Economy-wide and manufacturing energy productivity transition paths and club convergence for OECD and non-OECD countries

This work aims at developing a further understanding of the transition dynamics of energy productivity for a sample of 33 countries – including 23 low to middle income non-OECD countries – over the period 1971 to 2008. The focus of this work is on economy-wide and manufacturing energy productivities. We employ two steps of analysis, a preliminary step using simple methods consisting of sigma and gamma convergence and a second step employing a recent clustering algorithm that sorts countries into clubs. That clustering algorithm identified four clubs for economy-wide energy productivity and six clubs for manufacturing energy productivity. The newly industrializing countries and OECD countries were members of the better performing clubs.     

Decomposition of manufacturing energy-use in IEA countries: How do recent developments compare with historical long-term trends?

This paper examines manufacturing energy use due in 10 IEA countries between 1973 and 1998. Changes in energy use are described through using Laspeyres indexes to enable the decomposition of energy use into changes in the overall output of manufacturing (i.e. value added), the structure of output (industrial mix), and the energy intensity of each sub-sector, and to consistently compare the results across countries.The results show that structural changes have reduced manufacturing energy-use in most countries, particularly the US and Japan. In a few countries, however, the manufacturing structure became more energy-intensive and thus drove up energy use over the study period. For the group of 10 IEA nations, the net effect of structural changes accounted for more than a third of the reduction in total manufacturing energy use per unit of output between 1973 and 1998. The rest of the reductions in this period can be explained by falling energy-intensities in individual manufacturing branches. Contrasting post-1986 with earlier years shows that the rate of energy-intensity decline in manufacturing has slowed in most countries.Between 1994 and 1998 most countries experienced a strong growth in manufacturing output and a reduction in aggregated manufacturing energy use per unit output. However, the results of the decomposition analysis presented in this paper point to this reduction being mostly due to a structural shift towards less energy-intensive branches, such as electronics and electronic equipment, and that the impact from reduced energy-intensities was close to nil for the group of 10 IEA countries studied here.     

Transportation infrastructure and efficient energy services: A perspective of China's manufacturing industry

Transportation infrastructure and efficient energy services are closely related to the economy and national strategic competitiveness. Whether there are internal influence mechanisms behind their similar growth trends is a question worthy of further discussion. Given the fundamental and leading role played by infrastructure investment and energy cooperation in international exchanges, studying this global issue can provide a new perspective and reference for policy-makers' macroeconomic planning. However, there is very little literature investigating the influencing mechanism of transportation infrastructure on the efficient energy services of countries. The energy consumption of China's manufacturing industry accounted for 12.8% of the world in 2016, which makes the sector suitable as our research object. Using the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2016, this paper quantitatively calculates the effective energy services of the manufacturing industry in China and adopts the convergence analysis to find the phenomenon that the gaps of effective energy services between the three regions (east, central and west) are growing. The empirical results indicate that the development of transportation infrastructure, economic growth, technological progress, optimization of industrial structure, and the decline of energy price will significantly improve the effective energy service. Moreover, the panel threshold model is applied to demonstrate that the influence of transportation infrastructure on effective energy services in the context of income heterogeneity shows a nonlinear rising characteristic. The construction of transportation infrastructure plays an increasingly vital role in promoting effective energy services for the manufacturing industry in the central and western regions. Based on the above conclusions, we not only put forward some targeted policy recommendations to improve the policy design of the Chinese government, but also provide references for the transportation infrastructure cooperation in countries with different economic development levels along the Belt and Road Initiative.     

An integrated DEA PCA numerical taxonomy approach for energy efficiency assessment and consumption optimization in energy intensive manufacturing sectors

This paper introduces an integrated approach based on data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and numerical taxonomy (NT) for total energy efficiency assessment and optimization in energy intensive manufacturing sectors. Total energy efficiency assessment and optimization of the proposed approach considers structural indicators in addition conventional consumption and manufacturing sector output indicators. The validity of the DEA model is verified and validated by PCA and NT through Spearman correlation experiment. Moreover, the proposed approach uses the measure-specific super-efficiency DEA model for sensitivity analysis to determine the critical energy carriers. Four energy intensive manufacturing sectors are discussed in this paper: iron and steel, pulp and paper, petroleum refining and cement manufacturing sectors. To show superiority and applicability, the proposed approach has been applied to refinery sub-sectors of some OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. This study has several unique features which are: (1) a total approach which considers structural indicators in addition to conventional energy efficiency indicators; (2) a verification and validation mechanism for DEA by PCA and NT and (3) utilization of DEA for total energy efficiency assessment and consumption optimization of energy intensive manufacturing sectors.     

Electricity prices and industry switching: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

Energy is an essential input into a firm's production process. In this paper we investigate how electricity price changes across Chinese provinces affect the decision of firms to switch production from one industry to another. To address potential endogeneity between electricity prices and unobservable province level policies we construct an instrument from the interaction of regional coal production and thermal power generation capacity. Our instrumental variable results show that manufacturing firms are more likely to switch the industry of their main product to a less energy intensive industry as a result of rising electricity costs. More specifically, a 10% increase in the price of electricity leads to an increase in the probability of switching to a less energy intensive industry of around 2.3%. Our findings suggest that a well designed electricity price scheme can encourage firm behaviour than is consistent with reductions in energy use.     

Lost carbon emissions: the role of non-manufacturing “other industries” and refining in industrial energy use and carbon emissions in IEA countries

We present a review of trends in energy use and output in branches of industry not often studied in detail: petroleum refining and what we call the other industries — agriculture, mining, and construction. From a sample of IEA countries we analyze eight with the most complete data from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s. We carry out a decomposition analysis of changes in energy use and carbon emissions in the “other industries” sector. We also review briefly the impact of including refining in the evolution of manufacturing energy use, usually studied without refining. Despite many data problems, we present our results as a way of enticing others to study these important “lost” sectors more carefully. We have five basic findings. First, “other industries” tends to be a minor consumer of energy in many countries, but in some, particularly Denmark, the US, and Australia, mining or agriculture can be a major sector too large to be overlooked. Second, refining is an extremely energy intensive industry which despite a relatively low share of value added consumes as much as 20% of final energy use in manufacturing. Third, as a result of a slower decline in the carbon-intensity of these industries vis-à-vis the manufacturing industries, their share of industrial emissions has been rising. Fourth, for other industries variation in per capita output plays a relatively small role in differentiating per capita carbon emissions compared to the impact of subsectoral energy intensities. Finally, including this energy in CO₂ calculations has little impact on overall trends, but does change the magnitude of emissions in most countries significantly. Clearly, these industries provide important opportunities for searching for carbon emissions reductions.     

燃煤电厂转型路径研究综述

能源问题是实现全球温升2℃目标的重要方面,引导和推进相关技术发展有助于实现零碳社会.能源转型是目前全球的热点问题之一.本文回顾并总结在能源转型方面的相关政策及趋势预测,并对一些主要国家在能源领域特别是煤炭发电领域的政策和发展趋势进行了回顾和总结,详细讨论了各国为实现零碳目标所采取的重要政策支持和技术方法;能源转型推进过...     

Revisiting world energy intensity convergence for regional differences

World convergence in energy intensity is revisited using two new large data sets: a 111-country sample spanning 1971–2006, and a 134-country sample spanning 1990–2006. Both data sets confirm continued convergence. However, the larger data set, which adds the former Soviet Union republics and additional Balkan countries, indicates greater convergence over its more recent time-frame. Further investigation of geographical differences reveals that the OECD and Eurasian countries have shown considerable, continued convergence, while the Sub-Saharan African countries have converged amongst themselves, but at a slower rate than the OECD and Eurasian countries; by contrast, Latin American and Caribbean and Middle East and North African countries have exhibited no convergence to divergence in energy intensity.     

Adoption of carbon dioxide efficient technologies and practices: An analysis of sector-specific convergence trends among 12 nations

Carbon dioxide intensities in economic terms (GDP in PPP terms) in industrialized and developing countries have been shown to converge, and it has been argued that technology diffusion, leading to the use of similar technologies in all countries, is an important reason for this convergence. Indicators based on CO₂ per output in PPP terms, however, give in comparison to physical indicators limited understanding of the process of technology diffusion. In order to analyze the technology diffusion hypothesis in more detail, we therefore study the trend in carbon dioxide emissions in relation to the production output in four separate sectors: iron and steel; paper, board and pulp; coal fuelled power plants; and natural gas fuelled power plants, in each of 12 countries, between 1980 and 1998. The indicators converge in each sector, indicating that across countries, technologies with more similar carbon dioxide efficiencies are used today than 25 years ago. We also find that at least some developing countries with high energy prices use more efficient technologies than industrialized countries with low energy prices.     

Stochastic convergence in per capita energy use in world

This paper examines the pattern of convergence in per capita energy use in a sample of 109-country covering the period 1971–2013. In addition to the full sample of countries, existence of convergence is also examined in seven subsets of countries: OECD countries, OPEC countries, and also countries in America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, Europe, and the Middle East. In contrast to the previous studies which mainly used unit root or stationarity tests, we use the results from subsampling confidence intervals. Furthermore, instead of considering convergence to a particular country benchmark, we explore all the possible pair-wise convergences. The findings, based on 7962 pairs of countries, are more favorable to the existence of the convergence. Another finding of the paper is that the per capita energy use, despite being convergent, is highly persistent.     

Energy consumption in barley and turnip rape cultivation for bioethanol and biodiesel (RME) production

The energy consumption for six spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production chains and five spring turnip rape (Brassica rapa ssp. oleifera (DC) Metsg.) production chains were compared with each other and in relation to the energy content of the seed yield. Two cultivation intensities, standard and intensive production, were used for barley. Fertiliser production and grain drying were the most energy consuming phases of the chains. The production of nitrogen fertiliser alone accounted for 1/3-1/2 of the total energy consumption of the production chains. If barley were direct drilled and the yield stored in airtight silos, instead of drying, the energy consumption would decrease by 30-34%. Use of wood-chips instead of oil for grain drying would decrease the use of fossil fuel to the same extent. The input-output ratios for the intensive barley production chains were 0.18-0.25. They were somewhat lower than the ratios for the standard production intensity. The intensive production was more energy efficient despite higher input rates. The input-output ratios for turnip rape production were 0.32-0.34. The energy consumption for manufacturing, repair and maintenance of machines and buildings requires more research because it is a significant factor but the data available are largely old and few studies have been conducted.     

Electricity intensity convergence in IEA/OECD countries: Aggregate and sectoral analysis

Convergence in electricity intensity is analyzed among a sample of IEA countries. Sigma-convergence (the narrowing of the distribution) and to a lesser degree gamma-convergence (movement within the distribution) are detected. However, electricity intensity convergence is less dramatic than energy intensity convergence. Convergence within the end-use sectors is more diverse: in terms of the rates, timing, extent, and ultimate modal structure of the distributions. Commercial electricity intensity has more recently converged toward a bell-shape distribution. By contrast, industry electricity intensity is largely converging toward two distinct groups of countries: one with relatively high electricity intensity and another one with relatively low electricity intensity. Different still is related residential electricity consumption per capita where a small group of countries has stopped growing; another group has slowed considerably, while a third group experienced rapid growth.     

Analysis on energy intensive industries under Taiwan's climate change policy

This study addresses the planning and implementation of energy, industry, and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the Taiwan's energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change. As a newly industrialized country, Taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low-carbon industries, in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes, through energy and industrial conferences. Thus, in the past year the Taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry; furthermore, it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks. Nevertheless, statistical analysis found that in the last decade, energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, contributions to the GDP, and product value. Industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions, which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value; nevertheless, the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries, and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. This contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure, which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low-carbon economy. Hence, the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures, where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner, and encourage the development of high value-added measures for low-carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy.     

Energy content of world trade

This paper constructs a comprehensive dataset of oil and total energy embedded in world trade of manufacturing goods for 73 countries from 1978 to 2000. Applying the data to debates on the dependency on foreign energy sources makes clear that achieving complete energy independence in the foreseeable future is unlikely to be feasible and may not be desirable. Applying it to the discussion of environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) highlights an important distinction between production and consumption of energy. Richer countries use relatively less energy in their industrial production yet still consume relatively large amounts of energy indirectly. A further investigation largely excludes structural shifts of production in and out of the manufacturing sector as an explanation for the downward-sloping portion of the EKC. Country-level analyses add caveats but show tentative support for the cross-country conclusions.     

Technologies and policies for the transition to a sustainable energy system in china

The paper highlights the energy dilemma in China’s modernization process. It explores the technological and policy options for the transition to a sustainable energy system in China with Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Energy Model (LCEM). China has already taken intensive efforts to promote research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies over the past five year. The policy actions cover binding energy conservation and environmental pollution control targets, economic incentives for sustainable energy, and public R&D supports. In order to achieve the sustainable energy system transformation eventually, however, China needs to take further actions such as strengthening R&D of radically innovative sustainable energy technologies and systems such as poly-generation, enhancing the domestic manufacturing capacity of sustainable energy technologies and systems, creating stronger economic incentives for research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies, and playing a leading role in international technology collaborations.     

Revisiting CO2 emissions convergence in G18 countries

This study revisits whether CO₂ emissions converge in G18 countries over the period of 1950–2013. To work on this empirical analysis, we employ a more powerful quantile unit root test with per capita CO₂ emissions. While conventional unit root tests fail to reject convergence in CO₂ emissions in these G18 countries, quantile unit root test results demonstrate CO₂ emissions converged in 5 of these G18 countries (i.e., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, and India). Our empirical results have important policy implications for the governments of G18 countries to direct efficient and effective energy policies to reduce the CO₂ emissions.     

Analysis of energy intensity trend as a tool for long-term forecasting of energy consumption

The paper presents retrospective developments of energy intensity of the world economy differentiated by regions and their levels of economic development. The analysis has revealed the persistent decreasing trend in energy intensity across all the macro-regions and most countries, showing diversity of its course regarding both the starting point and rate of energy intensity reduction. Based on the time series, it has been shown that energy intensity of an economy is best described by an exponential trend, indicating a fairly uniform decline in energy efficiency in the economies. A power index of the exponential equation is one of the critical parameters characterizing reduction rate of energy intensity—the index of energy intensity reduction (IEIR). The authors have proposed an approach to measuring beta-convergence in time series of energy intensity, substantiating thereby convergence of economies. A comprehensive analysis of the time series and trend model served as a basis for prediction of variation in energy intensity of economies of the macro-regions for the period until 2040, which also included its quality and rationale verification. It has been shown that the trend method can be successfully applied to forecasting energy intensity developments to economically developed regions, whereas for developing countries such a forecast is less reliable. In these conditions, a comprehensive use of the trend model and the convergence model is necessary. The forecast of changes in energy intensity of the world economies grouped into macro-regions until 2040 has shown that the economically developed countries of Europe will remain to be the energy efficiency leaders until the mid-twenty-first century. The energy intensity indicators for less developed regions will gradually converge in their domain; yet, they are not expected to reach the level of the economically developed countries by 2040.     

Global warming agreements,international trade and energy/carbon embodiments: an input–output approach to the Italian case

In the Kyoto Protocol the absence of Green House Gases (GHGs) commitments of developing countries (non-Annex I) and the more flexible terms of implementation which are allowed to countries shifting toward a market economy (transition economies) naturally lead to the absence or to less constraining national measures and policies of reduction of the GHGs emissions which, in turn, may determine a comparative advantage in the production of the highest energy/carbon intensive commodities for these countries. These arguments are valid also considering the future implementation of the European Emission Allowance Trading Scheme (EATS). Thus, developing countries may become a haven for the production of not environmental-friendly commodities; in this case, the so-called Pollution Haven Hypothesis, stating that due to freer international trade the comparative advantage may change the economic structure and consequently the trade patterns of the countries linked by trade relationships, could occur. This would lead to the increase of the transfers of energy and carbon embodied in traded commodities from developing countries and transition economies toward Kyoto or EATS constrained countries.     

Multiple criteria evaluation of current energy resources for Turkish manufacturing industry

Energy is the main component of natural resources of developing, as well as developed, countries like Turkey. Because of economic and social developments, the demand for energy, in general, has increased considerably in Turkey. Since Turkey is not an oil or natural gas (NG) producing country, the energy resource usage for energy consumption should be effective. The Turkish industrial sector comprises approximately 36% of Turkey’s primary energy consumption, and the manufacturing industry is the largest industrial sector. In this study, the focus was on the manufacturing industry as the major energy consuming sector in Turkey, and it was analyzed in terms of efficient use of energy resources. The most widely used energy resources in the Turkish manufacturing industry, namely fuel-oil, coal, electricity, LPG and NG were taken into account. Evaluation and selection of current energy resources in this selected industry can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem, including human judgments, tangible and intangible criteria and priorities and trade offs between goals and criteria. The analytic network process (ANP), one of the MCDM methods, was used to evaluate the most suitable energy resources for the manufacturing industry in this study.     

Energy demand convergence in APEC: An empirical analysis

This paper empirically examines the cross-country convergence of per-capita energy and electricity usage in APEC, a significant economic bloc. To this end, the study applies conventional panel unit root tests and Sequential Panel Selection Model (SPSM) procedure based on the Panel KSS unit root with a Fourier function for robustness analysis. The results from conventional unit root test results indicate that per capita energy usage and electricity consumption are converging for all APEC countries, in line with improving living standards in APEC. The findings also provide some support for policies to promote energy integration among APEC countries. According to SPSM analysis, evidence of energy convergence is found for 15 out of 19 APEC countries and evidence of electricity convergence is found for 17 out of 19 APEC countries. Pursuit of policies to achieve energy supply stability can move divergent countries toward convergence.