Congruence of manufacturing decision areas in a production system: a research framework

A well designed production system secures environmental and internal fit. Environmental fit in a production system refers to alignment of manufacturing decisions to the external settings such as product and market. Internal fit implies that manufacturing decisions are mutually supportive. This paper develops a framework to analyse congruence of manufacturing decision areas in a production system. The framework considers six broad manufacturing decision areas. Based on the literature review, 54 decision types and alternative decision choices for each decision type are identified. The subjective and/or objective constructs to measure decision type are presented which should be useful in designing construct and in data gathering to conduct empirical research. Using the proposed framework, many research questions concerning the settings of several decision types for a specific type of production system can be generated and empirically tested.     

Using Quality Function Deployment to Select the Courses and Topics that Enhance Program Effectiveness

Decision science methods can be effective tools for enhancing organizational participation during strategic and complex decision processes. This involvement promotes development of group consensus for issues as difficult as relating organizational goals and the best methods to achieve them. In an academic context, such a process supports and enhances collegial participation. This paper describes an application of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) decision model to prioritize both courses and course content based on degree of impact on program objectives. The model was developed to quantify curricular decisions involved in restructuring a Masters of Engineering Management degree program. QFD supports selection of the courses and the curricular content that has the highest impact on program goals. The model provides a practical and quantitative methodology for developing faculty consensus in the selection of curricular topics based on a strategic program focus.     

Value analysis as a decision support tool in cruise ship design

In the cruise ship industry product development and production activities are really complex and must follow strict rules imposed by naval registries. Designers are frequently required to choose among several alternative solutions (e.g., materials, components, layouts, etc.). Because of time constraints, as a matter of fact, design decisions are made fast and in a reactive way, according to the particular case, without considering decisions made in the past and without using specific decision support tools. The final choice is often left to a single designer's experience, whose selection criteria are unknown and not formalised. As a consequence there is no shared knowledge justifying the reason why a design solution has been chosen and whether it is the best one. We developed and implemented in Fincantieri S.p.A. – a leading company in the cruise ship industry – an original decision support tool, based on value analysis, designers can use to document and formalise their choices. Value analysis is a well known structured method to increase product value and/or cut costs, thus supporting the selection of the most valuable solution by means of objective parameters. We demonstrate that the proposed tool can also facilitate reuse of the available knowledge base on decisional criteria, increase interactions between people (design staff, buyers, shipyard personnel, etc.) involved in different stages of different value analysis projects, and reduce decision time.     

Productivity measurement of the manufacturing process for outsourcing decisions: the case of a Taiwanese printed circuit board manufacturer

Outsourcing is used to alleviate capacity shortages and increase production flexibility. Generally, the outsourcing decision of manufacturing processes is determined by the capacity utilization rate and focus on individual process. In this article, multicriteria are considered by applying the data envelopment analysis to evaluate the relative efficiencies of all the manufacturing processes to help to assess the allocation of a company's resources. The Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is further employed to measure the productivity changes of each process, on which the outsourcing decision can be based. The empirical case of a Taiwanese printed circuit board manufacturer is applied to illustrate the outsourcing decision process. According to the outsourcing decision matrix proposed in this article, the manufacturing process with low efficiency score and MPI value was identified as a high priority for outsourcing. The outcome shows that the manufacturing process with a higher investment of fixed assets does not guarantee better efficiency. If a company follows the outsourcing decision suggested by the proposed approach, the capacity utility rate and the production quantity per person can be increased. The results and analysis model can provide an alternative for managerial thinking and practical application for outsourcing decisions.     

Using a bibliometric approach to support research policy making: The case of the Flemish BOF-key

In this paper, we describe the development of a methodology and an instrument to support a major research funding allocation decision by the Flemish government. Over the last decade, and in parallel with the decentralization and the devolution of the Belgian federal policy authority towards the various regions and communities in the country, science and technology policy have become a major component of regional policy making. In the Flemish region, there has been an increasing focus on basing the funding allocation decisions that originate from this policy decentralization on “objective, quantifiable and repeatable” decision parameters. One of the data sources and indicator bases that have received ample attention in this evolution is the use of bibliometric data and indicators. This has now led to the creation of a dedicated research and policy support staff, called “Steunpunt O&O Statistieken,” and the first time application of bibliometric data and methods to support a major inter-university funding allocation decision. In this paper, we analyze this evolution. We show how bibliometric data have for the first time been used to allocate 93 million Euro of public research money between 6 Flemish universities for the fiscal year 2003, based on Web-of-Science SCI data provided to “Steunpunt O&O Statistieken” via a license agreement with Thomson-ISI. We also discuss the limitations of the current approach that was based on inter-university publication and citation counts. We provide insights into future adaptations that might make it more representative of the total research activity at the universities involved (e.g., by including data for the humanities) and of its visibility (e.g., by including impact measures). Finally, based on our current experience and interactions with the universities involved, we speculate on the future of the specific bibliometric approach that has now been adopted. More specifically, we hypothesize that the allocation method now developed and under further improvement will become more criticized if it turns out that it (1) also starts influencing intra-university research allocation decisions and, as a consequence (2) introduces adverse publication and citation behaviors at the universities involved. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Design-build projects in architectural education

Design-build projects at the Welsh School of Architecture are described. Based in the ‘real world’ a design-build project differs significantly from the traditional studio-based design exercise. In particular it has the added ingredient of the tactile experience, which as defined here is more than just the direct physical contact with materials, but encompasses and emphasises the closeness of the students to the processes of decision making, designing, and building. The paper outlines what is learnt when the building site becomes the laboratory for learning, and identifies the difficulties encountered when students construct buildings and participate in projects with user/client groups within the community.     

Assessing changeability under uncertain exogenous disturbance

This paper introduces metrics derived from application of a Markov decision process to evaluate a design’s changeability. Changeability is known to improve product performance if conscientious early-stage design decisions are matched with structured management of the system in response to exogenous disturbances—shifts which may be environmental, market, technological, and political in nature. Included in the paper is a brief discussion of changeability’s role in ensuring strategic product performance as well as a review of past metrics developed, highlighting the open design challenge to more fully capture the managerial and process dimensions inherent to changeability. The proposed metrics are featured in a case study related to the ballast water system of an ocean-going vessel. The result of such application is greater context for the value changeability offers and an improved understanding of the resources required to manage uncertainty over the product’s life cycle.     

Methodological and conceptual questions of bibliometric standards

Bibliometric studies are mostly empirical nature and they are mostly centred arround presentation of facts and data. There are very few studies which are centred arround theoretical foundation. The facts are gathered either through surveys or from published bibliographies, indexes, data bases. Based on these facts, empirical models and principles are being developed. The normative principles and standards have to evolve from the logical analyses of the empirical models. The stage is set to integrate empirical models of bibliometrics into standards. Future, bibliometrics studies have to address this issue and reach the stage of normative principles.     

Identifying the psychological determinants of risky riding: An application of an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour

The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) plus moral norms, anticipated regret, past behaviour, self-identity and perceived susceptibility was applied to predicting motorcyclists’ intention to ride above the speed limit and ride at inappropriate speeds. Past behaviour, control beliefs, attitudes, moral norm, normative beliefs, age and self-identity explained 60% of the variance in motorcyclists’ intention to exceed the speed limit on motorways (N = 1381). A total of 62% of the variance in motorcyclists’ intention to really go for it on rural roads was accounted for, with past behaviour, attitudes, control beliefs, age, normative beliefs, anticipated regret, self-identity, behavioural beliefs and training status being significant (N = 1116). Finally, attitudes, past behaviour, control beliefs, moral norm, anticipated regret, behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs, engine size and self-identity explained 57% of the variance in motorcyclists’ intention to ride faster than felt safe in order to keep up with the group (N = 1940). The belief-based measures also successfully differentiated between those who intended to speed and those who did not. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Bayesian Weibull reliability estimation

The Weibull distribution is widely used as a failure model, particularly for mechanical components. This distribution is rich in shape and requires a fairly large sample size to produce accurate statistical estimators, particularly for the lower percentiles, as is usually required for a reliability analysis. In practice, sample sizes are almost always small and subjective judgement is applied, aided by a Weibull plot of the test data to determine the adequacy of the component design to meet reliability goals. The procedure is somewhat ad hoc, but apparently reasonably good results are obtained based on our experience with many past design and development programs and by comparison with actual field performance. We conjecture that the reason this procedure is successful is that test programs and methodology are standardized and quite well documented, from the standpoint of the physical test parameters. Test personnel have a wealth of experience in testing components, from one program to the next, and reliability judgements are made with regard to well-known points in the product's life. All of these factors tend to promote correct outcomes from the decision process even though sample sizes are small.

The Bayesian approach provides some structure for the application of subjective judgement to this decision process. To apply this approach, several complex decisions must be made. In this article, we have provided a structure for this decision process.     

Human and organizational biases affecting the management of safety

Management of safety is always based on underlying models or theories of organization, human behavior and system safety. The aim of the article is to review and describe a set of potential biases in these models and theories. We will outline human and organizational biases that have an effect on the management of safety in four thematic areas: beliefs about human behavior, beliefs about organizations, beliefs about information and safety models. At worst, biases in these areas can lead to an approach where people are treated as isolated and independent actors who make (bad) decisions in a social vacuum and who pose a threat to safety. Such an approach aims at building barriers and constraints to human behavior and neglects the measures aiming at providing prerequisites and organizational conditions for people to work effectively. This reductionist view of safety management can also lead to too drastic a strong separation of so-called human factors from technical issues, undermining the holistic view of system safety. Human behavior needs to be understood in the context of people attempting (together) to make sense of themselves and their environment, and act based on perpetually incomplete information while relying on social conventions, affordances provided by the environment and the available cognitive heuristics. In addition, a move toward a positive view of the human contribution to safety is needed. Systemic safety management requires an increased understanding of various normal organizational phenomena - in this paper discussed from the point of view of biases - coupled with a systemic safety culture that encourages and endorses a holistic view of the workings and challenges of the socio-technical system in question.     

The social innovation potential of ICT-enabled citizen observatories to increase eParticipation in local flood risk management

We live in the age of Big Data, yet many areas of environmental management are still suffering from a lack of relevant data, information and knowledge that impedes sound decision making in the face of change and increasing challenges. A highly relevant phenomenon is therefore the so-called citizen observatories whereby the observations of ordinary citizens, and not just those of professionals and scientists, are included in earth observation and environmental management. Advanced citizen observatories can enable a two-way communication paradigm between citizens and decision makers, potentially resulting in profound changes to local environmental management processes and, as such, in social innovation processes and outcomes. This paper analyses the social innovation potential of such ICT-enabled citizen observatories to increase eParticipation in local flood risk management. The findings from empirical research in two case study locations highlight the divergent roles that authorities conceive for citizens and the role(s) that citizens in practice assign to themselves. Moreover, given the institutional structures identified in these cases and the obligation of authorities to be accountable for their decisions, citizen observatories do not automatically imply that citizens will have a higher level of participation in flood risk management, nor that communication between stakeholders improves.     

A B2B flexible pricing decision support system for managing the request for quotation process under e-commerce business environment

In the era of digitalisation, e-commerce retail sites have become decisive channels for reaching millions of potential customers worldwide. Digital marketing strategies are formulated by the marketing teams in order to increase the traffic on their e-commerce sites, thereby boosting the sales of the products. With the massive amount of data available from the cloud, which were conventionally made with a high degree of intuition based on decision makers’ knowledge and experience, can now be supported with the application of artificial intelligence techniques. This paper introduces a novel approach in applying the fuzzy association rule mining approach and the fuzzy logic technique, for discovering the factors influencing the pricing decision of products launched in e-commerce retail site, and in formulating flexible, dynamic pricing strategies for each product launched in an e-commerce site. A pricing decision support system for B2B e-commerce retail businesses, namely Smart-Quo, is developed and implemented in a Hong Kong-based B2B e-commerce retail company. A six-month pilot run reveals a significant improvement in terms of the efficiency and effectiveness in making pricing decisions on each product. The case study demonstrates the feasibility and potential benefits of applying artificial intelligence techniques in marketing management in today’s digital age.     

Estimation with the nested logit model: specifications and software particularities

The paper discusses the nested logit model for choices between a set of mutually exclusive alternatives (e.g. brand choice, strategy decisions, modes of transportation, etc.). Due to the ability of the nested logit model to allow and account for similarities between pairs of alternatives, the model has become very popular for the empirical analysis of choice decisions. However the fact that there are two different specifications of the nested logit model (with different outcomes) has not received adequate attention. The utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) model and the non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) model have different properties, influencing the estimation results in a different manner. This paper introduces distinct specifications of the nested logit model and indicates particularities arising from model estimation. The effects of using various software packages on the estimation results of a nested logit model are shown using simulated data sets for an artificial decision situation. Financial support by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the research project #BO1952/1 and the SFB 649 “Economic Risk” is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments.     

The integration of manufacturing and cost information into the engineering design process

In manufacturing systems engaged in the batch manufacture of discrete products, critical decisions on materials and processes are made during the design phase, decisions having significant impact on costs of production. A new computer aided design tool has been developed to enable product designers in small to medium size companies to incorporate manufacturability and cost criteria into their decision making. The paper describes the rationale of the system and its mode of operation. Experiments to validate its practicality and usefulness have yielded encouraging results.     

Decisions in gear train transmission design

The main objective of this paper is a practical and useful approach to problem solving in decision making, by an intelligent computer program. The existing theoretical considerations of this problem are not sufficient for practical application, due to the complexity of this subject, numerous related influences, insufficient data, etc. The aim of this paper is to present a structure for decision making in gear train transmission design, to determine the correlation between decisions in this process and to propose a method for their realization.     

Sensor-driven prognostic models for equipment replacement and spare parts inventory

Accurate predictions of equipment failure times are necessary to improve replacement and spare parts inventory decisions. Most of the existing decision models focus on using population-specific reliability characteristics, such as failure time distributions, to develop decision-making strategies. Since these distributions are unaffected by the underlying physical degradation processes, they do not distinguish between the different degradation characteristics of individual components of the population. This results in less accurate failure predictability and hence less accurate replacement and inventory decisions. In this paper, we develop a sensor-driven decision model for component replacement and spare parts inventory. We integrate a degradation modeling framework for computing remaining life distributions using condition-based in situ sensor data with existing replacement and inventory decision models. This enables the dynamic updating of replacement and inventory decisions based on the physical condition of the equipment.     

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: Development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (QREM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals’ beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1.     

VoIP Diffusion among New Entrants: A Path Dependent Process

The path dependency literature provides insights on the dynamic allocation processes in which events are non-ergodic and have multiple absorbing states. Technological change belongs to this class of processes. This paper contributes to this conceptual framework by analysing the distinction between path and past dependence. The aim is to investigate how firms implement new innovations in localized technological changes. This conceptual framework is developed to present a longitudinal case study describing the history of VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) diffusion using data triangulation. From the empirical findings, it emerges that new entrants have applied the technology with creativity, following a path dependent process, offering free voice communication, while incumbents have applied the technology within a past dependent pattern and thus the benefits to their customers have been reduced and delayed.     

Network Based Real Time Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machinery

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