Structure and impacts of fuel economy standards for passenger cars in China

By the end of 2006, there were about 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times as many as in 2001. To slow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China began implementing passenger car fuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuel consumption limits resulted in a sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decrease of about 11%, from just over 9 l/100 km to approximately 8 l/100 km, from 2002 to 2006. However, we project that upon completion of Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China may drop only by an additional 1%, to approximately 7.9 l/100 km. This is due to the fact that a majority of cars sold in 2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits. Simultaneously, other trends in the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weight and increases in standards-exempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achieved from 2002 to 2006. It is clear that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumption limits are required to slow and, ultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption and greenhouse gases from China's transportation sector.     

Techno-economic comparison of series hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and regular cars

We examine the competitiveness of series hybrid compared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regular cars. We use public domain data to determine efficiency, fuel consumption, total costs of ownership and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from drivetrain choices. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seen both as an alternative to petrol, diesel and parallel hybrid cars, as well as an intermediate stage towards fully electric or fuel cell cars.We calculate the fuel consumption and costs of four diesel-fuelled series hybrid, four plug-in hybrid and four fuel cell car configurations, and compared these to three reference cars. We find that series hybrid cars may reduce fuel consumption by 34-47%, but cost €5000-12,000 more. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 89-103 g CO₂ km⁻¹ compared to reference petrol (163 g km⁻¹) and diesel cars (156 g km⁻¹). Series hybrid cars with wheel motors have lower weight and 7-21% lower fuel consumption than those with central electric motors.The fuel cell car remains uncompetitive even if production costs of fuel cells come down by 90%. Plug-in hybrid cars are competitive when driving large distances on electricity, and/or if cost of batteries come down substantially. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 60-69 g CO₂ km⁻¹.     

CO2 benefit from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars in Sweden

Control of CO₂ emissions is a major environmental issue in most countries. The Swedish car market shows remarkably low new Diesel passenger car registrations compared to the average European Union car market. Therefore, a simple way to decrease CO₂ emissions from the transport sector in Sweden would be the replacement of gasoline by Diesel passenger cars, which emit less CO₂. The combined effects of probable changes in Diesel and gasoline future fuel consumption, new passenger car sales and market segmentation have been evaluated for different Diesel passenger cars penetrations. The results show a benefit in CO₂ emissions of about 2.8% with 30% Diesel penetration; if Diesel penetration reaches 50%, the benefit attains 7.5%. Future rises of CO₂ emissions caused by higher new passenger car registrations or unfavourable market segmentation could be at least partially counterbalanced by the introduction of more Diesel passenger cars. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO₂ emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO₂ emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO₂ emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO₂ emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO₂ emissions estimation models.     

CO2 benefit from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars. Case of Ireland

The decrease of CO₂ emissions is one way to minimize climate changes. An efficient way to decrease these emissions is the replacement of gasoline passenger cars (PCs) by diesel ones, which emit less CO₂. Most of the member countries of the European Union (EU) have high percentages of new diesel PC registrations; however, this percentage remains less than 17% in Ireland. The benefit on CO₂ emitted from new PCs is studied in the case of an increased diesel penetration in Ireland, after several scenarios using the current and estimated future PC sales and estimated fuel consumption. The results show that, in the case of new PCs, a CO₂ benefit of more than 2.9% can be achieved, if a diesel penetration higher than 30% occurs in the case of the current fleet. If this penetration reaches 50%, this benefit will be higher than 7.4%. Future total CO₂ emissions from new PCs can be partially controlled by the introduction of diesel PC or the replacement of heavy PCs by lighter ones. Future fuel consumption of gasoline and diesel PCs and the percentage of diesel penetration are the key factors for this control.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

CO2 emissions change from the introduction of diesel passenger cars: Case of Greece

An efficient way to decrease the CO₂ emissions is the replacement of gasoline passenger cars (PC) by diesel ones, which emit less CO₂. This can be more effective in Greece where the percentage of new diesel PC remains less than 1%, contrary to the other countries of the European Union, which have high diesel penetrations. The benefit of CO₂ emitted from new PC is studied in the case of an increased percentage of diesel PC in Greece, using several scenarios taking into account the current and future new car registrations and fuel consumption. The results show that a CO₂ emission reduction of more than 5.2% can be achieved if a diesel penetration higher than 30% occurs in the case of current fleet. If the penetration reaches 50%, this benefit is higher than 10.5%. Exhaust CO₂ emissions from future new PC will increase significantly in this country and can be partially controlled by the introduction of diesel PC.     

An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households’ cars

Reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the transport sector is a priority for Great Britain and other European countries as part of their agreements made in the Kyoto protocol and the Voluntary Agreement. To achieve these goals, it has been proposed to increase the market share of diesel vehicles which are more efficient than petrol ones. Based on partial approaches, previous research concluded that increasing the share of diesel vehicles will decrease CO₂ emissions (see 1 and 18; Zervas, 2006). Unlike these approaches, I use an integral approach based on discrete choice models to analyse diesel vehicle penetration in a broader context of transport in Great Britain. I provide for the first time, empirical evidence which is in line with Bonilla's (2009) argument that only improvements in vehicle efficiency will not be enough to achieve their goals of mitigation of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The model shows the technical limitations that the penetration of diesel vehicles faces and that a combination of improvements in public transportation and taxes on fuel prices is the most effective policy combination to reduce the total amount of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions among the analysed dieselisation polices.     

The principal–agent problem and transport energy use: Case study of company lease cars in the Netherlands

Barriers exist for improvement of energy efficiency, of which the principal–agent problem is considered an important one. The principal–agent problem is a potential barrier for energy policies based on economic instruments, as the decision maker may be partially insulated from the price signal given by such policies. We estimate the size and the impact of the principal–agent problem for cars provided by companies as a benefit to employees in the Netherlands. Of all passenger cars in the Netherlands, 11% is classified as company cars, which consume 21% of the total energy consumption by passenger cars. As company cars are newer, operate more diesel engines, but are also larger, the fuel efficiency is slightly worse than that of private cars. Company cars seem to drive longer distances for commuting than the national average of private cars. Together, this might result in a net 1–7% increase of all fuel use of passenger cars in the Netherlands. This indicates that there is potential to reduce energy consumption of company cars and a need for policies aimed at improving energy efficiency of company cars.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅲ)——石油能源产品在交通运输等行业中的应用和碳减排

在我国中长期的终端能源需求中石油将占约15%的份额,其中55%～60%将被用于交通运输行业。逐步减少交通运输领域石油能源产品的使用量,对减少能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量十分重要。目前国内外研究机构预测的中国2050年货运周转总量(8×104～9×104Gt.km)及公路货运周转量均明显偏高,造成预测的运输燃料消耗量太高,这也反映出调整中国经济产业结构和进出口贸易结构的紧迫性。减少私人乘用车的拥有量和出行量也是节能减排的关键,采用西方发达国家私人乘用车的比例,预测中国2050年将拥有5×108～6×108辆乘用车不符合中国人口众多、城市中心区人口密度的特点,将乘用车数量控制在3.0×108辆的水平比较恰当。目前全球运输领域二氧化碳排放量约占总排放量的20%～25%,中国运输领域的二氧化碳排放量将逐步上升,占总排放量的份额将从目前的7%提高到2050年的30%以上。应努力采取各种措施,使2050年乘用车的二氧化碳排放强度降低到40g/km的水平。除了减少化石能源石油产品使用量、使用生物质燃料、推广纯电动汽车和开发燃料电池汽车外,改变出行方式、发展方便快捷的公共交通显得十分重要。预计我国2050年燃料电池汽车将占到小汽车保有量的20%左右,纯电动汽车占30%左右,各种混合动力汽车将占50%左右。为了使中国2050年二氧化碳排放总量控制在40×108～50×108t的水平,有可能也有必要将石油的使用量控制在6.0×108t,交通运输领域石油能源产品使用量控制在4.0×108t以下。     

Dazzled by diesel? The impact on carbon dioxide emissions of the shift to diesels in Europe through 2009

This paper identifies trends in new gasoline and diesel passenger car characteristics in the European Union between 1995 and 2009. By 2009 diesels had captured over 55% of the new vehicle market. While the diesel version of a given car model may have as much as 35% lower fuel use/km and 25% lower CO₂ emissions than its gasoline equivalent, diesel buyers have chosen increasingly large and more powerful cars than the gasoline market. As a result, new diesels bought in 2009 had only 2% lower average CO₂ emissions than new gasoline cars, a smaller advantage than in 1995. A Laspeyres decomposition investigates which factors were important contributors to the observed emission reductions and which factors offset savings in other areas. More than 95% of the reduction in CO₂ emissions per km from new vehicles arose because both diesel and gasoline new vehicle emissions/km fell, and only 5% arose because of the shift from gasoline to diesel technology. Increases in vehicle mass and power for both gasoline and diesel absorbed much of the technological efficiency improvements offered by both technologies. We also observe changes in the gasoline and diesel fleets in eight EU countries and find changes in fuel and emissions intensities consistent with the changes in new vehicles reported. While diesel cars continue to be driven far farther than gasoline cars, we attribute only some of this difference to a “rebound effect”. We conclude that while diesel technology has permitted significant fuel savings, the switch from gasoline to diesel in the new vehicle market contributed little itself to the observed reductions in CO₂ emissions from new vehicles.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Economics and greenhouse gas balance of biogas use systems in the Finnish transportation sector

Energy decisions play an essential role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. Biogas is a renewable energy source and can be used as an energy source for gas-operated cars or for electric cars. This paper compares different ways to use biogas, which is produced on a medium scale anaerobic digestion plants, as an energy source for transportation. The research is conducted from an economic and environmental point of view, and the option to deliver upgraded biogas via a natural gas grid is taken into account. Different processes for the use of biogas for transportation purposes are compared using life cycle assessment (LCA) methods in the Finnish operational environment. It seems that the most economical way is to use biogas in gas-operated cars due to the high price of methane for vehicle fuel use. A new feed-in tariff for electricity produced with biogas will, however, have highly positive economic effects on electricity production from biogas. From the environmental point of view, the highest CO₂ reductions are gained when biogas is used in gas-operated cars or in CHP plants for power and heat production. During the transition stage, it might be reasonable to use biogas in gas-operated cars and most importantly in heavy vehicles to reduce GHG and local pollutants rapidly. If biogas production is located near a natural gas grid, the biogas can be delivered effectively via the natural gas grid. The use of biogas in gas-operated cars is an effective way to reduce carbon dioxide significantly in the transportation sector.     

Future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Jordanian industries

Most, i.e. 85%, of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Jordan emanate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. The industrial sector consumed 23.3% of the total national fuel consumption for heat and electric-power generation in 1999. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing processes represent 12.1% of the total national CO₂ emissions. Carbon dioxide is also released as a result of the calcining of carbonates during the manufacture of cement and iron. Electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy, in 1999 represented 45% of total fuel used for heat and power nationally. Heavy fuel oil and diesel oil represented 46% and 7%, respectively, of all energy used by industry. Scenarios for future energy-demands and the emissions of gaseous pollutants, including GHGs, have been predicted for the industrial sector. For these, the development of a baseline scenario relied on historical data concerning consumption, major industries’ outputs, as well as upon pertinent published governmental policies and plans. Possible mitigation options that could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions are assessed, with the aim of achieving a 10% reduction by 2010, compared with the baseline scenario. Many viable CO₂ emission mitigation measures have been identified for the industrial sector, and some of these can be considered as attractive opportunities due to the low financial investments required and short pay back periods. These mitigation options have been selected on the basis of low GHG emission rates and expert judgement as to their viability for wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. The predictions show that the use of more efficient lighting and motors, advanced energy systems and more effective boilers and furnaces will result in a significant reduction in the rates of GHG emissions at an initial cost of between 30 and 90 US$ t⁻¹ of CO₂ release avoided. However, most of these measures have a negative cost per ton of CO₂ reduced, indicating short pay-back periods for the capital investments needed.     

On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe

‘Business as usual’ scenarios in long-term energy forecasts are crucial for scenario-based policy analyses. This article focuses on fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks, a long-disputed issue with serious implications for worldwide energy use and CO₂ emissions. The current status in Europe is explained and future developments are analysed with the aid of historical data of the last three decades from the United States and Europe. As a result of this analysis, fuel economy values are proposed for use as assumptions in baseline energy/transport scenarios in the 15 ‘old’ European Union Member States. Proposed values are given for new gasoline and diesel cars and for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. The increasing discrepancy between vehicle fuel consumption measured under test conditions and that in the real world is also considered. One main conclusion is that the European Commission's voluntary agreement with the automobile industry should not be assumed to fully achieve its target under baseline conditions, nor should it be regarded as a major stimulus for autonomous vehicle efficiency improvements after 2010. A second conclusion is that three very recent studies enjoying authority across the EU tend to be overly optimistic as regards the technical progress for conventional and alternative vehicle propulsion technologies under ‘business as usual’ conditions.     

The impact of fiscal and other measures on new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe

This paper examines the impact of national fiscal measures in the EU (EU15) on passenger car sales and the CO₂ emissions intensity of the new car fleet over the period 1995–2004. CO₂ emissions and energy consumption from road transport have been increasing in the EU and as a result since 1999 the EU has attempted to implement a high profile policy strategy to address this problem at European level. Less prominent is the fact that Member States apply vehicle and fuel taxes, which may also be having an impact on the quantity of passenger cars sold and their CO₂ emissions intensity. Diesel vehicle sales have increased appreciably in many countries over the same period and this study makes a first attempt to examine whether Member State fiscal measures have influenced this phenomenon. This work uses a panel dataset to investigate the relationship between national vehicle and fuel taxes on new passenger car sales and the fleet CO₂ emissions intensity in EU15 over a 10-year period. Our results show that national vehicle and fuel taxes have had an impact on passenger car sales and fleet CO₂ emissions intensity and that different taxes have disparate effects.     

How to decarbonize the transport sector?

This article investigates possible evolution pathways for the transport sector during the 21st century, globally and in Europe, under a climate change control scenario. We attempt to shed light on the question how the transport sector should best be decarbonized. We perform our study with the global bottom-up energy systems model TIAM-ECN, a version of the TIAM model that is broadly used for the purpose of developing energy technology and climate policy scenarios, which we adapted for analyzing in particular the transport sector. Given the global aggregated perspective of TIAM-ECN, that in its current version yields at every point in time a single CO₂ price for different forms of energy use across geographic regions and economic sectors, it generates a decarbonization process that for the transport sector occurs later in time than for the power sector. This merely reflects that emission reductions are generally cheaper for electricity production than for transportation, and that it is thus cost-minimizing to spend limited financial resources available for CO₂ emissions abatement in the power sector first. In our scenarios the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines and fuel cells, rather than electricity as energy carrier and batteries to store it, gradually becomes the dominant transport technology. This outcome is in agreement with some recent publications but is at loggerheads with the current popularity of the electric car. Based on sensitivity analysis we conclude that even if the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure proves about an order of magnitude more costly than modeled in our base case, electricity based transportation only broadly emerges if simultaneously also the costs of electric cars go down by at least 40% with respect to our reference costs. One of the explanations for why the electric car is today, by e.g. entrepreneurs, often considered the supposed winner amongst multiple future transportation options is that the decision horizon of many analysts is no more than a few decades, instead of a full century. Electric cars fit better the current infrastructure than hydrogen fueled vehicles, so that from a short time perspective (covering the next decade or two) investments are not optimally spent by establishing an extensive hydrogen distribution network. Hence the path-dependency created by the present existence of a vast power transmission and distribution network can make electricity the most efficient choice for transportation, but only if the time frame considered is short. Electric transportation generally proves the more expensive alternative in our long-term perspective, except when electric car costs are assumed to drop substantially.     

Modelling energy consumption of the Jordanian transportation sector: the application of multivariate linear regression and adaptive neuro-fuzzy techniques

Studying the current level of energy consumed by the transportation sector in Jordan is a top priority and an important variable when it comes to modelling accurate projections of future consumption in order to monitor Jordan's sustainable development. This study compares two methods for modelling energy consumption within the Jordanian transportation sector: a multivariate linear regression model and a Neuro-fuzzy model. Within these two paradigms, energy consumption is modelled as a function of a number of factors such as: vehicles number, level of income and ownership, and fuel prices. A parallelism between the two models is highlighted providing a precise simulation for the energy consumption in the Jordanian transportation sector. The comparison proposes that when it comes to forecasting, the performance of the neuro-fuzzy model exceeds that of the multivariate linear regression model.     

交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

Grey relation analysis of motor vehicular energy consumption in Taiwan

Grey relation analysis (GRA) was utilized in this study to capture the dynamic characteristics of different factors in the transportation system during their development process and to evaluate the relative influence of the fuel price, the gross domestic product, the number of motor vehicles and the vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) per energy increase. Furthermore, results from this method were then compared with the OECD decoupling index. This comparison revealed that the steady growth of economic development was strongly correlated with vehicular fuel consumption. The relation grade of 0.967 implies that the increase in the number of passenger cars was another important factor for energy increase. As for the motorcycles, the relative influence of VKT was insignificant, and the positive relationship to G_FK indicated that the performance of vehicular energy efficiency has improved in recent years. In comparison to the other factors, the contribution of fuel price was obscure. Additionally, the analysis of decoupling effects also yielded similar results to those of GRA. The coupling index between economic growth and fuel price was observed for passenger cars and motorcycles, while the VKT was relatively decoupled.