Quantifying CO2 abatement costs in the power sector

CO₂ cap-and-trade mechanisms and CO₂ emission taxes are becoming increasingly widespread. To assess the impact of a CO₂ price, marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are a commonly used tool by policy makers, providing a direct graphical link between a CO₂ price and the expected abatement. However, such MACCs can suffer from issues related to robustness and granularity. This paper focuses on the relation between a CO₂ emission cost and CO₂ emission reductions in the power sector. The authors present a new methodology that improves the understanding of the relation between a CO₂ cost and CO₂ abatement. The methodology is based on the insight that CO₂ emissions in the power sector are driven by the composition of the conventional power portfolio, the residual load and the generation costs of the conventional units. The methodology addresses both the robustness issue and the granularity issue related to MACCs. The methodology is based on a bottom-up approach, starting from engineering knowledge of the power sector. It offers policy makers a new tool to assess CO₂ abatement options. The methodology is applied to the Central Western European power system and illustrates possible interaction effects between, e.g., fuel switching and renewables deployment.     

二氧化碳排放量化方法探讨

目前,通用的量化二氧化碳排放方法是IPCC排放因子法,但IPCC的排放因子是否适用于我国的排放源有待商榷。利用现场监测的烟道内的温度、压力、二氧化碳浓度、一氧化碳浓度、烟气流速、水蒸气体积百分比等参数,采用质量比法、时间比法、负荷法以及IPCC排放因子法等多种方法,对某企业不同时间段内的二氧化碳排放情况进行量化。结果表明,如果国内企业采用国际通用的量化二氧化碳排放方法,则得到的二氧化碳排放量偏大。为了能更准确地获得燃烧排放源的二氧化碳排放情况,需要采用现场监测的方法。质量比法与IPCC排放因子法的量化结果,其准确性严重依赖于燃料计量数据的准确性,不推荐采用。时间比法的量化结果虽然优于质量比法,但不适合用于量化较长时间段内的二氧化碳排放量。负荷法由于考虑了负荷的影响,其量化结果更为可靠。建议企业通过监测手段,采用负荷法量化燃烧排放源的二氧化碳排放量。为了尽可能减小由客观因素带来的排放量的不确定性,建议选择不同时间段、不同工况多次监测量化燃烧排放源某年度的二氧化碳排放量。     

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria

Algeria is one of the most important CO₂ emitters among developing countries and the third among African countries. It pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2030. However, complying with this target may be a difficult task without compromising economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in Algeria, taking into account energy use, electricity consumption, exports and imports. The validity of the EKC hypothesis, throughout the period from 1970 to 2010, is tested by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model extended to introduce the break points. Results confirm the EKC for Algeria. Nevertheless, the turning point is reached for a very high GDP per capita value, indicating that economic growth in Algeria will continue to increase emissions. Results also indicate that an increase in energy use and electricity consumption increase CO₂ emissions, and that exports and imports affect them negatively and positively, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to promote renewable energies and energy efficiency policies. Regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate foreign investments with which to carry out these policies. Likewise, it may be appropriate to decrease subsides in energy prices to encourage energy efficiency.     

Investigating the driving factors of regional CO2 emissions in China using the IDA-PDA-MMI method

In this paper, we systematically summarized existing research on the driving factors of CO₂ emissions and found that changes in technology gap may be one of the key driving factors of CO₂ emissions. Technology efficiency, technology progress, and technology gap were decomposed by using the Meta-frontier Malmquist index (MMI), which was then combined it with the Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA) and the Production-theoretical Decomposition Analysis (PDA). Our framework was applied to Chinese provincial data from 2000 to 2016. We identified nine factors to explain changes of regional CO₂ emissions. Results demonstrate that economic scale, energy technology efficiency, and output technology efficiency increased CO₂ emissions in Eastern, Central, and Western regions of China, with the economic scale being the largest contributor. Energy structure, energy intensity, energy technology progress, and output technology progress decreased regional CO₂ emissions, with the energy technology progress playing the strongest role. Energy technology gap and output technology gap led to an increase in CO₂ emissions in Central China and, to a lesser extent, in Western China. The effects of each driving factor on CO₂ emissions varied across provinces. Finally, policy implications are suggested to reduce CO₂ emissions in China.     

Environmental impacts and benefits of regional power grid interconnections for China

This paper describes the development of China's power industry, present situation, environmental influences and potential benefits of regional power grid interconnections in China. Power plants in China are mainly thermal, burning fossil fuels especially coal which emit a great deal of pollutants and greenhouse gases such as SO₂, NO_x and CO₂. China leads all other countries in emissions of SO₂, CO₂, and the power industry is the largest contributor to these emissions. There are a number of environmental benefits through regional power grid interconnection. That is, the construction of small electricity generation capacity would be avoided; natural resources would be used to generate electricity on a regional scale; and generating sources can be separated from centers of electricity use, which will decrease emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases and help to reduce human exposure to elevated air pollutant concentrations. Therefore, gradually enlarged power grids, and power grid interconnection, should be part of the general pattern of power system development in China.     

The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered.     

Power sector development in India with CO2 emission targets: Effects of regional grid integration and the role of clean technologies

The power sector in India at present comprises of five separate regional electricity grids having practically no integrated operation in between them. This study analyses the utility planning, environmental and economical effects of integrated power sector development at the national level in which the regional electric grids are developed and operated as one integrated system. It also examines the effects of selected CO₂ emission reduction targets in the power sector and the role of renewable power generation technologies in India. The study shows that the integrated development and operation of the power system at the national level would reduce the total cost including fuel cost by 4912 million $, total capacity addition by 2784 MW, while the emission of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x would be reduced by 231.6 (1.9%), 0.8 (0.9%), 0.4 (1.2%) million tons, respectively, during the planning horizon. Furthermore, the study shows that the expected unserved energy, one of the indices of generation system reliability, would decrease to 26 GWh under integrated national power system from 5158 GWh. As different levels of CO₂ emission reduction targets were imposed, there is a switching of generation from conventional coal plants to gas fired plants, clean coal technologies and nuclear based plants. As a result the capacity expansion cost has increased. It was found that wind power plant is most attractive and economical in the Indian perspective among the renewable options considered (Solar, wind and biomass). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing long-term impacts of increased crop productivity on atmospheric CO2

A full assessment of the impacts of land clearance and crop production on atmospheric CO2 requires a systems approach. By considering long-term soil carbon changes and fossil fuel energy inputs, we show that increased crop productivity will alleviate CO2 release to the atmosphere primarily by preventing additional land cultivation. Each hectare of cropland undergoing a simulated threefold crop productivity increase here prevents a net release on the order of 150-200 Mg C to the atmosphere over 100 years by avoiding additional land cultivation which would otherwise be required. This effective carbon sink would slowly diminish with time due to fossil fuel energy input requirements. However, future self-containment of the energy needs of high-yield crop production may displace on the order of 1.0 Pg C per year of fossil fuel carbon, in addition to the carbon sink attributable to avoided land cultivation. By avoiding land cultivation, high yield crop systems also preserve natural ecosystems.     

How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models

This paper examines the impacts of industrialization and urbanization on CO₂ emissions in China using nonparametric additive regression models and provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. The empirical results show that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between industrialization and CO₂ emissions in the three regions in China. Urbanization follows an inverted U-shaped pattern with CO₂ emissions in the eastern region, and a positive U-shaped pattern in the central region. However, the nonlinear impact of urbanization on CO₂ emissions is insignificant in the western region. As a result, the differential dynamic effects of industrialization and urbanization on CO₂ emissions in the three regions should be taken into consideration in reducing China's CO₂ emissions.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey

This paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968–2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is ?0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey.     

The relationship between energy consumption structure,economic structure and energy intensity in China

This paper investigates the long-run equilibrium relationships, temporal dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption structure, economic structure and energy intensity in China. Time series variables over the periods from 1980 to 2006 are employed in empirical tests. Cointegration tests suggest that these three variables tend to move together in the long-run. In addition, Granger causality tests indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy intensity to economic structure but not vice versa. Impulse response analysis provides reasonable evidences that one shock of the three variables will cause the periods of destabilized that followed. However, the impact of the energy consumption structure shock on energy intensity and the impact of the economic structure shock on energy consumption structure seem to be rather marginal. The findings have significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation and economic development. In order to decrease energy intensity, Chinese government must continue to reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption, increase the utilization efficiency of coal and promote the upgrade of economic structure. Furthermore, a full analysis of factors that may relate to energy intensity (e.g. energy consumption structure, economic structure) should be conducted before making energy policies.     

Inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution,carbon intensity,and energy-related CO2 reduction: Empirical evidence from China

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction, which is the central issue in addressing global warming, depends on the extent that clean energy can substitute for CO₂ emitting coal and non-energy factors can substitute for energy factor. The purposes of this paper are to empirically investigate inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution in China and to evaluate the determinants of China's energy-related carbon intensity as well as mitigation effects of carbon tax. Considering China's rapid increase in energy consumption and the slow adjustment in substitution, the two-stage estimation method and the dynamic error correction mechanism are employed in this study. The empirical results suggest substitutability among different types of energy sources as well as substitutability among energy, labor, and capital. The magnitude of cross-price elasticities indicates that the substitutions are inelastic, which limits the scope of the Chinese government to implement substitution strategy aiming at energy conservation and environmental management. China's carbon intensity declined during 1985–2012, most of which can be attributed to labor substitution and energy price increase. However, carbon-intensive technology being embodied in China's capital investment (energy consuming equipment) has contributed to the increase in carbon intensity. A carbon tax of RMB 50/tonne could reduce 332.9 million tonnes CO₂ emissions on the basis of 2012. In addition, if ignoring the feedback between inter-factor/inter-fuel substitutions, CO₂ mitigation potential would be underestimated.     

Asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in Nigeria

This study analysed the problem of energy intensity determinants in Nigeria based on the fully modified OLS and canonical cointegration regressions. These methods were preferred since they are able to deal effectively with the second-order bias problems, an often characteristics of time series data. The impacts of price of crude oil, FDI, trade openness and industry structure are asymmetric which suggests the presence of structural effects in parameters. The impact of crude oil price is negative but becomes stronger post-1989 saving .126% more in energy consumption relative to pre-1989. Also, the impacts of FDI and trade openness are negative and significant but become stronger post-1989 saving 11.2% and 0.8% more in energy consumption relative to the baseline, respectively for every one percentage point increase in FDI and trade openness. The impact of industry value-added is positive and significant but weakens after 1989 consuming 1.8% less in energy for every one percentage point increase in industry value-added relative to the baseline. The energy reducing effect of industry value-added post-1989 reflects improvements in the technical characteristics of industrial sector in Nigeria. Last, the result showed that the absorptive capability and industry characteristics of Nigeria are important determinants of how FDI affects energy intensity. This implies that a more integrated FDI programme (considering the country characteristics) rather than a ‘one-fit-all’ programme is preferable.     

Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

In this paper we investigate CO₂ emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO₂ reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO₂ emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. An assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.     

Five-year technology selection optimization to achieve specific CO2 emission reduction targets

Long-term planning for replacement of fossil fuel energy technologies with renewables is of great importance for achieving GHG emission reduction targets. The current study is focused on developing a five-year mathematical model for finding the optimal sizing of renewable energy technologies for achieving certain CO₂ emission reduction targets. A manufacturing industrial facility which uses CHP for electricity generation and natural gas for heating is considered as the base case in this work. Different renewable energy technologies are developed each year to achieve a 4.53% annual CO₂ emission reduction target. The results of this study show that wind power is the most cost-effective technology for reducing emissions in the first and second year with a cost of 44 and 69 CAD per tonne of CO₂, respectively. Hydrogen, on the other hand, is more cost-effective than wind power in reducing CO₂ emissions from the third year on. The cost of CO₂ emission reduction with hydrogen doesn't change drastically from the first year to the fifth year (107 and 130 CAD per tonne of CO₂). Solar power is a more expensive technology than wind power for reducing CO₂ emissions in all years due to lower capacity factor (in Ontario), more intermittency (requiring mores storage capacity), and higher investment cost. A hybrid wind/battery/hydrogen energy system has the lowest emission reduction cost over five years. The emission reduction cost of such hybrid system increases from 44 CAD per tonne of CO₂ in the first year to 156 CAD per tonne of CO₂ in the fifth year. The developed model can be used for long-term planning of energy systems for achieving GHG emission targets in a regions/country which has fossil fuel-based electricity and heat generation infrastructure.     

气化炉中生物质——煤共同气化的模拟研究

在气化炉内采用煤粉和生物质共气化可解决生物质不易稳定流化和生成焦油两大难题,采用流程模拟软件PROⅡ对炉内的气化过程进行了模拟计算,得到了汽氧比和氧碳比和生物质／煤比对气化过程的影响。气化炉内优化的反应条件为：反应温度1350℃,[H2O]／[O2]=0．32,[O][C]=1．05,气化得到的合成气的高位热值Qgr=7150kJ／Nm3,有效气产率为1．59Nm3／kg。     

中国减排CO2的初步分析

我国的一次能源以煤炭为主,所以必须实施煤炭现代化利用的能源发展策略,逐步替代现有以直接燃烧为主的能源利用系统。本为结合最新数据对中国的CO2排放源进行初步分析,对我国各行业煤炭消费和CO2排放构成进行预测,指出发电行业是我国推动CO2减排的重点,对我国CO2减排路线图提出了设想。     

Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions

The cost of power system rationing, which is a crucial parameter for determining optimal resilience investments, is usually estimated using reduced-form linear models or ordinary input-output analysis. However, such methods do not properly address either consumers' rational reactions to rationing policy or policy design nonlinearities. To solve this problem, this paper estimates the effects of power system rationing using a general equilibrium model. The model solution shows that the power cut distribution among industries is a critical variable for quantifying policy effects and provides insights into optimal policy design.     

CO2 emissions and economic activity: A short-to-medium run perspective

This paper looks at the short-to-medium run impact of economic activity on CO₂ emissions in the United States, shifting the existing focus away from the long-run Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our novel methodological approach combines discrete wavelet transforms with dynamic factor models. This allows us to (i) estimate economic and emissions cycles at different frequencies, and (ii) let economic activity be estimated from many different economic variables, rather than focussing on a small number as in existing studies. From our results, one might at first conclude that emissions are not linked to economic activity in the short-run. However, when looking at the cycles uncovered at timescales of length one to three years, we see that there are indeed strong linkages. Policymakers therefore cannot be exclusively long-termist when evaluating the impact of economic policy on the environment.     

The impact of coal consumption and CO2 emission on economic growth

This study examined the long-run and the causal relationship between total coal consumption, CO₂ emission, and GDP growth in China, the United States, India, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Japan, Australia, Poland, and South Korea. The panel model was employed during the period 1992–2009. The results showed that total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have a long-run relationship with the GDP growth. In addition, there was a short-run positive bidirectional causal relationship between total coal consumption and CO₂ emission. However, total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have no short-run or long-run causal relationship with GDP growth. Thus energy conservation policies on total coal consumption such as rationing energy consumption and controlling CO₂ emissions are likely to have no negative impact on the real output growth of the investigated countries.