Public Investments on Urban Land Values

The study reported in this paper was an attempt to develop a model for identifying and assessing the impact of alternative development policies on urban land values. The statistical analysis carried out suggests that the most important factor determining the values of urban land is accessibility to the central urban functions. Age of existing structures and zoning regulations are secondary factors. Since future development of central urban functions can be projected with the help of existing models and since accessibility of places (particularly by means of public transportation) and zoning regulations can be influenced by public authorities, indirect public actions considerably influence urban land values.     

Spatial externalities, neighbourhood rules and CA land-use modelling

This paper investigates which, how and to what extent land-use related neighbourhood effects play a role in urban dynamics. To justify the use of cellular automata land-use models for spatial policy support, existing neighbourhood rules need to be better founded. This research eliminates a number of uncertainties in the land-use model outcomes by introducing improved empirically founded and regional-specific neighbourhood rules. This allows for a better evaluation and justification of spatial policy scenarios and their effects on future land-use dynamics.     

Land-use aspects of air-quality management

This paper describes relationships between land-use and air quality. Until very recently, strategies directed toward improved air quality relied almost exclusively upon fuel switching and employment of emission control devices. However, air quality can also be influenced through alteration of land-use patterns. Engineers during their education are generally not exposed to land-use and other socio-economic aspects of air-quality management, although federal and state policy maker are increasingly recognizing that exclusive reliance upon emission control devices is not a very satisfactory long range approach. Alteration of land use as it affects the living, working, and transportation patterns must be considered as well.The first two sections of this paper attempt to provide guidelines within which land-use alternatives can be meaningfully evaluated. Air-quality standars and other aspects of air-quality management are described and interpreted within a quantitative cost-benefit framework.The rudiments of urban geography are also provided in order to introduce the readers to the economics and social forces which shape cities. The fundamental purpose is to make technologists aware of the conflict between these forces and plans for arbitrary changes in spatial patterns. Next, energy variables are proposed as a way to meaningfully relate land-use and environmental pollution with society's quest for affluence. The section on meteorology and dispersion models describes and criticizes the modeling tools and simulations currently available for the prediction of pollution dispersion. Finally, an urban simulation is used to integrate the foregoing material. The air-pollution propensities of various land-use alternatives are assessed.Thus a diversity of topics—all with the common thread of relating urban air quality to urban land use—is addressed. Rather than providing ready-made answers, this paper describes useful evaluation tools and provides insight into the complex problems and interactions involved.     

城市总体规划空间引导效能分析——以常熟市为例

空间引导效能历来是城市总体规划实施评估的核心内容。基于历年遥感影像数据,采用城市生长极核模型、用地调控效力指数、Logit回归和用地经济效益等定量方法,对常熟几轮城市总体规划中城市总体布局、重点地区用地增长、中心城区用地置换和乡镇撤并等空间政策的调控效力展开研究。结果表明:现实城市总体布局与规划构想存在一定偏差;建设用地扩张与土地经济效益空间不相匹配;规划调控和区位条件成为影响地块闲置率的主导因素。规划对建设用地的调控效力有所增强,但对重点镇的用地调控却出现较大偏差;中心城区工业用地的"退二进三"政策效果显著,"乡镇撤并"对城镇生活性用地的调控绩效明显,但却未能抑制工业用地的散点蔓延,"一镇多区"格局仍然存在。     

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

This paper presents two sets of functional indicators that were implemented and tested for the assessment of spatial aspects of future land-use configurations as simulated by a land-use model. This is potentially useful for the ex-ante evaluation of spatial planning policies. The indicators were applied in a Dutch case study and relate to two important themes in Dutch spatial planning: compact urbanisation and mixing of land uses. After a short introduction of these themes, the sets of indicators are presented which are used for their evaluation. These indicators are applied to simulations based on two scenarios for land-use development in the Netherlands up to 2030. After a discussion of the results we conclude that the combined application of land-use models and indicators produces new and potentially useful information for policy makers, although both the model and the associated indicators are still in a state of development.     

Towards Facilitative and Pro-poor Land-Use Management in South African Urban Areas: Learning from International Experience

Few would argue with the proposition that land-use management is one of the most powerful tools in the context of planning, both in South Africa and internationally, with the potential to transform the urban landscape. Yet despite its potential, it has been neglected both in terms of academic enquiry and legislative reform. This has resulted in land-use management functioning as an undesirable and unwieldy tool that perpetuates the modernist ideals of land-use separation and sprawling suburbia, and most worryingly, the perpetuation of an urban form that is essentially anti-poor. This paper initiates a search for the appropriate criteria for a land-use management system in South Africa’s urban areas. We argue for a land-use management system that moves away from the traditional exclusive emphasis on zoning towards a more flexible system based on a tiered set of plans. This system must take into account and respond to the dynamics of the urban land market, both its formal and informal dimensions, and directly address the poor and their needs as the central focus of land-use management.     

A comparative location analysis of a retail activity: The gasoline service station

This study focuses on the competitive processes and locational patterns of a convenience retail activity within two urban areas exhibiting distinct differences in operational characteristics. Impacts of various economic, demographic, and political environmental factors on the distribution of gasoline service stations in urbanized Hong Kong and metropolitan Denver are examined. Measurement of distributional patterns (utilizing nearest-neighbor and spatial association statistics) and socioeconomic/demographic influences (employing regression analysis) reveal remarkable similarities between the two areas. Investigation of several site-related characteristics (zoning and intersection orientation) suggests that they may be significant agglomerative influences accounting both for the consistent location patterns as well as the weak explanatory power of demand variables.     

How current and future urban patterns respond to urban planning? An integrated cellular automata modeling approach

While many publications predict future urban scenarios, few have deliberated the impact of issued urban planning on scenario prediction. We propose a planning-constrained model (named PCGA-CA) that integrates cellular automata (CA) and genetic algorithm (GA) to simulate current and future urban patterns under the spatial constraints of urban planning. The planning regulations include three types: fully allowed area (FAA), partially allowed area (PAA), and strictly prohibited area (SPA), where we propose a planning implementation parameter (PIP) to represent the stringency in PAA. Under different PIPs, we apply the PCGA-CA model to simulate the 2015 urban patterns and predict the 2030 and 2045 scenarios for Ningbo city, China. The results show that the regulations substantially affect the simulation accuracy and urban pattern. As the planning regulations become less stringent, the accuracy decreases from 90.3% to 89.4% and the urban pattern becomes less compact. In particular, the urban pattern is the most compact when the regulations are not imposed. The PCGA-CA predicts the quantity and location of illegal urban development, and identifies spatially varying urban growth across planning regulations. For the same year, the urban patterns with different PIPs illustrate substantial differences in landscape metrics. The simulations of the current urban pattern should help urban planners and local authorities assess past implementations of urban planning, while the scenario predictions can offer a view of the future by evaluating the consequences of different planning regulations.     

Refining landscape change models through outlier analysis in the Muskegon watershed of Michigan

Balancing natural resource protection and urban development is of concern to researchers, planners and citizens who are aware of the environmental, social and economic impacts of urban land use. Land-use change models can assist in finding this balance. An objective of this research was to build a better model of land-use change by integrating quantitative and qualitative techniques. A modelling approach is presented that combines statistical logistic regression with field-based outlier analysis. To this end, a collaborative effort between researchers, who are adept at building models, and local experts, who better understand the dynamics of landscape change in their communities, was undertaken. The findings indicate that this modelling approach is successful in improving overall model performance, as measured by pseudo r-squared value, and identifying additional drivers of land-use change, namely zoning, soil suitability and distance to highway interchange. Most importantly, this collaborative modelling process, involving researchers and local planners, has practical utility for land-use decision making.     

城市边缘区生态环境保护研究综述

论文通过文献调查、概念分析和相关历史研究,尝试梳理边缘区环境现象、生态源头问题认知及解题方法,重点解析了生物多样性保护、生态要素保护与土地利用规划导向等边缘区重点研究领域,对现行程序管理与评估手段中的薄弱环节予以详细阐释。研究围绕三方面展开：（1）城市边缘区生态环境品质关系到城镇生态、空间形态以及城镇化管理,规划需协调建设与非建设用地并提升保护区的复合生态服务功能;（2）自然生境与农林非建设用地为主要保护区域,跨部门构建内连城区、外接乡村腹地的绿色生态空间网络,是重要的规划手段;（3）降低边缘区规划建设影响关乎保护的长效性,需要实体空间保护规划与政策法规及管理软件支撑协同作业。