基于Logistic 回归模型的建材业上市公司财务预警研究

在当前房地产调控政策下,我国建材业上市公司面临着巨大的财务危机。论文对24 家建材业上市公司2009 年、2008 年的财务指标进行了基于Logistic 回归模型的财务预警实证分析,并利用上述模型及2010 年的财务数据对样本公司2011 年的财务状况进行了预测,继而给出了财务风险应对策略,以期我国建材业上市公司能够走出财务困境,走上健康发展的道路。     

Logistic回归模型多重共线性诊断及在医学中的应用

介绍医学研究中适用的几种诊断Logistic回归模型共线性的方法,并进行拟合分析,结果表明,诊断方法确能有效发现自变量观察矩阵之间的多重共线性,便于医学研究者正确合理地建立Logistic回归模型,提高结果的可靠性。     

南京市入境游客旅游景点的选择分析——基于多元Logistic回归模型

本文利用南京市近500名外籍游客的调查数据,将游客喜爱偏好的旅游景点分为自然风景类、历史纪念类、都市消费类等三类,选取6项指标建立多元Logistic回归模型,分析了南京市境外游客入境旅游景点的选择,结果表明选择历史纪念类景点的游客占游客总数的53.0%,南京大屠杀纪念馆、明孝陵、中山陵等景点特别受境外游客的欢迎。本文通过所建立的模型为自助游前来的境外游客在选择旅游景点时提供一点有用的建议。     

基于Logistic回归的中国上市公司信用风险判定研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,筛选了40家上市公司作为研究样本,构建了基于15个财务指标的Logistic回归模型,进而对我国上市公司的信用风险进行预测分析。结果表明:模型具有良好的预测效果,预测准确率达到85%,可以较好地为上市公司进行风险预警。     

封开县农村手足口病家庭聚集性因素的Logistic回归分析

目的:了解封开县农村手足口病(HFMD)家庭聚集性感染影响因素,为制定手足口病防控策略提供科学依据。方法:采用病例对照研究设计方法,随机选取2013年1月-2014年12月于笔者所在单位诊治的5岁以下农村手足口病患儿214例作为研究对象,分为病例组和对照组,每组107例。两组均应用自制的调查问卷进行调查,收集数据采用SPSS 13.0软件进行单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析。结果:多因素Logistic回归模型显示,监护人教育程度低、有发热、有皮疹、有接触患儿、有吮咬手指、饭前便后不洗手、院内存在堆积粪便和人均居住面积小是农村手足口病家庭聚集性的主要危险因素。结论:不良生活习惯和居住环境差是本农村地区5岁以下手足口病家庭聚集性的主要危险因素。     

基于Logistic回归的社会单位消防安全管理水平分析

针对不同高度建筑及重点监管场所需实施不同等级防火监管措施的问题,提出基于无序多分类Logistic回归模型的防火安全管理水平分析策略。对低层/多层建筑、高层建筑和超高层建筑分别进行定性分析,然后通过R语言建立无序多分类Logistic回归模型进行定量分析。考虑到人员密集场所有必要给予重点分析,归纳总结了各类人员密集场所并对其建立回归模型进行防火监管水平分析。最后,对所有建筑样本的综合管理水平进行Logistic回归分析,进而给出有针对性的管理措施和建议。     

基于Logistic模型对心血管疾病风险的预测

针对国家统计局已公布的循环系统疾病相关数据和中国健康与营养调查数据,分析我国人群近年来心血管疾病(CVD)患病情况的变化总趋势,将年龄、体重指数(BMI)、吸烟情况、饮酒情况、血压、血糖以及血脂状况7个因素纳入二项Logistic回归模型,选取影响显著的因素建立回归方程,并根据模型得到各因素对发病情况的影响程度。利用该模型的回归结果可以预测我国男性、女性心血管疾病的发病风险,为广大群众进行自我诊断、尽早防治心血管疾病提供一定帮助。     

基于Logistic模型的商业银行个人消费信贷风险评估研究

在消费者"贷款消费"意识不断增强的今天,伴随而来的风险问题也不断显现出来,特别是个人信用风险首当其冲。基于商业银行个人消费信贷的实际操作数据和Logistic回归模型,利用SPSS17.0统计软件构建个人信用评分模型。通过实证,测得借款人的年龄、婚姻状况、受教育程度等六项指标是影响个人信用风险的关键因素。最后,提出了防范个人消费贷款风险的相关建议。     

广宁地区非酒精性脂肪肝相关危险因素的Logistic回归分析

目的:探讨广宁地区非酒精性脂肪肝(NAFLD)的患病情况及相关危险因素,为NAFLD的防治提供科学依据。方法:随机选取2014年1月-2015年8月于本院门诊体检经B超确诊的NAFLD患者228例作为病例组,另择同期体检健康人员228例作为对照组,比较两组肥胖、血压、肝功能、血脂及空腹血糖(FPG)水平,并对其相关危险因素进行多因素Logistic回归分析。结果:NAFLD检出率为19.0%;病例组体重指数(BMI)、腰臀围比(WHR)、收缩压(SBP)、舒张压(DBP)、谷丙转氨酶(ALT)、谷草转氨酶(AST)、总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)、低密度脂蛋白(LDL-C)均高于对照组,高密度脂蛋白(HDL-C)低于对照组,比较差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);多因素Logistic回归分析显示,BMI、WHR、SBP、DBP、TC、TG、LDL-C是NAFLD的独立危险因素,HDL-C是其保护因素。结论:肥胖、高血压和血脂紊乱是本地区人群NAFLD三大独立危险因素,应开展定期临床检查,改变人们不良生活习惯,是降低非酒精性脂肪肝发病率的重要途径。     

基于Logistic回归青少年心理的风险评估及预警研究

近年来,青少年校园霸凌事件时有发生。本文主要针对霸凌事件背后的青少年心理问题的风险进行了研究,结合相关数据,使用TOPSIS法进行心理问题风险状况分析;利用Logistic回归建立了青少年心理问题风险的预警机制。运用MATLAB、EXCEL等软件求解,得出了不同年龄段的青少年心理问题风险的现状,并建立了青少年心理问题风险预警机制,给出不同年龄段降低青少年心理问题风险的方案。     

鱼山渔场披山海域虾类群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

为分析鱼山渔场披山海域虾类种类组成、优势种、生物多样性等群落结构特征,根据2015年11月、2016年2月、5月、8月在鱼山渔场披山海域进行底拖网生物资源调查所获得的15个站位资料,定量分析了其群落结构的相似性,以及群落结构与水文环境因子间的关系。结果表明:本次调查共鉴定出虾类15种,隶属于8科11属,其中优势种为脊尾白虾Exopalaemon carinicauda、哈氏仿对虾Parapenaeopsis hardwickii、中华管鞭虾Solenocera crassicornis、细巧仿对虾Parapenaeopsis tenella、中国毛虾Acetes chinensis、葛氏长臂虾Palaemon gravieri和日本鼓虾Alpheus juponicus共7种;不同季节的虾类种类组成差异较大,优势种类组成变化较大,其中以秋季的虾类种类数最多,冬季最少;优势种种类数春季最多,冬季最少;不同季节渔获种类的水深分布有较大差异,虾类种类以5~10 m水深带分布较多,小于5 m水深带较少;多样性指数冬季低于其他季节,其中小于5 m水深带较高,10~15 m水深带较低,虾类多样性指数随水深的增加呈递减趋势。研究表明,水深、底层水温、表层盐度、底层盐度和化学需氧量是影响调查海域虾类种类组成和群落结构特征的主要环境因子。     

西非近海真鲷生物学特征的初步研究

为了研究西非近海海域真鲷Pagrosomus major的基础生物学特性,对2014年5—8月西非近海海域(7°E~11°E、1°S~5°S)3个航次采集的738尾真鲷样本进行了分析。结果表明:第一航次真鲷体长范围为70~272 mm,平均体长为166 mm,第二航次体长范围为85~275 mm,平均体长为178 mm,第三航次体长范围为103~231 mm,平均体长为155 mm,3个航次真鲷样本的体长组成无显著性差异(F=1.94,P>0.05);体长与体质量关系表明,雌性生长速度快于雄性;渔获物中性别组成接近1∶1;雌性个体以性腺成熟度Ⅱ、Ⅲ期为主,对应的优势体长分别为130~150、150~170 mm,不同性腺成熟度雌性个体间有显著性差异(P<0.05);雄性个体以性腺成熟度Ⅱ期为主,对应的优势体长分别为110~130、150~170mm,不同性腺成熟度的雄性个体间也存在显著性差异(P<0.05);胃含物摄食等级以2、3级为主,占整个渔获物样本的71%;不同摄食等级的个体体质量间有显著性差异(F=21.747,P<0.05)。     

Relationships between microbial water quality and environmental conditions in coastal recreational waters: the Fylde coast, UK.

This paper explores ways in which the analysis of microbial data from routine compliance monitoring, in combination with basic environmental data, can provide insight into the factors affecting faecal-indicator organism concentrations in coastal waters. In the case study presented, eight designated bathing waters on the Fylde coast are continuing to exhibit unreliable compliance with the Imperative standards for total coliform (TC) and faecal coliform (FC) concentrations specified in the EU Bathing Water Directive (76/160/EEC), despite significant reductions in geometric mean concentrations following recent major investment in the sewerage infrastructure. Faecal streptococci (FS) concentrations have remained high and have not been improved by the new sewerage schemes. The results suggest that, prior to the schemes, higher bacterial concentrations were strongly associated with rainfall; and sewage sources were important for TC and FC, but less important for FS, which may have been more strongly affected by diffuse catchment sources. In the post-schemes period, catchment sources appear to be of greater significance; rainfall remains as a significant, though less important, predictor; and tide height at time of sampling, together with variables such as sunshine and the proportion of onshore winds (which affect the survival and movement of bacteria that have already entered the coastal waters), assume greater significance. The approach used here provides a cost-effective management tool for the exploratory investigation of any monitoring point that is failing to meet recreational water quality standards.     

Quantile regression on the nonlinear relationship between land use and trip time

This study conceptually confirms and empirically tests the potential that the significance and magnitude of the compact land use–trip time relationship differ by the degree of compactness and trip time. Based on a quantile regression of about 25,000 commuters in Seoul, Korea, the empirical analysis suggests a significant level for each neighbourhood land use variable and a magnitude change within the level. Weekend trip and school densities are significant for shorter trip time commuters, population density is significant for longer trip time commuters, and pedestrian density is significant for all commuters. Wherever significant, the land use variables exert stronger effects as their values increase.     

Relationship between macroinvertebrate fauna and environmental variables in small streams of the Dominican Republic

Field assessment methods for freshwater macroinvertebrates and water quality in tropical small-island states were assessed in the Dominican Republic. Macroinvertebrate samples were collected from 26 river sites within the Dominican Republic's Yaque del Norte river catchment. Environmental data on geographical, physical and chemical variables were also collected from each site. The Biological Monitoring Working Party score and total numbers of Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera were calculated for each site. Physico-chemical and biological data sets were ordinated by principal components analysis and non-parametric multi-dimensional scaling, and the biotic and abiotic data sets were correlated to determine the most influential factors determining site similarities. Macroinvertebrate assemblage structure was correlated with declining water quality: however, a high correlation between water quality and altitude confounded an unqualified interpretation of impairment.     

The relationship between selected socioeconomic variables and measures of arson: A cross-sectional study

This article examines the relationship between arson and selected sociological factors. Factor analysis was applied to 14 socioeconomic factors to produce the composite factors of social climate, income structure, economic climate and social structure. These four sociological factors were used as the independent variables in a series of multiple regressions with five arson-related measures. Statistically significant regression models were determined at the state level for property loss (total fires), number of fires and number of arsons. Findings indicate that poorer, more rural states have the lowest arson rates while arson is greatest in more urban states with correspondingly higher levels of violent crime. Social structures leading to criminal activity rather than poverty or general economic factors appear most related to arson in a given state. Reference: Joe H. Murrey, Jr., Robert E. Pitts, Dani A. Smith and Kenneth W. Hollman, The Relationship Between Selected Socioeconomic Variables and Measures of Arson: A Cross-Sectional Study,Fire Technology, Vol. 23, No. 1, February 1987, p. 60.     

Comparative study of the physico-chemical parameters of the coastal waters in rivers Matla and Saptamukhi: Impacts of coastal water coastal pollution

A qualitative and quantitative research has been performed on the physico-chemical parameters of the neighboring coastal waters of the rivers Matla and Saptamukhi in the Sunderban district, West Bengal. The distribution pattern of eight physico-chemical parameters, namely pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, suspended solids, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (inorganic and total) has been graphed and compared for the two rivers over a time period of ten years (??90s decade). A statistical analysis has been carried out and the correlation data between these parameters has been rationalized based on both natural and man-made activities during that time. This has pointed to various causes behind coastal pollution of river waters. The changes in water quality have been related to flood impacts, storm surge, eutrophication, domestic sewage, agricultural and industrial wastes. In order to avoid coastal degradation and maintain environmental balance, it is very important to understand the impact of these parameters on coastal zones.     

基于GAM模型研究时空及环境因子对南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场的影响

长鳍金枪鱼Thunnus alalung是南太平洋金枪鱼延绳钓渔业的主要捕获鱼种之一,为了开展对南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场时空分布及其与海洋环境关系的研究,根据2009—2012年南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼延绳钓生产统计数据及遥感获取的海表温度(SST)、叶绿素a浓度(Chl-a)和海面高度距平(SSHA)等环境数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)分析了长鳍金枪鱼渔场分布及与时空、环境因子的关系。结果表明:GAM模型对长鳍金枪鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)总偏差解释率为11.34%,其中贡献最大的为时间(周),贡献率为6.35%;该渔场全年均可作业,5—7月CPUE值高于1—3月和10—12月,其中5月中旬—7月下旬为鱼汛盛期;长鳍金枪鱼渔场主要分布在10°S~30°S、162°E~174°E的海域范围内;中心渔场最适SST范围为26.0~29.5℃,最适Chl-a浓度范围为0.02~0.05 mg/m~3,最适SSHA范围为0~20 cm。研究表明,影响渔场的因子按重要性从大到小依次为时间(周)、纬度、SST、经度、SSHA和Chl-a。     

獐子岛海域浮游植物群落周年变化及其与环境因子的关系

为了解獐子岛海域扇贝底播养殖区浮游植物群落的周年变化特征,于2011—2012年对该水域浮游植物及其理化环境进行了12个航次的逐月调查。结果表明:利用采水样品的Utermhl倒置显微镜分析方法,共鉴定出浮游植物53属119种,夏、秋季物种组成以甲藻和金藻为主,冬、春季以硅藻为主,裸藻、甲藻次之;各月平均细胞丰度变化为(17~312)×103cells/L,年平均为77×103cells/L,在春季(3、4月)和秋季(9、10、11月)出现两个丰度高峰;物种多样性程度在秋季较好,具槽帕拉藻Paralia sulcata、柔弱几内亚藻Guinardia delicatula、太平洋海链藻Thalassiosira pacifica等硅藻物种在全年保持优势,梭状角藻Ceratium fusus、小等刺硅鞭藻Dictyocha fibula、运动异双鞭藻Eutreptiella gymnastica分别在夏、秋、春季形成优势;物种分布与环境因子的典范对应分析和冗余分析显示,水温和溶解氧是调查区浮游植物群落周年变化的关键驱动因素,溶解态无机N、P营养盐对细胞的丰度分布、优势种演替亦有明显的控制作用。研究表明:獐子岛海域浮游植物饵料丰富、丰度水平稳定,适宜扇贝生长和可持续的底播养殖;具槽帕拉藻、太平洋海链藻、梭状角藻等物种皆可以作为养殖区的饵料指示种。     

Lack of correlation between enterococcal counts and the presence of human specific fecal markers in Mississippi creek and coastal waters

The objective of this study was to determine whether statistically valid correlations could be shown between enterococcal counts of samples from creek and coastal sites and the presence of two molecular, library-independent markers that specify human and/or sewage pollution. Four hundred ninety samples were collected between August 2007 and April 2009 to determine enterococcal counts and the presence of genetic markers for the sewage indicator organisms Methanobrevibacter smithii and Bacteroidales. The presence of human/sewage markers and enterococcal counts were higher in creek samples than coastal samples, but the higher creek levels did not statistically correlate with the either enterococcal count or the presence of the markers present in coastal samples. Furthermore, there was no correlation between enterococcal counts in coastal samples and either marker at any of the beach sites tested. The results of this investigation in Mississippi coastal waters suggest that human/sewage markers are unlikely to correlate with enterococci counts in the nearshore environment and that enterococcal counts may be indicative of other animal or environmental sources. Additionally, a study comparing conventional gel electrophoresis with capillary electrophoresis did not convincingly establish that one method was better than the other in regard to the results obtained. The capillary method does allow reproducibility of results and the ability to analyze multiple samples in a short period of time; however, the operational expenditures exceed the cost of traditional gel electrophoresis.