An Empirical Approach to Characterizing Risky Software Projects Based on Logistic Regression Analysis

During software development, projects often experience risky situations. If projects fail to detect such risks, they may exhibit confused behavior. In this paper, we propose a new scheme for characterization of the level of confusion exhibited by projects based on an empirical questionnaire. First, we designed a questionnaire from five project viewpoints, requirements, estimates, planning, team organization, and project management activities. Each of these viewpoints was assessed using questions in which experience and knowledge of software risks are determined. Secondly, we classify projects into “confused” and “not confused,” using the resulting metrics data. We thirdly analyzed the relationship between responses to the questionnaire and the degree of confusion of the projects using logistic regression analysis and constructing a model to characterize confused projects. The experimental result used actual project data shows that 28 projects out of 32 were characterized correctly. As a result, we concluded that the characterization of confused projects was successful. Furthermore, we applied the constructed model to data from other projects in order to detect risky projects. The result of the application of this concept showed that 7 out of 8 projects were classified correctly. Therefore, we concluded that the proposed scheme is also applicable to the detection of risky projects.     

What are the roles of software product managers? An empirical investigation

Software product management covers both technical and business activities to management of products like roadmaps, strategic, tactical, and release planning. In practice, one product manager is seldom responsible for all these activities but several persons share the responsibilities. Therefore, it is important to understand the boundaries of product managers’ work in managing software products, as well as the impact a product manager has on the company business. The purpose of the study is to clarify what roles of software product managers exist and understand how these roles are interrelated with each other and the whole structure and business of an organization. The study is designed as an interpretative qualitative study using grounded theory as the research method. Based on the gathered data we developed a framework that reveals the role of a product manager in the organization and shows how this role can evolve by extending the level of responsibilities. Using the framework, we identified four stereotypical roles of product managers in the studied organizations: experts, strategists, leaders, and problem solvers. The presented framework shows that product managers’ roles are not limited to the conception of the “mini-CEO.” The results allow product managers and top management to collaborate effectively by assigning responsibilities and managing expectations by having a common tool for understanding the role of product managers in the organization.     

软件项目管理及风险分析

软件项目的有效管理,对项目的成败具有至关重要的作用。软件项目的风险体现在哪些方面,如何回避这些风险,在本文中进行了探讨,最后指出建立合理的管理流程,对软件项目的管理来说,是非常重要的。     

软件风险管理及优化控制

描述并分析了基于CMM的软件风险管理特点,给出一个软件风险优化控制模型及优化控制策略,并设计一个动态规划的软件风险优化控制算法.最后给出使用上述方法解决问题的一个例子.该文的研究为有效地管理和定量地控制软件风险,提高软件项目的成功率提供了有力支持,因而可广泛应用于基于CMM的软件项目风险管理.     

An empirical study on the implementation and evaluation of a goal-driven software development risk management model

ContextBuilding a quality software product in the shortest possible time to satisfy the global market demand gives an enterprise a competitive advantage. However, uncertainties and risks exist at every stage of a software development project. These can have an extremely high influence on the success of the final software product. Early risk management practice is effective to manage such risks and contributes effectively towards the project success.ObjectiveDespite risk management approaches, a detailed guideline that explains where to integrate risk management activities into the project is still missing. Little effort has been directed towards the evaluation of the overall impact of a risk management method. We present a Goal-driven Software Development Risk Management Model (GSRM) and its explicit integration into the requirements engineering phase and an empirical investigation result of applying GSRM into a project.MethodWe combine the case study method with action research so that the results from the case study directly contribute to manage the studied project risks and to identify ways to improve the proposed methodology. The data is collected from multiple sources and analysed both in a qualitative and quantitative way.ResultsWhen risk factors are beyond the control of the project manager and project environment, it is difficult to control these risks. The project scope affects all the dimensions of risk. GSRM is a reasonable risk management method that can be employed in an industrial context. The study results have been compared against other study results in order to generalise findings and identify contextual factors.ConclusionA formal early stage risk management practice provides early warning related to the problems that exists in a project, and it contributes to the overall project success. It is not necessary to always consider budget and schedule constraints as top priority. There exist issues such as requirements, change management, and user satisfaction which can influence these constraints.     

How experienced project managers assess risk

Software development projects, given their diverse and abstract nature, offer unique challenges and risks. Although a substantial body of literature has been written to address project risk management, my experience in the field led me to question whether this literature accurately mirrors the concerns of real-world project managers. To confirm my suspicions, I surveyed 14 experienced application systems developers, all located in Ireland. All survey participants manage custom-built, software-intensive application development projects that originate from external clients. The survey focused on three major areas: (1) Which characteristics of the customer, the application, and so on, do experienced software project managers consider important when planning new development projects for new, external clients? (2) How do these characteristics relate to accepted software project risk drivers? (3) Do most project managers characterize new projects in generally the same way, or do different project managers use different perceptual lenses when viewing new projects? This survey of a homogenous group of project managers revealed a surprising diversity of risk management concerns     

基于CMMI的软件项目风险缓解策略优化模型研究

在基于CMMI的软件工程实践过程中，风险管理被集成在CMMI框架下的第三级，与过程管理融于同一个框架之中。因此，基于CMMI的软件项目风险管理能够得到来自组织的有效信息，使软件开发朝着有规律、可预测的方向发展。本文针对目前基于CMMI的软件项目风险管理尚缺乏有效技术支持的现状，初步探讨了风险响应计划的制定问题，并针对实际提出一种风险缓解策略优化模型，为软件项目管理人员的风险决策提供辅助手段。     

Categorization of risk factors for distributed agile projects

ContextOrganizations combine agile approach and Distributed Software Development (DSD) in order to develop better quality software solutions in lesser time and cost. It helps to reap the benefits of both agile and distributed development but pose significant challenges and risks. Relatively scanty evidence of research on the risks prevailing in distributed agile development (DAD) has motivated this study.ObjectiveThis paper aims at creating a comprehensive set of risk factors that affect the performance of distributed agile development projects and identifies the risk management methods which are frequently used in practice for controlling those risks.MethodThe study is an exploration of practitioners’ experience using constant comparison method for analyzing in-depth interviews of thirteen practitioners and work documents of twenty-eight projects from thirteen different information technology (IT) organizations. The field experience was supported by extensive research literature on risk management in traditional, agile and distributed development.ResultsAnalysis of qualitative data from interviews and project work documents resulted into categorization of forty-five DAD risk factors grouped under five core risk categories. The risk categories were mapped to Leavitt’s model of organizational change for facilitating the implementation of results in real world. The risk factors could be attributed to the conflicting properties of DSD and agile development. Besides that, some new risk factors have been experienced by practitioners and need further exploration as their understanding will help the practitioners to act on time.ConclusionOrganizations are adopting DAD for developing solutions that caters to the changing business needs, while utilizing the global talent. Conflicting properties of DSD and agile approach pose several risks for DAD. This study gives a comprehensive categorization of the risks faced by the practitioners in managing DAD projects and presents frequently used methods to reduce their impact. The work fills the yawning research void in this field.     

The optimization of success probability for software projects using genetic algorithms

The software development process is usually affected by many risk factors that may cause the loss of control and failure, thus which need to be identified and mitigated by project managers. Software development companies are currently improving their process by adopting internationally accepted practices, with the aim of avoiding risks and demonstrating the quality of their work.This paper aims to develop a method to identify which risk factors are more influential in determining project outcome. This method must also propose a cost effective investment of project resources to improve the probability of project success.To achieve these aims, we use the probability of success relative to cost to calculate the efficiency of the probable project outcome. The definition of efficiency used in this paper was proposed by researchers in the field of education. We then use this efficiency as the fitness function in an optimization technique based on genetic algorithms. This method maximizes the success probability output of a prediction model relative to cost.The optimization method was tested with several software risk prediction models that have been developed based on the literature and using data from a survey which collected information from in-house and outsourced software development projects in the Chilean software industry. These models predict the probability of success of a project based on the activities undertaken by the project manager and development team. The results show that the proposed method is very useful to identify those activities needing greater allocation of resources, and which of these will have a higher impact on the projects success probability.Therefore using the measure of efficiency has allowed a modular approach to identify those activities in software development on which to focus the project's limited resources to improve its probability of success. The genetic algorithm and the measure of efficiency presented in this paper permit model independence, in both prediction of success and cost evaluation.     

The effects of optimistic and pessimistic biasing on software project status reporting

Anecdotal evidence suggests that project managers (PMs) sometime provide biased status reports to management. In our research project we surveyed PMs to explore possible motivations for bias, the frequency with which bias occurs, and the strength of the bias typically applied. We found that status reports were biased 60% of the time and that the bias was twice as likely to be optimistic as pessimistic. By applying these results to an information-theoretic model, we estimated that only about 10–15% of biased project status reports were, in fact, accurate and these occurred only when pessimistic bias offset project management status errors. There appeared to be no significant difference in the type or frequency of bias applied to high-risk versus low-risk projects. Our work should provide a better understanding of software project status reporting.     

Monetary pricing of software development risks: A method and empirical illustration

The ability to price (monetize) software development risks can benefit various aspects of software development decision-making. This paper presents a risk pricing method that estimates two parameters for every individual risk factor: extra cost incurred per unit exposure, and project sensitivity, to that factor. Since variability is a widely used measure of risk in finance and decision sciences, the method derives risk pricing parameters by relating variability in risk factors to variability in project cost. This approach rests on the fact that a parametric cost estimator predicts project cost by adjusting the “nominal” cost of a project based on the expected values of risk factors (cost drivers), but the actual project cost often deviates from prediction because the actual values of risk factors normally deviate from expectations. In addition, to illustrate the viability of the method, the paper applies the method empirically with COCOMO data, to approximate risk pricing parameters for four risk factors (Personnel Capability, Process Maturity, Technology Platform, and Application Task). Importantly, though, the method could work equally well with data recorded based on other parametric cost estimators. The paper also discusses several areas that can benefit from benchmark risk pricing parameters of the kind we obtain.     

Managing risks in IT projects: an options perspective

Organizations are making large investments in information technology (IT) projects. However, many are risky and are often considered runaway, because they do not meet original expectations of cost, time, or benefits. Effective management of risks in IT projects is therefore extremely important. This paper emphasizes the need to differentiate between risks that can be resolved by action and risks that require hedging. It presents a framework for understanding and hedging risks in IT projects based on the finance literature on real options. This framework can be used to understand and justify project management decisions. The insight provided by this framework is consistent with practical managerial decisions in IT project management.     

Understanding software project risk: a cluster analysis

Understanding software project risk can help in reducing the incidence of failure. Building on prior work, software project risk was conceptualized along six dimensions. A questionnaire was built and 507 software project managers were surveyed. A cluster analysis was then performed to identify aspects of low, medium, and high risk projects. An examination of risk dimensions across the levels revealed that even low risk projects have a high level of complexity risk. For high risk projects, the risks associated with requirements, planning and control, and the organization become more obvious. The influence of project scope, sourcing practices, and strategic orientation on project risk dimensions was also examined. Results suggested that project scope affects all dimensions of risk, whereas sourcing practices and strategic orientation had a more limited impact. A conceptual model of project risk and performance was presented.     

Choquet integral based aggregation approach to software development risk assessment

Software is a crucial component of today’s business environment, and a superior risk management effort is required to adeptly steer software development projects. Software development risks are inherently dependent, in other words, mutually positive or negative assessments of some risks can influence the decision to accept or reject a project. This fact cannot be modeled with a traditional best compromise seeking method. Aggregation operations based on the family of fuzzy integrals include many operators and thus can express a variety of decision maker behaviors. This study proposes an integrated multi-criteria evaluation methodology for software development experts and managers to better enable them to position their projects in terms of the associated risks. The method relies on a special fuzzy operator, namely a two-additive Choquet integral that enables modeling various effects of importance and interactions among risks. The potential of the proposed methodology is exposed through a case study conducted in a Turkish software company.     

Risk identification and assessment for build–operate–transfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model

In recent years, BOT approach has provided an increasingly popular project financing to move toward infrastructure development in Asian countries such as Iran. There are many complexities in projects because of the variety of factors in project’s trend and also the dependence of project on mainly national factors. Due to these complexities and their long-term operating, the projects meet with uncertainty and numerous risks. In this paper, an attempt is made at identifying common risks in BOT projects. A novel hierarchical structure of risks is presented on the basis of the project-oriented point of view; next, some effective criteria for risk ranking in BOT projects are introduced.Then, the problem is defined in Fuzzy Multi Attribute Decision Making (FMADM) field. Therefore, Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) and Fuzzy Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (FLINMAP) methods are presented in order to rank high risks in BOT projects. In this study, these two methods are compared in four respects: separation among alternatives, fuzzy error in criteria’s weights, risk response planning, and numerousness of alternatives in proportion to criteria. The proposed model is used for identifying and assessing risks in Iran BOT power plant project. Finally, the rankings of high risks are determined according to their results at the end of this paper.     

软件开发外包项目管理案例分析及探索

软件外包是一个非常大的市场,目前在国内有很多软件公司从事软件项目外包行业,或把自己的部分业务发包给外包方,软件项目外包管理随着近年软件项目外包的发展越来越受到重视,它与公司项目的内容管理既关联又存在差异,文章通过对企业实际外包项目的具体案例的风险进行分析,提出了相应的解决方案,并总结了项目实施过程中存在的问题及改进意见,为软件企业的外包项目管理提供了借鉴。     

软件项目风险管理综述

风险在软件开发过程中无处不在,如何控制软件项目中出现的各种风险一直是软件工程领域研究的主要问题之一软件开发过程方法对控制软件风险有积极的作用,RUP、CMM等方法对软件项目风险有着良好的控制能力很多学者都使用不同的方法或技术对软件项目风险进行分析或管理。     

Software maintenance outsourcing: Issues and strategies

Software maintenance outsourcing is becoming a popular alternative in software industry. Software companies are looking at outsourcing their maintenance and support activities as an area for competitive advantage. There are risks and benefits of introducing subcontractors in the framework of software outsourcing. Reliable maintenance is only possible if adequate measures are taken in advance during project’s development and maintenance planning phase and are documented in the maintenance contract. In this paper, we present and make a justification for a set of recommendations to make such maintenance reliable and cost-effective. We analyze the associated risks and propose some product quality metrics to be monitored during the maintenance phase.     

基于CMMI的软件风险管理

大型软件项目在开发过程中经常会伴随一些风险,而这些风险往往会对项目造成不利的影响,因此需要对风险进行管理。在CMMI模型中,在严格定义级给出了一个软件风险管理的过程域,本文介绍的软件风险管理实现就是基于这个规范的。该实现把软件风险管理分成五个步骤：风险识别、风险评估、风险计划、风险跟踪和风险控制,进而对风险进行全面管理。