基于中尺度气候模式的降水对水力发电的影响

通过分析水力发电站发电量与地区降水量之间的关系建立由降水驱动的水电响应模型,并在此基础上,使用逐步聚类方法对中尺度的区域气候模式进行统计降尺度,得到未来高精度的降水数据,以此研究未来降水变化对水力发电的影响。以大渡河流域某电站为案例,对其发电量进行模拟与预报,研究在未来气候变化条件下该电站的水力发电变化。结果表明,该电站在未来不同月份和调度时期的降水变化存在差异,由此会造成未来发电高峰期缩短,发电峰值下降,但全年总发电量基本保持不变。     

台湾电力工业概况及电力供需研究

近几年,台湾电力供应持续紧张,未来电力供应保障变数较大。在全面收集分析台湾地区电力工业和系统概况、发电、用电增长情况和用电特性后,预测台湾地区未来电力需求增长趋势,可能的电厂建设和退役计划,分析台湾地区未来电力供需形势。结果表明,未来5～10年台湾电力将持续面临电力供应紧缺局面。因此要结合两岸发展和合作情况,更大范围保障能源供应安全。     

土地利用与气候变化对洛河流域径流的影响

流域径流量受到土地利用和气候变化的共同影响,但大多数研究仅关注未来气候变化对径流量的影响,忽略了未来土地利用变化对径流量的影响。利用CA-Markov模型定量模拟流域未来土地利用类型并结合气候变化类型,采用SWAT分布式水文模型通过情景分析法模拟未来变化环境下流域的径流响应。结果表明,SWAT模型在洛河流域具有良好的适用性;未来流域土地利用呈现建设用地快速增加、耕地减少的趋势,这一趋势使径流量增加;径流量的变化与降雨变化呈正相关,与温度变化呈负相关。可见土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈现非线性协同作用。     

未来西部电网及可再生能源外送输电技术发展方向研究

在全球能源危机与环境污染的背景下,我国开发西部地区风电及太阳能发电等可再生能源,补充未来能源需求,推动能源革命已经刻不容缓。为此,本文针对适应中国西部大规模可再生能源外送的电网发展模式与输电技术来开展研究。本文结合西部电网现状与未来发展规划的调研以及发达国家电网规划的经验启示,提出了西部电网未来发展方向与相关措施建议。通过梳理现有输电技术在国内的工程应用与未来输电技术的发展潜力,指出西部大规模可再生能源外送最重要最具发展潜力的三项输电技术,即直流电网、特高压直流输电与超导输电技术,并对这三项输电技术的未来发展提出建议。     

Android走向何方？

早早有人预测未来的智能手机市场将由iOS、Windows Phone和Android三分天下。朝着这个目标,微软正在布局桌面PC、平板电脑和Windows Phone的完整生态链,iOS呢？Siri是未来的杀手锏,甚至在不远的未来威胁Google的搜索引擎霸主地位。Android走向何方？这就是我想告诉你的。     

天然气——未来低碳的希望

<正>据麻省理工学院的一份研究报告"天然气的未来"称,天然气能帮助美国进入未来的低碳社会。麻省理工学院能源创新系主任     

建筑节能关键技术回顾和展望——我国建筑节能技术发展回顾

建筑能耗将是我国未来能源消费的主要增长点,建筑节能技术的研究应用将对我国未来的能源消费产生深远的影响。为此,本文对当前国内外的建筑节能关键技术进行了比较系统的总结,并从建筑物本体、建筑设备和建筑环境控制系统三个角度重点回顾了我国的建筑节能技术的发展现状,分析了取得的成果的同时研究了各种关键技术的发展障碍。在此基础上,展望了我国未来建筑节能的重点发展领域,并指出了未来应该重点支持的建筑节能关键技术的发展方向。     

式论新型材料在变压器产品中的应用

重点讨论了非晶合金、NOMEX绝缘材料和变压器油等新型材料在变压器中的应用,阐述了新材料的未来发展趋势以及未来广阔的应用和发展空间。     

吕凤煤矿区水文地质条件分析及矿井水害防治

通过对吕凤矿区的水文地质条件分析,对未来矿坑水害的因素进行探讨,并对矿井可能发生的水害作了分析与预测,对未来矿井水害的防治提出建设性意见.     

建筑节能关键技术回顾和展望(二)——国内外建筑节能关键技术的发展现状及趋势

建筑能耗将是我国未来能源消费的主要增长点,建筑节能技术的研究应用将对我国未来的能源消费产生深远的影响。为此,本文对当前国内外的建筑节能关键技术进行了比较系统的总结,并从建筑物本体、建筑设备和建筑环境控制系统三个角度重点回顾了我国的建筑节能技术的发展现状,分析了取得的成果的同时研究了各种关键技术的发展障碍。在此基础上,展望了我国未来建筑节能的重点发展领域,并指出了未来应该重点支持的建筑节能关键技术的发展方向。     

Some issues related to the energy sources in the Czech Republic

Although the Czech Republic is a relatively small country it is faced with the problem of balancing energy production against the available resources of energy-producing raw materials. The Czech Republic is atypical of the EU countries because it is one of a few countries that presently exports electric energy and, at the same time, is still producing uranium ores. Resources of all the essential energy-producing raw materials exist in the Czech Republic, though, temporarily, only brown coal and bituminous coal reserves cover the immediate needs of energy production, while uranium ores are sufficient to satisfy the demands for a long period in the future. This paper provides data on the deposits of raw materials useful for energy production in the Czech Republic and their lifetimes, as well as the proportions of different energy sources.     

全球深水油气资源勘探开发现状及面临的挑战

全球海洋油气资源非常丰富,其中大陆架占据主要部分,约为60%左右;深水、超深水的资源量也不容小觑,约占全部海洋资源量的30%。但分布十分不均,主要分布在巴西、墨西哥湾、西非三大热点地区。截至2007年,海上油气探明储量约1526×108t,占全部探明储量的27%左右,深水已成为未来油气生产的重要基地。21世纪以来,各大石油公司纷纷加快进军深水区域的步伐,不断加强勘探开发投资力度,海上油气产量稳步上升。西非、北美和拉丁美洲依然是未来深水油气生产的重要区域,亚洲也将成为一个十分重要的深水油气生产基地。但深水油气勘探开发也面临着两个挑战:一是深水油气勘探开发难度不断增加;二是深水油气勘探开发投资回报率不断下降。如果未来不能很好地解决深水技术难题,将会降低深水油气资源项目的吸引力。     

A review on coal‐to‐liquid fuels and its coal consumption

Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal‐to‐liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vital for planning and policy‐making, as future CTL systems will be integrated in a much larger global energy and fuel utilization system. Conversion ratios for CTL are generally estimated to be between 1 and 2 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limitation on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production volumes, regardless of other factors such as economics, emissions or environmental concerns. Assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few mega barrels per day. This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale. However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive significant shares of their fuel supply from CTL, but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacities. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. For the most part, it can only be a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential and use of renewable energy sources in Croatia

The current share of renewable energy sources in electricity production in Croatia is very high, around 50%. Nevertheless it is expected that the share of renewables will have to rise and efficient strategies must be examined and adopted. The Croatian government has recognised the important role renewable energy sources could play in Croatian energy and electricity supply. The most important barrier for a wider deployment of renewables in energy production is their cost which is still above those of conventional energy sources. As the energy market is currently undergoing the process of liberalisation, support mechanisms that are compatible with an open market philosophy must be adopted. The characteristics of the Croatian power system, the expected consumption, growth and possible future role of renewables in energy and electricity production is presented. The current legislative framework relevant for renewables is analysed and discussed.     

Energy content of world trade

This paper constructs a comprehensive dataset of oil and total energy embedded in world trade of manufacturing goods for 73 countries from 1978 to 2000. Applying the data to debates on the dependency on foreign energy sources makes clear that achieving complete energy independence in the foreseeable future is unlikely to be feasible and may not be desirable. Applying it to the discussion of environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) highlights an important distinction between production and consumption of energy. Richer countries use relatively less energy in their industrial production yet still consume relatively large amounts of energy indirectly. A further investigation largely excludes structural shifts of production in and out of the manufacturing sector as an explanation for the downward-sloping portion of the EKC. Country-level analyses add caveats but show tentative support for the cross-country conclusions.     

An overview of the Portuguese electricity market

The electricity market in Portugal was recently opened up to all consumers. However, it remains highly concentrated in terms of control of production and supply and long-term power purchase arrangements still coexist with free market operation. This paper discusses the electricity market restructuring process in Portugal, presenting the market main characteristics in past years and the present situation. The evolution of the electricity prices in Portugal is analysed, and a comparison with EU-15 is presented. Special attention is given to Spain due to the possibility of cross-border competition in the future, arising from the formation of the Iberian electricity market.     

Evaluation of greenhouse gas emission risks from storage of wood residue

The use of renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels is one of the most important means of limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the near future. In Finland, wood energy is considered to be a very important potential energy source in this sense. There might, however, still be some elements of uncertainty when evaluating biofuel production chains. By combining data from a stack of composting biodegradable materials and forest residue storage research there was an indication that rather great amounts of greenhouse gases maybe released during storage of wood chip, especially if there is rapid decomposition. Unfortunately, there have not been many evaluations of greenhouse gas emissions of biomass handling and storage heaps. The greenhouse gas emissions are probably methane, when the temperature in the fuel stack is above the ambient temperature, and nitrous oxide, when the temperature is falling and the decaying process is slowing down. Nowadays it is still rather unusual to store logging residue as chips, because the production is small, but in Finland storage of bark and other by-products from the forest industry is a normal process. The evaluations made indicate that greenhouse gas emissions from storage can, in some cases, be much greater than emissions from the rest of the biofuel production and transportation chain.     

Future Danish oil and gas export

Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority's own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway's oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden's future energy security.     

The future of hydrogen energy: Bio-hydrogen production technology

The widespread use of non-renewable energy has caused serious environmental problems such as global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels. Hydrogen, as a well-known carbon-free gaseous fuel, has become the most promising energy carrier for future energy. Hydrogen has an excellent mass-basis calorific value and no carbon atom contained, which makes it to be an attractive fuel for various power devices (like the internal combustion engine, gas turbine, and fuel cell). Nowadays, the production of hydrogen is still predominated by fossil-based techniques, which is considered undesirable due to low conversion efficiency and release of greenhouse gases. It is necessary to find green and sustainable hydrogen production routes with low energy consumption and cost. In this paper, the different hydrogen production technologies via fossil routes or non-fossil routes are reviewed in general, and it is found that bio-hydrogen production has certain environmental advantages and broad prospects compared with other hydrogen production technologies. Then, the characteristics and research status of different bio-hydrogen production technologies are discussed in depth. It is found that each bio-hydrogen production technique has its own advantages, challenges, and applicability. The economic analysis of bio-hydrogen energy is also performed from the aspects of production, storage, and transportation. The results show that bio-hydrogen production technology could be a good possibility way for producing renewable hydrogen, which is of high efficiency and thus competitive over other hydrogen production methods both in economics and environmental benefits.     

Lithium batteries: Status, prospects and future

Lithium batteries are characterized by high specific energy, high efficiency and long life. These unique properties have made lithium batteries the power sources of choice for the consumer electronics market with a production of the order of billions of units per year. These batteries are also expected to find a prominent role as ideal electrochemical storage systems in renewable energy plants, as well as power systems for sustainable vehicles, such as hybrid and electric vehicles. However, scaling up the lithium battery technology for these applications is still problematic since issues such as safety, costs, wide operational temperature and materials availability, are still to be resolved. This review focuses first on the present status of lithium battery technology, then on its near future development and finally it examines important new directions aimed at achieving quantum jumps in energy and power content.