坚持“四水四定”推动经济社会高质量发展——以宁夏回族自治区“四水四定”创新实践为例

坚持“四水四定”,强化水资源刚性约束,既是缓解我国水资源供需矛盾、保障水安全的必然选择,也是推动高质量发展、建设美丽中国的客观要求。文章以宁夏回族自治区为例,深入分析了宁夏回族自治区“四水四定”改革实践,总结了相关经验启示,为探索以水资源节约集约利用推动经济社会高质量发展提供了参考。     

Study on water resources dispatching and allocation in Jiangsu Section of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion ProjectEI北大核心CSCD

针对南水北调东线工程江苏段受水区的水资源调度与配置问题,以受水区总缺水量最小和泵站总能耗最小为目标,建立南水北调东线工程江苏段水资源优化调度模型。将南水北调工程调水与本地水资源进行联合配置,并以经济效益、社会效益、环境效益最大为目标,构建南水北调东线工程江苏段水资源配置模型。采用基本方案和节水方案进行了模型模拟,结果表明,在降水保证率分别为50%、75%和95% 3种情况下,受水区节水方案缺水率比基本方案分别下降了2.91%、3.61%和3.83%;受水区节水方案下各工程基本完成了受水区的供水任务,且优先利用了泵站单位能耗较小的运西线进行调水,说明优化调度配置方式在保障受水区用水的基础上,能够以更为经济节能的方式运行。     

协调公平与效率的“四水四定”研究Ⅱ：应用

宁夏干旱缺水且发展不均衡,以水定需是必然选择。本文针对宁夏水资源条件和经济社会特征,构建协调公平与效率的“四水四定”优化模型,开展全区“四水四定”方案分析。模型以用水总量红线指标为水资源刚性约束,根据区域发展战略确定刚性保障需求,通过水与“四定”协调关系分析得出经济社会发展和用水效率可行变化范围。以2019年为现状、2025年为目标年,采用模型协调优化得出“四定”规模控制目标,以及分行业和区县的用水总量控制指标。结果表明,在全区73.27亿m³用水总量和41.5亿m³耗水约束下,满足全面小康的“四定”规模为750万人、5481亿元GDP、84.7万hm²灌溉面积和791 km²建成区面积。通过对比分析方案的公平性和效率提升状况,揭示了不同行业、区域的水量流转方向,表明约束设置对结果有显著影响,可为区域经济社会发展和水资源管控决策提供参考。     

南方丰水地区落实“四水四定”的方法探讨

全方位贯彻“四水四定”原则,是新时期水资源管理和经济社会高质量发展的必然要求。从“用多少水来定”和“怎么定”两个方面对南方丰水地区落实“四水四定”的方法进行了探讨。提出面向“四水四定”的水资源三次均衡分析方法,确定规划水平年区域可用水量,作为经济社会发展的水资源刚性约束。通过情景组合分析和用水定额法对经济社会发展规模进行集合预测,得到相应的预测均值及其不确定性区间,据此进行经济社会发展规模的论证与调控,为南方丰水地区实施“四水四定”管理提供参考。     

Research progress of water eutrophication induced by climate changeEI北大核心CSCD

对大气CO₂浓度升高及气候变化诱发水体富营养化的驱动机制进行了综述。CO₂浓度升高促进浮游植物大量增殖;水温升高引起水体分层现象加剧,底层缺氧更加严重,沉积物营养盐释放加剧,促进浮游藻类的生长;降水变率、强降水发生的概率增加,会加剧土壤中氮的流失,导致水体营养盐浓度增加;太阳辐射减弱会导致水下光照减少,加速沉水植物的衰亡,促进浮游植物的生长,进一步恶化水下光照环境;风速降低会延长水体分层时间,提高水体稳定性,造成底层缺氧,加大沉积物营养盐的释放;台风等热带气旋引发的强风浪会促进水体中氮、磷等营养盐释放,有利于蓝藻细胞团增大,获得更大的浮力,带来的暴雨还会将周围营养盐携带入水体,促进藻类生长。以上这些气候变化主要特征还会相互作用,加大水体富营养化的发生风险,继而对整个水生生态系统产生一系列间接影响。指出了未来研究的重点:气候变化对水生生态系统的影响;气候变化主要特征之间系统相互作用的机理;内外源污染与气候变化对水体富营养化的贡献率;水生生态系统应对气候变化的对策等。     

落实“以水四定”的症结识别与政策工具

水是关键因子,“量水而行”是必然方向.在分析我国“以水四定”推进态势与主要症结基础上,提出在城镇化快速推进、城水矛盾突出的地区重点抓“以水定城”落实,在土地利用方式变化剧烈、水土矛盾突出的地区重点抓“以水定地”落实,在人口高度聚集、人水矛盾突出的地区重点抓“以水定人”落实,在产业高度聚集、水供需矛盾突出的地区重点抓“以...     

Analysis of water resources spatial equilibrium in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay AreaEI北大核心CSCD

依据2009—2019年粤港澳大湾区社会经济指标和水资源数据,通过泰尔指数、基尼系数对人口、GDP与水资源空间分布的均衡性进行研究,并构建了水资源负载指数模型,分析了区域水资源开发程度。结果表明：2019年粤港澳大湾区人口与水资源量、GDP与水资源量的匹配程度较低,基尼系数分别为0.520和0.651,属于高度不平均等级,且基尼系数呈上升趋势;通过泰尔指数得到了相同的结论,区域间差异对总体差异贡献率较大,而区域内的人口、GDP与水资源匹配差距不突出;2019年粤港澳大湾区水资源负载指数为4.0,等级为Ⅲ级,开发利用程度为中等水平,各城市水资源负载差距悬殊,且呈逐年增加趋势,表现为经济总量大、人口密集、水资源条件相对不足的地区,开发利用程度高、潜力小;粤港澳大湾区水资源空间分布与生产力布局不协调,且水资源空间不均衡性有进一步加剧的趋势。     

Study on coupling coordination development and dynamic response of water system of sponge citieEI北大核心CSCD

Based on the established evaluation indicator system of urban water system, evaluation indicator data collected from six typical pilot sponge cities were analyzed using a coupling coordination model to empirically examine the development status of coupling coordination of the water system of different cities. The key indicators were identified through grey correlation analysis, and a vector auto regression model was established to investigate the mechanism, through which these key indicators impact the development of coupling coordination of the water system. The findings indicate that the water system of the six cities has progressed from serious or moderate incoordination to coordination after the construction of sponge cities, and “sponging” reconstruction had better short-term effectiveness in southern pilot cities, including Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, compared to northern pilot cities, including Jinan and Beijing. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree between the water ecology and water security subsystems is found to be the highest, while river regulation rate and drinking water compliance rate exert fluctuating effects, alternatively impeding or promoting the interrelation between the two sub-systems. By contrast, the coupling coordination degree between the water resources and water culture subsystems is the weakest, while the number of official platform publicity exerts a significant and sustained positive effect on the relationship between the two sub-systems. Additionally, there is a need for further enhancement of the coupling coordination degree between the water resources and water environment subsystems, and the increases of water consumption per 10 000 yuan of GDP and sewage treatment rate have significant promoting but short-lived effects on the coordination between the two sub-systems. © 2023, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.     

基于改进粒子群优化算法的区域水量水质联合配置模型EI北大核心CSCD

综合考虑区域水资源水量和水质两个因素,以供水净效益最大、区域总缺水量最小、COD排放量最小为目标建立区域水量水质联合配置多目标模型;为提高算法的计算精度和全局寻优能力,对粒子群优化算法进行了改进并用于模型求解。将模型用于江苏省靖江市水资源配置研究,结果表明:基本方案和节水方案下的用水总量和COD排放量均在其限值范围内,节水方案下供水净效益比基本方案低3.0亿元,缺水量和COD排放量分别比基本方案低1290万m^(3)、1062.7 t,说明得出的配置方案合理可行。在节水方案下进行区域水资源配置,在缓解区域缺水状况的同时,能够有效减少COD排放量,可为解决区域水质型缺水问题提供决策参考。     

Evaluation of provincial water resources utilization performance in China and its spatial differentiation and driving factor analysisEI北大核心CSCD

采用超效率SBM模型评价了2005—2020年中国省域水资源利用绩效,运用Dagum基尼系数分解法、空间自相关和时空跃迁分析方法解析了其空间分异特征,并利用地理探测器对空间分异的驱动机理进行了分析。结果表明:省域水资源利用绩效水平总体不高;空间差异程度整体呈波动扩大趋势,主要来源为超变密度,其次为地区间空间差异和地区内空间差异;空间分异格局在地理上呈现“东高西低”的空间关联特征,具有显著空间溢出效应,局域空间分布结构较为稳定;人口规模、经济水平和城镇化水平对水资源利用绩效的空间分异具有显著驱动作用,且在不同区域表现不同,全国层面和东部地区属于经济驱动型,中部和西部地区分别为城镇化驱动型和人口驱动型;产业发展水平对水资源利用绩效的空间分异驱动作用具有区域异质性,全国层面和东部地区属于工业驱动型,中部和西部地区分别为建筑业驱动型和农业驱动型。建议各区域根据主导驱动因素制定相关水资源利用绩效协同提升策略。     

Analysis of decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and water resources utilization in the Qinhe River Basin based on Tapio and LMDI modelsEI北大核心CSCD

在界定沁河流域研究范围和对沁河流域碳排放趋势特征分析的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩模型分析了碳排放与水资源利用的脱钩关系,并采用LMDI模型分析影响碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:沁河流域整体碳排放呈现波动增长态势,但碳排放增长率波动下降;沁河流域碳排放与水资源利用多数时间处于强负脱钩和扩张负脱钩状态,但逐渐出现强脱钩与弱脱钩状态,水碳关系逐渐向好;水资源利用效应和碳排放强度效应是驱动沁河流域碳排放增长的主要因素,用水效益效应是驱动碳排放减少的主要因素,碳排放强度效应与供水结构效应驱动效果逐渐变得更为显著。     

Matching of agricultural water and soil resources in Jianghuai Hilly Area based on set pair analysisEI北大核心CSCD

将水土资源自然本底量与农业用水用地量相结合,采用集对分析重建农业水土资源匹配指标,并构建七元半偏减法集对势,对江淮丘陵区2005—2019年农业水土资源匹配进行分析。结果表明:2005—2019年江淮丘陵区广义农业水土资源配比度基本呈现下降态势,但高于水土资源自然配比度;单位耕地用水量有减少趋势,但超出区域本底自然供水量,处于相对缺水状态;狭义农业水土资源配比度与水土资源自然配比度呈现交叉波动,并存在一定程度反相关,降水量的增加会相对减少农业灌溉用水量;2005—2010年和2011—2019年两时段江淮丘陵区广义农业水土资源均处于高度不匹配状态,合肥、滁州不匹配程度最高,安庆最低;两时段农业水土资源匹配集对势均为反势,匹配状态较差,但后期均有所提升,有向好发展趋势,安庆和六安变化程度最为明显;江淮丘陵区降水量年际变化较大,水资源总量变幅明显高于农业用水用地量波动,导致农业用水用地量与水资源总量变化不同步,这是水土资源匹配波动的主要原因。     

Spatio-temporal variation of water quality in Hongze Lake from 2010 to 2020EI北大核心CSCD

The spatio-temporal variation of the water quality in Hongze Lake were studied with the least favorable value method and the anomaly coefficient method based on the monthly monitoring data from 2010 to 2020. The results show that TN, CODMn, and TP are the most important factors that affect the water environment of Hongze Lake. With regard to the temporal distribution, the monthly TN concentration in Hongze Lake decreased continuously, the monthly CODMn concentration gradually stabilized, and the monthly TP concentration increased first and then decreased. The annual TN concentration decreased significantly, while the annual TP concentration decreased slightly from 2010 to 2020. The least favorable value of TN showed a downward trend, with the dry season having a significantly greater effect on the increase of TN than the flood season. The least favorable value of TP showed a slight upward trend, which mainly occurred in August, September, and October, with a probability up to 81.8%. With regard to the spatial distribution, the TN and CODMn anomaly coefficients in the lake area in Huai’ an were mostly positive, while the coefficients in the lake area in Suqian were mostly negative. The TP anomaly coefficient was mostly negative in the lake area in Huai’an, while mostly positive in the lake area in Suqian. Currently, control of TN and reduction of the total emissions of CODMn are the two prominent issues needed to be addressed in the Huai’an area, and TP control is an urgent issue to be strengthened in the Suqian area. © 2022, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.     

Supply efficiency of water ecological products and its influencing factors in Zhoushan City based on RSBM-DEA modelEI北大核心CSCD

Based on the construction of the evaluation index system for the supply efficiency of water ecological products in Zhoushan City, the evolutionary characteristics of the supply efficiency of water ecological products in Zhoushan City from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed by using the RSBM-DEA model based on time series data, and the influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that the value of water ecological services in Zhoushan City is mainly reflected in surface water storage and cultural services, showing a fluctuating upward trend. The supporting effect of water ecosystem on the sustainable development of Zhoushan's economy and society has been continuously enhanced. The supply efficiency of aquatic ecological products in Zhoushan City has maintained a fluctuating development trend at a high level, of which pure technical efficiency is the key factor. In 2003 and 2013, it experienced two “trough periods”, mainly caused by the impact of pure technical efficiency. Different factors have different influence directions and degrees on the supply efficiency of water ecological products in Zhoushan City. Among them, the level of science and technology, the construction of water conservancy facilities, industrial structure and the level of economic development have a very significant positive impact, while the annual average temperature and ground hardening rate have a negative impact on the ground hardening rate, and the ground hardening rate has a low impact © 2022, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.     

“四水四定”的概念内涵、逻辑框架与实践体系研究

为了更好地贯彻落实“以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产”要求、推进水资源的节约集约利用,基于研究与工作实践,分析了“四水四定”的基本概念,阐释了“四水四定”的深刻内涵,凝练了“四水四定”的逻辑框架,架构了“四水四定”的实践体系,提出了“四水四定”的判断原则,以期为有关方面更好地开展“四水四定”管理实践提供技术参考。