The short- and long-run efficiency of energy,precious metals,and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long and short-run relationship between spot and futures prices of the energy, precious metals, and base metals markets. We analyze daily data from January 1985 to February 2019. The empirical findings based on the cointegration test, which follows a nonlinear process, suggest that the spot prices of energy and metals assets have long-run relationships with their futures prices. Nonparametric Granger causality test results also indicate bi-directional causality among futures and spot prices. These findings indicate that the energy and metals markets are informationally efficient in the sense of Fama (1970).     

The macrodynamics of energy shocks,short- and long-run

Short-run and long-run energy–economy interactions are fundamentally different. Yet the long run is reached only through the short run, and is determined by it. This paper shows how the two may be happily married while preserving the differences. Optimal growth theory provides the long-run framework, but it is here extended to include energy as a factor of production. Traditional aggregate supply/aggregate demand analysis provides the short-run framework. The bridge between the two is investment. How the short run becomes the long run is illustrated by a simulation model of the OECD economy as it responds to a shock.     

Dynamics of oil price,precious metal prices and the exchange rate in the long-run

We examine the relationship between the oil price, prices of precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) and the US dollar/British Pound exchange rate using parametric and non-parametric modelling over a 135-year period. For the parametric model, we employ a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and find non-linearity and asymmetries in the long-term relationship between the oil-gold price and oil-silver price pairs during the ‘typical regime’, in which the majority of observations lie. Non-linear Granger causality suggests evidence of bidirectional and unidirectional causality. For the non-parametric model, we employ Local Linear (LL) non-parametric regression to relax the assumptions regarding functional form. The relationship between the oil price and each of the precious metal prices and the exchange rate exhibit non-linearities. The relationship between precious metal prices and the oil price is positive and generally increasing over time, while the LL estimates for the exchange rate are negative and then positive and highly non-linear.     

Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil,precious metal,and agricultural commodity futures markets

This paper examines spillover effects among six commodity futures markets – gold, silver, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, corn, wheat, and rice – by employing the multivariate DECO-GARCH model and the spillover index. Specifically, we investigate the dynamics of return and volatility spillover indices to reveal the intensity and direction of transmission during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. Our empirical results are as follows. First, we estimate a positive equicorrelation between commodity futures market returns and find that it increased sharply during the crises. This effect can persist during periods of economic and financial turmoil, diminishing the benefits of international portfolio diversification for investors. Second, we identify bidirectional return and volatility spillovers across commodity futures markets, and find more pronounced trends in their levels in the post-crisis period. This indicates the strong impact of spillovers during crisis periods. Third, both gold and silver are information transmitters to other commodity futures markets, while the remaining four commodity futures investigated were receivers of spillovers during recent periods of financial stress. Finally, we analyse the optimal portfolio weights and time-varying hedge ratios between metal and other commodities futures markets. Overall, our findings provide new insights into channels of information transmission, which may improve investment decisions and inform portfolio investors' trading strategies.     

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency

Increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, reducing oil dependence, and achieving a sustainable global energy system. The tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost-effective energy efficiency options has been called the “efficiency gap” or “energy paradox.” The market for energy efficiency in new, energy-using durable goods, however, appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value. This paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers. This framework relies on the theory of context-dependent preferences. The uncertainty-loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable, making it potentially correctible by policy measures. The welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved. Data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars, taken from a National Research Council study, illustrate how an apparently cost-effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to loss-averse consumers.     

The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages

The world prices of some food and energy products have followed similar large swings in recent years. We investigate the long-run relationship between these prices using a world Computable General Equilibrium model with detailed representations of food and energy markets. Particular attention is paid to specifying macro-economic linkages which have often been overlooked in recent analysis and debate. We find that the omission of these macro-economic linkages has a substantial bearing on this relationship. A positive relationship due to the cost push effect has been identified in most analysis, but we find that the introduction of the real income effect may indeed imply a negative relationship between world food and energy prices.     

Causality between energy and output in the long-run

Though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use Granger causes economic output or vice versa, it is fairly inconclusive. Almost all existing studies use relatively short time series, or panels with a relatively small time dimension. We apply Granger causality and cointegration techniques to a Swedish time series dataset spanning 150 years to test whether increases in energy use and energy quality have driven economic growth or vice versa. We show that these techniques are very sensitive to variable definition, choice of additional variables in the model, sample periods and size, and the introduction of structural breaks. The relationship between energy and growth may also have changed over time – energy causes output in the full sample while output causes energy use in recent smaller samples. Energy prices have a more robust causal impact on both energy use and output.     

Renewable energy and the need for local energy markets

In Denmark, a technological change towards cleaner energy technologies has been developed and implemented since around 1975. This development has had two phases: The first from 1975 until around 1996, when wind power was a niche production that supplied only 3.5% of the electricity consumption and was brought close to cost competitiveness, and the present second phase, in which wind power supplies an increasing share (in 2004 18.6%) of electricity consumption along with combined heat and power plants, which supply around 50% of consumption. Denmark succeeded in overcoming the first phase, and a large green energy technology cluster was established. During the second phase, new difficulties and challenges have arisen, both with regard to local public acceptance and the need for integrating an increasing percentage of fluctuating energy sources into the energy system. In this Phase 2, a new offensive green energy policy should be introduced in order to secure both public and political acceptance. Local markets should be established in order to secure the technical integration of a large proportion of wind power and other fluctuating renewable energy sources into the energy system.     

Integrated energy systems and local energy markets

Significant benefits are connected with an increase in the flexibility of the Danish energy system. On the one hand, it is possible to benefit from trading electricity with neighbouring countries, and on the other, Denmark will be able to make better use of wind power and other types of renewable energy in the future. This paper presents the analysis of different ways of increasing flexibility in the Danish energy system by the use of local regulation mechanisms. This strategy is compared with the opposite extreme, i.e. trying to solve all balancing problems via electricity trade on the international market. The conclusion is that it is feasible for the Danish society to include the CHP plants in the balancing of fluctuating wind power. There are major advantages in equipping small CHP plants as well as the large CHP plants with heat pumps. By doing so, it will be possible to increase the share of wind power from the present 20 to 40% without causing significant problems of imbalance between electricity consumption and production. Investment in increased flexibility is in itself profitable. Furthermore, the feasibility of wind power is improved.     

On the predictability of energy commodity markets by an entropy-based computational method

This paper proposes a novel computational method for assessing the predictability of commodity market time series, by predicting the entropy of the series under investigation. Assessing the predictability of a time series is the first mandatory step in order to further apply low-risk and efficient price forecasting methods. According to conventional entropy-based analysis (where the entropy is always ex-post estimated), high entropy values characterize unpredictable series, while more stable series exhibits lesser entropy values. Here, we predict (i.e. ex-ante) the entropy regarding the future behavior of a series, based on the observation of historical data. Our prediction is performed according to the optimum least squares minimization algorithm, usually used in many computational aspects of management science. Preliminary results, applied to energy commodity futures, show the effectiveness of the proposed method for application to energy market time series.     

Non precious metal catalysts for the PEM fuel cell cathode

Low temperature fuel cells, such as the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, have required the use of highly active catalysts to promote both the fuel oxidation at the anode and oxygen reduction at the cathode. Attention has been particularly given to the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) since this appears to be responsible for major voltage losses within the cell. To provide the requisite activity and minimse losses, precious metal catalysts (containing Pt) continue to be used for the cathode catalyst. At the same time, much research is in progress to reduce the costs associated with Pt cathode catalysts, by identifying and developing non-precious metal alternatives. This review outlines classes of non-precious metal systems that have been investigated over the past 10 years. Whilst none of these so far have provided the performance and durability of Pt systems some, such as transition metals supported on porous carbons, have demonstrated reasonable electrocatalytic activity. Of the newer catalysts, iron-based nanostructures on nitrogen-functionalised mesoporous carbons are beginning to emerge as possible contenders for future commercial PEMFC systems.     

World energy markets and the developing countries

Primary energy consumption in the developing countries has been increasing rapidly in the last ten years, giving rise to the prospect that these countries will play an even greater role in world energy markets. This paper describes the adjustments to higher petroleum prices that have taken place in the developing countries and looks at their likely future role. For the purpose of exposition, the developing countries are divided into oil-exporting and oil-importing groups. Analysis is conducted mostly at the aggregate level but fuel-specific and sectoral trends are also identified. The author notes that the experience of the last ten years suggests that the dramatic increases in international petroleum prices had a relatively minor impact on the developing countries′ total energy consumption. There was, however, a significant degree of substitution for other fuels for petroleum in the oil-importing developing countries. The prognostications for the future presented in this paper are based on the assumption that adjustments to price changes take more time in the developing countries. A reasonable degree of adjustment can be expected for the years ahead.     

On the energy efficiency of a prototype hybrid daylighting system

This paper presents the development of a method to control the light output from a prototype hybrid lighting system. This system transports daylight from a heliostat with a concentrating fresnel lens to a luminaire in a windowless room, via a large core liquid fiber optic. The main artificial lighting system is located outside of the building without the possibility for dimming due to the lamp type chosen. Consequently a control strategy is needed in order to minimize the switching cycles of the lamps (severe reduction in lamp life) while at the same time maintain the lighting levels in the interior.     

Market efficiency in the European carbon markets

In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO₂ markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO₂ markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO₂ market.     

Renewable energy and liberalised electricity markets

The UK electricity market is a liberalised market where price should reflect cost and value. How true is this for renewable energy?     

Selection of metal hydrides-based thermal energy storage: Energy storage efficiency and density targets

Thermo-chemical energy storage based on metal hydrides has gained tremendous interest in solar heat storage applications such as concentrated solar power systems (CSP) and parabolic troughs. In such systems, two metal hydride beds are connected and operating in an alternative way as energy storage or hydrogen storage. However, the selection of metal hydrides is essential for a smooth operation of these CSP systems in terms of energy storage efficiency and density. In this study, thermal energy storage systems using metal hydrides are modeled and analyzed in detail using first law of thermodynamics. For these purpose, four conventional metal hydrides are selected namely LaNi₅, Mg, Mg₂Ni and Mg₂FeH₆. The comparison of performance is made in terms of volumetric energy storage and energy storage efficiency. The effects of operating conditions (temperature, hydrogen pressure and heat transfer fluid mass flow rates) and reactor design on the aforementioned performance metrics are studied and discussed in detail. The preliminary results showed that Mg-based hydrides store energy ranging from 1.3 to 2.4 GJ m^?3 while the energy storage can be as low as 30% due to their slow intrinsic kinetics. On the other hand, coupling Mg-based hydrides with LaNi₅ allow us to recover heat at a useful temperature above 330 K with low energy density ca.500 MJ m^?3 provided suitable operating conditions are selected. The results of this study will be helpful to screen out all potentially viable hydrides materials for heat storage applications.     

World oil prices,precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.     

Reshaping markets for the benefit of energy saving

Energy saving is an important option for preventing emission of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, when energy saving is reducing the spatial and temporal density of energy consumption, it supports a rising market share of renewable energy sources. Last but not the least, energy saving plays a role in reducing the vulnerability for import dependency and supply disruptions. Despite these virtues energy saving and energy efficiency, being typically demand side options, appear to be harder to ‘sell’ than the other options which focus on the supply side. The currently prevailing market-based approach in energy policy initially brought setbacks for energy saving. The introductory article and the selected contributions to this special issue intend to show that markets can and should be shaped to the benefit of the uptake and of the potential of energy saving. To this end, all elements of the energy efficiency delivery context should be addressed in energy-saving policies. Learning, measurement and observation are important tools in this reshaping process. All contributions are based on papers of the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy 2003 Summer Study.     

浅谈建筑能耗模拟与建筑节能

建筑能耗模拟是建筑节能设计的重要技术手段。本文介绍了建筑能耗模拟的原理，模拟软件及其特点，列举了建筑能耗模拟的应用。