共查询到15条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
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人因可靠性分析(HRA)已成为概率安全分析(PSA)必不可少的内容.事故前人因事件可靠性分析作为HRA的重要组成部分,对PSA最终计算结果有重要影响.本文描述了事故前人因事件分析的基本程序、方法及分析文档模式,建立了程序化的事故前人因事件分析模式,该分析方法在国内某核电厂最近的HRA分析中得到应用并取得成功. 相似文献
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人员可靠性分析(HRA)作为核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)中的重要组成要素,一直是影响PSA分析质量和风险见解的关键内容。目前业界中已有的HRA方法众多,不同的HRA方法各有优缺点且存在基础数据过老的问题,为此,美国核管理委员会联合HRA领域权威专家开发了一种综合性的HRA方法--人员失误事件综合分析系统,简称IDHEAS方法。本文对IDHEAS方法进行了系统性的研究,对相关实施流程和要点进行归纳,并运用IDHEAS方法进行了实例分析。理论研究和实例分析表明,IDHEAS方法在工程应用上具备可操作性,能较好弥补其他HRA方法的局限性。同时,IDHEAS方法亦存在对时间参数不敏感、部分分析内容依赖于分析人员经验等特点。 相似文献
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人因可靠性分析(HRA)已成为概率安全分析(PSA)不可或缺的内容.激发事故初因的人因事件(B类人因事件)分析作为HRA的重要组成部分,在国内外尚无正式的分析报告.本文描述了B类人因事件的定义和分类,建立了B类人因事件分析基本程序和方法,该方法已在国内某核电厂最近的HRA分析中得到应用.文中还对1993年~2002年WANO 940件运行事件和国内某核电厂运行事件进行了B类人因事件统计分析和发生原因分析,并据此提出了预防和减少B类人因事件的措施. 相似文献
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人因可靠性分析(HRA)是概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分。秦山第三核电厂(简称秦山三核)初版HRA由加拿大原子能公司(AECL)完成,其采用的HRA方法为简化的ASEP HRA。为获得更符合秦山三核运行状态实际的HRA结论,本工作对秦山三核重新进行了HRA分析,并增加了事件间的相关性分析。在对国际HRA方法比较研究的基础上,秦山三核HRA采用了规范化的THERP+HCR分析方法。新分析所得数据与AECL数据比较分析结果表明,新分析与AECL的分析判断基本一致,但在合理性和准确性方面较原分析有明显提高,分析结论更符合秦山三核实际。 相似文献
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Prashant Tewari Gopika Vinod V.V.S. Sanyasi Rao P. Munshi M.S. Kalra 《Nuclear Engineering and Design》2011,241(12):5251-5262
Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risk associated with a complex engineered technological entity. Accuracy of PSA is influenced greatly by methodology, uncertainties in data/models, unjustified assumptions and incompleteness in analysis. The Risk Analysis (RA) model attempts to simulate reality, thus it is inevitable that there will be simplifying assumptions and idealizations of rather complex processes and phenomena. These simplifications and idealizations will generate uncertainties. The impact of these uncertainties must be addressed if the RA is to serve as a tool in the decision making process.Present work involves uncertainty analysis for station blackout initiated accident sequence. We have compared PSA study results of two codes, FaultTree+ (Isograph Inc.), a commercial software, and PMC (Program for Monte Carlo), developed in-house. Both these codes are based on Monte Carlo methods.We have developed another code, PFA (Program for Fuzzy Arithmetic) for PSA study. It is based on fuzzy arithmetic principle. We have compared Monte Carlo and Fuzzy arithmetic method by using PMC and PFA results. A comparative performance is reported in this work. 相似文献
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核电厂传统人员可靠性分析方法中引入班组因素的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在核电厂等大型复杂系统中,人员干预行为通常以班组的协作来完成,而目前核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)采用的以人的失误率预测技术(THERP)和人的认知可靠性(HCR)方法为代表的人员可靠性分析(HRA)方法主要关注对个人绩效的影响,它们在评估核电厂主控室班组绩效时存在一定局限。本文定义一种新的绩效形成因子“班组绩效形成因子(TPSF)”,并将其合理地引入THERP和HCR方法的定量化体系中,使它们可在一定程度上体现班组环境对人员绩效的影响。文章提出了TPSF等级的评价方法及将其引入THERP和HCR方法的定性实施框架。结果证明,合理地将班组因素引入传统HRA方法能改进它们对班组环境下人员绩效模化的合理性。 相似文献
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Effect of uncertainties in best-estimate thermal hydraulic analysis on core damage frequency for PSA
Yun-Je Cho Tae-Jin Kim Ho-Gon Lim Goon-Cherl Park 《Nuclear Engineering and Design》2010,240(12):4021-4030
Generally, thermal hydraulic (TH) analyses have been performed as part of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) to construct event trees and to evaluate success criteria. Even though an accident scenario in an event tree for PSA is exceedingly dependent on many uncertainty parameters, TH analysis in PSA, up to now, has been performed without considering the uncertainties for the important parameters. In the present study, TH analysis was carried out using the MARS code to simulate the large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) which is one of the event sequences of level 1 PSA in an optimized power reactor 1000 MWe (OPR1000). First, the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for LBLOCA were established, and the candidate parameters were set-up. Once the input file for the MARS code was made with consideration of the uncertainties of the candidate parameters, and a parameter assessment was carried out with the MARS code to rank the candidate parameters according to the effect on peak cladding temperature (PCT). For the five highest-ranking parameters resulting from parameter assessment, the probability density function (PDF) of PCT was derived by the response surface method (RSM), and comparative Monte Carlo calculations were also performed to assess the accuracy of the RSM. As a result, it was shown that by considering the uncertainties of the TH analysis, the accident sequence, which had filed in the PSA result in the established PSA results, had a possibility of succeeding, and thus, be able to modify the core damage frequency (CDF). 相似文献
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Faramarz Yousefpour Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni Seyed Mojtaba Hoseyni Seyed Ali Hashemi Olia Kaveh Karimi 《核技术(英文版)》2017,28(8)
The Level-2 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of pressurized water reactors studies the possibility of creep rupture for major reactor coolant system components during the course of high pressure severe accident sequences.The present paper covers this technical issue and tries to quantify its associated phenomenological uncertainties for the development of Level-2 PSA.A framework is proposed for the formal quantification of uncertainties in the Level-2 PSA model of a PWR type nuclear power plant using an integrated deterministic and PSA approach.This is demonstrated for estimation of creep rupture failure probability in station blackout severe accident of a 2-loop PWR,which is the representative case for high pressure sequences.MELCOR 1.8.6 code is employed here as the deterministic tool for the assessment of physical phenomena in the course of accident.In addition,a MATLAB code is developed for quantification of the probabilistic part by treating the uncertainties through separation of aleatory and epistemic sources of uncertainty.The probability for steam generator tube creep rupture is estimated at 0.17. 相似文献