山东电网供电可靠性分析

对山东电网１９９４年１０ｋＶ用户供电可靠性指标及停电记录进行了分析，从停电时间和停电次数两个角度对停电原因进行排队，发现影响可靠性的主要因素是计划停电、系统电源不足限电和故障停电，据此提出合理安排停电计划、加快发、输、变、配电发展速度等管理措施和加快城同改造步伐的技术措施。总结出加强网络改造是基础，做好管理工作是保证，提高领导重视程度是关键这三要素，指出只有满足上述三要素，才能提高用户供电可靠性。     

加强停电计划管理让客户更满意

正为提高客户满意度,曲靖供电局努力寻求停电施工与保障客户用电之间的平衡点,持续加强综合停电计划管理,优化停电方案,最大限度的减少临时停电和重复停电,确保停电计划可控,提高供电可靠率,做实供电服务。截至2014年8月31日,曲靖供电局全口径综合供电可靠率为99.97%,同比提升0.1987个百分点;用户平均停电时间为1.73小时,同比减少11.64小时;用户平均停电次数1041次,同比减少3584次。     

提高县级供电企业可靠率探讨

众所周知,供电可靠性是指供电系统持续供电的能力,是考核供电系统电能质量的重要指标,反映了电力工业对国民经济电能需求的满足程度,已经成为衡量一个国家经济发达程度的标准之一;然而,供电可靠率、用户平均停电时间、用户平均停电次数、用户平均故障停电次数是衡量供电可靠性的重要指标之一,其高低影响着供电可靠性。特别是衡量指标中的供电可靠率越低,则说明我们的供电服务水平越低,反之,说明我们的供电服务水平越好。也就是说供电可靠率的高低不仅直接关系到供电企业的供电可靠性、经济效益,更标志着供电企业的服务水平。在竞争日趋激烈、提倡优质服务的今天,直接代表着企业的整体形象,未来的发展,影响着今后国民经济提升。     

城市电网用户停电损失估算及评价方法研究

合理地估算和评价城市电网中各类用户的停电损失,为电力企业在提高城市电网的可靠性水平及应急电源优化配置的投资和决策方面提供依据。在对受停电影响造成的各类用户的经济损失进行分类调查的基础上,以峰荷时刻的停电损失为基准,建立了表示综合用户停电损失和停电持续时间关系的综合用户停电损失函数,用以估算每类用户的综合停电损失。基本计算过程为,根据各类用户的综合用户停电损失函数和停电次数的统计结果,采用停电损失评价率和每次事故停电损失2个指标来评价每类用户的停电损失。采用青岛地区53个重要用户的数据为实际算例,估算并评价了各类用户的停电损失。所得结果表明,所提出的估算和评价用户停电损失的方法,有助于电力企业确定不同可靠性水平下的应急电源优化配置成本。     

基于用户停电损失评估的不停电作业优先级策略研究

目前国内外普遍采用不停电作业手段来提高供电可靠性、减少用户停电时间、提高劳动效率.如何在有限资源的情况下确定不停电作业的优先级,是当下不停电作业次数呈爆发式增长面临的关键问题.在构建用户停电损失模型的基础上,采用问卷调查的手段,针对不同种类的用户开展调研,利用Tobit模型截断思想,对其进行预处理,再从定性分析与定量计...     

2008年上半年全国用户供电可靠性保持平稳

2008年上半年,全国用户供电可靠性指标维持在较平稳水平。全国上半年用户供电可靠率RS-1为99．843％,相应的用户平均停电时间为6．858h;RS-3为99．865％,相应的用户平均停电时间为5．885h,上海指标最高达到99．977％。全国城市去年同期指标用户供电可靠率RS-1为99．880％,用户平均停电时间为5．2039h;RS-3为99．883％,用户平均停电时间为5．1045h。     

一种电力用户停电损失函数估算方法

电力用户停电损失函数对电力系统规划、运行和电力市场下的安全费用计算等具有重要意义。但求取停电损失函数需要区分不同电力用户的用电性质,也需要大量统计数据资料作为停电损失函数的分析依据,从而使其成为当前电力市场研究工作的一个难点。本文在目前研究成果的基础上,提出一种参考其它地区停电损失函数、根据所研究地区电力用户消耗每kW h电力的平均效益估算用户停电损失函数的方法。该方法避免了大量数据统计工作,对不同性质电力用户的停电损失函数进行快速简单分析。用加拿大停电损失函数近似估算了天津市电力用户停电损失函数,实例表明所提方法可行。     

海湾电力公司利用智能数据量化电压闪变现象

在看待电压闪变的问题上,用户报告的停电次数与其经历过的电压闪变次数并不相符,然而它们之间确有相关性。用户经历的电压闪变次数越多,他们察觉到并在调查中报告的停电次数也就越多。尽管已经要求用户不要将电压闪变现象包括在其报告的总数中,这些短暂性事件仍然反映出用户对可靠性的感受,并造成用户认为停电次数比他们实际经历的要多。     

一种电力用户停电损失函数估算方法

电力用户停电损失函数对电力系统规划、运行和电力市场下的安全费用计算等具有重要意义.但求取停电损失函数需要区分不同电力用户的用电性质,也需要大量统计数据资料作为停电损失函数的分析依据,从而使其成为当前电力市场研究工作的一个难点.本文在目前研究成果的基础上,提出一种参考其它地区停电损失函数、根据所研究地区电力用户消耗每kWh电力的平均效益估算用户停电损失函数的方法.该方法避免了大量数据统计工作,对不同性质电力用户的停电损失函数进行快速简单分析.用加拿大停电损失函数近似估算了天津市电力用户停电损失函数,实例表明所提方法可行.     

改善供用电可靠性的新型停电保险机制

传统的可靠性管理方式由于缺乏用户需求信息和经济激励,导致可靠性建设具有一定的盲目性和滞后性。为了更好地管理供用电可靠性以降低停电损失,文中提出了新型停电保险机制,论述了引入停电保险的可行性,根据经济性和可靠性指标对负荷点进行停电风险等级和风险群的划分,提出了合理厘定保险费率的方法,同时分析了用户投保的方式、理赔方案及其在投保过程中的决策行为,并探讨了保险方关于可靠性管理的行为方式和风险决策模型。数值分析表明,输配电公司可以通过停电保险分析用户可靠性需求信息,更经济地对用户用电面临的不确定性进行层次化管理,提高了全社会的用电效益。     

配电系统中变电站智能化升级策略

代表变电站技术发展趋势的智能变电站是智能电网的重要组成部分。智能变电站的配置对系统安全与经济运行具有重要影响,是值得研究的重要问题。在此背景下,研究了计及可靠性的配电系统中变电站智能化升级问题。首先,以变电站智能化升级成本和用户停电损失之和最小化为目标函数,考虑系统平均停电时间(system average interruption duration index,SAIDI)和电量不足平均值(average energy not supplied,AENS)这2个可靠性指标不超过给定阈值等约束条件,构建了配电系统中变电站的智能化升级优化模型。之后,发展了针对配电系统故障的故障清除模型,提出了评估用户停电时间的比较准确的方法。接着,对用户停电时间和用户停电损失函数进行线性化处理,得到变电站智能化升级问题的混合整数线性规划模型,并采用高效商业求解器求解。最后,以IEEE RBTS-Bus 4配电系统和丹麦某中压配电系统为例来说明所提方法的基本特征。     

配电网用户感知停电事故严重性分析及可靠性评估

可靠性评估对于指导配电网规划设计具有重要意义。传统配电网可靠性评估主要从系统侧供电的角度,建立评估指标体系并进行分析,较少考虑停电发生时用户侧的用能需求差异,忽视了不同用户对于同一停电事故严重性的差异化感知,进而造成了传统可靠性指标不能完全准确反映停电事件对于不同用户在不同时段的差异化影响。为解决上述问题,首先,提出了用户感知可靠性的概念,并提出了一种用户对停电事故严重性感知的量化方法,以分析不同用户对停电事故的严重性感知程度及停电容忍程度;然后,分别从用户侧和系统侧提出了一系列基于用户感知的配电网可靠性评估新指标,建立了相应指标体系,并围绕该体系对配电网系统的可靠性评估开展了研究;最后,运用IEEE-RBTS标准算例对所提出的方法、指标进行了计算验证,证明了其可行性及正确性;并通过与传统可靠性指标的对比分析,体现了用户感知可靠性指标相较于传统评估指标的客观优势。     

Utilization of time varying event-based customer interruption cost load shedding schemes

Load curtailments occurring under emergency conditions can have significant monetary impacts on the system customers. Customer satisfaction is becoming increasingly important in the new deregulated electric utility environment, and the customers in some jurisdictions are beginning to receive monetary compensation for power supply failures. Minimizing the customer interruption costs associated with a load curtailment event is an important factor in maintaining customer satisfaction. Customer interruption costs depend on many factors such as the customer types interrupted, the actual load demand at the time of the outage, the duration of the outage, the time of day and the day in which the outage occurs. This paper focuses on incorporating these interruption cost factors in a load shedding strategy. The load shedding algorithm was developed using an approximate event-based customer interruption cost evaluation technique to identify and determine the priority of the distribution feeders on a given bus during an emergency. The developed algorithm incorporates a time dependent feeder cost priority index (FCP). The optimum load shedding set determined using the FCP is a feeder or group of feeders that meet a capacity deficiency, and result in the lowest customer interruption cost for the specified emergency situation. This paper illustrates the algorithm development for a load shedding scheme and demonstrates the utilization of the technique on a sample load bus.     

Analytical Complex Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Considering Stochastic Interruption Durations and Network Reconfigurations

A reliability enhancement scheme for an electric distribution system is impossible to be cost-effective without the guidance of accurate reliability index estimations. As one of the widely used basic reliability indices, average interruption duration is of foremost concern, due to being a straightforward indicator of the electric power supply quality in the aspect of customer satisfaction to the incident response capability of electric utilities to outage events. This paper proposed an analytical distribution system reliability evaluation method that allows for considering stochastic load point interruption durations together with stipulated network reconfiguration constraints. Through case studies on the Roy Billinton Reliability Test System, advantages of the proposed method over a traditional section technique-based reliability evaluation method are discussed. The proposed method is validated to yield more realistic estimations in the case of considering stochastic interruption durations and post-fault network reconfigurations, thus is expected to be capable of supporting economical system reliability-enhancing decision-making.     

Features that influence composite power system reliability worthassessment

Reliability worth assessment using customer interruption costs is an important element in electric power system planning and operation. This paper deals with two features that affect the composite generation-transmission system reliability worth assessment. One feature is the incorporation of temporal variations in the cost of interruption. This paper illustrates the effect on the expected annual system outage cost of temporal variation in the interruption costs for the residential, agricultural, industrial, commercial and large user sectors. The other aspect considered in this paper is using a probability distribution approach to represent the cost of interruption model. The conventional customer damage function approach utilizes average customer costs while the probability distribution approach recognizes the dispersed nature of the customer outage data. These two methods of cost evaluation are applied to reliability worth assessment in this paper. A sequential Monte Carlo approach incorporating time varying loads is used to conduct all the studies. Case studies performed on two composite test systems show that incorporating time varying costs of interruption for the industrial sector resulted in a significant reduction in the expected outage cost. A comparison of the reliability worth obtained using the customer damage function method (CDF) with the probability distribution approach suggests that using the CDF method may significantly undervalue the reliability worth by a factor of three to four     

基于贝叶斯网络的电力客户停电敏感度预测

精准预测停电敏感的电力客户群体,能够有效感知客户用电需求,提升客户用电满意度,助力提高电力服务水平。文中提出基于贝叶斯网络构建电力客户停电敏感度预测模型,从95598客服平台、营销业务系统、用电信息采集系统获取分析数据,结合客户基本信息、用电信息、智能电能表计量信息以及用户用电交互行为,定义客户停电敏感度数据标签,对用户的停电投诉进行分析与预测。采用K折交叉验证法对停电敏感度预测模型进行实验验证。实验表明,基于贝叶斯网络构建的电力客户停电敏感度预测模型,在停电投诉分析应用中具备较高的精准度,验证了模型的有效性。     

综合停电管理在供电企业客户服务中的应用

为了帮助供电企业客户服务中心在停电、复电过程中及时获取相关信息,根据客户服务与停电管理内在业务紧密关联的特点,构建综合停电信息管理平台,按照停电、复电过程的业务类型进行归类,将停电所涉及的信息整合到综合停电信息平台,供客户服务中心的客服人员检索和查询。通过改造业务流程及构建综合停电信息管理平台,提高了解决客户停电诉求问题的及时性,提升了客户服务水平。     

Distributed nature of residential customer outage costs

Reliability worth assessment is an important factor in power system planning and operation. An equally important issue is how to use customer costs of electric supply interruptions as surrogates to appropriately quantify reliability worth. Postal or in-person surveys of electric customers are often used to determine interruption costs. The results obtained from the surveys are transformed into customer damage functions which are applicable to individual customer classes and sectors. Standard customer damage functions use aggregate or average customer costs for selected outage durations. This paper develops a practical alternative to the customer damage function method of describing the interruption cost data. The alternate technique, which is designated as the probability distribution approach, is capable of recognizing the dispersed nature of the data. The proposed probability distribution method is illustrated in this paper using the interruption cost data collected in a 1991 survey of the Canadian residential sector     

Automation Effects on Reliability and Operation Costs in Storm Restoration

Abstract—Storm response and restoration can be very expensive for electric utilities. The deployment of automated switches can benefit the utility by decreasing storm restoration hours. The automated switches also improve system reliably by decreasing customer interruption duration. In this article, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to mimic storm equipment failure events, followed by reconfiguration for restoration and power flow evaluations. The customer outage status and duration are examined. Changes in reliability for the system with and without automated switching devices are investigated. Economic benefits of utilizing smart grid automated devices are considered.