Predicting river daily flow using wavelet-artificial neural networks based on regression analyses in comparison with artificial neural networks and support vector machine models

This study investigates the ability of wavelet-artificial neural networks (WANN) for the prediction of short-term daily river flow. The WANN model is improved by conjunction of two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (ANN) based on regression analyses, respectively. The proposed WANN models are applied to the daily flow data of Vanyar station, on the Ajichai River in the northwest region of Iran, and compared with the ANN and support vector machine (SVM) techniques. Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are used for evaluating precision of the WANN, ANN and SVM models. Comparison results demonstrate that the WANN model performs better than the ANN and SVM models in short-term (1-, 2- and 3-day ahead) daily river flow prediction.

     

基于EEMD和萤火虫算法优化SVM的溶解氧预测

养殖池塘中的溶解氧(DO)对水产品的生长和品质有着至关重要的作用.为了提高溶解氧预测的准确性和有效性,提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和萤火虫算法(FA)优化支持向量机(SVM)的组合预测模型.首先,将DO 时间序列通过集合经验模态分解为一组去除噪声的并相对稳定的子序列.接着,利用相空间重构(PSR)重建分解...     

Flood simulation using parallel genetic algorithm integrated wavelet neural networks

The conventional means of flood simulation and prediction using conceptual hydrological model or artificial neural network (ANN) has provided promising results in recent years. However, it is usually difficult to obtain ideal flood reproducing due to the structure of hydrological model. Back propagation (BP) algorithm of ANN may also reach local optimum when training nodal weights. To improve the mapping capability of neural networks, wavelet function was adopted (WANN) to strengthen the non-linear simulation accuracy and generality. In addition, genetic algorithm is integrated with WANN (GAWANN) to avoid reaching local optimum. Meanwhile, Message Passing Interface (MPI) subroutines are introduced for distributed implement considering the time consumption during nodal weights training. The GAWANN was applied in the flood simulation and prediction in arid area. The test results of 4 independent cases were compared to reveal the relations between historical rainfall and runoff under different time lags. The simulation was also carried out with Xinanjiang model to demonstrate the capability of GAWANN. The numerical experiments in this paper indicated that the parallel GAWANN has strong capability of rain-runoff mapping as well as computational efficiency and is suitable for applications of flood simulation in arid areas.     

Estimation of Volumetric Oxygen Concentration in a Marine Environment with an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is a key indicator of the health and productivity of an aquatic ecosystem. This paper presents a new method for high‐resolution characterization of DO as a function of both space and time. The implementation of a new oxygen optode in an Iver2 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is described, which enables the system to measure both absolute oxygen concentration and percentage saturation. Also described are details of AUV missions in Hopavågen Bay, Norway, which consisted of a series of repeated undulating lawnmower patterns that covered the bay. Through offline postprocessing of data, sensor characteristic models were developed, as well as a 3D lattice time series model. The model was constructed by estimating DO at each 3D lattice node location using a 1D Kalman filter that fused local measurements obtained with the AUV. By repeating model construction for several missions that spanned 24 h, estimates of DO as a function of space and time were calculated. Results demonstrated (1) the AUVs ability to repeatedly gather high‐spatial‐resolution data (2) significant spatial and temporal variation in DO in the water body investigated, and (3) that a 3D model of DO provides better estimates of total DO in a volume than extrapolating from only a single 2D plane. Given the importance of oxygen within an ecosystem, this new method of estimating the quantity of DO per volume has the potential to become a reliable test for the health of an underwater ecosystem. Also, it can be refined for detecting and monitoring a range of soluble gases and dispersed particles in aquatic environments, such as dissolved O₂ and CO₂ around production facilities such as fish farms, or dispersed hydrocarbons and other pollutants in fragile ecosystems. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN’s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.     

基于自组织模糊神经网络溶解氧控制方法研究

针对污水处理过程中溶解氧浓度难以控制的问题,提出了一种基于自组织模糊神经网络（self-organizing fuzzy neural network, SOFNN）的溶解氧（dissolved oxygen, DO）控制方法。首先,采用激活强度和神经元重要性两个评判标准,来判断神经元对网络的贡献及活跃程度。然后,对不活跃的神经元进行删减,以此来对神经网络结构进行自适应的调整,从而满足实际控制要求,提高控制精度。其次,采用梯度下降算法对SOFNN神经网络的各个参数进行实时调整,以保证网络的精度。最后,将该自组织方法用在Mackey-Glass时间序列预测中,结果表明所提出的自组织模糊神经网络具有较好的预测效果;同时将所提出的SOFNN方法在BSM1仿真平台上进行实验验证。结果表明,所提出的自组织模糊神经网络控制方法能够对溶解氧浓度进行较好地控制,具有一定的自适应能力。     

A moving-average filter based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model for forecasting time series data

A suitable combination of linear and nonlinear models provides a more accurate prediction model than an individual linear or nonlinear model for forecasting time series data originating from various applications. The linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) models are explored in this paper to devise a new hybrid ARIMA–ANN model for the prediction of time series data. Many of the hybrid ARIMA–ANN models which exist in the literature apply an ARIMA model to given time series data, consider the error between the original and the ARIMA-predicted data as a nonlinear component, and model it using an ANN in different ways. Though these models give predictions with higher accuracy than the individual models, there is scope for further improvement in the accuracy if the nature of the given time series is taken into account before applying the models. In the work described in this paper, the nature of volatility was explored using a moving-average filter, and then an ARIMA and an ANN model were suitably applied. Using a simulated data set and experimental data sets such as sunspot data, electricity price data, and stock market data, the proposed hybrid ARIMA–ANN model was applied along with individual ARIMA and ANN models and some existing hybrid ARIMA–ANN models. The results obtained from all of these data sets show that for both one-step-ahead and multistep-ahead forecasts, the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy.     

A hybrid neural network and ARIMA model for water quality time series prediction

Accurate predictions of time series data have motivated the researchers to develop innovative models for water resources management. Time series data often contain both linear and nonlinear patterns. Therefore, neither ARIMA nor neural networks can be adequate in modeling and predicting time series data. The ARIMA model cannot deal with nonlinear relationships while the neural network model alone is not able to handle both linear and nonlinear patterns equally well. In the present study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model is proposed that is capable of exploiting the strengths of traditional time series approaches and artificial neural networks. The proposed approach consists of an ARIMA methodology and feed-forward, backpropagation network structure with an optimized conjugated training algorithm. The hybrid approach for time series prediction is tested using 108-month observations of water quality data, including water temperature, boron and dissolved oxygen, during 1996–2004 at Büyük Menderes river, Turkey. Specifically, the results from the hybrid model provide a robust modeling framework capable of capturing the nonlinear nature of the complex time series and thus producing more accurate predictions. The correlation coefficients between the hybrid model predicted values and observed data for boron, dissolved oxygen and water temperature are 0.902, 0.893, and 0.909, respectively, which are satisfactory in common model applications. Predicted water quality data from the hybrid model are compared with those from the ARIMA methodology and neural network architecture using the accuracy measures. Owing to its ability in recognizing time series patterns and nonlinear characteristics, the hybrid model provides much better accuracy over the ARIMA and neural network models for water quality predictions.     

The effect of ICA and PSO on ANN results in approximating elasticity modulus of rock material

Reliable determination/evaluation of the rock deformation can be useful prior any structural design application. Young’s modulus (E) affords great insight into the characteristics of the rock. However, its direct determination in the laboratory is costly and time-consuming. Therefore, rock deformation prediction through indirect techniques is greatly suggested. This paper describes hybrid particle swarm optimization (PSO)–artificial neural network (ANN) and imperialism competitive algorithm (ICA)–ANN to solve shortcomings of ANN itself. In fact, the influence of PSO and ICA on ANN results in predicting E was studied in this research. By investigating the related studies, the most important parameters of PSO and ICA were identified and a series of parametric studies for their determination were conducted. All models were built using three inputs (Schmidt hammer rebound number, point load index and p-wave velocity) and one output which is E. To have a fair comparison and to show the capability of the hybrid models, a pre-developed ANN model was also constructed to estimate E. Evaluation of the obtained results demonstrated that a higher ability of E prediction is received developing a hybrid ICA–ANN model. Coefficient of determination (R²) values of (0.952, 0.943 and 0.753) and (0.955, 0.949 and 0.712) were obtained for training and testing of ICA–ANN, PSO–ANN and ANN models, respectively. In addition, VAF values near to 100 (95.182 and 95.143 for train and test) were achieved for a developed ICA–ANN hybrid model. The results indicated that the proposed ICA–ANN model can be implemented better in improving performance capacity of ANN model compared to another implemented hybrid model.

     

水中溶解氧含量的优化WLS-SVM预测方法

研究溶解氧含量预测的精确度与鲁棒性问题,为水质评价和水处理控制提供科学依据.探讨了水中溶解氧的影响因素及其作用规律,分析了现有预测算法的不足,在此基础上提出了一种新的溶解氧含量预测方法.从样本集中随机抽取数据构成训练集和测试集,以网格搜索法确定WLS-SVM的参数寻优范围,再用QPSO与留一交叉验证组合算法找出其最优值,以此建立WLS-SVM回归模型进行水中溶解氧含量的预测.应用该方法与LS-SVMlab工具箱函数分别建模进行对比测试,结果表明其预测精确度和鲁棒性都更好.     

New robust forecasting models for exchange rates prediction

This paper introduces two robust forecasting models for efficient prediction of different exchange rates for future months ahead. These models employ Wilcoxon artificial neural network (WANN) and Wilcoxon functional link artificial neural network (WFLANN). The learning algorithms required to train the weights of these models are derived by minimizing a robust norm called Wilcoxon norm. These models offer robust exchange rate predictions in the sense that the training of weight parameters of these models are not influenced by outliers present in the training samples. The Wilcoxon norm considers the rank or position of an error value rather than its amplitude. Simulation based experiments have been conducted using real life data and the results indicate that both models, unlike conventional models, demonstrate consistently superior prediction performance under different densities of outliers present in the training samples. Further, comparison of performance between the two proposed models reveals that both provide almost identical performance but the later involved low computational complexity and hence is preferable over the WANN model.     

基于粒子群算法优化支持向量回归的水质预测模型

溶解氧是反映水污染程度的一个重要指标,准确的预测可以高效合理地判断水质环境的状况。由于水质环境的实时变化和复杂性以及收集数据的偏差,在水生系统中获得高效、精确的预测模型是困难的。因此,首先利用主成分分析（PCA）确定影响水质溶解氧的变量数目,降低数据维数,为解决变量间的非线性和非平稳性问题,提出用互信息（MI）选取影响...     

污水处理曝气池溶解氧智能优化控制系统

提出一种新的溶解氧优化控制方法,根据不同的进水水质,利用在线多输入多输出最小二乘支持向量机软测量模型预测出水参数值.将这些参数作为水质反馈信号,使用模糊神经网络动态优化与进水水质对应的溶解氧设定值.最后利用神经网络逆控制系统跟踪优化的溶解氧设定值,从而实现在达到出水指标的前提下,既能保证出水水质的稳定,又能有效消除曝气量冗余,实现曝气量的动态优化,有效减少电能消耗.     

Improving artificial neural networks’ performance in seasonal time series forecasting

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) structure is proposed for seasonal time series forecasting. The proposed structure considers the seasonal period in time series in order to determine the number of input and output neurons. The model was tested for four real-world time series. The results found by the proposed ANN were compared with the results of traditional statistical models and other ANN architectures. This comparison shows that the proposed model comes with lower prediction error than other methods. It is shown that the proposed model is especially convenient when the seasonality in time series is strong; however, if the seasonality is weak, different network structures may be more suitable.     

基于GA-LSSVR的渭河水质参数遥感反演研究

针对渭河水质参数遥感反演这一典型的非线性、小样本回归估计问题,引入最小二乘支持向量回归（LSSVR）方法来解决,它将SVR中的二次规划问题转化为线性方程组求解,在保证精度的同时极大地降低了计算复杂性,加快了求解速度;针对其参数难以选择的问题,利用遗传算法(GA)来优选模型参数。采用提出的方法对标准数据集进行了实验,并建模对渭河的4种水质参数CODmn(高锰酸盐指数)、NH₃-N(氨氮)、 DO(溶解氧)、COD(化学需氧量)进行了遥感反演,结果表明GA-LSSVR模型可用于解决复杂的回归问题并具有较好的预测性能。     

The use of neural networks for the prediction of the settlement of one-way footings on cohesionless soils based on standard penetration test

In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict the settlement of one-way footings, without a need to perform any manual work such as using tables or charts. To achieve this, a computer programme was developed in the Matlab programming environment for calculating the settlement of one-way footings from five traditional settlement prediction methods. The footing geometry (length and width), the footing embedment depth, the bulk unit weight of the cohesionless soil, the footing applied pressure, and corrected standard penetration test varied during the settlement analyses, and the settlement value of each one-way footing was calculated for each traditional method by using the written programme. Then, an ANN model was developed for each method to predict the settlement by using the results of the analyses. The settlement values predicted from each ANN model developed were compared with the settlement values calculated from the traditional method. The predicted values were found to be quite close to the calculated values. Additionally, several performance indices such as determination coefficient, variance account for, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and scaled percent error were computed to check the prediction capacity of the ANN models developed. The constructed ANN models have shown high prediction performance based on the performance indices calculated. The results demonstrated that the ANN models developed can be used at the preliminary stage of designing one-way footing on cohesionless soils without a need to perform any manual work such as using tables or charts.     

Prediction of seismic slope stability through combination of particle swarm optimization and neural network

One of the main concerns in geotechnical engineering is slope stability prediction during the earthquake. In this study, two intelligent systems namely artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO)–ANN models were developed to predict factor of safety (FOS) of homogeneous slopes. Geostudio program based on limit equilibrium method was utilized to obtain 699 FOS values with different conditions. The most influential factors on FOS such as slope height, gradient, cohesion, friction angle and peak ground acceleration were considered as model inputs in the present study. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed in modeling procedures of both intelligent systems. All 699 datasets were randomly selected to 5 different datasets based on training and testing. Considering some model performance indices, i.e., root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R ²) and value account for (VAF) and using simple ranking method, the best ANN and PSO–ANN models were selected. It was found that the PSO–ANN technique can predict FOS with higher performance capacities compared to ANN. R ² values of testing datasets equal to 0.915 and 0.986 for ANN and PSO–ANN techniques, respectively, suggest the superiority of the PSO–ANN technique.     

C#和LabVIEW混合编程在水产养殖溶解氧监控中的应用

水产养殖过程中,为了实现溶解氧的实时监测和及时报警,提出一种C＃和LabVIEW混合编程的溶解氧监测控制系统。LabVIEW负责数据采集,C＃上位机程序通过调用LabVIEW生成的DLL,用户通过C＃程序给LabVIEW发送采集命令,当LabVIEW接收到用户的命令后进行数据采集。系统的主要特点是在上位机上根据养殖水产品的养殖时段,动态调用溶解氧的预测算法,实时传递采集指令给各个 Lab-VIEW子程序,将数据采集和数据分析处理分开,减少由于LabVIEW的串口轮询通信方式带来的CPU使用率。系统能够在当溶解氧超过设定的报警值时及时报警,确保养殖水环境参数正常。     

High performance concrete compressive strength forecasting using ensemble models based on discrete wavelet transform

This paper investigates the use of wavelet ensemble models for high performance concrete (HPC) compressive strength forecasting. More specifically, we incorporate bagging and gradient boosting methods in building artificial neural networks (ANN) ensembles (bagged artificial neural networks (BANN) and gradient boosted artificial neural networks (GBANN)), first. Coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) statics are used for performance evaluation of proposed predictive models. Empirical results show that ensemble models (R²_BANN=0.9278, R²_GBANN=0.9270) are superior to a conventional ANN model (R²_ANN=0.9088). Then, we use the coupling of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ANN ensembles for enhancing the prediction accuracy. The study concludes that DWT is an effective tool for increasing the accuracy of the ANN ensembles (R²_WBANN=0.9397, R²_WGBANN=0.9528).     

Hybrid neural modeling for groundwater level prediction

The accurate prediction of groundwater level is important for the efficient use and management of groundwater resources, particularly in sub-humid regions where water surplus in monsoon season and water scarcity in non-monsoon season is a common phenomenon. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a hybrid neural model (ANN-GA) employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model in conjunction with famous optimization strategy called genetic algorithms (GA) for accurate prediction of groundwater levels in the lower Mahanadi river basin of Orissa State, India. Three types of functionally different algorithm-based ANN models (viz. back-propagation (GDX), Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian regularization (BR)) were used to compare the strength of proposed hybrid model in the efficient prediction of groundwater fluctuations. The ANN-GA hybrid modeling was carried out with lead-time of 1 week and study mainly aimed at November and January months of a year. Overall, simulation results suggest that the Bayesian regularization model is the most efficient of the ANN models tested for the study period. However, a strong correlation between the observed and predicted groundwater levels was observed for all the models. The results reveal that the hybrid GA-based ANN algorithm is able to produce better accuracy and performance in medium and high groundwater level predictions compared to conventional ANN techniques including Bayesian regularization model. Furthermore, the study shows that hybrid neural models can offer significant implications for improving groundwater management and water supply planning in semi-arid areas where aquifer information is not available.