Energy prices,multiple structural breaks,and efficient market hypothesis

This paper investigates the efficient market hypothesis using total energy price and four kinds of various disaggregated energy prices – coal, oil, gas, and electricity – for OECD countries over the period 1978–2006. We employ a highly flexible panel data stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre JL, Del Barrio-Castro T, Lopez-Bazo E. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. J Econometrics 2005;8:159–75], which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Overwhelming evidence in favor of the broken stationarity hypothesis is found, implying that energy prices are not characterized by an efficient market. Thus, it shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among energy prices. The estimated breaks are meaningful and coincide with the most critical events which affected the energy prices.     

Renewable energy sources in the Mexican electricity sector

This paper analyzes the role of renewable energy sources (RES) in the Mexican electricity sector in the context of the proposed renewable energy bill currently under consideration in the Mexican Congress. This paper was divided into three parts. The first part presents a chronology of institutional background related to the RES. This is followed by an analysis of the coordination and management system of the Mexican electricity sector, which can facilitate the promotion and integration of the RES without significant structural changes. Finally, the pros and cons of the renewable energy bill are analyzed in order to demonstrate the need for greater coherence between the bill and the coordination system of the sector. It is concluded that when inconsistency is eliminated, RES would strongly be promoted in Mexico.     

The effectiveness of different policy regimes for promoting wind power: Experiences from the states

Governments at the state (and to a lesser extent, local) level in the United States have adopted an array of policies to promote wind and other types of “green” energy, including solar, geothermal, low-impact hydropower, and certain forms of biomass. However, because of different regulatory environments, energy resource endowments, political interests, and other factors, there is considerable variation among the states in their green power policies. This paper analyzes the contribution to wind power development of several state-level policies (renewable portfolio standards (RPS), fuel generation disclosure rules, mandatory green power options, and public benefits funds), along with retail choice (RET) facilitated by electricity restructuring. The empirical results support existing anecdotal and case studies in finding a positive relationship between RPS and wind power development. We also found that requiring electricity suppliers to provide green power options to customers is positively related to development of wind energy, while there is a negative relationship between wind energy development and RET (i.e., allowing retail customers to choose their electricity source).     

解决我国“十一五”能源供需矛盾的政策措施

本文对第八个五年计划以来能源发展规划与能源政策的目标与重点进行了简要的回顾与评价,着重分析了调整能源供需关系所采取的一系列政策、措施和环境与资源因素对能源政策的影响。对“十一五”能源发展战略的目标与任务进行了描述,并与“十五”进行了比较,分析了“十一五”期间需要解决的主要矛盾与问题,根据我国“十一五”经济与社会发展规划,提出了解决我国能源供需矛盾的思路与政策措施。     

我国“三驾马车”与电力需求关系研究

基于投入产出理论,从整个社会需求与生产的联系入手,研究“三驾马车”与电力需求之间的关系,为剖析电力与经济的关系提供方法。首先构建了“三驾马车”拉动电力需求的数学模型,然后利用我国已公布的5张竞争型投入产出表编制了5张非竞争型投入产出表,在此基础上测算了我国“三驾马车”对电力需求的拉动作用及其变化情况。研究表明：在我国,“三驾马车”中的消费对电力需求的拉动作用最大,其次是投资,出口的拉动作用最小,2000年以来,消费的拉动作用在逐年下降,投资和出口的拉动作用在逐年上升     

德国可再生能源发电政策法规体系及其启示

德国具有可再生能源发电方面长期处于世界领先地位的优势,并形成了较为成熟的政策法规体系。分析了德国在促进可再生能源发电方面的政策法规体系及其主要内容以及对我国发展可再生能源发电的启示     

Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries

This paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure, first developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [2005, Econometrics Journal 8, 159–175], with panel VARs that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re-investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita (LEC) and real GDP per capita (LRY) in 22 developed and 18 developing countries. When multiple breaks in the series are taken into account, there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for LEC and LRY in both groups. The energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both LEC and LRY in all sample countries. Furthermore, our panel VARs attest to bidirectional causality between LEC and LRY in developed countries, but there is uni-directional causality from LRY to LEC in developing countries. Finally, from the orthogonalized impulse response functions, all of the variables in the panel VARs have a positive effect on each other, but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries. Some important policy implications do emerge.     

我国经济发展对电耗的影响及电力的需求浅析

能/电耗的变化与经济发展所处的时期有关。针对我国经济快速发展,从电力角度分析我国工业化进程需经历的三个时期:1949～1979年高度工业重型化时期(工业化初期);1980～2000年高度工业轻型化时期(工业化中期);2001～202X年工业重轻基本协调时期(工业化后期)。由于各时期的特点不同,其能耗电耗也不同。现阶段只有能耗下降超过3%时,电耗才会下降。我国完成工业化进程对电力的需求为:人均用电量达到4500kWh左右,人均发电装机容量达到1kW左右;第二产业用电比重在60%左右,第三产业用电比重高于17%,居民生活用电比重20%左右。     

中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析

综合考虑未来经济发展和主要行业产品产量,对比国内外分行业能源强度和电力强度的变化,采用\"自下而上\"的方法构建了中国中长期能源、电力需求及碳排放情景分析模型。分3种情景对2015、2020、2030年的全国能源、电力需求与结构以及碳排放进行了分析,测算了非化石能源消费比例和碳排放强度。结果表明,2020年我国一次能源需求50亿t标准煤左右,全社会用电量7.7×1012kW.h左右;3种经济发展情景下,均能实现2020年碳排放量比2005年下降40%～45%的目标;在非化石能源开发达到规划上限的条件下,能够实现非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重15%的目标。     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

电力工业的储能时代

风电、太阳能发电等新能源的开发利用正迅速发展,由于新能源发电大都具有随机性、间歇性,因而将使电力工业进入储能时代。最近30年来,世界能源领域有3个变化:一是环境问题由区域性问题变成全球性问题;二是因化石能源顶峰论和枯竭论导致化石能源恐慌;三是化石能源价格暴涨。由此把全球能源利用推向第三次能源大转换,用新能源发电替代化石能源发电,并催生了智能电网。电力工业在100多年的历史中,前后经历了舞伴时代、电力需求侧管理时代,现在为了发展新能源和智能电网,电力工业将进入储能时代。中国在最近20年内,无论是在需求侧管理方面还是在需求响应方面的工作都优于工业发达国家,中国电力工业已进入了电力需求侧管理时代。大容量储能是新能源开发的"瓶颈",是智能电网的"瓶颈",要想加快新能源和智能电网的开发,就要把大容量储能放在战略位置上,抓好大容量储能技术的突破。现在技术比较成熟的储能设施是抽水蓄能电站,但是投资大、能量转换损耗大,不可能全靠它来解决大容量储能问题。主要问题还是技术不成熟和政策问题,应加大对大容量储能技术的研究开发力度,在新能源发电规划和智能电网规划中要有相应的大容量储能规划,同时要尽快理顺电价。     

解决江西电煤供需不平衡的对策分析

从江西省资源概况出发,基于2004--2008年江西统计年鉴历史数据,对全省历年电煤产运和电力发展进行了因素分析,对因电煤发展不平衡引发的能源供应紧张以及其对经济发展带来的影响进行了具体分析,提出了建立省级煤炭储备基地的设想。围绕储备基地建设设想,对项目建设进行了简单的效益分析,详细阐述了建设的必要性、可行性以及建立储备基地的措施建议和现实而长远的意义。     

Household electricity demand forecast and energy savings potential for Vientiane,Lao PDR

This paper uses the survey data on household electricity demand from five districts of Vientiane, Lao PDR, for the demand projection up to 2030 using the end-use model. The scenario analysis is used to verify the potential of an energy-saving program by alternating selected appliances with more energy-efficient ones following the labelling standard of Thailand. The demographic structure of electrified households and the energy efficiency of electric appliances are considered as the dominant factors affecting electricity demand. Under the base-case scenario, the total electricity demand of Vientiane increased from 593?GWh in 2013 to 965?GWh in 2030. In the energy efficiency scenario, it is revealed that the appliance standard enhancement program can save total electricity demand in 2030 by 147?GWh (?15.2%), where 117?GWh (?12.1%) of which is contributed by the air conditioner and 30?GWh (?3.1%) by the lighting equipment.     

市场环境下多主体参与的主动配电网双层优化配置

电力市场化改革孕育了多元市场主体,为了兼顾多元市场主体利益需求,在保障系统安全性前提下实现社会总效益最大化,提出市场环境下多主体参与的主动配电网双层优化配置模型。上层模型考虑以分布式电源投资商、配电公司和储能运营商为主的能源及服务商的经济效益,并计及电网公司和第三方公司为不同投资主体的储能运行策略,引入系统综合安全性指标保障系统故障下的孤岛运行能力;下层模型考虑终端用户侧经济效益,积极响应需求管理以保证用户满意度最高。采用改进粒子群算法对双层模型进行求解,并利用IEEE33节点系统验证了该模型在保证系统安全性的同时能有效兼顾多主体利益。