A probabilistic model for assessing the long-term economics of wind energy

Understanding the long-term economic impact of wind energy on electricity markets is becoming more important due to the increasing penetration of wind power in the generation mix of power systems. In this paper, we evaluate the economics of wind energy by developing a probabilistic model to compute the long-term probability distribution of market clearing prices and wind farm revenues. The power system is assumed to consist of conventional generating units and wind farms. Availabilities of the generating units and the uncertainty in the wind power output are implicitly accounted for. The effect of increasing wind power penetration on the probability distribution functions of the market price and wind farm revenues is evaluated by changing the rated capacity of the wind farm. The model is illustrated by using a power system with a 32-unit and wind farms. The superiority of the proposed probabilistic model over a deterministic one is confirmed.     

基于.net平台的电力市场仿真系统的实现

在分析浙江电力市场的运行机制的基础上,设计了基于internet的电力市场仿真系统,提出了实现方法,并在.NET平台上开发了此系统.该系统可以模拟交易日浙江电力市场的运行情况,计算当日的市场清算价(MCP)和市场交易量(MCQ),并在公司内部进行机组调度,分析各公司的利润.该系统具有可扩展性和维护性好的优点,为市场组织者和参与者提供了一种有效的辅助决策支持工具.     

水电站和蓄能电站事故旋转备用效益评估模型

本文提出了水电站和蓄能电站承担事故旋转备用时的效益评估模型和算法，其独特之处是考虑了各台机组故障之间以及机组故障与负荷变化之间的相关性和不同类型机组的技术、经济、可靠性特征，并通过概率生产模拟从生产成本和可靠性指标两方面评价方案的优劣．实例分析表明，结果是合理的，并具有较高的实用价值．     

考虑碳交易的多能互补虚拟电厂优化调度运行策略

我国地形复杂,小气候众多,可再生能源出力曲线难以预测,日益成熟的市场规则和地域性气候的差异很难支持我国的电力市场规律、安全的运行,为此,文章提出一种多能互补的源网荷储一体化虚拟电厂的优化调度策略。首先,提出在日前市场之前增加考虑可再生能源渗透率的可再生能源日前市场,让可再生能源和负荷达成双边交易,来分担可再生能源参与日前市场时不确定性带来的风险。同时对虚拟电厂参与日前市场的全过程进行建模,在日前市场中增加了出清模型来优化市场出清电价和优化各源侧的申报电价。其次,考虑负荷波动,以及渗透到日前市场的可再生能源发电量的波动性,提出考虑备用出清模型来补偿各源侧为应对这些不确定性预留备用而产生的机会成本,并将这类成本按照“谁产生的成本,谁负责”的原则进行分摊,还原成本来源情况。最后,搭建虚拟电厂内部碳交易模型,缓解发电侧碳排放交易市场的履约压力。采用粒子群优化算法算法（PSO）对模型进行优化求解,最后通过IEEE 30节点算例验证本文所述方法的有效性。结果表明,该多能互补模型能有效应对在日前市场中不同风光电发电情况和渗透率的备用需求变化,最终达到收益最大。     

电力市场中梯级水电站优化运行的研究

研究了在发电侧电力市场中梯级水电站的优化运行问题,提出了改进的网络流优化算法。该算法将梯级水电站的优化运行过程分为寻找可行流与同一时段优化出力两个阶段,在寻找可行流阶段采用经典的网流法,各梯级水电站按照相同的步长增加发电流量;在同一时段优化出力阶段采用改进的网流法,对各梯级水电站按照各自不同的步长进行优化。该算法模型简单,容易实现。算例结果表明,改进的网络流优化法计算精度高,实用性强,适用于梯级水电站优化运行的解算。     

考虑风电接入的电力系统经济调度研究综述

由于风电具有很强的随机性,风电以及风电功率的预测都有难度,因此给含风电的电力系统经济调度问题带来了很大困难,依据风电间歇性和随机性的不同处理方法以及旋转备用和风险的对目标函数的约束,从模型以及求解方法两个方面考虑风电接入下的电力系统经济调度问题,模型从确定性建模、模糊建模和概率建模三个方面论述,求解方法分为传统算法和智能算法两大类,考虑了模型的优势与不足,从寻优速度、精度和收敛性比较了算法的优缺点,讨论了模型使用各种算法解决问题的方法和途径。最后指出风电接入下的经济调度问题将来所面临的工作。     

浅论崇明三岛的风力发电

本文通过对崇明三岛有效风年小时数和风能密度等数据的分析,提出了风力发电的可行性。并且根据崇明三岛的经济发展形势提出了风力发电的重要性。另外文章也对风力发电装置的选择提出了作者自己的设想。     

促进新能源消纳的综合能源系统日前市场出清优化

风光新能源具有显著的清洁特性,可以显著降低能源行业的碳排放,然而中国弃风弃光问题依然很严峻。为了促进风光新能源消纳容量,对全国统一电力市场背景下清洁能源消纳机制展开了深入研究。分析了中国新能源消纳的工程问题,建立了包含热电联产系统、天然气锅炉、风光新能源的综合能源系统的仿真模型,以社会福利最大化为目标,提出了可以促进新能源消纳的综合能源系统日前市场出清模型。出清模型考虑了电力需求侧管理,使得出清模型具有显著的现代电力系统特征。对提出的日前市场出清模型进行仿真验证,验证了所提出清模型对于新能源消纳的积极作用。     

Application of Cost-CVaR model in determining optimal spinning reserve for wind power penetrated system

Spinning reserve (SR) is an important resource for system operators (SO) to cope with unpredictable imbalances between load and generation, which is caused by load forecast errors and unexpected deviations of wind power. The increased installed capacity of wind power adds the difficulty to predict total amount of injected power accurately and increase risk of load loss and wind curtailment. In view of large wind power penetrated in system, the paper proposes a Cost-CVaR model to determine optimal reserve requirements in electricity market. CVaR is applied to evaluate the risk caused by the uncertainties of load and wind power forecast. Risk management tool is proposed to make a reasonable tradeoff between risks and profits at various risk levels. The model is tested on a regional grid in China. Then the proposed method is compared with probabilistic and deterministic method. The results demonstrate the usefulness and efficiency of the proposed method.     

从能源现状看中国能源的战略储备

21世纪的头20年是中国经济社会发展的重要战略机遇期,对能源供应的总量及其质量提出了较高要求。中国目前的一次能源消费量居世界第二位,能源安全问题在全面建设和谐社会目标中的地位越来越突出。通过分析中国目前所处的能源状况,论述能源战略储备的重要性。     

高比例新能源下电能量与平衡调节服务联合运营与出清机制

随着规模化新能源的接入,电网安全保供形势日益严峻。在此背景下,计及新能源的安全外部成本,提出了电能量与平衡调节服务的联合运营与出清机制。将电能量成本与安全外部成本耦合叠加,通过联合出清,以市场化方式精准组织平衡调节服务;以合理的价格体现电能的能量价值与安全价值,从而给出明确的价格信号促进平衡责任的分担。最后,通过算例分析,验证了所提运营机制在经济性与鲁棒性方面均具有显著优势。     

50 kW风光互补电站设计

离网型风光互补电站是针对许多边远牧区，在远离大电网，处于无电状态，人烟烯少，用电负荷低且交通不便的情况下，利用本地区充裕的太阳能、风能建设的一种经济实用性电站。文章分析了阳康乡地区气象资源，提出了供电优化设计方案，由此从50kW风光互补电站的设计中指出了其的合理和实用性，解决了此地区的用电需求。     

Simulations of wind power integration with complementary power system planning tools

This paper describes a procedure for simulations of wind power integration in a deregulated power system with two complementary planning tools. The first planning tool is a joint market model (JMM) taking into account the day-ahead market and the regulating power market using 1 h average time steps. The second tool is the stepwise power flow (SPF) model simulating the frequency deviations and power balancing within the hour, e.g. based on 5 min average time steps. Input data is shared by the two tools, and the simulation results from JMM are used in the SPF simulations to ensure consistent results. JMM simulations are performed using two different scenarios for the development in the Nordic power system. The first scenario is the most likely development for 2010, and the second is a high-wind scenario assuming 10% of the electricity consumption in the Nordic countries supplied by wind power. Subsequently, a worst case 1 h period is selected from the JMM simulations, converted to the more detailed grid representation in SPF, and finally simulated and analysed with SPF.     

两种第三方主体参与的现货市场出清模式比较

随着高比例新能源接入电力系统,常规机组开机减少,系统备用容量不足,需要充分挖掘第三方主体的备用能力。本文提出并比较了第三方主体参与备用辅助服务的2种现货市场出清模式：电能量和机组备用联合出清+第三方主体备用单独出清模式、电能量和两侧备用联合出清模式。论文首先结合市场发展阶段、备用资源紧缺程度等方面分析了2种出清模式的优缺点;然后,给出了2种市场模式下的出清模型,并分析了第三方主体参与对市场出清结果的影响及其费用和收益情况。最后,采用改进的IEEE30节点系统进行了仿真,结果表明电能量和两侧备用联合出清模式可以更加充分调用第三方主体的备用,降低系统发电和备用总成本。     

Impact of hybrid wind and hydroelectric power generation on the operational performance of isolated power systems

In recent years, electric power systems are adopting new technologies in their structure in order to achieve better performance and efficiency in the electricity production, transmission and distribution. This fact together with additional financial incentives being developed in many countries have increased considerably the number of power generating units using renewable energy sources. However, a major drawback of these units is their dependency on unexpected weather conditions such as the wind speed and the rainfalls in the respective hydrologic areas. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of wind parks and hydroelectric power plants on the reliability and operational performance of isolated power systems. A probabilistic methodology has been developed for simulating more efficiently and realistically the reliability and operational performance of these power systems. This is an effective computational methodology that is based on the Monte-Carlo sequential simulation approach and it evaluates the reliability and operational indices of the conventional thermal and hydroelectric power plants, the wind parks and the overall indices of the system. An appropriate model based on the power system of a Greek island is used and the obtained results are presented for a number of case studies representing various planning and operating schemes in order to deduce the optimal one.     

浅谈风电产业中的风能技术

文章对风电技术和风光互补技术进行了介绍。     

跨区域省间富余可再生能源现货交易优化出清模型

跨区域省间富余可再生能源现货交易采用市场化手段有效促进了可再生能源消纳.在保证出清计算效率的前提下,如何提升出清模型的适应性和拓展性,在跨区域省间现货出清中考虑更复杂的电网运行约束,已成为省间现货市场进一步发展的关键问题之一.文中提出了跨区域省间富余可再生能源现货交易优化出清模型.结合中国特高压交直流混联电网特点和跨区...