Spatial shift-share analysis: Some new developments

The traditional shift-share analysis and its existing spatial versions fail to detect the simple effects related to the underlying spillovers derived from the neighbourhood and regional contexts. This paper presents a formulation of the spatial shift-share that incorporates novel effects and classifies the regions in a multi-contextual framework (national, neighbourhood and regional). The use of different benchmarks is valuable since the performance of some regional sectors can be diagnosed with a national focus, while for others, it may be necessary to resort to neighbourhood and regional characteristics. Thus, the technique facilitates the formulation of strategies to improve the regional economic planning.     

Shift-share analysis and international trade

In today’s global economy, increased international market integration and a steep rise in the number of multinational enterprises have made the notion of there being no international trade bizarre indeed. This paper revises the shift-share analysis by adopting the net export ratio (NX) to separate the domestic and foreign components of regional employment change and to show the revealed comparative advantage of international trade. The result is found that the effects of international trade on employment change are ubiquitous, and its importance therefore cannot be overlooked. As for the significantly positive values of NX and its relative growth, for example, the employment change mainly arises from the international market and not from domestic demand. This modification makes the shift-share analysis more reasonable and sensible, especially in relation to a small open economy.     

Combining intersectoral flows and shift-share techniques: A hybrid regional forecasting model

Summary and conclusions Intersectoral flows analysis is a static technique. There is no dynamic or growth element. Shift-share analysis on the other hand is a growth oriented analytical tool with no capability for modelling the internal structure of a regional economy. It therefore seems useful to combine the shift-share and intersectoral flows approaches. The shift parameters provide a growth component for the final demand sectors of the intersectoral flows matrix.Externalities are incorporated into the model through the shift parameters which drive the final demand categories of the regional economy. This is deemed to be a fruitful approach at present because it can incorporate a variety of linear and non-linear externalities and is amenable to simulation. It also overcomes in theory some of the principal criticisms of shift-share. The economy, flexibility and potential rigour of this approach appears to us to provide the most likely operational approach to externalities in the immediate future.     

Business cycle,industrial composition,or regional advantage? A decomposition analysis of new firm formation in the United States

This paper presents a shift-share decomposition analysis of new firm formation at the three-digit NAICS level in the United States from 1998 to 2003, attributing overall new firm creation, in construction, manufacturing, and service sectors respectively, to three distinct sources, i.e., business cycle, industrial composition, and regional advantage. This research is critical not only because, from a methodological perspective, this is one of the first applications of the shift-share analysis in firm formation and entrepreneurship studies. This research is also significant because it empirically identifies the portion of new start-ups that results exclusively from regional factors, enables researchers and policy makers to uncover the nuanced relations between firm births and regional characteristics, job creation, and economic development, and therefore facilitates effective public policies to promote new businesses and achieve economic success.     

Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model

Shift-share analysis is an accounting procedure that identifies three separate effects for regional employment change. But the analysis is ordinarily restricted to only one category: usually, industry employment. This paper presents a new shift-share model that simultaneously addresses both occupation employment and industry employment. Community-level occupation-in-industry employment effects (both mix and competitive) occurring in the 1980s are then used to estimate population change in the 1990s. Separate estimates are given for two data sets comprised of different-sized non-metropolitan U.S. communities – small towns and micropolitan centers. This expanded two-category model is shown to generate estimates that are clearly superior to those of the traditional one-category model.The first version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Association of Pacific Coast Geographers in September, 2001. The senior author has benefited from various conversations with Kingsley Haynes regarding shift-share analysis. The authors also thank three referees and the editor for their comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments

This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the tourist appeal of individual regions rather than a result of more or less favorable structures of visitors. Second, none of several mega-events during the period observed seem to have left prolonged positive effects on the tourist performance of the host regions. And third, performance appears uncorrelated with tourism intensity of a region. Thus, from a policy and destination management perspective, tourism authorities and local suppliers should mainly focus on upgrading the permanent destination attractiveness rather than investing too much effort into landing mega-events or targeting the visitor mix toward promising source markets.     

长沙市工业园主导产业选择研究

基于长沙市工业园产业发展现状,运用偏离一份额分析法定量分析13个工业园主导产业,再结合利用优势资源、顺应市场演化趋势、促进区域合理分工等内容对定量结果进行定性分析,从宏观层面对未来长沙工业园主导产业进行选择研究。     

Sources of regional inefficiency An integrated shift-share, data envelopment analysis and input-output approach

This paper develops and tests an integrated set of models to investigate sources of (in)efficiencies in regional industry sectors. First, following the Haynes and Dinc (1997) extension of the shift-share model, leading regional industrial sectors are identified for analysis based on their scale, productivity and sources of productivity change. Second, by employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the efficiency of these lead sectors is investigated and the future competitiveness of these sectors is evaluated. Finally, by incorporating input-output analysis into the model the impact of intersectoral transactions on sectoral efficiency is assessed. Received: November 1997/Accepted: May 1998     

Evaluating the local socio-economic impact of redevelopments using shift-share analysis: a case study of destination redevelopments in Las Vegas (1990–2010)

Monitoring neighbourhood change associated with a redevelopment is important for policy-makers, business leaders and residents. It helps evaluate public policy and changes in the needs of residents and businesses. However, using raw data (e.g. census data) to track such changes can be problematic. It does not allow one to distinguish between trends attributable to macro- and micro-scale processes. This paper demonstrates how a novel neighbourhood-level, GIS-based spatial approach using shift-share analysis can help resolve this issue. To illustrate its utility, this technique is used to examine the local socio-economic impact of destination redevelopments in Las Vegas between 1990 and 2010.     

A dissection of the growth of regional disparities in Chinese labor productivity between 1997 and 2002

This paper quantifies the effects of some proximate causes for the regional productivity disparities of China in 1997 and their growth in the five years thereafter. A novel shift-share approach based on input–output data is used to divide the regional differences, so that explicit attention is paid to the regional consequences of China’s specific role in global production networks (with a focus on sectoral value added coefficients). In the process, a new method is proposed to deflate the data in constant prices. The results show that regions with high labor productivity levels in 1997 generally experienced increases of the employment shares in sectors with high productivity levels.     

Scalable shift-share analysis: Novel framework and application to France

The shift-share analysis (SSA) of regional employment growth disparities aims at disentangling the effects of regional differences in industry mix and industrial competitiveness. Yet, the spatial concentration of industry is a blindspot of this approach. We generalize the SSA to encompass this salient feature of the economic geography. Besides, industry emergence and catastrophic growth events—booming or collapsing industries—are integrated in our framework. This novel method is applied to study regional disparities in manufacturing employment growth in France in a dynamic way over a 22-year period at a fine geographical level.     

The impact of convergence in the industrial mix on regional comparative growth: Empirical evidence from the French case

The aim of this article is to explain heterogeneities in French regional labor productivities since the mid-seventies at both aggregate and sectoral level. This paper extends the works of Baumol and of Barro and Salai-Martin, firstly by pointing out sources of growth linked to the new growth theories (research effort, size effects) and secondly by emphasizing the impact of cross-sectoral labor reallocations through a shift-share analysis. Our results show the importance of regional asymmetries and the key role played by the dynamic of sectoral composition in the convergence of labor productivities within France.Received: November 2000/Accepted: February 2004     

Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques

We extend in this analysis an approach introduced by Patterson and suggested by M?ller and Tassinopoulos. Our approach uses a generalization of an econometric analogue of the common shift-share method, suggested here as a new “workhorse” for regional analyses. The results obtained with this shift-share-regression, and with very differentiated data from the employment statistics of eastern Germany, show that processes of deconcentration play a role in explaining regional disparities, since inverse localization and positive urbanization effects are visible. The relevant processes can be understood by implementing approaches of “new economic geography”, structural change and endogenous growth theory.     

Resilience and economic structure: The case of the Chilean regions during the Asian crises and the Great Recession of 2008

This paper analyses the effects of the sectoral structure on the economic resilience of Chilean regions during the shocks of the 1998 Asian and 2008 financial crises by employing cycle dissection, phase-differentiated spatially extended shift-share analysis, and regional analysis indices. Regions with more diversified structures exhibited better performance during the crises. Certain service sectors moderated the impacts of the crises in the resistance phases, and in turn, were drivers during the recovery phases. Remarkably, agriculture slowed the recovery of the southern regions. Some of these results were induced by the high demographic and economic concentration in the metropolitan region of Santiago.     

The role of migration in labour-market adjustment: the British experience in the 1980s

"In this paper the role of migration in bringing labour supply and demand into balance (or in mitigating imbalance) in Britain in the 1980s is investigated.... The major trends in migration and unemployment at national and regional scales are outlined, and the key characteristics of job-related migrants are identified. In the main part of the paper the author is concerned with the operationalisation of two contrasting methodological approaches designed to promote a greater understanding of the influences acting on changing migration patterns and the role of migration, alongside other factors in labour-market changes. First, the results from a shift-share approach are discussed; and second, the output from an application of the labour market accounts technique is described."     

Determinants of the competitive share in Wisconsin counties, 1962–1972: The role of government policy

The research premise is that shift-share analysis can provide some useful policy information. The question addressed is: do governmental policies influence the competitive share of a county. Ordinary least squares regression is used to test the relationship between selected state and local government policy choices and the county's competitive share for the time periods of 1962–72, 1962–67, and 1967–72. The policy variables proved to have limited predictive power. The number of cities over 10,000 population, distance to Milwaukee/Minneapolis, percent employed in trade and service activities, and median family income were the strongest influences on county competitive share. The conclusion is that the proxies for state and local economic policy choices are either inadequate or county competitive share is not influenced by governmental action.     

The impact of immigration on housing prices in Australia

In recent years, Australia has experienced high rates of immigration. We investigate the effect that this has had on housing prices at the postcode level. The endogeneity of immigrant inflows is accounted for using the Bartik shift-share approach. Using data from the censuses in 2006, 2011, and 2016, we find that an immigrant inflow of 1% of a postcode's population raises housing prices by around 0.9% per year. As a result, Australian housing prices would have been around 1.1% lower per annum had there been no immigration. The size of this effect is broadly consistent with that found for other countries. The effects of immigration on housing prices were larger in the more recent part of the period examined and strongest in the states of New South Wales and Victoria, and the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide. Chinese and Indian immigrant groups are shown to have a strong positive influence on prices.     

Regional Concentration and Dynamics of Fast-growing Industries in Baden-Württemberg and Israel

Fast-growing industries are regarded as providing an above-average contribution to production, employment and innovation. Due to necessary knowledge spillovers and a high product innovation rate, these industries are expected to have a locational bias towards central, metropolitan regions guaranteeing a risk- and uncertainty-minimizing industrial atmosphere. Using statistical data on the regional distribution and composition of fast-growing industrial branches in Baden-Württemberg and Israel, it is the objective of this paper to analyse the spatial distribution process of fast-growing industries and to answer the question if also non-metropolitan regions provide favourable location conditions which could be made the starting point for innovation-oriented regional development strategies. Based on different methods of regional analysis, like concentration indices and shift-share analysis, our results indicate that although the highest share of fast-growing industrial branches can still be found in central regions, spatial dispersion towards intermediate and peripheral regions occurred between the late 1980s and early 1990s in Israel as well as in Baden-Württemberg. This decentralization process makes it clear that these industries can be an important target group for disparity-reducing regional policy.     

区域高校专任教师学历结构的变化

运用变差系数和偏移-分享法,对2004-2016年各区域高校专任教师学历结构变化的分析发现,博士学历缓慢"均衡化",硕士学历"普及化",本科和专科学历"弱化";东部地区与中西部地区在高校专任教师学历发展上仍存在差距。面对这一差距,针对不同地区的实际情况,实施不同的发展战略,促进各个地区的均衡发展。对个别地区实施特殊的保护性策略,综合考虑学校的类型、人才培养目标等提升教师质量。