人的可靠性分析方法比较

选择了THERP、ASEPHRA、HCR、HEART、SLIM、CREAM、ATHEANA等7种常用的人的可靠性分析（HRA）方法进行比较,提出了HRA方法比较的12个标准,并用这些标准得到了HRA方法的比较结果。方法比较的标准和依据来自HRA方法的理论基础、模型、分析过程、具体实践,以及文献调研和专家判断。     

广东核电站的人可靠性分析

人的可靠性分析是广东核电站PSA研究中的一个重要部分,其目的是研究电站中人的行为对反应堆堆芯熔化频率的影响,文章对广东核电站事故序列中可能出现的人误进行了定性和定量化分析,给出了PSA研究中需要的人误概率值。详细的人因分析将在以后的工作中进行。     

人的认知可靠性模型分类及实验研究

通过秦山核电站操纵员的模拟机实验,讨论了人的认知可靠性模型的参数和分类的确定方法．给出了模拟机实验操纵员响应时数据的处理分析方法,确认了响应时影响分类的主要因素是规范化拟合标准偏差,它是威布尔分布拟合的隐含参数一应用本文的数据处理和分类方法对秦山模拟机实验数据进行分析,取得了秦山操纵员认知可靠性的参数,将结果与美国IAEA实验结果进行比较,得到了基本一致的结论。     

人因可靠性分析技术的研究进展与发展趋势

本文对人因可靠性分析方法进行综述。分别对人因可靠性分析的理论基础——人因失误机理、人因可靠性分析方法的关键要素以及现有的人因可靠性分析方法的研究现状进行了介绍和评析,指出了这些研究方法的不足,以及目前研究的热点和难点问题。总结并展望了人因可靠性分析方法的发展趋势。     

浅议核电厂“人因可靠性分析”的审评

论述了人因可靠性分析在核电厂设计中的重要性,简要介绍了人因可靠性分析在人因工程项目中的角色,详细描述了人因可靠性分析的审评目的和审评标准。     

一种整合组织因素的人因可靠性分析方法

为了模拟组织因素对人的可靠性影响,将概念模型与贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种整合组织因素的人因可靠性分析的新方法。将该方法应用于某核电厂的辅助给水系统阀门泄漏案例分析,结果表明,采用概念模型与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法不仅能很好地模拟组织因素与人的可靠性之间的因果关系,而且在给定情境下,能定量对人的可靠性进行度量,并能识别出引发人因失误的最可能根原因。     

核电厂传统人员可靠性分析方法中引入班组因素的研究

在核电厂等大型复杂系统中,人员干预行为通常以班组的协作来完成,而目前核电厂概率安全评价（PSA）采用的以人的失误率预测技术（THERP）和人的认知可靠性（HCR）方法为代表的人员可靠性分析（HRA）方法主要关注对个人绩效的影响,它们在评估核电厂主控室班组绩效时存在一定局限。本文定义一种新的绩效形成因子“班组绩效形成因子（TPSF）”,并将其合理地引入THERP和HCR方法的定量化体系中,使它们可在一定程度上体现班组环境对人员绩效的影响。文章提出了TPSF等级的评价方法及将其引入THERP和HCR方法的定性实施框架。结果证明,合理地将班组因素引入传统HRA方法能改进它们对班组环境下人员绩效模化的合理性。     

秦山第三核电厂人因可靠性分析

人因可靠性分析（HRA）是概率安全评价（PSA）的重要组成部分。秦山第三核电厂（简称秦山三核）初版HRA由加拿大原子能公司（AECL）完成,其采用的HRA方法为简化的ASEP HRA。为获得更符合秦山三核运行状态实际的HRA结论,本工作对秦山三核重新进行了HRA分析,并增加了事件间的相关性分析。在对国际HRA方法比较研究的基础上,秦山三核HRA采用了规范化的THERP+HCR分析方法。新分析所得数据与AECL数据比较分析结果表明,新分析与AECL的分析判断基本一致,但在合理性和准确性方面较原分析有明显提高,分析结论更符合秦山三核实际。     

考虑组织和管理因素影响的人误概率计算方法

采用三级影响图模型，对人的失误概率计算进行了描述，模型中能考虑组织和管理因素对人误概率的影响。概率影响图最初只是作为构造和表征决策树或事件树模型的一种工具，本文按三级影响水平对产人识的原因建立了分析模型，介绍了定量求解影响图模型的方法。它可用于核电厂概率安全评价中的人误概率计算，也可用于复杂树的定量化，它是一种工程决策分析中的重要方法。     

可靠性分析中的不确定性——安全壳喷淋系统分析

本文简要介绍了不确定性分析的概念,讨论了矩法、离散概率分布法和蒙特卡洛模拟法等三种误差传播方法;对安全壳淋系统无效度的不确定性进行了计算。     

全局决策树方法在核电站人员可靠性分析中的应用研究

以核电厂人员可靠性分析中的全局决策树方法及其应用研究为主要内容。重点介绍全局决策树方法的基本框架、背景和实施步骤。结合秦山二期核电厂的人员可靠性现场访谈形成影响因子和品质等级描述,并以SLOCA和SGTR为例进行全局决策树方法分析。该方法以图形化决策树的形式,综合考虑了各个影响因子对人误概率的影响。分析表明该方法能够适应人误分析过程中出现的不确定性,具有较高的可靠性和实用性。     

Human reliability analysis for operators in the digital main control rooms of nuclear power plants

ABSTRACT

As the main control room of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been gradually digitized, new human reliability problems may emerge because of a series of new changes in the cognitive processes, behavioral patterns, and error mechanisms of operators. Aiming to address this situation, this paper proposes a method as guidance for human reliability analysis (HRA) of different cognitive Stages. This method first constructs the influencing factors of three cognitive processes, including monitoring, decision-making, and execution of actions, and then evaluates the weights of these influencing factors through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the parameters used in the proposed HRA method were determined by analyzing the test data obtained from a simulation model, and the results demonstrated the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. A case example using this HRA method was given in which the human error probabilities at three stages in a nuclear power plant (NPP) steam generator tube ruptures (SGTR) accident were obtained. In summary, the proposed method is a simple and feasible HRA tool that can be applied in digital NPP main control rooms (MCRs).     

Uncertainties associated with the reliability of thermal-hydraulic nuclear passive systems

ABSTRACT

The increasing adoption of passive safety based front-line systems in advanced nuclear power reactors due to their simplicity, cost competitiveness and autonomous nature makes it very essential to carefully consider the uncertainties associated with their behaviour and the phenomena linked to their operations. The passive safety systems (PSSs) are known to be characterized with several uncertainties in their modelling and operations. These uncertainties are usually more pronounced than those of their active systems counterparts due to the stochastic nature of the associated phenomena, insufficient knowledge of their physics of operation and inadequacy of relevant real/experimental data. This paper thus focused on the uncertainty issues of the thermal-hydraulic (t-h) PSSs which influence their reliability analysis. In addition, the inadequacies of previous research, current research challenges and likely future research directions on uncertainties associated with the models and phenomena applicable to the t-h PSSs adopted in advanced reactors were discussed. For the purpose of illustration, Weibull distribution was adopted for the failures associated with a generic passively cooled steam generator and Bayesian approach applied to account for phenomenological uncertainty. The output of the approach justified the need to account for epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis of such systems.     

CREAM追溯法及其在根原因分析中的应用

认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM)是第二代人因可靠性分析方法中的代表方法之一,它具有追溯和预测的双向分析功能。介绍了CREAM追溯分析方法的基本思想,给出了追溯分析的实现框架和具体步骤。应用CREAM追溯法对三哩岛事故进程中的重要人因失误事件进行了根原因追溯分析,结果表明根原因是和电站的情景环境有关的,是迫使人因失误发生的因素,也说明了CREAM追溯分析方法的实用性和有效性。     

可靠性数据威布尔分析中秩评定算法改进研究

随着概率安全分析工作的深入发展,可靠性数据及其分析工作越来越显示出其重要的价值和作用.威布尔分析方法是一种常见的可靠性数据分析方法,并被广泛应用于工程实际.在总结了威布尔分析方法中应用较为广泛的几种中位秩计算公式的基础上,利用遗传算法对其一般表达式中的待定参数进行优化,进而提出了改进型的中位秩计算公式.实例证明利用改进后的中位秩计算公式,可以减小秩评定过程的误差,提高可靠度计算的精度.     

Estimation method of systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo particle transport simulation based on analysis of variance

In the present work, the authors propose a standard analytical method to estimate systematic uncertainties in the Monte Carlo particle transport simulation based on analysis of variance (ANOVA). As sample problems, two sets of neutron-shielding calculations for evaluating effective dose were performed using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System coupled with ANOVA. In the simulation, we selected the total cross section and the water density in material as unclear physical quantities to induce systematic uncertainties. Systematic and statistical uncertainties were evaluated by changing the number of simulation conditions and trials per condition, where each condition is associated with one set of unclear quantities. Then, we analyzed the dependence of convergence of the systematic uncertainties on the number of conditions and trials. The analysis results show that simulations with only three conditions are adequate in the case where variations in the conditions have a monotonic effect on the calculation results, while more than 100 conditions are required in the other cases. In addition, we propose a useful criterion to determine the appropriate number of trials for converging systematic uncertainties.     

人发中微量元素的中子活化分析

本文介绍采用长短照射相结合的仪器中子活化分析法,测定了克山病病区、非病区的男性儿童头发中多种微量元素含量。比较了国内常用的及IAEA推荐的清洗方法对头发中微量元素测定的影响。用NBS标准参考物核对了实验中使用的部份标准,结果满意。本工作共分析了48例头发样品中27种元素含量,初步获得了某些元素在三个地区人发中分布的规律。     

The role of frameworks, models, data, and judgment in human reliability analysis

Many advancements in the methods for treating human interactions in PRA studies have occurred in the last decade. These advancements appear to increase the capability of PRAs to extend beyond just the assessment of the human's importance to safety. However, variations in the application of these advanced models, data, and judgment in recent PRAs make quantitative comparisons among studies extremely difficult. This uncertainty in the analysis diminishes the usefulness of the PRA study for upgrading procedures, enhancing training, simulator design, technical specification guidance, and for aid in designing the man-machine interface. Hence, there is a need for a framework to guide analysts in incorporating human interactions into the PRA systems analyses so that future users of a PRA study will have a clear understanding of the approaches, models, data, and assumptions which were employed in the initial study.This paper describes the role of the systematic human action reliability procedure (SHARP) in providing a road map through the complex terrain of human reliability analysis that promises to improve the reproducibility of such analysis in the areas of selecting the models, data, representations, and assumptions.Also described is the role that a human cognitive reliability model can have in collecting data from simulators and helping analysts assign human reliability parameters in a PRA study.Use of these systematic approaches to perform or upgrade existing PRAs promises to make PRA studies more useful as risk management tools.     

数字化人机界面人因可靠性分析方法研究与应用

为了将人因工程方面有关人的能力和限制的知识应用到人机界面的设计,从而使控制室系统设计达到人‐机‐环境的最佳匹配,本文研究通过人因可靠性分析方法,结合人因工程设计过程,建立一种适于工程应用的综合性分析方法来识别人机界面中影响人员绩效和容易诱发人因失误的潜在设计缺陷,并采用系统化的方法来优化人机界面设计。结果表明,本文建立的方法具有可操作性强、评价客观等优点,可有效提高核电厂安全性、可靠性和经济性。该方法现已成功应用于在建的CPR1000各项目,具有广阔的应用空间。     

灵敏度分析方法在非能动系统可靠性研究中的应用

在研究核电站安全时,热工水力非能动系统的可靠性研究基于所建立的热工水力学数值模型。模型通常极其复杂,具有多个输入参数,且输入参数具有不确定性,对模型输出的不确定性的影响又各不相同。灵敏度分析的目的是将各参数对模型输出的不确定性的影响进行排序,找出显著的影响参数。本文首先描述灵敏度分析的方法,然后应用秩转换回归分析方法计算HTR-10余热排出系统模型各参数的灵敏度,找出关键影响因素,将模型简化,并对简化模型应用响应面方法计算了失效概率。简化模型算得的失效概率与原模型的很接近。