风险管理与项目管理的整合方法

风险管理贯穿项目管理的各个阶段和各个领域。风险管理与项目管理的内在关系体现在项目目标、项目计划和项目管理内容等方面,决定了两者整合的必要性和可行性。风险管理与项目管理的整合包括组织整合、技术整合和流程整合三方面,使风险管理过程得到有效实施。     

气候变化健康风险的城市空间影响及规划干预

气候变化通过多种途径威胁城市居民的健康,导致突发致命风险、慢性非传染病风险、传染病风险和心理健康风险等4种类型的健康风险。城市空间要素对于气候变化导致的居民健康风险起着重要影响作用,本文建立"气候变化-空间要素-健康风险"关系框架,提出规划理念应从规划目标和服务主体方面积极转变,以应对气候变化导致的居民健康风险,进一步提出积极开展气候变化健康风险评估,并在总体规划、专项规划和详细规划阶段将健康风险评估融入国土空间规划体系的具体建议。     

堤防失事风险分析和风险管理研究

基于堤防渗透破坏和岸坡滑动失稳风险的数学模型，提出了场地砂土地震液化和堤防失事综合风险分析的数学模型，以及堤防风险管理的概念；以南京市板桥河左岸堤防加固工程为例，应用风险分析理论和方法对该段堤防渗透破坏风险、岸坡滑动失稳风险、场地砂土地震液化风险以及堤防失事综合风险进行了分析研究；通过1995年板桥河左岸堤防典型破圩实例建立整个板桥河堤防渗透破坏风险率监界值、岸坡滑动失稳风险率临界值以及堤防失事综合风险率临界值；同时基于风险分析的结果和所建立的风险率临界值，根据风险管理的理论，针对板桥河左岸堤防加固工程提出降低风险的措施，对堤防汛期洪水位运行管理提出建议。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。     

分层分析风险评价法在高层钢结构工程风险管理中的应用

风险管理可总结为对建设工程潜在的意外损失风险因素进行辨识、分析和评估,并根据具体情况采取相应措施进行处理,从而避免或减少损失事故发生的过程。与风险管理相关的概念有风险因素、风险事件和损失,其与风险的关系如图1所示。     

The water‐energy nexus: future water resource availability and its implications on UK thermal power generation

An increasing population coupled with the uncertain, but increasingly likely, impacts of climate change have led to a heightened level of global academic attention to the interdependencies that exist between the water and energy infrastructure networks. However, to date there has been limited research considering the water‐energy nexus within a UK context. This article reviews the global and national literature to identify how a future lack of available water resource will impact upon the UK thermal power generation fleet, both in terms of freshwater resource and environmental constraints. It concludes that a combination of freshwater resource management and adaptation to use alternative water sources will be key in mitigating and adapting to climate impacts.     

DOMESTIC CONSUMER PERCEPTIONS OF THE LEGITIMACY OF WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT OPTIONS: A CASE STUDY OF THE RIVER NENE CATCHMENT, UK.

Article 14 of the Water Framework Directive requires member states to demonstrate that they are enabling increased public participation in water governance issues at the river basin level. Yet little research has been conducted to understand in what regard water governance bodies are held by the public. In particular, few studies have concentrated on which water resource management issues concern consumers at the catchment and sub-catchment scale within England and Wales. A household study was conducted in 2003 along the River Nene catchment in the east of England to understand in more detail the range of these consumer perceptions and attitudes at different spatial scales, focusing on water resource management issues such as flooding, sector performance and policy making. The results of the survey demonstrate that formulating policy at the catchment scale does not always capture the diversity of opinion or the range of legitimacy issues which concern consumers at the sub-catchment level. The paper concludes that public participation initiatives may be improved by paying closer attention to the various legitimacy concerns at the catchment and sub-catchment scales.     

ENVIRONMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS: A DEMAND MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE

This paper examines water management within the environment. It argues that discussion of, and decision-making governing, the allocation of water for the environment should be expanded to consider the application of demand management to the environment. The paper examines the technical feasibility of this aspect and proposes some principles which address parity across water-use sectors in terms of their water rights, responsibilities and performance objectives. It concludes that a more equitable policy framework encourages better resource analysis and promotes better informed trade-offs and management concerning water allocation, particularly in times of low water availability.     

USE OF GROUNDWATER AGE INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT TO AID WATER SUPPLY OPERATIONAL PLANNING

Groundwater residence-time survey results on 21 public water supplies in the chalk aquifer in southern England are compared with a previous Cryptosporidium risk assessment which was carried out on the same supplies for regulatory-compliance purposes in 1999. The results indicate that residence-time indicators could provide useful corroborative evidence for rapid recharge hazard - not only in those settings already identified by microbiological surveillance, but also in the more difficult-to-identify situation where potential rapid pathways have been identified but the bacteriological indicators are negative or ambiguous. However, groundwater-mixing processes under pumping conditions are complex, especially in the chalk, and will always require interpretation informed by an understanding of the local hydrogeological and operational setting.     

油气处理终端山体滑坡风险评估及治理措施研究

某陆上油气终端处理厂作为海洋石油开采过程中的重要组成部分,计划在温州洞头县新建,终端场地为原采石场开挖后所形成,由于人工开挖,终端场地一侧为梯形开挖山体,山体表面情况复杂,滑坡风险大,通过采用边坡稳定性分析工具对山体滑坡风险进行分析,并结合滑坡灾害破坏机理对滑坡后的破坏范围和程度进行了分析研究,在此基础上提出了相应的治理措施和建议。风险评估技术路线可以应用于类似工程施工山体滑坡风险评估和治理项目中,进而有效控制山体滑坡风险。     

底板突水危险性评价专家系统及应用研究

 矿井底板突水危险性评价涉及到水文地质、工程地质、开采条件及岩石力学等诸多因素,是一个复杂的理论与技术问题,底板突水危险性评价专家系统正是针对这一难点,将底板突水领域专家经验和理论成果等与计算机人工智能技术相结合,采用突水系数法和突水优势面两条推理途径,提出并运用典型突水案例加权类比的推理策略,初步具备了底板灰岩岩溶发育状况与隐伏断裂构造的预测功能。系统建立内容较为丰富的典型突水案例、专家经验、突水研究理论成果和防治水措施等四类知识库,能够对矿井是否会发生底板突水、突水点位置以及突水类型等做出预测与评价,并具有较强的咨询功能。应用该系统进行实际突水案例的模拟分析,评价结果与实际情况吻合较好。底板突水危险性评价专家系统将对矿井底板水害防治具有一定的实用价值。     

AN INEXACT TWO-STAGE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

An inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model is proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model is a hybrid of inexact optimization and two-stage stochastic programming. It can reflect not only uncertainties expressed as probability distributions but also those being available as intervals. The solution meth od for ITSP is computationally effective, which makes it applicable to practical problems. The ITSP is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources system operation. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They are further analyzed and interpreted for generating decision alternatives and identifying significant factors that affect the system's performance. The information obtained through these post-optimality analyses can provide useful decision support for water managers.     

A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part I: methodology

Extreme rainfall events that are occurring more frequently as an effect of climate change and variability are causing increasing damages to municipal infrastructure. A methodology is developed to quantify the risk to municipal infrastructure from climate change-related flooding. The risk is measured using a combination of flow/frequency, stage/damage and damage/frequency curves. The measure of risk is termed the Risk Index and calculated for each infrastructure element within a municipality. The risk is aggregated and summed by spatial unit and presented in the form of risk tables and maps. The risk index takes into account both quantitative and qualitative information obtained from research and interviews with technical experts. The results from the application of the methodology to a municipality will lead to better policy and informed decision making.     

A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part II: case study

Flooding often has devastating consequences. It is important to understand the evolution of these risks as climate changes. Municipal infrastructure is designed using historical data that no longer accurately represents current climate conditions, indicating infrastructure may underperform. The purpose of this study is to apply a new methodology for the assessment of climate change caused flood risk by Bowering et al. (2013) to the City of London, Ontario, Canada. Floodplain maps derived from climate, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses provide direct input into risk assessment procedure. Inundated infrastructure and high risk areas are identified in tables and maps for two climate and two hydraulic scenarios. Results indicate the most critical flood scenario is the 100 year climate change upper bound and high risk is driven by expensive infrastructure located in the floodplains. Results of the study are used as the support for climate change adaptation policy development and emergency management.     

市政给排水工程规划与实施管理的CAD技术

讨论CAD技术在市政给排水工程规划与实施管理中的作用、应用现状,展望其发展趋势和研究开发热点,提出了现阶段市政给排水工程CAD软件开发、应用的一些建议。     

The impact of climate change on reservoir water quality and water treatment plant operations: a UK case study

A simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into ‘real world’ impacts. Its application is demonstrated in this study to assess the impacts of climate change on the reservoir water quality and water treatment plant (WTP) operations at Grafham Water in the east of England. The primary aim is to provide WTP operators with knowledge of the potential impacts and associated probabilities of occurrence of climate change, enabling them to make informed, risk‐based adaptation and planning decisions. Using a series of coupled hydrological and water‐quality models, it is likely that there will be a decline in average reservoir water quality. Climate change will also have an impact on WTP operations, but these will be manageable within the current operational parameters.     

某大型项目地质灾害危险性评估与建议

地质灾害危险性评估是国家针对工程建设项目强制执行的条款,在一些地质灾害易发区合理避开地质灾害的威胁起到了重要的作用。本文以山西省阳城县阳泰转型产业集聚区建设项目为例,介绍了区域内地质灾害危险性评估的主要内容和方法,调查研究了评估区的地质环境条件、水文地质条件及工程地质条件,对地质灾害危险性进行了现状和预测评估,评估级别确定为一级。     

岩溶隧道突水风险评价理论与方法及工程应用

 考虑地下工程地质条件的复杂性和风险本身的不确定性,以属性数学理论为基础,提出一种可实现定量评价的属性区间评价理论与方法,其核心在于风险指标的取值是一个区间,并提出适用于该理论的综合属性测度分析和属性识别分析方法,结合工程实例给出属性识别分析方法的采用原则。选取岩溶突涌水灾害的7个主要影响因素,构成突水风险评价的指标体系,建立相应的风险评价模型,并采用综合赋权法进行突水风险指标的权重分析。针对某一隧道段落的突涌水风险,采用建立的评价模型进行计算分析,并与现场情况和属性数学模型的评估结果作对比,验证该理论与方法的合理性及可行性,为地下工程灾害风险定量评价提供一种有效的方法和途径。     

Towards risk‐based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate

The publication of the UKCP09 climate change projections for the United Kingdom provides the opportunity for more rigorous inclusion of climate change uncertainty in water resources planning. We set out how the current approach to incorporating climate change and other uncertainties in water resources planning may be updated to incorporate the UKCP09 projections. In an uncertain future, the frequency with which customers will experience water shortages cannot be predicted for sure, so a water company cannot predict definitely whether it will or will not fulfil its Level of Service commitments. We therefore go on to propose that the probability of failing to meet Level of Service (for given populations of customers) provides an appropriate metric of risk, which conveniently summarises the uncertainties associated with supply and demand, including climate change uncertainties. We sketch out how this risk metric can be calculated based upon simulation modelling of the water resource system.     

基于功–能关系的滑坡典型受灾体易损性评估模型

 针对目前滑坡灾害受灾体易损性评估定量化程度不高的现状,以典型受灾体(框架结构)为例,对易损性定量评估方法进行初步探讨。通过分析滑体对受灾体(框架结构)的冲击破坏过程,认为在滑体冲击受灾体过程中冲击力做功使冲击能逐步转化为受灾体变形能。由于出现不可恢复的塑性变形,变形能逐步耗散,而导致受灾体发生毁损,直至倒塌。将受灾体倒塌时所耗散的变形能作为抗灾性能指标,滑体冲击能作为致灾强度指标,建立起反映受灾体毁损程度与致灾强度和抗灾性能的定量函数关系。基于这一函数关系,采用能量法计算滑速,从而建立简化情况下滑坡受灾体易损性定量评估模型。该模型可反映致灾强度因素和抗灾性能因素及不确定性对易损性的影响。     

给水管网模拟显示屏及水闸微机管理系统研究

对给水管网模拟显示屏和水闸微机管理系统进行了研究，根据ＦＯＸＰＲＯ系统建立了管网图形与数据库，编制了数据库管理与管网分析程序，实践证明，该系统功能安全，实用性强，是给水管网管理的有力工具。