The inaction effect in the psychology of regret.

Previous research showed that decisions to act (i.e., actions) produce more regret than decisions not to act (i.e., inactions). This previous research focused on decisions made in isolation and ignored that decisions are often made in response to earlier outcomes. The authors show in 4 experiments that these prior outcomes may promote action and hence make inaction more abnormal. They manipulated information about a prior outcome. As hypothesized, when prior outcomes were positive or absent, people attributed more regret to action than to inaction. However, as predicted and counter to previous research, following negative prior outcomes, more regret was attributed to inaction, a finding that the authors label the inaction effect. Experiment 4, showing differential effects for regret and disappointment, demonstrates the need for emotion-specific predictions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of anticipated regret in escalation of commitment.

This research tests the general proposition that people are motivated to reduce future regret under escalation situations. This is supported by the findings that (a) escalation of commitment is stronger when the possibility of future regret about withdrawal is high than when this possibility is low (Studies 1a and 1b) and (b) escalation of commitment increases as the net anticipated regret about withdrawal increases (Studies 2a and 2b). Furthermore, the regret effects in the 4 studies were above and beyond the personal responsibility effects on escalation. This research indicates that people in escalation situations are simultaneously influenced by the emotions they expect to experience in the future (e.g., anticipated regret) and by events that have happened in the past (e.g., responsibility for the initiating previous decision). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

To do or not to do: Desirability and consistency mediate judgments of regret.

In 4 studies, the authors demonstrated that when errors associated with action were inconsistent with decision makers' orientation, they were undesirable and produced more regret than did errors associated with inaction. Conversely, when errors associated with action were consistent with decision makers' orientation, they were desirable and produced less regret than did errors associated with inaction. Desirability and consistency mediated this relationship, independent of mutability. These results were obtained when judgments and decisions to act or not act were made in close temporal proximity to one another as well as when participants reflected on their past decisions. The authors provide an analysis of when counterfactuals would and would not be expected to mediate judgments of normality and regret. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Taking the easy way out: Preference diversity, decision strategies, and decision refusal in groups.

It has often been argued and found that preference diversity is beneficial for the quality of group decisions. However, this literature has neglected the fact that in many situations, it is also possible not to choose. Further, preference diversity can be based on attractions, aversions, or both. The authors argue that some types of preference diversity can lead to biased discussions and choice refusal (i.e., the group refuses to choose any of the available options). In a laboratory experiment, three different patterns were observed. When group members held different aversions before discussion, discussions were aversion driven and group members quickly agreed to refuse all alternatives. When each alternative had both a proponent and an adversary, discussions were longer and unbiased but still often led to refusal, which was accompanied by relatively low levels of outcome satisfaction. Only when preference diversity was based only on attractions did it lead to unbiased discussion, low prevalence of refusal, and high outcome satisfaction. Implications for group decision making are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Does decision quality (always) increase with the size of information samples? Some vicissitudes in applying the law of large numbers.

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect is offered within a satisficing-choice framework. Accordingly, a choice is only made when the sample contingency describing the relative evaluation of the 2 options exceeds a critical threshold. Small samples, because of the high dispersion of their sampling distribution, facilitate above-threshold contingencies. Across a broad range of parameters, the resulting small-sample advantage in terms of hits is stronger than their disadvantage in false alarms. Computer simulations and experiments support the model predictions. The relative advantage of small samples is most apparent when information loss is low, when the threshold is high relative to the ecological contingency, and when the sampling process is self-truncated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Age differences in choice satisfaction: A positivity effect in decision making.

The authors tested the possibility that older adults show a positivity effect in decision making, by giving younger and older adults the opportunity to choose 1 of 4 products and by examining the participants' satisfaction with their choice. The authors considered whether requiring participants to explicitly evaluate the options before making a choice has an effect on age differences in choice satisfaction. Older adults in the evaluation condition listed more positive and fewer negative attributes than did younger adults and were more satisfied with their decisions than were younger adults. There were no age differences among those who did not evaluate options. This evaluation-dependent elevation of satisfaction among older adults was still present when participants were contacted 2 weeks after the experiment. Age did not influence the accuracy with which participants predicted how their satisfaction would change over time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Emotions and preventive health behavior: Worry, regret, and influenza vaccination.

The role of worry, regret, and perceived risk in preventive health decisions was explored in a longitudinal questionnaire study on influenza vaccination among 428 university employees. The study yielded 3 main findings. First, ratings of anticipated worry and regret were stronger predictors of vaccination than perceived risk and mediated the effect of risk on vaccination. Second, the anticipated level of emotions differed systematically from experienced emotions, such that vaccinated individuals anticipated more regret and less worry than they actually experienced. Third, anticipated and experienced emotions had implications for subsequent vaccination decisions. Those who did not vaccinate in the 1st year but had high levels of worry and regret were likely to be vaccinated the following year. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Decision quality (always) increases with the size of information samples—provided that the decision rule is statistically valid: Comment on Fiedler and Kareev (2006).

Fiedler and Kareev (2006) showed that small samples can, in principle, outperform large samples in terms of the quality of contingency-based binary choice. The 1st part of this comment critically examines these authors' claim that this small sample advantage (SSA) contradicts Bernoulli's law of large numbers and concludes that this claim is unwarranted. The 2nd part of the comment provides insight into the etiology of the SSA and points to the following as necessary conditions for the SSA's occurrence: (a) the statistical invalidity of the underlying threshold-based decision algorithm and (b) the particular payoff scheme underlying the definition of the decisions' quality. Together, these 2 factors explain how better information provided by larger samples is translated into worse decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Ethnic diversity and distributed information in group decision making: The importance of information elaboration.

Ethnic diversity may impede groups' use of distributed information in decision making. This is not so much because diversity interferes with groups' ability to reach agreement, but because ethnic diversity may disrupt the elaboration (exchange and integration) of distributed information. The authors find evidence for this proposition in an experiment (N = 63 groups) in which ethnically diverse groups are shown to benefit more from instructions emphasizing information integration than ethnically homogeneous groups when dealing with distributed information, whereas neither ethnic diversity nor information integration instruction affected decision making performance in groups with fully shared information. These effects were mediated by a behavioral measure of group information elaboration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The aging decision maker: Cognitive aging and the adaptive selection of decision strategies.

Are older adults' decision abilities fundamentally compromised by age-related cognitive decline? Or can they adaptively select decision strategies? One study (N = 163) investigated the impact of cognitive aging on the ability to select decision strategies as a function of environment structure. Participants made decisions in either an environment that favored the use of information-intensive strategies or one favoring the use of simple, information-frugal strategies. Older adults tended to (a) look up less information and take longer to process it and (b) use simpler, less cognitively demanding strategies. In accordance with the idea that age-related cognitive decline leads to reliance on simpler strategies, measures of fluid intelligence explained age-related differences in information search and strategy selection. Nevertheless, both young and older adults seem to be equally adapted decision makers in that they adjust their information search and strategy selection as a function of environment structure, suggesting that the aging decision maker is an adaptive one. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The impact of depression on social economic decision making.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 119(3) of Journal of Abnormal Psychology (see record 2010-15289-020). In the article, the last revision received date printed on the final page of the article was incorrect due to an error in the production process. The correct publication dates are as follows: Received April 14, 2009; Revision received November 6, 2009; Accepted November 9, 2009.] Although the role of emotion in social economic decision making has been increasingly recognized, the impact of mood disorders, such as depression, on such decisions has been surprisingly neglected. To address this gap, 15 depressed and 23 nondepressed individuals completed a well-known economic task, in which they had to accept or reject monetary offers from other players. Although depressed individuals reported a more negative emotional reaction to unfair offers, they accepted significantly more of these offers than did controls. A positive relationship was observed in the depressed group, but not in controls, between acceptance rates of unfair offers and resting cardiac vagal control, a physiological index of emotion regulation capacity. The discrepancy between depressed individuals' increased emotional reactions to unfair offers and their decisions to accept more of these offers contrasts with recent findings that negative mood in nondepressed individuals can lead to lower acceptance rates. This suggests distinct biasing processes in depression, which may be related to higher reliance on regulating negative emotion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Making choices impairs subsequent self-control: A limited-resource account of decision making, self-regulation, and active initiative.

The current research tested the hypothesis that making many choices impairs subsequent self-control. Drawing from a limited-resource model of self-regulation and executive function, the authors hypothesized that decision making depletes the same resource used for self-control and active responding. In 4 laboratory studies, some participants made choices among consumer goods or college course options, whereas others thought about the same options without making choices. Making choices led to reduced self-control (i.e., less physical stamina, reduced persistence in the face of failure, more procrastination, and less quality and quantity of arithmetic calculations). A field study then found that reduced self-control was predicted by shoppers' self-reported degree of previous active decision making. Further studies suggested that choosing is more depleting than merely deliberating and forming preferences about options and more depleting than implementing choices made by someone else and that anticipating the choice task as enjoyable can reduce the depleting effect for the first choices but not for many choices. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Impacts on decision making of executives: Probabilities versus outcomes.

The determinants of decision making of executives are of special interest for companies. For a long time choices have been investigated based on theories that assume an equal impact of expected outcomes and expected probabilities (Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1953, Savage 1954, Kahneman and Tversky 1979). The influence of probabilities in decision processes is, however, questioned by a growing body of research (Rottenstreich and Kivetz 2006, Shapira 1995, March and Shapira 1987, 1992). To monitor the information acquisition process of board members and high-ranking executives in the German insurance industry we conducted 51 personal interviews, which included computer-aided simulations. These simulations clearly and objectively support former statements of executives (Shapira 1995) that they focus more on the amount of decision outcomes than on the corresponding probabilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Performance benefits of depression: Sequential decision making in a healthy sample and a clinically depressed sample.

Previous research reported conflicting results concerning the influence of depression on cognitive task performance. Whereas some studies reported that depression enhances performance, other studies reported negative or null effects. These discrepant findings appear to result from task variation, as well as the severity and treatment status of participant depression. To better understand these moderating factors, we study the performance of individuals—in a complex sequential decision task similar to the secretary problem—who are nondepressed, depressed, and recovering from a major depressive episode. We find that depressed individuals perform better than do nondepressed individuals. Formal modeling of participants' decision strategies suggested that acutely depressed participants had higher thresholds for accepting options and made better choices than either healthy participants or those recovering from depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

The emergence of coherence over the course of decision making.

Previous research has indicated that decision making is accompanied by an increase in the coherence of assessments of the factors related to the decision alternatives. In the present study, the authors investigated whether this coherence shift is obtained before people commit to a decision, and whether it is obtained in the course of a number of other processing tasks. College students were presented with a complex legal case involving multiple conflicting arguments. Participants rated agreement with the individual arguments in isolation before seeing the case and after processing it under various initial sets, including playing the role of a judge assigned to decide the case. Coherence shifts were observed when participants were instructed to delay making the decision (Experiment 1), to memorize the case (Experiment 2), and to comprehend the case (Experiment 3). The findings support the hypothesis that a coherence-generating mechanism operates in a variety of processing tasks, including decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Motivated decision making: Effects of activation and self-centrality of values on choices and behavior.

Six studies examined the value-behavior relation and focused on motivational properties of values, the self, and value activation. Priming environmental values enhanced attention to and the weight of information related to those values, which resulted in environmentally friendly consumer choices. This only occurred if these values were central to the self-concept. Value-congruent choices were also found in response to countervalue behavior in an unrelated context. Donating behavior congruent with central altruistic values was found as a result of enhanced self-focus, thus demonstrating the importance of the self in the value-behavior relation. The external validity of the value-centrality measure and its distinction from attitudes were demonstrated in the prediction of voting. Values were thus found to give meaning to, energize, and regulate value-congruent behavior, but only if values were cognitively activated and central to the self. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On racial diversity and group decision making: Identifying multiple effects of racial composition on jury deliberations.

This research examines the multiple effects of racial diversity on group decision making. Participants deliberated on the trial of a Black defendant as members of racially homogeneous or heterogeneous mock juries. Half of the groups were exposed to pretrial jury selection questions about racism and half were not. Deliberation analyses supported the prediction that diverse groups would exchange a wider range of information than all-White groups. This finding was not wholly attributable to the performance of Black participants, as Whites cited more case facts, made fewer errors, and were more amenable to discussion of racism when in diverse versus all-White groups. Even before discussion, Whites in diverse groups were more lenient toward the Black defendant, demonstrating that the effects of diversity do not occur solely through information exchange. The influence of jury selection questions extended previous findings that blatant racial issues at trial increase leniency toward a Black defendant. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The perceived diversity heuristic: The case of pseudodiversity.

One of the normative ways to decrease the risk of a pool with uncertainty prospects is to diversify its resources. Thus, decision makers are advised not to put all their eggs in one basket. The authors suggest that decision makers use a perceived diversity heuristic (PDH) to evaluate the risk of a pool by intuitively assessing the diversity of its sources. This heuristic yields biased judgments in cases of pseudodiversity, in which the perceived diversity of a pool is enhanced, although this fact does not change the pool's normative values. The first 3 studies introduce 2 independent sources of pseudodiversity—distinctiveness and multiplicity—showing that these two sources can lead to overdiversification under conditions of gain. In another set of 3 studies, the authors examine the effect of framing on diversification level. The results support the PDH predictions, according to which diversity seeking is obtained under conditions of gain, whereas diversity aversion is obtained under conditions of loss. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Interpersonal decision making: The resolution of a dyadic conflict.

"The cooperative resolution of a dyadic conflict was studied as a special case of decision making. Two subjects were required to select a joint decision. The instructions and the task were designed to induce a reasoning set and achievement orientation. The efficiency of the joint decisions was related to the type of choice situation (conflict), the magnitude of individual differences, and the nature and amount of interpersonal influence (interaction). Latency and rationality of choice were the measures of efficiency. Maximal inefficiency was associated with the possibility of gambling, outcomes of loss rather than of gain, moderate individual differences, increasing degrees of verbal interaction, and a weak leader-follower relationship. The dyadic resolution of a decision conflict was conservative in strategy." From Psyc Abstracts 36:01:3GE14A. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Crisis decision theory: Decisions in the face of negative events.

How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the process of responding to negative events: (a) assessing the severity of the negative event, (b) determining response options, and (c) evaluating response options. The author reviews and organizes the relevant research on factors that shape information processing at each stage and that ultimately predict decisions in the face of negative events. Finally, the author presents a critique of crisis decision theory and discusses areas for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)