Falling hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction in Quebec hospitals

OBJECTIVE: To present in-hospital mortality trends for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Observational study using the Quebec administrative hospital database, which records all hospitalizations for AMI, for the period 1986 to 1996. RESULTS: From 1986 to 1996, the case fatality rate for AMI decreased from 18.4% to 12.7% despite an increase in the total number of admissions, due to an ageing population. Men and women have had similar yearly mortality reductions--7.6% versus 7.4%, respectively--although the absolute case fatality rate remains significantly higher for women. The mortality reduction for men was constant over the decade, while the decline for women was more pronounced over the last five years. Improving case fatality rates were also observed in the elderly and again were most evident from 1991 to 1996. CONCLUSIONS: These data show a sharp decline in case fatality rates for AMI patients treated in Quebec hospitals from 1986 to 1996, suggesting that treatment advances observed in clinical trials are being applied at a population level. While improved survival has been observed in all patient groups, the data suggest that the part of the decline in mortality may be due to increased penetration of proven treatment strategies in women and the elderly.     

Subchondral acute inflammation in severe arthritis: a sterile osteomyelitis?

To estimate changes in the age- and gender-specific prevalence of Paget's disease in Britain, we performed a radiographic survey of the disorder in 10 British centers, using sampling and radiographic methods identical to a study performed in 1974. In each center, a sample of abdominal radiographs of people aged 55 years and over was taken from stored films within the radiology department of the principal general hospital. The radiographs were identified by screening radiographic records over the period 1993-1995. Any abdominal radiograph in a subject aged 55 years and over which included the entire pelvis, sacrum, femoral heads, and all lumbar vertebrae was studied. The radiographs were evaluated by a trained observer and the consultant radiologist who participated in the original 1974 survey. Nine thousand eight hundred and twenty-eight radiographs (4625 men, 5203 women) were assessed in the 10 towns. The overall age/gender standardized prevalence rate was 2%, with a male/female ratio of 1.6. Prevalence increased steeply with age among men and women, rising to 6.9% of men and 5.8% of women aged 85 years and over. The prevalence of Paget's disease in the 10 towns in 1994 was only 40% of that observed during the 1974 study. The decline in prevalence was apparent in all 10 centers, but was most marked in those with high rates in the original study. This survey of Paget's disease in 10 British towns suggests a prevalence of 2.5% among men and 1.6% among women aged 55 years and over. Age-adjusted prevalence rates declined steeply between 1974 and 1994. These declines suggest an environmental contribution to the etiology of this disorder that requires further investigation.     

Cardiovascular mortality of Turkish nationals residing in West Germany

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that cardiovascular mortality of Turkish nationals residing in West Germany (mainly former "guest workers" and their families) has been increasing over the past 15 years. Reasons would be their minority status and migration-related lifestyle changes. METHODS: Using registry data for the period 1981-1994, we calculated mortality rates from cardiovascular disease (CVD) (international classification of diseases (ICD) 390-459), ischemic heart disease (IHD) (ICD 410-414) and cerebrovascular disease (CVA) (ICD 430-438) of Turkish nationals aged 25-64 years and residing in West Germany, numbering 730,000 in 1981 and 941,000 in 1994. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 1994, age-adjusted CVD mortality rates (per 100,000) decline from 103 to 85 (-18%) in Turkish men and from 227 to 149 (-34%) in West German men. IHD mortality declines from 64 to 53 (-16%) in Turkish men and from 138 to 82 (-41%) in German men. CVD mortality of Turkish women remains around 45 while that of West German women declines from 84 to 57 (-33%). CONCLUSIONS: Our hypothesis was not confirmed. Turkish residents experience a stable or decreasing CVD and overall mortality which is lower than that of West Germans. Selective return to Turkey of individuals manifestly ill with CVD is improbable. Neither minority status nor a postulated unfavorable genetic disposition currently have a discernible effect on CVD mortality rates of Turkish residents. Future research should relate individual migration history, socio-economic status, and risk factor levels to mortality experience.     

Myocardial infarction in Girona, Spain: attack rate, mortality rate and 28-day case fatality in 1988. Regicor Study Group

This study was conducted to establish the attack rate, mortality rate and 28-day case-fatality rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) occurring in Girona, Spain, between October 1987 and September 1988. The study was carried out using a population register of AMI, and took place in one central hospital, and eight county hospitals in Girona (in the autonomous community of Catalonia, northeast Spain). Subjects comprised 222 fatal cases selected from 4069 death certificates, and 210 non-fatal cases from hospital records, among subjects aged between 25 and 74 years (reference population 263,778). The age standardized attack rate was 105.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in the age group 35-64 (193.6 in men and 17.6 in women). The age standardized mortality rate was 36.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in the age group 35-64 (63.1 among men and 9.9 among women). The age standardized 28-day case-fatality was 34.6% in men and 50.1% in women in this same age group. Attack and mortality rates of AMI in a region of Spain are presented for the first time. These rates are lower than in other developed countries, nevertheless the 28-day case-fatality is similar to that of these countries.     

Temporal changes in the care and outcomes of elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction, 1987 through 1990

OBJECTIVE: To investigate changes between 1987 and 1990 in the care and outcomes associated with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in elderly patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using a longitudinal database created from Medicare administrative files. PATIENTS: Cohorts comprising a total of 856,847 AMI patients insured by Medicare between 1987 and 1990. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual rates of mortality at 30 days and 1 year following AMI, and the use of coronary angiography, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty during the first 90 days after a new AMI. RESULTS: Between 1987 and 1990, mortality rates decreased 10% overall from 26% to 23% at 30 days (P < .001) and from 40% to 36% at 1 year following AMI (P < .001). Declines in mortality and adjusted risks of 1-year mortality were similar in men and women and in blacks and whites, but mortality declines were more evident in those younger than 85 years. Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly AMI patients having angiography within the first 90 days after their index admission increased from 24% to 33% (P < .001); proportions increased for both genders and all races. The proportion of patients undergoing revascularization procedures increased from 13% to 21%; while rates of bypass surgery increased from 8% to 11%, rates of angioplasty doubled from 5% to 10% (all P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Between 1987 and 1990, survival of elderly patients following AMI improved significantly. While changes in patient treatment may be responsible, the increased use of thrombolytic therapy appears to be only a partial explanation. Also, while the use of coronary angiography and revascularization procedures increased dramatically, the degree to which it caused the improvement in survival could not be determined.     

Comparison of mortality from acute myocardial infarction between 1979 and 1992 in a geographically defined stable population

This study documents mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI), in hospital and at 1 year, for each of 3 selected 1-year periods in a stable community over a 13-year period beginning in 1979 and continuing into the thrombolytic era, to detect any changes occurring in conjunction with the introduction of new therapies. Every patient with AMI occurring in a geographically defined stable community (Hamilton, Ontario, Canada) in 3 1-year periods (1979 to 1980 [n = 816], 1986 to 1987 [n = 816], and 1991 to 1992 [n = 831]) was identified and clinically characterized by standardized criteria. Subsequent in-hospital and 1-year survival were ascertained prospectively. The 3 cohorts were similar in prognostic factors. Mean age was progressively greater over the study period from 63 years in 1979 to 1980, to 67 years in 1991 to 1992 (p = 0.02). There was no change in in-hospital mortality rates from 1979 to 1980 (17%) and 1986 to 1987 (16%). However, from 1986 to 1987 and 1991 to 1992, in-hospital mortality decreased from 16% to 9% (p < 0.001) and 1-year mortality decreased from 26% to 19% (p < 0.001). For patients who survived the hospital phase of AMI, 1-year mortality did not change and was between 11% and 12% in each of the 3 study periods. From 1986 to 1987 and 1991 to 1992, there was an increase in the use of thrombolytic therapy from 5% to 44% of patients. The acute use of aspirin increased from 30% to 88% and the acute use of beta blockers increased from 19% to 48% of patients. The observed increase in use of these agents could account for half of the actual mortality reduction observed. This prospective population-based survey demonstrates improved in-hospital survival after AMI associated with increased use of established effective therapies between 1987 and 1992. The 1-year mortality of hospital survivors of AMI was unchanged throughout the period of study, remaining at 11% to 12%.     

Opposing national stroke mortality trends in Poland and for African Americans and whites in the United States, 1968 to 1994

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The United States (US) has experienced declines in stroke mortality in contrast to the increases reported for Poland. As part of the Poland and US Agreement on Cardiovascular and Cardiopulmonary Research, stroke mortality trends in Polish and US subpopulations were compared in the context of cross-population differences in competing causes of death and determinants of stroke. METHODS: Age-adjusted annual stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-CVD, and all-cause mortality rates were determined for men and women aged 35 to 64 and 65 to 74 years from 1968 to 1994 for African Americans and US whites and in Poland. Mean annual percent changes of mortality rates were estimated during 1968 to 1980 and 1981 to 1994 with the use of piecewise log-linear regression. RESULTS: US stroke mortality rates declined 3.7% to 4.8% annually during 1968 to 1980 and 2.0% to 3.1% during 1981 to 1994, with similar declines in each ethnic, gender, and age group. Polish rates increased 3.3% to 5.5% annually for all age-gender groups in Poland during 1968 to 1980. Polish men aged 35 to 64 experienced increasing rates during 1981 to 1994 (1.6% annually), while Polish women and older men experienced slight declines or little change. Only Polish men aged 35 to 64 years exhibited increases in stroke, CVD, and non-CVD mortality rates during both time intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Poland and the US experienced opposing stroke mortality rate trends between 1968 and 1994. These national and ethnic trends occurring in just one generation suggest major effects of lifestyle, socioenvironmental, and/or medical care determinants.     

Decrease in calcitonin-containing cells in truncus arteriosus

Parkinson's disease mortality was analyzed in Italy for the period from 1951 through 1987. The adjusted mortality was 4.27 and 2.77/100,000 population, respectively, for men and women. Adjusted rates increased in both sexes (63% increase in men and 80% in women in 1983 through 1987 vs 1951 through 1952). Age-specific mortality increased in subjects aged over 75 years and decreased in those under 64 years. The analysis by birth cohorts demonstrated higher rates in the cohorts born between 1890 and 1910 than in those born before and after that period. Even if these changes in Parkinson's disease mortality might reflect better case ascertainment and the increase of life expectancy of patients with Parkinson's disease, there is some evidence that the temporal variation is associated with the changing experiences of different birth cohorts.     

Age-related trends in short- and long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction: a 20-year population-based perspective (1975-1995)

This study examines age-related differences and temporal trends in hospital and long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) over a 2-decade-long (1975 to 1995) experience. A total of 8,070 patients with validated AMI hospitalized in all acute care hospitals in the Worcester, Massachusetts, metropolitan area (1990 census population 437,000) were studied over 10 one-year periods between 1975 and 1995. This population included 1,326 patients aged <55 years (16.4%), 1,768 patients aged 55 to 64 years (21.9%), 2,325 patients aged 65 to 74 years (28.8%), 1,880 patients aged 75 to 84 years (23.3%), and 771 patients aged > or = 85 years (9.6%). Compared with patients <55 years, patients 55 to 64 years were 2.2 times more likely to die during hospitalization for AMI, whereas patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and > or = 85 years were at 4.2, 7.8, and 10.2 times greater risk of dying, respectively. Similar age disparities in the risk of dying were seen when controlling for additional prognostic factors. Despite the adverse impact of increasing age on hospital survival after AMI, declining in-hospital death rates were seen in each of the age groups under study, with declining magnitude of these trends with advancing age. Among discharged hospital patients, increasing age was related to a significantly poorer long-term prognosis. Trends toward improving long-term prognosis were seen in patients discharged in the mid-1990s compared with those discharged in the mid- to late 1970s for patients aged <85 years. The present results demonstrate the marked impact of advancing age on survival after AMI. Despite the adverse impact of age on prognosis, encouraging trends in prognosis were observed in all age groups, although to a lesser extent in the oldest elderly patients. These findings emphasize the low death rates in middle-aged patients with AMI and the need for targeted secondary prevention efforts in elderly patients with AMI.     

Clinical features, molecular genetics, and pathophysiology of dominant optic atrophy

CONTEXT: Russian life expectancy has fallen sharply in the 1990s, but the impact of the major causes of death on that decline has not been measured. OBJECTIVE: To assess the contribution of selected causes of death to the dramatic decline in life expectancy in Russia in the years following the breakup of the Soviet Union. DESIGN: Mortality and natality data from the vital statistics systems of Russia and the United States. SETTING: Russia, 1990-1994. POPULATION: Entire population of Russia. MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLES: Mortality rates, life expectancy, and contribution to change in life expectancy. METHODS: Application of standard life-table methods to calculate life expectancy by year, and a partitioning method to assess the contribution of specific causes of death and age groups to the overall decline in life expectancy. United States data presented for comparative purposes. RESULTS: Age-adjusted mortality in Russia rose by almost 33% between 1990 and 1994. During that period, life expectancy for Russian men and women declined dramatically from 63.8 and 74.4 years to 57.7 and 71.2 years, respectively, while in the United States, life expectancy increased for both men and women from 71.8 and 78.8 years to 72.4 and 79.0 years, respectively. More than 75% of the decline in life expectancy was due to increased mortality rates for ages 25 to 64 years. Overall, cardiovascular diseases (heart disease and stroke) and injuries accounted for 65% of the decline in life expectancy while infectious diseases, including pneumonia and influenza, accounted for 5.8%, chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis for 2.4%, other alcohol-related causes for 9.6%, and cancer for 0.7%. Increases in cardiovascular mortality accounted for 41.6% of the decline in life expectancy for women and 33.4% for men, while increases in mortality from injuries (eg, falls, occupational injuries, motor vehicle crashes, suicides, and homicides) accounted for 32.8% of the decline in life expectancy for men and 21.8% for women. CONCLUSION: The striking rise in Russian mortality is beyond the peacetime experience of industrialized countries, with a 5-year decline in life expectancy in 4 years' time. Many factors appear to be operating simultaneously, including economic and social instability, high rates of tobacco and alcohol consumption, poor nutrition, depression, and deterioration of the health care system. Problems in data quality and reporting appear unable to account for these findings. These results clearly demonstrate that major declines in health and life expectancy can take place rapidly.     

Risk factors for cardiorespiratory and all cause mortality in men and women in urban Scotland: 15 year follow up

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe the relationship between risk factors, risk behaviours, symptoms and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in an urban area with high levels of socioeconomic deprivation. A cohort study of 15,411 men and women aged 45-64, comprising 80% of the general population of Paisley and Renfrew, Scotland. OUTCOMES: Mortality after 15 years from coronary heart disease(ICD 410-4), stroke(ICD 430-8), respiratory disease(ICD 460-519) and all causes. MAIN RESULTS: Mortality rates from all causes were 19% in men aged 45-49, 31% in men aged 50-54, 42% in men aged 55-59 and 57% in men aged 60-64. The rates are considerably higher than those reported in previous UK prospective studies. For women the rates were 12%, 18%, 25% and 38% respectively. In general men and women showed similar relationships between risk factor levels and mortality rates. People in manual occupations had higher mortality rates. Raised levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were associated with increased coronary, stroke and all cause mortality rates. Plasma cholesterol had no such association with all cause mortality rates. High and low levels of body mass index were associated with higher mortality rates than intermediate levels. A relationship between short stature and increased mortality rates was observed in men and women. FEV1 expressed as a percentage of the expected value showed the strongest relationship with mortality rates, particularly for respiratory disease, but also for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke and all causes. CONCLUSIONS: A similar pattern of relationship between risk factor levels and mortality rates exists in men and women in Renfrew and Paisley. Respiratory impairment as measured by FEV1% predicted appears to be the most likely explanation of the observed high all cause mortality rates in this population.     

Average life expectancy in Switzerland--historic and international background and thoughts on future development

Age-specific mortality rates are a sensitive measure for the conditions of life in a population. Life tables--in Switzerland calculated approximately all ten years since 1876/80--indicate for any age and any observation period the mean life expectancy as well as the probabilities of death and survival, respectively. In the past centuries survival curves developed more and more a rectangular shape, but mortality rates didn't decrease uniformly in all age groups: until the first part of the twentieth century, increases in mean life expectancy were predominantly due to a rapid decline of infant and children's mortality; since the 1930s decreasing adults' mortality gained more importance, and not until the 1960s lower death rates in the population aged over 60 became a major component of prolonging the mean span of life. The nowadays favourable mortality situation of Switzerland within Europe started to emerge in the 1950s, predominantly due to declining mortality rates in the uppermost age groups. For the decades to come, experts predict a further substantial increase of mean life expectancy, in spite of actually rather unfavourable trends in the mortality rates of young adults. Consequently, the number of those aged over 65 and particularly those over 80 years will considerably increase till 2020, even if the scenarios of 1995 would prove to be too optimistic.     

Do changes in cardiovascular risk factors explain the increasing socioeconomic difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent to which changes in blood pressure, smoking, and serum cholesterol concentration explain the observed increase in socioeconomic differences in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in Finland during the past 20 years. DESIGN: Predicted changes in mortality from IHD were calculated using logistic regression models with the risk factor levels assessed by cross sectional population surveys conducted in 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987. The subjects included white collar and blue collar workers and farmers. The predicted changes were compared with the observed mortality changes in the same socioeconomic groups in the total population of the same geographical area. SETTING: North Karelia and Kuopio provinces, eastern Finland. PARTICIPANTS: 16,741 men and 16,389 women aged 30-59 randomly drawn from the population registers of the study areas. Mortality data were obtained from the total population in the same areas. MAIN RESULTS: In men, the changes in diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking predicted a 28% decline in the mortality from IHD among white collar workers, a 30% decline among blue collar workers, and a 33% decline in farmers. Observed declines in the same socioeconomic groups were 61%, 40%, and 37%, respectively. In women, the predicted decline was 41% among white collar workers, 35% among blue collar workers, and 39% among farmers. The respective observed declines were 57%, 43%, and 20%. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half of the decline in IHD mortality among white collar men was explained by the risk factor changes, while they explained 75% of the decline among blue collar men and 89% of the decline among male farmers. Changes in risk factors did not explain the increasing difference in IHD mortality between the socioeconomic groups, especially among men.     

Transgenic insertional mutagenesis. Applications to inner-ear genetics

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Despite significant declines since the late 1960s, coronary mortality remains the leading cause of death for African Americans. African Americans in the US South suffer higher rates of cardiovascular disease than African Americans in other regions; yet the mortality experiences of rural-dwelling African Americans, most of whom live in the South, have not been described in detail. This study examined urban-rural differentials in coronary mortality trends among African Americans for the period 1968-86. SETTING: The United States South, comprising 16 states and the District of Columbia. STUDY POPULATION: African American men and women aged 35-74 years. DESIGN: Analysis of urban-rural differentials in temporal trends in coronary mortality for a 19 year study period. All counties in the US South were grouped into five categories: greater metropolitan, lesser metropolitan, adjacent to metropolitan, semirural, and isolated rural. Annual age adjusted mortality rates were calculated for each urban status group. In 1968, observed excesses in coronary mortality were 29% for men and 45% for women, compared with isolated rural areas. Metropolitan areas experienced greater declines in mortality than rural areas, so by 1986 the urban-rural differentials in coronary mortality were 3% for men and 11% for women. CONCLUSIONS: Harsh living conditions in rural areas of the South precluded important coronary risk factors and contributed to lower mortality rates compared with urban areas during the 1960s. The dramatic transformation from an agriculturally based economy to manufacturing and services employment over the course of the study period contributed to improved living conditions which promoted coronary mortality declines in all areas of the South; however, the most favourable economic and mortality trends occurred in metropolitan areas.     

Long term relative survival after surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in western Australia: population based study

OBJECTIVE: To determine the long term relative survival of all patients who had surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: Western Australia. SUBJECTS: All patients who had had surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Morbidity and mortality data of patients admitted and surgically treated for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. Elective, ruptured, and acute non-ruptured cases were analysed separately. Independent analyses for sex and patients aged 80 years or more were also undertaken. Postoperative (>30 days) relative survival was assessed against age and sex matched controls. RESULTS: Overall, 1475 (1257 men, 218 women) cases were identified. The crude five year survival after elective surgery, including deaths within 30 days of surgery, was 79% for both men and women. When compared with a matched population the five year relative survival after elective surgery was 94.9% (95% confidence interval 89.9% to 99.9%) for men but only 88.0% (76.3% to 99.7%) for women. The five year relative survival of those aged 80 years and over was good: 116.6% (89.1% to 144.0%) compared with 92.4% (87.7% to 97.0%) for those under 80 years of age (men and women combined). Cardiovascular disease caused 57.8% of the 341 deaths after 30 days. CONCLUSION: In a condition such as abdominal aortic aneurysm, which occurs in elderly patients, relative survival is more clinically meaningful than crude survival. The five year relative survival in cases of elective and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was better in men than in women. This is probably because of greater comorbidity in women with abdominal aortic aneurysm and this deserves more attention in the future. The long term survival outcome in octogenarians supports surgery in selected cases.     

Targeted cytotoxic analog of luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone AN-207 inhibits the growth of PC-82 human prostate cancer in nude mice

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of gender differences among older adults hospitalized for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on subsequent health outcomes. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Longitudinal Study on Aging. Data from baseline interviews (1984) and three biennial (1986, 1988, and 1990) re-interviews were linked to Medicare hospitalization and National Death Index records for 1984-1991. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 6071 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years or older at baseline. METHODS: Pooled and stratified multivariable models were used to examine gender differences in the independent effects of being hospitalized for an AMI on all-cause mortality, the risk and volume of subsequent hospitalization, and increases in the number of functional limitations. Two comparison groups were used. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-seven AMI cases (6%; 172 women and 185 men) were compared with 3976 hospitalized controls and 1738 nonhospitalized controls. The risk of all-cause mortality for AMI cases was greater than that for either hospitalized controls or nonhospitalized controls (referent), and this increased risk was significantly (P < .001) stronger for women (adjusted hazards ratio (AHR) = 14.24, 95%CI = 10.99, 18.46) than for men (AHR = 9.91, 95%CI = 7.75, 12.67). Overall, AMI cases were also more likely to be hospitalized subsequently than the hospitalized controls (referent; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.47, 95%CI = 1.17, 1.85), although in the stratified analysis this association held for men (AOR = 1.73, 95%CI = 1.25, 2.41) but not for women (AOR = 1.25, 95%CI = .90, 1.73). Among those subsequently hospitalized, both women and men AMI cases consumed more hospital resources than the hospitalized controls, and there were gender differences suggesting that the effects on total charges and length of stay were greater for women than for men with AMI. Finally, although the AMI cases had greater adjusted mean increases in the number of instrumental activities of daily living limitations and lower body limitations than the nonhospitalized controls, they were no worse off than the hospitalized controls, and there were no gender differences in those effects. CONCLUSION: Relative to the appropriate comparison groups, hospitalization for an AMI increases the risk of death and the total costs and lengths of stay of subsequent hospitalizations for women more than for men. Therefore, increased primary prevention, diagnosis, and treatment efforts should be directed toward women.     

Age-period-cohort effects on ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden from 1969 to 1993, and forecasts up to 2003

AIMS: Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has been decreasing in most industrialized countries since the 1960s. The aim of this study was to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality during 1969-1993 in Sweden, and to predict mortality trends until 2003. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-period cohort models were used to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993, and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003. Mortality rates in the age group 25-89 years decreased from 719 to 487 per 100,000 for men, and from 402 to 215 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.5% for men and 2.2% for women). The decline started earlier for women than for men. The ratio of age-adjusted mortality between men and women increased steadily over the study period. Predictions based on the full age-period cohort model for the period 1999-2003 gave mortality rates of 346 and 155 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Despite the ageing of the population, the total numbers of ischaemic heart disease deaths in Sweden are predicted to decline by approximately 25% in both men and women from 1989-93 to 1999-2003. CONCLUSION: A major decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality has been observed in the last 15 years in Sweden. Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain information which helps explain the decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality is to continue.     

Balloon dilatation in acute myocardial infarct in routine clinical practice: results of the register of the Working Society of Leading Cardiologic Hospital Physicians in 4,625 patients

Balloon angioplasty as the treatment of first choice in the setting of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is gaining widespread acceptance because of favourable results from specialised centres concerning high patency rates and low mortality. This study reports the results of angioplasty for AMI at large community hospitals during 1992-1995. 4625 procedures were performed at 68 centres of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Leitender Kardiologischer Krankenhaus?rzte (ALKK). The age of the patients was 60.8 +/- 11.3 years, with 75.1% men. The infarct related artery was the left anterior descendent in 43%, the right coronary artery in 37%, the circumflex artery in 16%, a bypass graft in 2.3% and the left main stem in 1.4% of patients. The success rate (residual stenosis < 50%) of the intervention was 86%. There was a wide range of procedures per centre, with a median of 40 AMI angioplasties per year and centre. The amount of angioplasties for AMI in relation to all angioplasties performed during this period rose from 5.2% in 1992 to 5.9% in 1995 (p = 0.01). Local complications at the puncture site occurred in 3.2%, with the need for a surgical intervention in 1.1% of patients. In 273 (5.9%) of the patients a second angioplasty was performed during the hospital stay. Aortocoronary bypass surgery was performed in 3% of the patients. Hospital mortality was 9.5% (438/4625 patients). The mortality rate remained constant during the years investigated (1992: 10.6%; 1993: 8.6%; 1994: 9.7%; 1995: 9.8%; p = ns). Higher mortality was observed in older patients, patients with multiple vessel disease, the left anterior descending artery or a bypass graft as infarct related artery as well as in patients with failed reperfusion (residual stenoses > 50%). Hospitals with a case load of more than 40 angioplasties for AMI per year showed a lower mortality as compared to the others. In clinical practice at large community hospitals results of angioplasty for AMI concerning mortality, complications and technical success rate are comparable to those of highly specialised centres. The absolute numbers of angioplasties for AMI increased constantly over the years.     

Benefit of screening mammography in women aged 40-49: a new meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of screening mammography have been conducted involving women aged 40-49 at entry. Current data are now available from these trials at 10.5 to 18 years of follow-up (average follow-up time: 12.7 years). Meta-analysis has been performed using a Mantel-Haenszel estimator method to combine current follow-up data from the eight RCTs of mammography that included women aged 40-49 at entry, including new follow-up data presented at the NIH Consensus Development Conference held January 21-23, 1997. Combining the most recent follow-up data on women aged 40-49 at entry into all eight RCTs yields a statistically significant 18% mortality reduction among women invited to screening mammography (relative risk: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.95). Combining all current follow-up data on women aged 40-49 at entry into the five Swedish RCTs yields a statistically significantly 29% mortality reduction among women invited to screening (relative risk: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.89). Meta-analysis including the most recent follow-up data from all eight RCTs involving women aged 40-49 at entry demonstrates for the first time a statistically significant mortality reduction due to regular screening mammography in women of this age group.     

Trends in HIV-1 prevalence may not reflect trends in incidence in mature epidemics: data from the Rakai population-based cohort, Uganda

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether trends in serial HIV-1 prevalence reflect trend in HIV incidence, and to decompose the effects of HIV-1 incidence, mortality, mobility and compliance on HIV-1 prevalence in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Two-year follow up (1990-1992) of an open cohort of all adults aged 15-59 years, resident in a sample of 31 representative community clusters in rural Rakai District, Uganda. METHODS: A detailed household enumeration was concluded at baseline and in each subsequent year. All household residents were listed, and all deaths and in- and out-migrations that occurred in the intersurvey year wee recorded. In each year, all consenting adults were interviewed and provided a serological sample; 2591 adults aged 15-59 years were enrolled at baseline. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among adults declined significantly 1990 and 1992 (23.4% at baseline, 21.8% in 1991, 20.9% in 1992; P < 0.05). Declining prevalence was also observed in subgroups, including young adults aged 15-24 years (from 20.6 to 16.2% over 3 years; P < 0.02), women of reproductive age (from 27.1 to 23.5%; P < 0.05), and pregnant women (from 25.4 to 20.0%; not significant), However, HIV incidence did not change significantly among all adults aged 15-59 years (2.1 +/- 0.4 per 100 person-years of observation (PYO) in 1990-1991 and 2.0 +/- 0.3 per 100 PYO in 1991-1992], nor in population subgroups. HIV-related mortality was high (13.5 per 100 PYO among the HIV-positive), removing more infected persons that were added by seroconversion. Net out-migration also removed substantial numbers of HIV-positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In this mature HIV epidemic, HIV prevalence declined in the presence of stable and incidence. HIV-related mortality contributed most to the prevalence decline. Prevalence was not an adequate surrogate measure of incidence, limiting the utility or serial prevalence measures in assessing the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and in evaluating the impact of current preventive strategies.