工程项目管理中的风险管理分析

文章主要从个人对风险的概念、风险的特征、如何识别风险、分析风险、应对风险等认识出发,谈谈如何有效地控制风险、如何从项目管理的角度出发,对项目风险管理过程中的风险问题给出阐述.     

Skunkworks Approach to Project Management

Three new product development programs attempting to meet challenging targets for time-to-market, quality, and cost were in urgent need of space and facilities. A decision was made to reengineer a light commercial building 50 miles from the main research and development and manufacturing facility. This satellite facility that housed a supplier of electroformed parts to another original equipment manufacturer would need to be entirely retrofitted to accommodate the research and development and manufacturing requirements of the four groups. The existing corporate facilities engineering group was unable to deliver the array of requests generated by the product development programs. This included 31 different projects, ranging from clean rooms and labs to air handling systems and offices. A project management team was spun off with the directive to meet customer requirements on time and within budget—even if it meant breaking rules. The project had many of the earmarks of a “skunkworks,” the concept originally developed by Lockheed Martin, as a way to quickly develop solutions by bypassing some of the time-consuming bureaucracy and allowing the team to make ad hoc decisions. The skunkworks project management team was able to deliver the projects on time and within budget by: (1) adhering to a clear focus on their mission; (2) including extensive up-front planning efforts; (3) critically analyzing customer needs; (4) leveraging project overlaps; (5) involving suppliers early; (6) empowering the team; and (7) breaking rules. Many of the lessons learned from this project are being treated as organizational learning and are currently being incorporated into other facilities engineering groups to improve their operations.     

Operative Approach to Agricultural Drought Risk Management

In a companion paper, the agricultural drought economic risk assessment (ADERA) model was described. ADERA studies agricultural drought not only in terms of deficit soil water content and its frequency and severity (as in the traditional approach) but also in terms of net benefit reduction and vulnerability. The relationship between drought index, crop yield, and crop economic net benefit is modeled and three threshold levels are considered: the critical water content; the critical impact in terms of net benefit; and its critical return period (i.e., frequency) above which the soil-climate unit is considered unsuitable for the cultivation of a specific crop. These critical levels are used in long-term action planning as the triggers for different risk classes. The rapidity with which the critical impact is reached is considered indicative of the crop vulnerability, and real-time monitoring of the impact evolution (short-term actions) is also implemented. Initially ADERA was applied at only one point (soil-crop-climate unit), but because agricultural drought is by definition a wide area phenomenon, the model must be validated in other units and then used to evaluate the drought area extension (risk map). In this paper, generalization, demonstration, and guidance on the application of ADERA are given with reference to rainfed sunflower and sorghum crops in six soil-climate units in central Italy for which time series for yield (obtained in experimental plots where the water scarcity was the principal factor limiting the final yield) since 1978 is available. The application of ADERA made it possible to quantify the vulnerability class and the corresponding risk class for the single unit (long-term action planning). The analysis results confirm that typically for the selected crops the critical impact has a low risk and a low vulnerability. In fact sunflower and sorghum are rainfed crops widely cultivated in the area under investigation. Moreover, the results show that each risk class is present only within a specific cost range, in particular the upper and lower limits, and the size of each cost range varies according to the different units; the occurrence of a specific risk class and vulnerability level is highly correlated with the selected triggers, in particular with the critical net benefit (for an increment of which above the corresponding cost range, a given soil-climate unit can become unsuitable for the cultivation of a specific crop); the critical water content is a normal occurrence event for all the units analyzed, with the crop water stress onset date always around 40% of the growing period being a typical characteristic of the specific area, of the two crops and of the selected drought index. The practical usefulness of the impact monitoring procedure was stressed by comparing its progressive evolution in the cases of both a rainfed crop and of a rescue irrigation carried out at a selected and opportune date. In the latter case the impact was reduced below the critical level.     

Using Risk Analysis to Determine Construction Project Contingencies

A contingency allowance is an amount of money used to provide for uncertainties associated with a construction project. Traditionally, it is a percentage addition on top of the base estimate. Estimating using risk analysis (ERA) is a methodology that can be used to substantiate the contingency by identifying uncertainties and estimating their financial implications. A study of the effect of ERA was carried out to compare the variability and consistency of the contingency estimates between non-ERA and ERA projects. This paper presents results of a survey that compares a total of 287 non-ERA and 45 ERA projects. The results show a highly significant difference in variation and consistency between these groups. It indicates successful use of the ERA method for public works projects to reduce unnecessary and exaggerated allowance for risk. However, the contingency allowance for ERA projects was still considered high. Improvement and refinement of the ERA method as well as recommendations on capital budgeting policy are suggested.     

Problem-Based Learning Approach to Construction Management Teaching

This paper describes construction management teaching for the Master of Engineering in civil engineering course at the University of Glasgow in the United Kingdom. This course is a 5-yr undergraduate degree accredited by the Institution of Civil Engineers for membership in the Institution subject to graduates satisfying the appropriate postgraduate training objectives. Construction management teaching takes place in the third, fourth, and fifth years of the degree and is structured to make effective use of both traditional and problem-based learning teaching methods. Examples are given of two problem-based learning courses used in the fourth and fifth year of the degree course. Both are based on complex construction projects and provide students with the opportunity to apply and synthesis knowledge gained on the traditionally taught third year course. Formal feedback from students and informal feedback from local industry suggests that the courses are meeting their overall objective of producing graduates with relevant knowledge and skills in construction management.     

工程项目管理中的成本管理

工程项目成本管理是为保障项目实际发生的成本不超过项目预算而开展的项目资源计划、项目成本估算、项目预算编制和项目预算控制等方面的管理活动。是保证施工企业正常经营的重要的基础管理工作。     

Integrated Methodology for Project Risk Management

This article presents a generic project risk management process that has been particularized for construction projects from the point of view of the owner and the consultant who may be assisting the owner. The process could also be adapted to the needs of other project participants, and many points referred to in the article can be directly applied to them. Any project risk management process must be tailored to the particular circumstances of the project and of the organization undertaking it. First, the article explains a complete or generic project risk management process to be undertaken by organizations with the highest level of risk management maturity in the largest and most complex construction projects. After that, factors influencing possible simplifications of the generic process are identified, and simplifications are proposed for some cases. Then the application to a real project is summarized. As a final validation, a Delphi analysis has been developed to assess the project risk management methodology explained here, and the results are presented.     

施工企业工程项目成本管理

文章分析了工程项目成本中心的改变引起成本管理的变化,针对工程项目成本管理存在的问题,提出加强成本预测、成本控制、建立健全"责、权、利"相结合的项目施工奖罚机制等项目成本控制的管理方法。施工企业加强项目成本的控制,增加施工企业的经济效益。     

浅谈施工项目的物料管控

物料管理和控制是整个施工项目生产管理的核心内容。管理好物料,对于项目施工的成本、利润、工程质量乃至后续的发展具有决定性作用。本文通过对物资管控内容的分析,探索提高施工项目物料管控能力的途径。     

浅谈工程总承包项目采购风险管理工作

EPC工程总承包模式有利于整体方案不断优化,能有效克服设计、采购、施工相互制约和脱节的矛盾,有利于项目管理在设计、采购、施工各阶段工作的合理深度交叉。本文以采购管理人员角度,以国内工程总承包项目采购执行阶段的风险管理为研究对象,以风险识别、风险控制的研究思路,提出风险控制措施,降低产生损失的可能性,促进项目达成预定目标。     

投资项目风险管理探讨

风险及风险管理的概念,风险的危害,风险评估的意义,风险评估工作,加强风险管理。     

Prototype Web-Based Construction Project Management System

This paper presents a conceptual model of a metadata-based information system for data exchange among Web-based documents for construction project management. The system retrieves useful data from the original documents, reorganizes the information according to specific tasks or users, and displays the information in an integrated web page. The study identifies the comprehensive functional requirements from existing Web-based collaboration systems, and finds out new user requirements by way of a Web-based survey in Singapore. Based on the requirement studies, a prototype model is developed using unified modeling language. Implementation of the conceptual model uses extensible markup language technology. Discussions on major concerns about information security, data accessibility, and service quality are included in this paper.     

浅析建设施工的合同管理

介绍了合同管理的主要任务,合同管理是项目管理的核心,合同管理工作始终贯穿于项目管理的全过程。合同分配着工程任务,在项目中,目标和计划的落实是通过合同来实现的。阐述了合同管理的意义和作用,针对合同管理中出现的合同法律体系不完善、不重视合同文本分析、合同管理意识淡薄、缺乏有效的分包合同管理、不重视合同归档管理等问题提出了一些建议和对策,目的旨在加强建筑施工企业的合同管理,维护企业的合法权益。     

Authority Structures for Construction Project Management

Many practitioners believe that how one organizes to support a major construction project will have a significant impact on the successful completion of the project. This paper provides a primer on authority structures. The basic corporate organizational forms are described and construction examples are given. The basic authority structures for project management are also described. These forms are the functional, pure project, and matrix. For each form, the advantages and disadvantages as they relate to the project manager's ability to support the project are cited. Nine factors that influence the choice of authority structure are discussed. The role of the project manager is described. His effectiveness as a manager is related to the organizational form, hierarchy within the organization, authority gap, management style, and the ability to resolve conflict. Six principles for developing a project organization and selecting a project manager are given.     

浅析总承包工程项目风险管理

工程建设总承包作为国家在工程建设领域积极倡导的模式，逐步流行于当今建筑市场；在充分发挥工程总承包的优势的同时，它的风险也逐步凸现出来，如何认识、评估、避免和控制工程总承包带来的风险已成为当务之急。本文结合工程总承包的基本情况以及工程项目的风险管理，对总承包工程项目风险进行分析，并浅析相应对策。     

浅谈EPC管理模式在建设项目管理中的运用

工程建设项目不仅涉及项目管理的理论和模式,而且也涉及发包方与承包方及其他参与者之间的责、权、利的合同关系,因此,工程建设项目管理模式的选用,将影响到市场主体之间的合同关系融洽程度。市场主体自身的管理机制与机构的设置,决定了管理模式的选用。某某集团公司在工程建设项目管理水平一直处于较高水平,相关部门为公司的建设和发展作出了突出的贡献。可是,随着投资规模不断加大,专业性日渐增强,现有的管理机制与机构出现了不相适宜的迹象。针对集团公司工程项目管理的状况和工作中遇到的问题,结合EPC总承包项目管理模式,讨论了集团公司各相关部门在工程建设项目管理中如何正确定位的问题,提出了解决问题的建议。     

OO Information Model for Construction Project Management

Recently, the writers developed a general and powerful mathematical model for scheduling construction projects. An optimization formulation was presented with the goal of minimizing the direct construction cost. The nonlinear optimization problem was solved by the recently patented neural dynamics model of Adeli and Park. In this paper an object-oriented (OO) information model is presented for construction scheduling, cost optimization, and change order management (CONSCOM) based on the new construction scheduling model. The goal is to lay the foundation for a new generation of flexible, powerful, maintainable, and reusable software system for the solution of construction scheduling problems. The model is presented as a domain-specific development framework using the Microsoft Foundation Class library and utilizing the software reuse feature of the framework. The framework reuse architecture is more flexible and powerful than other reuse techniques such as components and patterns. A companion paper presents the implementation of the OO information model in a prototype software system for management of construction projects, called CONSCOM.     

Optimal Project Organizational Structure for Construction Management

This study relies on the trend model to investigate various modes of coordination among team members of construction projects. According to the project network developed based on the characteristics of a project, the trend model establishes an activity relationship matrix (ARM) to identify the activity relationships within the construction process. ARM is used to construct an organizational structure for project management and a communication resistance matrix that shows the efficiency of communication and coordination among the members of the project team. To evaluate various organizational structures and their coordination efficiencies, this study utilizes the analytical hierarchy process to quantify the strength of an organizational structure and identify the optimal structure for project management. Through quantitative modeling of communication efficiency among organizational team members, an objective function for calculating the total resistance index is used to determine the optimal organizational structure available to execute the project. This study demonstrates how the trend model may be applied in the future for evaluating the coordination efficiencies of various organizational structures.     

金隆工程建设与生产管理实践

金隆工程是采用合资形式对铜陵公司第一冶炼厂进行改造的项目，该项目在未被国家正式批准的，依靠铜陵公司自身力量做了大量的前期准备工作，如筹集资金、合资谈判、设备及技术咨询、施工场地“三通一平”等，一旦国家批准开工，即引入监理机制，集中人力、财力打“歼灭战”，从而大大缩短了建设工期。工厂建成后，依靠科学管理，很快达到设计能力。