Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market

This paper has the objective of improving on the issue of forecasting new housing construction, and highlights differences between space demand and investment demand in housing markets. Further, it indicates how these differences will affect construction decisions. The first step is to identify the factors associated with estimating residential property prices in Hong Kong, based on a demand-supply adjustment process. Specifically, this study examines the role of population growth, transaction volume, inflation and interest rate in determining house prices. Second, based on these estimations, a methodology is developed to estimate the investment demand schedule and new construction of residential property.     

Private sheltered housing in the Netherlands and Great Britain

Survey commissioned by the Humanistische Stichting Huisvesting voor Bejaarden (HSHB) in 1989. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the XIIth World Congress of Sociology, 9–13 July 1990 in Madrid, Spain.     

Meeting the demand for affordable housing: State intervention in Massachusetts

This paper examines the response of Massachusetts to problems of housing affordability during the 1980s. State and local government historically has not played a major role in housing provision within the United States of America, constrained by fiscal dependence upon the federal government and by a lack of control over the more significant determinants of housing market performance. In the face of intensified problems of housing affordability and cutbacks in federal expenditures on low income housing programmes, the majority of US states increased their intervention in housing markets during the 1980s. Massachusetts more than doubled in real terms expenditures on housing and community development over the decade, initiating a variety of innovative programmes aimed at alleviating housing stress and stimulating the construction of affordable housing. The paper examines the impacts of these housing programmes upon problems of housing affordability, and assesses their likely durability in the context of the slow‐down in the Massachusetts economy in the 1990s. The increase in Massachusetts housing expenditures was a response to a local political economy of growth, rather than any fundamental dilution of the political and economic relations that limit the ability of states to shape housing market dynamics in the United States.     

The social use of market processes in British and Hungarian housing policies

The switch of state subsidies away from support for public housing investment and towards an intensification of market processes is no longer the prerogative of Western countries, but, in the 1980s, has also become a feature of some state socialist societies. However, given the contrasting social, political and economic character of these societies, does the apparently similar process of privatisation in fact have the same characteristics, meaning and social consequences?

In this paper Britain and Hungary have been chosen as countries representative of the two social systems and in which market processes have intensified. The comparison begins by examining the social meaning of'owning’ and ‘renting’, the historical context of the development of housing policy, the allocation systems, rents, and subsidies. Focusing on the social housing sector the paper contrasts current housing issues. Particular attention is given to the “Right to Buy” policy which is a common feature in the 1980s of housing policy in both countries.

As a result of their mainly empirical comparison the authors conclude that privatisation in Britain and Hungary occurred in housing systems which have been similar in their tenure structure but very different in historical context. Because the broad social‐political context of privatisation is different, particularly the economic and institutional interests rooted within this issue, it is not inevitable that the regressive social consequences of measures which promote the privatisation process (which are common to both countries) are automatically negative in terms of the general sociological assessment.Thus comparison can help in the preparation of policy options and the assessment of new possibilities, but only as background. Strategies should be evaluated primarily against the social‐political context of each country and against the current policy objectives.     

Changing directions in Australian housing policies: The end of muddling through?

From the post‐war period through to the 1980s, Australia's housing system was dominated by tenure‐based policies directed towards home ownership and the provision of public housing. Private tenants were virtually excluded from housing assistance of any form. The 1990s, however, have seen an apparent U‐turn in housing policies with elimination of explicit home ownership policies, the withdrawal from direct involvement in public housing funding and a rapid expansion of rental assistance for private tenants. Australia is about to follow its New Zealand neighbour in undertaking a wholesale shift away from direct intervention in the production of housing and moving towards consumer subsidies which rely on the effective operation of the private sector in meeting housing needs. This paper provides a brief overview of changes in policies towards home ownership, public rental and private rental, a framework for interpreting these and an assessment of the appropriateness of the directions currently being followed in light of current economic trends.     

Land supply and housing development: A comparative analysis of Britain and the Netherlands 1970–95

This article examines the relationship between land supply and housing development in Britain and The Netherlands, two countries conventionally perceived to be very different in this respect. The article forwards a dual approach to analysis. The first is focused on fundamental differences. These are elaborated in terms of demographic factors, political process and physical land conditions. The second approach expands on a framework devised by Needham & Lie (1994), which is adapted here for the analysis of land policy over time. The article examines the complex nature of land policy in both countries. It thereby highlights the difficulties in providing a robust analytical framework capable of bridging comparison over time and of concluding on the extent of policy convergence.     

大庆市住宅市场供求关系分析

供求关系影响着市场,通过对房地产市场供求关系的分析,有助于政府部门对房地产市场采取调控措施,使房地产业健康发展。基于我国房地产市场总体处于供求失衡背景下,采用主成分分析法,对大庆市住宅市场供求关系进行了分析。结果表明,大庆市当前住宅市场需求情况不容乐观,市场中供大于求现象明显。     

Development niches and specialist housebuilders: An overview of private sheltered housing in Britain

This paper considers the extent to which the provision of sheltered housing for sale has created a new and buoyant market niche for housebuilders during the 1980s. Focusing on the rapid growth in the numbers of elderly home owners, the increasing equity value of their existing homes and improved savings and pensions arrangements, the market has been targeted at a group of relatively affluent and independent elderly. Sophisticated targeting and marketing of such developments has become the prerogative of specialist divisions of major housebuilding companies, and a number of companies exclusively concerned with the retirement homes market, with McCarthy and Stone and Anglia Secure Homes providing the empirical base for the current paper. After considering the growth and maturing of the retirement homes market, the paper concludes with some speculation on the sustainability of this market niche, within the context of current recessionary processes in the wider housing market.     

洛惠渠灌区水量供需平衡分析

介绍了洛惠渠灌区的历年供需情况,结合该灌区的供需现状进行了供需平衡分析,研究了2015年的供需平衡,并针对性地提出了相应的对策建议,以缓解水资源供求矛盾,确保灌区社会经济的可持续发展。     

土地开发整理中低压管灌的供需水量平衡分析

以河南某平原区土地开发整理工程的井灌区为例开展供需水量平衡分析,利用水文、地质、气象资料等,分别对项目区供水量、需水量进行测算分析,得到总供水量和需水量,从而对项目区供需水量进行平衡分析,得到项目管灌系统规划的区域有灌溉保证,不会引起地下水超采的结论。     

美英法三国硕士研究生教育制度与社会条件的关系研究

硕士研究生教育制度的发展离不开外界条件的影响和作用,特别是社会条件的作用。对美英法三国近现代硕士研究生教育制度与社会条件之间的关系进行比较分析,发现并总结其规律,探索其成功经验,对于改革完善我国硕士研究生教育制度具有一定的借鉴意义。     

试论过渡时期建筑市场供求调节的方式方法

现阶段建筑市场供求调节的方式主要有:法律的、引导的、经济的、行政的、监督的、检查的。方法主要有:培育市场机制、调控市场运行;推进建筑产品价格改革;加强监督职能、监督市场运行;优化产业结构,向多元化规模经营发展;完善建筑市场法规体系等。     

Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa

This paper addresses the interplay between demographics and housing market dynamics in Haifa, Israel. In the 1990s the city of Haifa, with a population of approximately 220,000, absorbed about 45,000 immigrants. The case of Haifa offers a typical non-controlled experiment on how demographic shocks and associated changes in housing demand affect the housing market. The dynamic adjustment of house prices is estimated using an autoregressive, distributed lag ADL model, taking into account spatial spillover effects. The data analyzed cover housing transactions in Haifa between January 1989 and June 1999. The data come from a mortgage database. We used a house price index by tract and by year to investigate the impact of immigration on house price dynamics for a balanced panel of 34 tracts and 11 years. Tests showed that for some of the tracts house price series are not unit root. Most individual series though indicated that a unit root could not be rejected so that we considered house price series as being non-stationary. Also, the hypothesis of no co-integration could not be rejected by the data. Due to inertia we considered lagged spatial spillover effects for the dependent variable. We applied the corrected least squares dummy variable estimator to estimate the parameters of interest. The estimates of the coefficient of the lagged dependent variable suggest stability of the ADL structure. Furthermore, the results indicate a house price correction of almost 70% of the gap between house prices and its fundamental determinants each year. Our results suggest a substantially faster response after the demand shock in Haifa than obtained by others for other cities and regions in the literature. Yet our estimates seem not unreasonable given the large-scale land conversion and urban construction programs in Israel and underline the importance of a responsive supply to dampen house price rises after an unanticipated demographic shock.     

Radiocaesium activity concentrations in the fruit-bodies of macrofungi in Great Britain and an assessment of dietary intake habits.

Radiocaesium activity concentrations in the fruit-bodies of some species of macrofungi are higher than in many other foodstuffs. The consumption of fruit-bodies contributes significantly to radiocaesium intake of humans in some countries. In the United Kingdom, the collection of wild fungi has generally been considered to be of minor importance and there are few data on consumption rates or radiocaesium activity concentrations in most edible species. Samples of commonly eaten species in Great Britain have been collected to assess radiocaesium contamination levels and geographical variation. Concurrently, surveys of consumption habits were conducted. A total of 425 samples representing 37 different species were collected. Significantly higher radiocaesium activity concentrations occurred in mycorrhizal compared to saprotrophic or parasitic species. The highest 137Cs activity concentration of 30.5 kBq kg-1 dry wt. was determined in a sample of Hydnum repandum collected in Wales. The transfer of radiocaesium from soil to fungal fruit-bodies was highly variable, ranging over three orders of magnitude within individual species. A number of approaches to quantifying radiocaesium transfer from soil to fungal fruit-bodies were used. Although these were in general agreement with previously measured values in other countries, all the approaches gave variable results. Over 200 people responded to the dietary habits questionnaire. The median intake rate was 0.75 kg year-1 (fresh wt.) and 60% of respondents consumed only one species (generally Agaricus campestris). However, intakes of up to 26 kg year-1 were recorded and a total of 82 species were consumed. The intake of 137Cs was determined by the amount of mycorrhizal fungi in the diet rather than the total intake of fungi. Assuming median recorded 137Cs activity concentrations in each fungal species, the estimated annual committed effective dose for over 95% of respondents was < 1 microSv. Hence, currently, the consumption of wild fungi in the UK would not be expected to significantly increase the dose above that attributable to the normal diet of most consumers. However, the results of this study demonstrate that, in the event of any future accidental release of radiocaesium, the potential ingestion dose received from the consumption of wild fungi would need to be considered.     

Vacancy chains and the degree of mobility in the housing market

Mobility among different states of the housing market (e.g., among tenure modes and price classes) not only generates liquidity but also carries a crucial effect on the price pattern in the market. Studying housing mobility may thus provide insights to the current developments in worldwide housing markets. We theoretically explore vacancy chains and mobility in the market where, among the various results, we show that, in comparing markets with different degrees of mobility, when the probability to transit from any given state to lower states is zero, the expected number of intra-state transitions (as opposed to inter-state transitions) is always smaller in the market that allows for the greater mobility. Also, we derive upper and lower bounds for the expected number of intra-state transitions in the market and specifically show that the “multiplier effect” of the vacancy chain represents a lower bound for this measure. Among the other results, we show that, for every given housing state i, the expected number of intra-state vacancy transitions is greater than the expected number of inter-state transitions for all states j ≠ i. Moreover, we find a condition under which we characterize a subgroup of markets whose expected number of intra-state transitions is greater than the expected number of inter-state transitions for each vacancy chain. Our analysis of mobility and vacancy chains, while specifically focusing on housing markets, may be generalized to other markets as well.     

Demographic change and housing demand in spain: Projections up to the year 2010

The purpose of this study is to determine the future aggregate pressure of demographic factors on housing demand. Both the number and age compositions of Spanish households from 1980 to the year 2010 are projected. To determine the actual net increase of the number of households, the analysis considers both the formation and destruction of households. The magnitude and profile of the projection shows that in the present decade the net yearly growth in the number of households will be slightly smaller than that of previous years. In the first decade of the next century, there will be a drastic reduction in the net growth of new households.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 30th European Congress, Istanbul, August 1990.