The influence of distributed generation penetration levels on energy markets

Planning of national energy policies brings new dilemmas with the introduction of distributed generators (DG). Economic theory suggests that a perfectly competitive market would lead to efficient pricing. In the absence of competition, regulators play a fundamental role in attracting reasonably priced finance in order to maintain, refurbish and increase the infrastructure and provide services at a reasonable cost. Energy market price equilibrium is mainly dependent on suppliers, generators, energy sources and demand, represented by conventional utility grid users. Its behavior is similar to that of other commodities. As generation becomes less centralized with the increasing economic viability of renewable energy sources, new suppliers are being connected to the grid. Such evolution means the transition from a monopolistic market to a broader and more open environment, with an increasing number of competitors. We make use of variational inequalities to model a hypothetical DG market in different scenarios, from monopoly, to oligopoly, to open market. Such an approach enables different equilibrium outcomes due to different DG penetration levels. Based on these findings, we argue that energy policies for such markets must be developed according to each specific stage of the grid's lifecycle. We show how energy policies and market regulations may affect such a transition, which may be catastrophic if not managed properly, and which is dependent on the energy mix.     

Myth of energy competitiveness in energy producing countries : Comparative analysis between Indonesia and Japan

This paper examines the relative comparative advantage, focusing on energy prices, of an energy producing developing country (Indonesia) and a non-energy producing developed country (Japan). For energy producing developing countries, it is strategically important to increase the competitiveness of energy dependent industries, and encourage the development of value-added industries. Much work has been done on relative advantage analysis, but the effects of the energy price formation mechanisms on price competitiveness have not been analysed. In this paper a comprehensive approach, using production and cost functions and synchronized price formation by means of principal component analysis, is introduced.     

The implementation of a multi-annual agreement for energy efficiency in The Netherlands

The paper analyses the implementation of the second multi-annual agreement for energy efficiency concluded in the Netherlands with industrial sectors for the period 2002–2010. It aims to investigate whether the multi-annual agreement MJA2, as a voluntary instrument, is sufficiently stimulating behavioral change at the target group level, and sustained transformation of production and management patterns towards significant gains in energy efficiency. The analysis uses a Structure–Conduct–Performance analytical framework for implementation processes in order to: (a) analyze the setting of implementation, actor roles, attitudes and interactions; (b) discuss emerging obstacles and positive experiences with the implementation of the three core policy instruments envisaged: energy management system, process efficiency measures, and ‘expansion themes’ measures. Based on this policy recommendations are formulated regarding voluntary agreements in general, using the Structure–Conduct–Performance framework of implementation analysis, and regarding how the implementation process of MJA2 in particular could be improved.     

The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China

The pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards, because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in China. Chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy. The relations between Chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism. In this paper, the relations between Chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations, impulse response functions, granger causality and variance decomposition. The cointegration relations among energy prices, energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in Chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run. The cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run. So Chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy, and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy.     

Stagnating energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector—Economic and organisational explanations

The development towards higher energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector stagnated in the late 1980s and 1990s. In new buildings the average specific energy use for heating is twice as high as in the best performing buildings 20 years ago. By combining econometric studies and interviews with actors in the building sector we analyse the underlying economic and organisational causes for this development. In the stock of buildings, specific energy use for heating (kWh/m²/yr) has a high correlation with increasing energy prices and price elasticities have not changed markedly over time. This implies that the stagnation to a large extent can be explained by energy price trends. On the contrary, in new buildings the correlation between energy prices and specific energy use is much weaker. One important cause of low sensitivity to price changes is that information about the life cycle cost (LCC) of different investment alternatives is often not available to the involved actors. The most common investment criterion is instead the requirements of the national building energy standard which has developed into a norm rather than a minimum for energy performance. In this paper we also discuss potential improvements in the learning processes within the sector.     

Energy price shocks in the 1970s : Impact on industrialized economies

The energy price increases in the 1970s profoundly affected the major macroeconomic variables in the economies of the industrialized world. This article measures the magnitude of the effect of the 1973 energy price shock on the economies of the USA, Canada, the UK, Germany and France. A short-run model of aggregate supply is developed, estimated and tested for overall performance, and then calibrated to the experience of the 1973–1979 period. A positive feature of the model is that it adopts a generalized multisector framework in which an energy sector is explicitly introduced in construction of the aggregate supply function. The model also heeds labour market rigidities. According to the model, the 1973 leap in energy prices generated a major inflationary impulse in all of the countries studied. The effects on labour productivity, real wages, capital utilization rate, and energy consumption were also found to be considerable and, to a large degree, similar. An interesting result concerning labour demand is that higher energy prices led to substitution of labour-intensive methods of production for energy-intensive ones, raising the magnitude of the labour/output ratio.     

Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?

As currently discussed in political circles, oil independence is unattainable—lacking coherent meaning and wedding policymakers to the notion that they can never accomplish it. Contrary to this thinking, more than a dozen different sets of technologies and practices could increase domestic supply and reduce demand for oil to the point of making the US functionally independent from oil price shocks. However, achieving this goal demands concerted action to expand and diversify conventional domestic oil supplies, reduce overall demand in the transportation and buildings sector, and continue to develop alternative fuels. If policymakers undertook such actions today, the US could become oil independent by 2030.     

Energy prices and investment over the business cycle

This paper develops a theoretical investment equation for the firm which explicitly includes the relationship between investment and the price of energy. Using intertemporal comparative statics, we investigate how economic conditions affect that relationship. In a two-period model, the net present value of the firm's cash inflows is maximized subject to constraints. The resulting investment equation for the firm is summed over all firms to produce an aggregate investment equation. By assuming that aggregate shocks do not affect every firm simultaneously, we could investigate the effects of varying economic conditions on the relationship under study. We find that energy price increases will retard aggregate real investment. Also, this restraining impact will be greatest during boom periods and least during recessions. Further, the impact of an energy price increase on aggregate investment diminishes as the level of energy prices increases. We show that simple OLS techniques are not appropriate for empirical estimation of the relationship between aggregate investment and energy price; they could produce inconsistent results depending on the time period studied because of the business cycle effects. A survey of corporations along product lines would be useful to test for such non-linearity.     

建筑节能诊断技术研究文献综述

随着社会的高速发展和城市化进程的加快,中国建筑业进入快速发展时期。由此带来的建筑能耗也在不断增长,对全社会的节能减排带来了巨大影响。目前我国面临着能源紧缺、建筑能耗过高、新能源利用率低、建筑节能技术落后等问题,建筑的节能改造已经是迫在眉睫。分析国内外相关研究成果,了解建筑节能改造的技术和原理以及最新的研究状况,并针对新晋兴起的计算机技术与建筑节能改造的可结合性作了详细分析。针对我国的既有建筑的改造提出了一些有用并且可行的改造方式,希望能够为我国综合能源利用效率的普遍提升提供新的思路,为行业的发展创设条件。     

基于投入产出模型的能源经济易损性分析

本文通过分析表明在四大主要能源行业经济易损性下降的同时,其价格易损性却是在不断上升的。随着我国能源对外依存度的不断增加和国际油价的剧烈波动,提高能源利用效率、合理调整产业结构以降低能源易损性是保障国家能源安全的重要任务。     

Examination of energy price policies in Iran for optimal configuration of CHP and CCHP systems based on particle swarm optimization algorithm

The current subsidized energy prices in Iran are proposed to be gradually eliminated over the next few years. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of current and future energy price policies on optimal configuration of combined heat and power (CHP) and combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems in Iran, under the conditions of selling and not-selling electricity to utility. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for minimizing the cost function for owning and operating various CHP and CCHP systems in an industrial dairy unit. The results show that with the estimated future unsubsidized utility prices, CHP and CCHP systems operating with reciprocating engine prime mover have total costs of 5.6 and $2.9×10⁶ over useful life of 20 years, respectively, while both systems have the same capital recovery periods of 1.3 years. However, for the same prime mover and with current subsidized prices, CHP and CCHP systems require 4.9 and 5.2 years for capital recovery, respectively. It is concluded that the current energy price policies hinder the promotion of installing CHP and CCHP systems and, the policy of selling electricity to utility as well as eliminating subsidies are prerequisites to successful widespread utilization of such systems.     

Do high oil prices justify an increase in taxation in a mature oil province? The case of the UK continental shelf

In response to the structural shift in oil price coupled with greater import dependency, concerns about security of supply have once again emerged as a major policy issue. The UK, the largest producer of oil and natural gas in the European Union, became a net importer of natural gas in 2004, and according to Government estimates will become a net importer of oil by the end of the decade. A weakened North Sea performance means extra reliance, both for the UK and Europe as a whole, on global oil and gas network and imports. In 2002, the UK Government introduced a 10% supplementary charge and in 2005, doubled the charge to 20% in an attempt to capture more revenues from the oil industry as a result of the increase in the price of crude oil. However, higher tax rates do not necessarily generate higher fiscal revenue and in the long term may result in materially lower revenues if investment is discouraged as indeed occurred when the 2007 UK Annual Budget statement showed a shortfall in North Sea oil revenues below forecasts of £4 billion. It is therefore argued that the increase in the fiscal take came at the wrong time for the UK Continental Shelf and that the UK Government's concern should have been to encourage more oil production from its declining province, especially in the light of the rising concern surrounding the security of supply.     

Reducing subsidies on household fuels in India: how will it affect the poor?

Kerosene and LPG are widely used in households in India for lighting and cooking. These fuels have historically been subsidized. As part of the restructuring of the energy sector, the government is committed to limiting these subsidies. This paper examines the impact of reducing energy subsidies on the welfare of the poor. The paper uses data from nationally representative surveys of over 100,000 households. The paper concludes that the case for reducing LPG subsidies is strong. Although the kerosene subsidy is an inefficient means of subsidizing fuel use by the poor, reduction in it will need to be supported by other policies that would limit the adverse impacts.     

我国能源统计工作面临的问题及完善途径分析

能源统计工作虽然经过几次变革,但在有效反映能源经济现象实质,为国家宏观调控和制定能源政策等提供依据方面仍相对滞后。我国的能源统计在统计方法、统计范围、评价指标体系、统计报表和统计力量、统计数据等方面都不能适应现行低碳环保型可持续发展经济模式。可以从能源量、能源效率、能源结构的统计以及能源清洁生产和消耗的相关统计等方面加强我国能源统计的研究和管理。     

建立多方结合的城市能效市场机制

本文提出了一个全新的概念,即多方结合的城市能效市场机制。这里所说的多方,即为市政府、金融机构、节能技术提供商、节能技术使用方、当地节能中心等。这种机制的建立有助于一项高效节能技术的推广,使其形成大量集中购买,产生较大的节能效果。本文介绍了这种机制在我国的示范与启示。     

Effect of fuelwood scarcity and socio-economic factors on household bio-based energy use and energy substitution in rural Ethiopia

In Ethiopia biomass is predominantly utilized for household energy needs often using inefficient rudimentary stoves which cause adverse environmental and welfare effects. This paper examined the contribution of biomass resources to rural household energy use and energy substitution. The analysis applied the ordinary least square in the final stage estimation of fuelwood and overall biomass energy consumption by using predicted shadow prices. The paper used Tobit model to estimate charcoal and agricultural fuel consumption due to the presence of censoring. An increase in fuelwood shadow price was associated with reduced household fuelwood consumption with price elasticity of −0.38. The cross price elasticity between fuelwood and agricultural fuels revealed no evidence of energy substitution, which conforms to the findings of previous studies. Household access to electricity was associated with lower household biomass energy utilization but kerosene was not fuelwood substitute. Household energy use conformed to the ‘fuel stacking’ or ‘multiple fuel use’ concept, but households preferred modern energy options as welfare increased in areas where modern energy is available. This suggests that there is a promising prospect for fuel-transition, but access to modern energy and economic growth have key roles. The findings suggest that a concerted policy effort is required that would help diversify rural livelihoods, improve living standards and encourage economic growth, encourage inter-fuel substitution through improved modern energy access and afforestation to increase biomass supply.     

Accelerated electricity conservation in Juneau,Alaska: A study of household activities that reduced demand 25%

An avalanche destroyed the main hydroelectric transmission line to Juneau, Alaska in April, 2008. Diesel-generated electricity was substituted, causing electricity prices to increase 500% for 45 days. Electricity demand fell by 25% during the supply disruption. Most of the reduction occurred before the higher rates were implemented. Some conservation – about 8% of historic consumption – persisted after the transmission line was repaired and prices returned to normal. Consumers reduced energy use through a combination of new habits and technical improvements. A survey of residential consumers indicated that the average household undertook 10 conservation actions, with major changes in lighting, space heating, fuel switching, and water and appliance use. We propose a method for prioritizing conservation actions for promotion according to their impact in electricity savings (as a function of popularity, effectiveness, and persistence) and a dynamic framework for electricity use before, during, and after a supply disruption (i.e., both the magnitude and rates of change in electricity conservation).     

Demand for gasoline and diesel fuel by farmers in the USA

This study endeavours to determine whether farmers in the USA adjust their consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel in response to changes in the relative prices of different types of energy. A demand model is specified and estimated. The conclusions suggest that the price of gasoline (diesel fuel) is a factor impacting the quantity of gasoline (diesel fuel) demanded by farmers, but there is no indication that other types of energy are substitutes for gasoline (diesel fuel). Additionally, the level of farming activity is a very important factor driving the demand for gasoline (diesel fuel). Finally, the estimated models of gasoline and diesel fuel demand are structurally stable over the period 1971–1988.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.