在边际土地上种植能源作物的综合可行性分析——以甘肃榆中为例

文章以目前正在利用文冠果种植建设新兴绿色能源基地的甘肃省榆中县为研究区,在探讨边际土地内涵及范围界定的基础上,基于2014年土地利用变更调查数据,利用GIS技术对该区域开展文冠果种植的自然适宜性评价,并结合农户调查资料进行能源作物种植的经济可行性分析。结论认为,尽管研究区边际土地总量充足,但受气候、地形等因素影响,适宜文冠果种植的土地面积有限,且在自然和人为双重因素影响下,文冠果种植收益水平较低,在农民种植决策中缺乏比较优势,政府如要继续推进当地文冠果生物柴油产业发展,应对文冠果种植持续补贴。     

能源植物油桐在四川省边际土地种植潜力评价

通过分析油桐生长对自然因素的要求,借助GIS空间分析和多因子综合分析法建立油桐种植潜力评价模型;然后基于气象观测、土壤调查与遥感数据,以四川省边际土地为评价范围,对其进行评估。评价结果表明,油桐适宜和较适宜种植区主要分布在低山丘陵地区,对应的边际土地分别为46.14万和64.12万hm2,其中疏林地和灌木林地占适宜和较适宜土地总面积的99.15%,是油桐开发的重点区域;若这些边际土地按60%的垦殖指数种植油桐,每年收获的桐油可生产大约212万t生物柴油,该结果可为四川未来油桐的开发和规划提供有益参考。     

日本地震对上海能源安全和能源产业的影响分析

日本大地震将会对世界各国的核电发展带来负面影响,同样也会给我国能源发展带来一定的影响。基于上海能源安全和能源产业现状,日本大地震短期内不会对上海的能源安全和能源产业产生明显的影响;但从中长期看,福岛核电站事故的发生,将给上海的新能源产业特别是风力发电设备行业,以及智能电网的发展带来重大机遇。     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

中国能源安全政策演进特征与实践转向——基于能源五年规划的内容分析

能源安全是关系国家经济社会发展的战略性问题,对国家繁荣发展、人民生活改善至关重要。从政策变迁的视角,构建"环境-目标-措施"的分析框架,以"八五"到"十三五"期间的能源五年规划作为分析文本,运用内容分析法,分析了我国能源安全政策变迁,发现了我国能源安全政策用能环境从"内部"到"外部"、安全目标从"单一"到"多元"、保障措施从"节流"到"开源"的演进特征,总结了我国能源安全政策"由内而外"的实践转向,提出了基于社会可接受的价值目标制定能源安全政策,构建能源安全共同体,确保我国能源安全的观点。     

对中国能源问题的思考

本文阐明了能源问题的重要性,指出能源是我国经济社会发展的重要制约因素,事关经济安全和国家安全。从资源、生产、消费以及对环境和经济社会发展影响等方面,分析了世界能源基本状况和发展趋势,并探讨了我国能源发展面临的机遇和挑战。关于中国能源发展的战略思路,是本文论述的重点。文中提出走中国特色新型能源发展道路,主要涵义是:坚持节约高效、多元发展、清洁环保、科技先行、国际合作,努力建设一个利用效率高、技术水平先进、污染排放低、生态环境影响小、供给稳定安全的能源生产流通消费体系。文章阐述了节约优先的长期战略、一次能源的有效开发利用和先进电力系统的发展等内容,展望了未来能源技术的发展前景。同时,还提出实施好能源发展战略,需要进一步完善能源政策,健全体制机制,加强宏观管理,更好地发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用,为经济社会发展提供有力的能源保障。     

能源立法的“帝王原则”是能源安全

<正>中国经济高速发展的同时伴随着环境污染的加剧,雾霾天气、地下水污染等与公众生活息息相关的环境事件频繁发生。从国家层面到公众层面,各方对能源消费与环境保护的关系空前关注。十八大报告重申建设生态文明和美丽中国的迫切要求,使得新一轮能源立法和体制改革呼声渐高,加强     

论中国的能源安全战略

分析了目前中国能源形势及面临的挑战;提出了立足国内是解决能源安全问题的基本思路;并认为通过和平与合作途径,建立稳定可靠的国外能源供应体系,是解决中国能源供应不足的另一战略措施;最后阐述了新的能源安全观。     

能源植物——人类可持续利用的“绿色油田”

能源短缺和环境污染是目前人类社会所面临的巨大挑战，为了维持经济和社会的可持续发展，各国政府正积极开发可再生植物能源。因地制宜利用能源植物，部分取代化石能源，走多能互补、综合利用的道路。促进能源消费结构从单一化向多元化转变，成为目前国际上开发新能源的大趋势，而能源植物的规模应用和推广正是现阶段解决能源替代问题的较佳手段。     

The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China

The paper briefly summarizes China’s energy situation and sustainable development strategy as they were by 2009. The energy consumption in 2009 is reported to be 3.1 billion tons standard coal equivalent, 1/7 of the world total, 6.3% higher than in the year 2008, and its share of world CO₂ emissions increased rapidly to 20.3% in 2006. These trends are most likely to continue with China’s plan to accomplish its social and economy development goals. To address these problems and also respond to increasing world pressure for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the Chinese government plans and has legislated promotion of energy conservation, efficiency, renewable energy technologies and use, and reduction of energy-related environmental impacts to reduce energy intensity by 20% during the 2006-2010 period, and to reduce the CO₂ emission/GDP ratio by 40-45% by 2020 relative to 2005. China is facing severe energy-related challenges that conflict resources shortages with the planned rapid economic development, energy use with the related environmental pollution, and new technology with the old production/consumption patterns. It is recognized that energy development must, however, follow a sustainable path to coordinate economy growth, social development, and environmental protection.     

Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China

We propose in this paper an integrated energy strategy based on a systems approach to address the energy challenges and energy dilemma in China. First, we give a review of existing approaches to energy planning and strategic management, followed by a discussion on the major relationships among energy, economical, environmental and societal systems. Next, we present a conceptual system model with alternative solutions and clarify corresponding concepts. Based on the results, we propose, summarize, and present strategic ideas as policy implications for China’s decision makers. In conclusion, we determine that China should enhance strategic planning and regulation from a life cycle viewpoint of the whole society, prioritize energy saving, continuously improve incumbent energy, and rationally develop alternative energy.     

The energy situation in Bangladesh and a strategy for future development

With the latest increase in the price of oil, Bangladesh will have to spend about 50% of her foreign exchange earnings for meeting about 17% of her total energy need.2 With economic development, the demand for energy will increase. If the present trend of development in the consumption of commercial energy is followed, the balance of payment situation will continue to deteriorate. Therefore, emphasis has been placed on the development of indigenous natural gas as a source of commercial energy. Because Bangladesh is basically an agricultural country and because about 90% of the population live in villages, in 1978–1979 about 65% of the total energy was supplied by traditional energy. Attention has therefore focused on the development of traditional sources of energy, to which little importance has previously been given.     

关注能源安全,促进可持续发展

油价上涨,煤价上涨,电价上涨,生态环境恶化……这些和百姓生活与国家能源安全密切相关的事,在中国人的眼里似乎已经是司空见惯了。尽管老百姓都怨恨涨价,但也只能无奈地接受这个现实。     

解析中国的核能战略

分析了我国发展核电三步走的战略（第一步压水堆核电站,第二步快中子增殖堆电站和第三步核聚变堆电站）及发展核电所需要的铀资源储备（重视国内外的铀资源利用）,进而对核燃料循环中的乏燃料后处理及乏燃料处置分离和嬗变技术（加速器驱动的次临界系统ADS）进行了讨论。     

Profitability of the production of energy grasses on marginal agricultural land in Sweden

The objective of this study was to analyse the economic profitability of producing energy-grass fuels on marginal agricultural land in Sweden. Small and irregular-shaped fields, fields with less fertile soils, headlands and border strips were included, all located in four different regions representing different cultivation conditions. The grasses studied were reed canary grass (RCG) and ley, which were to be used as a solid fuel and biogas substrate, respectively. The economic profitability of these grasses was compared with the profitability of fallow land and the cultivation of winter wheat and spring barley. The results showed that all the alternatives studied, except winter wheat in southern Sweden, had a negative economic net gain (no subsidies included). Generally, the economic losses were greatest for small and irregular-shaped fields. Fallow had a higher economic competitiveness than RCG and ley for all marginal field categories and locations. RCG used as a solid fuel in boilers generally had a higher competitiveness than ley for biogas. However, when ley was used fresh without storage, its competitiveness improved considerably. Taking the direct payment subsidies and the economic value of reduced nutrient leakage into account, the economic net gain improved considerably. Nevertheless, fallow land still had a somewhat higher net gain than RCG for all field categories. Further cost reductions and higher revenues, including possible agro-environmental economic compensation, are required if RCG and ley are to be able to compete with fallow land.     

Diversification and localization of energy systems for sustainable development and energy security

The dominance of a single-energy system inevitably leads to excessive burden on, and eventually weakening, a particular aspect of the environment, and can cause environmental fatigue and failure (permanent damage) or even catastrophe if dominated for too long; thus it inevitably poses the health and environmental risk. This is the case for our currently fossil-fuel-based energy systems. In fact, each energy system, including renewables and alternative fuels, has its own unique adverse impact on the environment, as dictated by the second law of thermodynamics. A truly sustainable development may be achieved with the diversification and localization of energy sources and systems if the adverse impact of each energy system is sufficiently small and well within the tolerance limit of the environment. Energy diversification and localization would also provide a security for the energy supply and distribution as well for the energy consumers—a specifically important issue in the wake of blackout (electric power failure) in the Northeastern states to the Midwest of the United States and part of Canada on August 14, 2003. The idea of diversified energy systems for the good of humanity and environment is similar to many analogies in other fields, such as bio-diversity is the best means to prevent the spread and damage of diseases and pests, and diversified investment is the best strategy to guarantee the overall best investment return. It is concluded that the diversification and localization of energy systems is the best future energy systems that would be environmentally compatible, and allow for sustainable development as well as energy security for both supply and distribution to the energy consumers.     

我国能源发展战略演变及其效果评述

目前我国能源发展战略基本形成以国家能源战略、能源中长期规划纲要以及能源五年计划三个层次为主的能源战略体系和以规划为主导、相关政策和文件为辅助的政策体系。2000年以来,能源发展战略历经了以结构调整为重点、以节约能源为重点以及之后结构调整和区域协调并重三个阶段。由于缺乏国家综合能源战略,政策执行力弱,导致能源决策和规划思想相对滞后、发展思路相对狭隘。就此提出了我国能源战略管理体系的设想与建议。     

New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security?

The aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which the construction of new nuclear power plants in the UK can safeguard or enhance energy security. The paper starts with a discussion of energy security, and breaks it down into four main categories of threat. These include threats due to fossil fuel scarcity and external disruptions, problems due to a lack of investment in infrastructure, threats due to technology or infrastructure failure, and risks due to domestic activism or terrorism. The paper then discusses one of the most common strategies put forward to improve security—the promotion of diversity within energy systems. Following this, the paper assesses the potential for new nuclear investment to ameliorate security threats in each of the four categories introduced earlier in the paper. The paper concludes that whilst nuclear investment can help to mitigate some threats to UK energy security, the government's case for supporting this investment ignores some equally important security issues. As a result, the energy security case for nuclear power has not yet been made.     

Strategic oil stockpiling for energy security: The case of China and India

Compared with the developed countries, the developing countries could be more vulnerable to oil supply disruptions due to their lack of strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs). Several developing countries, including China and India, are establishing their SPRs to ensure energy security. In the common world oil market, one country's SPR decisions can be affected by the decisions of other countries. This paper investigates the SPR policies of China and India, two of the largest developing countries, in a game-theoretic framework, where the interactions between the two countries are taken into account. The results show that players' equilibrium stockpiling strategies and total expected costs could vary significantly with the initial oil market state, stockpile acquisition capacity and the probabilities for disruptions to persist.