Combined Effects of Reservoir Operations and Climate Warming on the Flow Regime of Hydropower Bypass Reaches of California's Sierra Nevada

Alterations to flow regimes from regulation and climatic change both affect the biophysical functioning of rivers over long time periods and large spatial areas. Historically, however, the effects of these flow alteration drivers have been studied separately. In this study, results from unregulated and regulated river management models were assessed to understand how flow regime alterations from river regulation differ under future climate conditions in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Four representative flow alteration metrics—mean annual flow, low flow duration, centroid timing and mean weekly rate of decrease—were calculated and statistically characterized under historical and future unregulated and regulated conditions over a 20‐year period at each of the eight regulated river locations below dams across the Sierra Nevada. Future climatic conditions were represented by assuming an increase in air temperature of 6 °C above historical (1981–2000) air temperatures, with no change in other meteorological conditions. Results indicate that climate warming will measurably alter some aspects of the flow regime. By comparison, however, river regulation with business‐as‐usual operations will alter flow regimes much more than climate warming. Existing reservoirs can possibly be used to dampen the anticipated effects of climate warming through improved operations, though additional research is needed to identify the full suite of such possibilities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying Whitewater Recreation Opportunities in Cataract Canyon of the Colorado River,Utah: Aggregating Acceptable Flows and Hydrologic Data to Identify Boatable Days

The structural norm approach was combined with the Potential for Conflict Index to define recreation streamflow needs for the Colorado River in Utah and Colorado. An online survey was completed by 128 commercial and non‐commercial boaters, who evaluated a range of flows for whitewater boating. For the Cataract Canyon reach, respondents rated the quality of their recreation experience of specific flows, describing the quality of boating opportunities across the full range of historical streamflows. Ranges for both acceptable and optimum flows were defined, as well as thresholds for unacceptable flows. These ranges were then evaluated against historical hydrologic records to quantify the timing, frequency, and duration of days when defined whitewater flows exist across different year types (i.e. average boatable days). Results indicated that on average, a total of 257 boatable days existed in dry years, and 353 total boatable days occurred in dry‐typical years. In wet and wet‐typical years, 362 and 365 total boatable days respectively, occurred on average. Results of the boatable days' analysis indicated that over the 23‐year period of record, whitewater boating opportunities occurred nearly every day of the year in all but the driest year types. Results from this study provide resource managers with information which can be used in the development of annual operating plans for the Colorado River Basin and help managers understand how changes in flow impact the quality of recreational opportunities. This application demonstrates the value of analysing boatable days on any river where recreation management is a priority. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HYDROPOWER COSTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AND CLIMATE WARMING IN CALIFORNIA'S UPPER YUBA RIVER WATERSHED

Understanding the trade‐offs between water for the environment and water for hydropower in regulated rivers can inform decision making about hydropower system planning, policy and operations, especially with anticipated climate warming–induced changes in runoff. This study used a multireservoir optimisation model to assess the hydropower effects of increasing minimum instream flows (MIFs) and imposing weekly scale down ramp rates (DRRs) in three locations in California's Upper Yuba River (UYR). The UYR is currently used for hydropower generation yet has high potential for freshwater habitat restoration. Trade‐offs between DRRs, MIFs and hydropower generation and revenue are explored with uniform air temperature increases of 0 °C, 2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C to approximate anticipated regional climate warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduced hydropower generation by 7.9% and revenue by 5.5% compared with base case management and a historical climate. This has important implications for licensure of the UYR project and other hydropower projects, where multiple benefits under current and potential future conditions must be balanced. This study provides a methodological approach that can be used by water managers, regulators and stakeholders to better understand inherent trade‐offs in allocating water for multiple beneficial uses in a nonstationary hydroclimate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depositional settings of sand beaches along whitewater rivers

The numbers and sizes of sand beaches suitable for recreation along selected whitewater rivers in the western United States depend on sand concentrations, range of discharge and the size, frequency and type of depositional settings. River‐width expansions downstream from constrictions are the predominant depositional setting for sand beaches in the upper Grand Canyon and along five Wild and Scenic Rivers in Idaho, but not along other rivers. Beaches located upstream from constrictions are rare, in general, except in the Grand Canyon. Beaches found in expansions without constrictions dominate depositional sites along the Yampa and Green Rivers, are fairly common along the rivers in Idaho, but are relatively rare in the Grand Canyon. The magnitude of flow expansion is a reliable predictor of beach size. Beaches located on the inside of curves are uncommon, in general, but can be important recreation sites. The mid‐channel bar setting is the least important from a recreation standpoint because that setting is rare and beaches there are typically small, and emergent only at low flow. The frequency of beaches is highly variable among rivers and the concentration of sand in transport is only partially responsible. Of the rivers studied, the unregulated Yampa River carries the highest concentrations of suspended sand and has among the most beaches (1.2 beaches km^?1). Emergent sand beaches are essentially nonexistent along the Deschutes River and are rare along other Oregon rivers, yet these rivers transport some sand. Sand beaches are fairly common (0.8–1.1 beaches km^?1) along the regulated Colorado River, but are comparatively rare (0.6 beaches km^?1) along the unregulated Middle Fork Salmon River. The suspended sand concentrations in study reaches of these two rivers are similar, and the difference in the frequency of beaches may be largely because the processes that create beach‐deposition settings are less active along the Middle Fork Salmon. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the Thermal Regime of Rivers Influenced by Small and Medium Size Dams in Eastern Canada

Although small and medium‐size dams are prevalent in North America, few studies have described their year‐round impacts on the thermal regime of rivers. The objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of two types of dams (run‐of‐river, storage with shallow reservoirs) on the thermal regime of rivers in eastern Canada. Thermal impacts of dams were assessed (i) for the open water period by evaluating their influence on the annual cycle in daily mean water temperature and residual variability and (ii) for the ice‐covered winter period by evaluating their influence on water temperature duration curves. Overall, results showed that the run‐of‐river dam (with limited storage capacity) did not have a significant effect on the thermal regime of the regulated river. At the two rivers regulated by storage dams with shallow reservoirs (mean depth < 6 m), the annual cycle in daily mean water temperature was significantly modified which led to warmer water temperatures in summer and autumn. From August to October, the monthly mean water temperature at rivers regulated by storage dams was 1.4 to 3.9°C warmer than at their respective reference sites. During the open water period, the two storage dams also reduced water temperature variability at a daily timescale while increased variability was observed in regulated rivers during the winter. Storage dams also had a warming effect during the winter and the winter median water temperature ranged between 1.0 and 2.1°C downstream of the two storage dams whereas water temperature remained stable and close to 0°C in unregulated rivers. The biological implications of the altered thermal regimes at rivers regulated by storage dams are discussed, in particular for salmonids. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River Floods in the Changing Climate—Observations and Projections

River flood damages, worldwide, have increased dynamically in the last few decades, so that it is necessary to interpret this change. River flooding is a complex phenomenon which can be affected by changes coupled to terrestrial, socio-economic and climate systems. The climate track in the observed changes is likely, even if human encroaching into the harm’s way and increase in the damage potential in floodplains can be the dominating factors in many river basins. Increase in intense precipitation has already been observed, with consequences to increasing risk of rain-induced flooding. Projections for the future, based on climate model simulations, indicate increase of flood risks in many areas, globally. Over large areas, a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become much more frequent in the future time horizon. Despite the fact that the degree of uncertainty in model-based projections is considerable and difficult to quantify, the change in design flood frequency has obvious relevance to flood risk management practice. The number of flood-affected people is projected to increase with the amount of warming. For a 4°C warming the number of flood-affected people is over 2.5 times higher than for a 2°C warming. The present contribution addresses the climate track in an integrated way, tackling issues related to multiple factors, change detection, projections, and adaptation to floods.     

Assessment of the Effects of High Summer Water Temperatures on Shovelnose Sturgeon and Potential Implications of Climate Change

Rivers worldwide have experienced changes through habitat modifications and are likely further exacerbated with the onset of climate change. The coupling of these anthropogenic disturbances has reduced the ability of river ecosystems and associated biota to adjust. The aforementioned human‐induced habitat perturbations coupled with high summer river temperatures have been associated with an increased frequency of fish kills. Recently, shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus have experienced numerous events of excessive summer mortality in rivers across the USA. During the summer of 2012, multiple fish kills occurred on the lower Des Moines River. During one of these events, we collected numerous dead or dying shovelnose sturgeon (N = 132) to explore factors causing mortality. Water temperatures were exceedingly high (29–35°C), while dissolved oxygen levels varied between 4 and 10 mg L^?1. Based on population simulation modelling, only ~14% mortality would need to occur to reduce the reproductive potential below sustainable levels, which was likely exceeded. The results of our controlled experiment demonstrate that the high temperature in the Des Moines River was likely the mechanism initiating mortality. Future climate projections indicate that increases in temperature on the Des Moines River are possible; thus, the population may be at risk in the future. Through our microchemistry investigation, immigration from the Upper Mississippi River appears to be common and may be a source population to the Des Moines River. Despite immigration, the influence that these mortality events have on the Upper Mississippi River is unknown. Thus, proactive management efforts are needed to ensure sustainability of this population. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydroclimatic variability across the international Lake of the Woods watershed: Implications for nutrient export and climate sensitivity

Characterizing streamflow and relationships with climate and watershed characteristics is an essential first step in the design of any monitoring program to assess basin response to changes in land use or climate. This is especially true for the international Lake of the Woods watershed, where recurrent algae blooms have been associated with nutrient inputs from the watershed and climate warming. Here, we present a basin-wide hydroclimatic analysis within the sparsely monitored Canadian portion of the basin. Spatial and temporal patterns in climate and runoff were assessed across the two major geo-zones: the Precambrian ‘Shield zone’, dominated by bedrock, forests and lakes, and the poorly drained ‘Agassiz zone’ where ditching and drainage for agriculture have substantially enhanced the hydrologic connectivity. While climate conditions were consistent across the watershed, Agassiz basins were flashy, highly variable, and more seasonal compared with Shield rivers, likely due to the moderating effect of lake storage in the Shield region. Temperatures increased across the basin (1910–2010), and there was more rainfall and runoff during the ice-covered months (Nov-Mar), suggesting a shift toward earlier snowmelt. Marked seasonality and large swings in flow extremes at the Agassiz rivers suggest this region is particularly sensitive to hydroclimatic change and that frequent monitoring is needed to capture important periods of nutrient export like spring runoff and storm events. In contrast, substantial storage within the Shield landscape suggests this zone is more hydrologically ‘resilient’ to climate extremes and that water quality and quantity measurements can be less frequent.     

Determining the effects of dams on subdaily variation in river flows at a whole‐basin scale

River regulation can alter the frequency and magnitude of subdaily flow variations causing major impacts on ecological structure and function. We developed an approach to quantify subdaily flow variation for multiple sites across a large watershed to assess the potential impacts of different dam operations (flood control, run‐of‐river hydropower and peaking hydropower) on natural communities. We used hourly flow data over a 9‐year period from 30 stream gages throughout the Connecticut River basin to calculate four metrics of subdaily flow variation and to compare sites downstream of dams with unregulated sites. Our objectives were to (1) determine the temporal scale of data needed to characterize subdaily variability; (2) compare the frequency of days with high subdaily flow variation downstream of dams and unregulated sites; (3) analyse the magnitude of subdaily variation at all sites and (4) identify individual sites that had subdaily variation significantly higher than unregulated locations. We found that estimates of flow variability based on daily mean flow data were not sufficient to characterize subdaily flow patterns. Alteration of subdaily flows was evident in the number of days natural ranges of variability were exceeded, rather than in the magnitude of subdaily variation, suggesting that all rivers may exhibit highly variable subdaily flows, but altered rivers exhibit this variability more frequently. Peaking hydropower facilities had the most highly altered subdaily flows; however, we observed significantly altered ranges of subdaily variability downstream of some flood‐control and run‐of‐river hydropower dams. Our analysis can be used to identify situations where dam operating procedures could be modified to reduce the level of hydrologic alteration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of Projected Climate Changes on Streamflow and Sediment Transport for Three Snowmelt‐Dominated Rivers in the Interior Pacific Northwest

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to have significant impacts on river systems, particularly on rivers dominated by seasonal snowmelt. In addition to altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow, climate change can affect the energy available to transport sediment, as well as the availability of sediment to be transported. These hydrologic changes are sensitive to local climate, which is largely controlled by topography, but climate models cannot resolve processes at these scales. Here, I investigate impacts of climate change on streamflow and suspended‐sediment transport for three snowmelt‐dominated rivers in the interior Pacific Northwest – the Tucannon River in Washington and the South Fork Coeur d'Alene and Red rivers in Idaho – using downscaled climate simulations from regional climate models (a range of three models plus an ensemble average) to drive a basin‐scale hydrologic model. The results indicate that climate change is likely to amplify the annual cycle of river discharge, producing higher winter discharge (increases in ensemble mean January discharge ranging from 4.1% to 34.4% for the three rivers), an earlier spring snowmelt peak (by approximately one month), and lower summer discharge (decreases in ensemble mean July discharge ranging from 5.2% to 47.2%), relative to a late 20th‐century baseline. The magnitude of the largest simulated flood under the ensemble‐average climate change scenario increases by 0.6–41.6% across the three rivers. Simulated changes in suspended‐sediment transport generally follow the changes in streamflow. These changes in discharge and sediment transport will likely produce significant impacts on the study rivers, including changes in flooding, physical habitat, and river morphology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Site length for biological assessment of boatable rivers

There is increasing international interest by water resource management agencies worldwide in developing the capacity for quantitative bioassessments of boatable rivers. This interest stems from legal mandates requiring assessments, plus growing recognition of the threats to such systems from multiple and co‐varying stressors (e.g. chemical pollutants, physical habitat alterations, altered flow regimes, channel modifications and alien species). The elevated cost and inefficiencies of jurisdictionally‐ and taxonomically‐segregated assessments is widely recognized, as is the desire to obtain comparable data that can be easily shared among political jurisdictions and ecological regions. The objectives, sampling methods, indicators, site‐scale sampling designs and geographic extent of the resources being sampled differ among programmes, thereby limiting such data exchanges. Our objective in this paper is to review major biological assessment design alternatives for boatable rivers, with special attention given to the sample site length from which data are collected. We suggest that sufficient site length determinations should be based on the survey objectives, the relative heterogeneity of the habitat template, and the quality of data necessary for meeting programmatic data quality objectives. Future sampling effort studies should be designed to allow separate samples of several short sub‐sites at many diverse sites to generate multiple data points for each site. Data from those multiple sub‐sites should be analysed using randomization‐based data evaluation methods. We hope that our recommendations will be useful to the maximum number of institutions, including those with limited funds and a purely local focus, as well as those responsible for sampling at continental geographic extents. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于青藏高原冰芯记录的长江源区径流重建

近几十年来长江源区河川径流条件发生了较大变化,研究全球变暖背景下长江源区径流变化特征对于认识气候变化引起的水文效应具有重要的现实意义。利用沱沱河水文站和气象站1960—2019年实测水文气象数据,分析径流演变规律及其与降水、气温、蒸发等气象因素间的关系。采用青藏高原5根冰芯δ¹⁸O记录与冰芯积累量,分析了不同冰芯间δ¹⁸O记录、冰芯积累量之间的关系,以及冰芯记录与沱沱河径流之间的相关性。在此基础上重建沱沱河水文站1900—1960年10 a滑动平均径流系列,并初步分析100多年来沱沱河径流的丰枯变化规律。研究结果表明,沱沱河水文站年径流在2002年前后发生显著增加的趋势,长江源区气温急剧上升导致的冰川和积雪融水增多是长江源区流量急剧增加的重要原因之一。重建沱沱河1900年以来径流系列表明,长江源区经历了多次的丰枯交替变化,径流变化规律与青藏高原3次气候突变时间点基本吻合。研究结果对揭示气候变化条件下长江源区河川径流演变规律及其水文响应提供了参考。     

Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta

The North Saskatchewan River basin is a large watershed in central Alberta that provides water for a range of stakeholders, including large municipalities, agricultural operations, power generation, and resource extraction industries. This study assesses potential future changes in snowpack for the North Saskatchewan River watershed in response to a range of GCM-derived climate warming scenarios representing the periods from 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), and 2070-2099 (2080s). The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) spatial hydrometeorological model is applied to simulate potential changes in the zero degree isotherm, precipitation phase, watershed average maximum spring snow water equivalent (SWE), the dates of maximum and minimum SWE, and snowmelt period for these future climate scenarios. Climate warming is likely to result in an upwards shift in elevation of the zero degree isotherm, with a transition to more precipitation occurring as rain than snow. Although watershed average maximum SWE may not change under future conditions, the timing of spring snowmelt onset is likely to change under the future climate scenarios applied. It is demonstrated that increased air temperatures are expected to result in substantial changes in snowpack processes in the North Saskatchewan River watershed.     

祖厉河河源区径流、泥沙对气候的响应研究

针对黄河上游一级支流祖厉河的河源区河川径流及泥沙变化对气候的响应过程进行分析研究,运用水文统计学方法对30多年实际观测资料进行分析,结果表明:祖厉河上游源区的径流、泥沙对研究区的气候变化敏感。自20世纪80年代以来气温显著升高,蒸发量呈显著增加趋势,且两者变化速率高于黄河上游及全球变化速率,分别为0.75℃/10a和34.8 mm/10a。同时降水呈现减少趋势,河道径流和泥沙受气候变化影响显著减少,自2000年以来,祖厉河上游基本断流,1997年发生径流突变以及降水-径流、径流-泥沙关系的变化。而人类保护生态环境所采取的工程措施有效减少了土壤侵蚀,泥沙的突变时间有所延迟。     

近60年来长江对鄱阳湖倒灌水量的变化特征

鄱阳湖是长江中下游典型的通江湖泊,其出流特征及水位涨落同时受五河及长江来水的双重影响,进而形成较为复杂的江湖水文情势关系。为研究长江对鄱阳湖作用的变化规律,依据鄱阳湖五河以及出湖控制水文站1956—2016年水文数据,探讨长江对鄱阳湖倒灌水量的变化规律。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖五河七口控制站2003—2016年年平均径流量相比1956—2002年有所降低。鄱阳湖倒灌水量、倒灌天数均与汉口站来水和鄱阳湖入湖水量之差呈较好的正相关关系。2003年后,三峡水库的蓄水或放水在一定程度上影响了江湖作用的季节变化和鄱阳湖流域的旱涝机遇,一定程度上减少了长江对鄱阳湖的倒灌频次。通过对倒灌水量和倒灌天数的分析可知,在1960年代、1980年代和21世纪初,长江上中游来水对鄱阳湖的作用相对强烈;而在1970年代、1990年代和2010年以后,长江上中游来水对鄱阳湖作用较弱。研究成果对于认识变化条件下长江与鄱阳湖江湖关系变化规律具有重要意义。     

Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed

With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most of the country, Jordan is considered one of the least water-endowed regions in the world. Water scarcity in Jordan is exacerbated by growing demands driven by population and industrial growth and rising living standards. Major urban and industrial centers in Jordan including the Capital Amman are concentrated in the northern highlands, mostly contained within the boundaries of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW is the third most productive basin in the greater Jordan River System. King Talal Dam was built a few kilometers upstream of the Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input mostly for the benefit of agricultural activities in the Jordan Valley. Concerns regarding the sensitivity of the ZRW to potential climate change have prompted the authors to carry out the current study. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change scenarios. Utilizing the BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing climate conditions with ±20% change in rainfall, and 1°C, 2°C and 3.5°C increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The HSPF model was calibrated for the ZRW using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. The model was validated against an independent data record extending from 1995 through 2002. Calibration and verification results were assessed based on linear regression fitting of monthly and daily flows. Monthly calibration and verifications produced good fit with regression coefficient r values equal to 0.928 and 0.923, respectively. Assessment based on daily records show much more modest r value of 0.785. The study shows that climate warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume.     

ESTIMATING THERMAL REGIMES OF BULL TROUT AND ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE WARMING ON CRITICAL HABITATS

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow‐routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22‐m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13°C and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14°C. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASSESSING THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF HYDROPOWER REGULATION ON THE FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF A LARGE ATLANTIC SALMON RIVER SYSTEM

We assessed the influence of hydropower on the flow characteristics of the river Tay, one of the UK's most heavily regulated catchments and important Atlantic salmon fisheries. Hydropower developments in the mid‐20th century preceded flow data collection, resulting in knowledge gaps over how far regulated flows deviate from natural and how ecosystem functioning might have been impacted. We used 29 unregulated catchments in and around the Tay to assess the relationships between hydroclimatic conditions, landscape structure and the overall flow regime, as well as the annual, monthly and daily flow metrics. This allowed the identification of flow characteristics by using an integrated suite of regression approaches (nonlinear, MLR and random forests) to assess likely impacts at 11 regulated sites. The results showed that the impacts of regulation are highly variable in both space and time. Headwater sub‐catchments are most heavily affected, and water imports or exports as part of hydropower schemes can increase or decrease annual runoff by up to 50%, respectively. On a monthly basis, regulation primarily increased summer low flows; winter high flows increased in catchments affected by water imports and reduced where there was a net water export. At larger catchment scales, impacts were relatively small, as unregulated tributaries re‐naturalize the flows and the effects of intra‐basin transfers balance. Non‐stationarity in climate and water use in the catchment dictates that adaptive management of flows may be necessary to protect ecosystems services. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Variability Influences on Hydrological Responses of a Large Himalayan Basin

The hydrological cycle, a fundamental component of climate is likely to be altered in important ways due to climate change. In this study, the historical daily runoff has been simulated for the Chenab River basin up to Salal gauging site using a simple conceptual snowmelt model (SNOWMOD). The model has been used to study the impact of plausible hypothetical scenarios of temperature and rainfall on the melt characteristics and daily runoff of the Chenab River basin. The average value of increase in snowmelt runoff for T + 1°C, T + 2°C and T + 3°C scenarios are obtained to be 10, 28 and 43%, respectively. Whereas, the average value of increase in total streamflow runoff for T + 1°C, T + 2°C and T + 3°C are obtained to be 7, 19 and 28%, respectively. Changes in rainfall by −10 and + 10% vary the average annual snowmelt runoff over the T + 2°C scenario by −1% and + 1% only. The result shows that melt is much more sensitive to increase in temperature than to rainfall.     

Tributary confluences are dynamic thermal refuges for a juvenile salmonid in a warming river network

As rivers warm, cold‐water fish species may alleviate thermal stress by moving into localized thermal refuges such as cold‐water plumes created by cool tributary inflows. We quantified use of two tributary confluence plumes by juvenile steelhead, Oncorhynchus mykiss, throughout the summer, including how trout positioned themselves in relation to temperature within confluence plumes. At two confluences, Cedar and Elder creeks, along the South Fork Eel River, California, USA, we monitored temperatures using in situ logger grids throughout summer 2016. Fish were counted within confluences via snorkel surveys five times a day on 5 days at each site. We found diel and seasonal dependence on confluence use by steelhead, especially at the Cedar Creek confluence, where mainstem temperatures exceeded 28°C. At this site, fish moved into the confluence on the warmest days and warmest times of the day. Fish observed within the Cedar Creek confluence plume were most common in locations between 20–22°C, rather than the coldest locations (14.5°C). At Elder Creek, where mainstem temperatures remained below 24°C, there was little relationship between mainstem temperature and steelhead presence in the confluence plume. At both sites, steelhead distribution within plumes was influenced by spatial variation of temperature and mean temperature in surveyed grid cells. Our results show that cool tributaries flowing into warmer mainstem reaches (over 24°C) likely create important thermal refuges for juvenile steelhead. As mainstem rivers warm with climate change, cool‐water tributary inputs may become more important for sustaining cold‐water salmonids near the southern end of their range.