The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty.

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from limited task experience or from short-term memory limitations. As predicted by the naive sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), overconfidence with probability judgment is rapidly reduced by additional task experience, whereas overconfidence with intuitive confidence intervals is minimally affected even by extensive task experience. In contrast to the minor bias with probability judgment, the extreme overconfidence bias with intuitive confidence intervals is correlated with short-term memory capacity. The proposed interpretation is that increased task experience is not sufficient to cure the overconfidence with confidence intervals because it stems from short-term memory limitations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On the evaluation of probability judgments: Calibration, resolution, and monotonicity.

Judgments of probability are commonly evaluated by 2 criteria: (1) calibration, namely, the correspondence between stated confidence and rate of occurrence, and (2) resolution, namely, the ability to distinguish between events that do and do not occur. Two representations of probability judgments are contrasted: the designated form that presupposes a particular coding of outcomes (e.g., rain vs no rain) and the inclusive form that incorporates all events and their complements. It is shown that the indices of calibration and resolution derived from these representations measure different characteristics of judgment. Calibration is distinguished from 2 types of overconfidence: specific and generic. An ordinal measure of performance is proposed and compared to the standard measures in forecasts of recession and in both numerical and verbal assessments of general knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Should observed overconfidence be dismissed as a statistical artifact? Critique of Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994).

I. Erev, T. S. Wallsten, and D. V. Budescu (see record 1994-36026-001) showed that the same probability judgment data can reveal both apparent overconfidence and underconfidence, depending on how the data are analyzed. To explain this seeming paradox, I. Erev et al. proposed a general model of judgment in which overt responses are related to underlying "true judgments" that are perturbed by error. A central conclusion of their work is that observed over- and underconfidence can be split into two components: (a) "true" over- and underconfidence and (b) "artifactual" over- and underconfidence due to error in judgment. It is argued in the present article that decomposing over- and underconfidence into true and artifactual components is inappropriate. The mistake stems from giving primacy to ambiguously defined model constructions (true judgments) over observed data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Aging and Conditional Probability Judgments: A Global Matching Approach.

Age differences in bias in conditional probability judgments were investigated based on predictions derived from the Minerva-Decision Making model (M. R. P. Dougherty, C. F. Gettys, & E. E. Ogden, 1999), a global matching model of likelihood judgment. In this study, 248 younger and older adults completed frequency judgment and conditional probability judgment tasks. Age differences in the frequency judgment task are interpreted as an age-related deficit in memory encoding. Older adults' stronger biases in the probability judgment task point to age differences in criterion setting. Age-related biases were eliminated when age groups were equated on memory encoding by means of study time manipulation. The authors conclude that older adults' stronger judgment biases are a function of memory impairment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation.

Format dependence implies that assessment of the same subjective probability distribution produces different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. In 2 experiments, the authors demonstrate that the overconfidence bias that occurs when participants produce intervals for an uncertain quantity is almost abolished when they evaluate the probability that the same intervals include the quantity. The authors successfully apply a method for adaptive adjustment of probability intervals as a debiasing tool and discuss a tentative explanation in terms of a naive sampling model. According to this view, people report their experiences accurately, but they are naive in that they treat both sample proportion and sample dispersion as unbiased estimators, yielding small bias in probability evaluation but strong bias in interval production. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Serum leptin levels in normal children: relationship to age, gender, body mass index, pituitary-gonadal hormones, and pubertal stage

It is commonly accepted that at least in girls puberty starts when a minimum level of body mass or a certain amount of body fat are present. However the precise signal by which adipose stores inform the hypothalamus of the degree of energetic reserves is unknown. Leptin is a hormone produced by the adipocytes to regulate food intake and energy expenditure at the hypothalamic level. To understand whether leptin is the adipose tissue signal that allows puberty, 789 normal children of both sexes, age 5-15 yr, were transversally studied. Leptin levels, as well as gonadal and gonadotropins, levels, were analyzed in addition to the determination of auxological parameters. In an age-related analysis, leptin levels in girls rose from 5-15 yr (from 4.3 +/- 0.4 to 8.5 +/- 0.9 micrograms/L) in parallel with body weight. Boys always had lower leptin levels than girls (3.3 +/- 0.3 micrograms/L at 5 yr), but they rose in parallel with weight until 10 yr (5.3 +/- 0.7 micrograms/L), when a striking decrease was observed until 15 yr (3.0 +/- 0.3 micrograms/L). In girls, leptin was the first hormone to rise followed by FSH and later by LH and estradiol. A similar pattern occurred in boys, despite the fact that leptin dropped after 10 yr when testosterone rises. Divided into three pubertal stages, i.e. P1 = prepuberty, P2 = early puberty, and P3 = overt puberty, in girls the four hormones rose progressively from P1 to P3, but from P2 to P3 the present increment was greater for LH and estradiol. In boys, leptin decreased from P1 to P3, whereas FSH, LH, and testosterone rose. The age-related changes were not caused by adiposity variations, because data did not change when subtracting values of children over 97% of standard deviation score of body mass index. In conclusion: 1) leptin appears to increase in both boys and girls before the appearance of other reproductive hormones related to puberty; 2) leptin levels in boys are always lower than in girls, although they increase with age until the age 10 yr; 3) leptin in boys declines about the time testosterone increases. Leptin may well be a permissive factor for the initiation of pubertal events.     

Calorie restriction, stress and the ubiquitin-dependent pathway in mouse livers

Calorie restriction (R), the only known method to delay the aging process and extend mean and maximal lifespan, has been shown to delay the age-related decline in protein degradation. There are several proteolytic pathways. The ubiquitin- and ATP-dependent proteolytic pathway (UPP) is frequently associated with degradation of damaged abnormal and/or regulatory proteins. We examined the effect of aging and R on supernatants of livers taken from young (4.5 months) and old (23 months) Emory mice. Aging was associated with increased levels of endogenous ubiquitin conjugates, enhanced ability to form high molecular weight conjugates and ubiquitin activating (E1) and ubiquitin conjugating (E2) activity in the control (C) liver supernatants. The age-related increase in levels of endogenous ubiquitin conjugates in liver appears to be primarily due to increased E1 and E2 activities. R prevented the age-related increase in E1 and E2 activity, and thus prevented the age-related increase in levels of ubiquitin conjugates. In spite of the age-related increase in ubiquitin conjugates, no age-related changes in ubiquitin-dependent proteolytic pathway were observed in the C animals. R was associated with an enhanced ability (130%) to degrade beta-lactoglobulin by the ubiquitin-dependent proteolytic pathway in livers from 4.5-month-old animals relative to age-matched C livers. However, rates of the ubiquitin-dependent degradation of beta-lactoglobulin in the 23-month-old C and R animals were indistinguishable. There were no age- or diet-related differences in the ability to degrade another substrate, oxidized ribonuclease (RNase).     

Strategies for revising judgment: How (and how well) people use others’ opinions.

A basic issue in social influence is how best to change one’s judgment in response to learning the opinions of others. This article examines the strategies that people use to revise their quantitative estimates on the basis of the estimates of another person. The authors note that people tend to use 2 basic strategies when revising estimates: choosing between the 2 estimates and averaging them. The authors developed the probability, accuracy, redundancy (PAR) model to examine the relative effectiveness of these two strategies across judgment environments. A surprising result was that averaging was the more effective strategy across a wide range of commonly encountered environments. The authors observed that despite this finding, people tend to favor the choosing strategy. Most participants in these studies would have achieved greater accuracy had they always averaged. The identification of intuitive strategies, along with a formal analysis of when they are accurate, provides a basis for examining how effectively people use the judgments of others. Although a portfolio of strategies that includes averaging and choosing can be highly effective, the authors argue that people are not generally well adapted to the environment in terms of strategy selection. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Overconfidence: a concept analysis

Overconfidence has an effect on clinical practice and patient outcomes. The author utilizes Walker and Avant's procedure for conceptual analysis to give a systematic definition to overconfidence as it relates to decision-making in nursing. The characteristics that demonstrate the presence of overconfidence are: (a) failure to consider alternative perspectives, (b) failure to distinguish inferences from assertions, (c) favoring positive over negative information, (d) unwarranted certainty in the prediction of accuracy, and (e) control. An increased awareness of the existence of overconfidence can increase the reliability of nursing judgment.     

Variable expression of Mn SOD in three different human melanoma cell lines

The mechanism of age-related cortical bone loss was investigated in 229 Japanese women, 41-94 years of age, by metacarpal bone mass measurement. While no significant correlation was found between bone width and age, a significant increase in bone marrow width, and significant decreases in cortical bone density and total bone mass were observed in association with aging (P < 0.0001). There was a significant negative correlation between total bone mass and bone marrow width (r = -0.239; P < 0.0005), and significant positive correlations between both total bone mass and cortical bone density (r = 0.539; P < 0.0001) and cortical bone width (r = 0.839; P < 0.0001). The findings suggested that age-related cortical bone loss in middle-aged and elderly women resulted from two different factors; a decrease in cortical bone density caused by progression of intracortical porosity, and a decrease in cortical bone width as a result of bone loss on the endosteal surface. The latter had a greater influence on an age-related cortical bone loss than the former.     

Overconfidence effects in category learning: A comparison of connectionist and exemplar memory models.

Exemplar and connectionist models were compared on their ability to predict overconfidence effects in category learning data. In the standard task, participants learned to classify hypothetical patients with particular symptom patterns into disease categories and reported confidence judgments in the form of probabilities. The connectionist model asserts that classifications and confidence are based on the strength of learned associations between symptoms and diseases. The exemplar retrieval model (ERM) proposes that people learn by storing examples and that their judgments are often based on the first example they happen to retrieve. Experiments 1 and 2 established that overconfidence increases when the classification step of the process is bypassed. Experiments 2 and 3 showed that a direct instruction to retrieve many exemplars reduces overconfidence. Only the ERM predicted the major qualitative phenomena exhibited in these experiments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Age differences in the effects of conscious and unconscious thought in decision making.

The roles of unconscious and conscious thought in decision making were investigated to examine both (a) boundary conditions associated with the efficacy of each type of thought and (b) age differences in intuitive versus deliberative thought. Participants were presented with 2 decision tasks, one requiring active deliberation and the other intuitive processing. Young and older adults then engaged in conscious or unconscious thought processing before making a decision. A manipulation check revealed that young adults were more accurate in their representations of the decision material than older adults, which accounted for much of the age-related variation in performance when the full sample was considered. When only accurate participants were considered, decision making was best when there was congruence between the nature of the information and the thought condition. Thus, unconscious thought was more appropriate when participants relied on intuitive rather than deliberative processing to make their decision, whereas the converse was true with conscious thought. Although older adults displayed somewhat less efficient deliberative processing, their ability to process information at the intuitive level was relatively preserved. Additionally, both young and older adults displayed choice-supportive memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Age-related patterns in body composition for men aged 20-79 yr

Fat-free body mass has been reported to decline by 30% between the ages of 30 and 70 yr, whereas body weight increases until age 50 yr. This study examined the age-related patterns in body composition, specifically its two components, fat-free body mass and fat mass, in 157 men aged 20-79 yr. Total body composition was assessed by hydrodensitometry and subcutaneous fat was measured with skinfolds. Approximately 15 men were tested in each of the 12 5-yr age groups (20-24, 25-29, 30-34, ... 75-79 yr). Body density, as determined by underwater weighing, was lower successively from the youngest to oldest age groups; men below age 40 yr had significantly higher (P < 0.01) body densities than the older men. Although there was a gradual decline in fat-free body mass with increasing age, there was not a significant age group effect until age 70 yr. Fat mass gradually increased with increasing age; men above age 40 yr had significantly higher (P < 0.01) total body fat when compared to the younger men. Subcutaneous body fat was similar at the distal limb locations for each age group; however, the proximal trunk locations, especially the abdomen, demonstrated significantly (P < 0.01) higher skinfold thicknesses with increasing age. In conclusion, fat-free body mass was maintained to a later age than previously reported; thus, the age-related decline in body density could be attributed to an age-related increase in body fat.     

Intuitive confidence: Choosing between intuitive and nonintuitive alternatives.

People often choose intuitive rather than equally valid nonintuitive alternatives. The authors suggest that these intuitive biases arise because intuitions often spring to mind with subjective ease, and the subjective ease leads people to hold their intuitions with high confidence. An investigation of predictions against point spreads found that people predicted intuitive options (favorites) more often than equally valid (or even more valid) nonintuitive alternatives (underdogs). Critically, though, this effect was largely determined by people's confidence in their intuitions (intuitive confidence). Across naturalistic, expert, and laboratory samples (Studies 1-3), against personally determined point spreads (Studies 4-11), and even when intuitive confidence was manipulated by altering irrelevant aspects of the decision context (e.g., font; Studies 12 and 13), the authors found that decreasing intuitive confidence reduced or eliminated intuitive biases. These findings indicate that intuitive biases are not inevitable but rather predictably determined by contextual variables that affect intuitive confidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The confidence-accuracy relationship in eyewitness identification: Effects of lineup instructions, foil similarity, and target-absent base rates.

Discriminating accurate from mistaken eyewitness identifications is a major issue facing criminal justice systems. This study examined whether eyewitness confidence assists such decisions under a variety of conditions using a confidence-accuracy (CA) calibration approach. Participants (N = 1,200) viewed a simulated crime and attempted 2 separate identifications from 8-person target-present or target-absent lineups. Confidence and accuracy were calibrated for choosers (but not nonchoosers) for both targets under all conditions. Lower overconfidence was associated with higher diagnosticity, lower target-absent base rates, and shorter identification latencies. Although researchers agree that courtroom expressions of confidence are uninformative, our findings indicate that confidence assessments obtained immediately after a positive identification can provide a useful guide for investigators about the likely accuracy of an identification. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Increasing Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus seroprevalence with age in a highly Kaposi's sarcoma endemic region, Zambia in 1985

BACKGROUND: Kaposi's sarcoma (KS)-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is a newly discovered virus found in all forms of KS. In the United States, KSHV infection appears to be most common amongst individuals at high-risk for KS. Preliminary data from Africa suggest that KSHV infection may be much more common in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To examine the KSHV seroprevalence and age-specific patterns of infection in an African country with high rates of KS. DESIGN: Cross-sectional seroprevalence study. METHODS: Sera were taken for a hospital-based HIV seroprevalence study conducted in August 1985 in Lusaka, Zambia at a time when HIV was just becoming epidemic in this area. A total of 251 sera were randomly sampled and examined for antibodies against latent and lytic antigens to KSHV. KSHV seroprevalence was compared with demographic and clinical variables using chi2 test for linear trend and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Overall, 58% of persons aged 14-84 years were KSHV-seropositive. KSHV seroprevalence increased linearly with age (P = 0.04) and was inversely related to years of education (P = 0.015). In contrast, HIV infection peaked in those aged 20-29 years and was positively related to years of education (P = 0.01 5). No association between KSHV and gender, marital status, or HIV serostatus was seen. CONCLUSIONS: KSHV infection was significantly more common in this region of Zambia in 1985 than it currently is in the United States. Our data are consistent with KSHV being well-established in this region prior to 1985 and that continued adult transmission of the virus was occurring. The high seroprevalence in the adolescent age-group and the relatively linear increase in prevalence with age suggest that non-sexual modes of transmission may be important for KSHV transmission in Africa.     

The effects of age, illustrations, and task variables on the performance of procedural assembly tasks.

Older adults may be disadvantaged in the performance of procedural assembly tasks because of age-related declines in working memory operations. It was hypothesized that adding illustrations to instructional text may lessen age-related performance differences by minimizing processing demands on working memory in the elderly. In the present study, younger and older adults constructed a series of 3-dimensional objects from 3 types of instructions (text only, illustration only, or text and illustrations). Results indicated that instructions consisting of text and illustrations reduced errors in construction for both age groups compared with the other formats. Younger adults, however, outperformed older adults under all instructional format conditions. Measures of spatial and verbal working memory and text comprehension ability accounted for substantial age-related variance across the different format conditions but did not fully account for the age differences observed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard–easy effect.

Two robust phenomena in research on confidence in one's general knowledge are the overconfidence phenomenon and the hard-easy effect. In this article, the authors propose that the hard-easy effect has been interpreted with insufficient attention to the scale-end effects, the linear dependency, and the regression effects in data and that the continued adherence to the idea of a "cognitive overconfidence bias" is mediated by selective attention to particular data sets. A quantitative review of studies with 2-alternative general knowledge items demonstrates that, contrary to widespread belief, there is (a) very little support for a cognitive-processing bias in these data; (b) a difference between representative and selected item samples that is not reducible to the difference in difficulty; and (c) near elimination of the hard-easy effect when there is control for scale-end effects and linear dependency. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment and response.

Presents a stochastic judgment model (SJM) as a framework for addressing a wide range of issues in statement verification and probability judgment. The SJM distinguishes between covert confidence in the truth of a proposition and the selection of an overt response. A series of experiments demonstrated the model's validity and yielded new results: Binary true–false responses were biased toward true relative to underlying judgment. Underlying judgment was also biased in that direction. Also, in a domain about which Ss had some knowledge, they discriminated true and false statements better when they compared complementary pairs before judging individual statements than when they performed those tasks in the opposite order. The results are interpreted in terms of the SJM and are discussed with respect to implications for theories of statement verification and for research on the accuracy of probability judgments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Age-related increase in an advanced glycation end product in penile tissue

Nonenzymatic glycosylation (glycation) of proteins, often referred to as the Maillard reaction, has been proposed to play a role in age and diabetes-related processes by forming protein and DNA adducts and cross-links. These cross-links may contribute to erectile dysfunction by scavenging nitric oxide, which is needed for erection. As the basis for a possible role of the advanced Maillard reaction in age-related erectile dysfunction, we investigated the presence of the specific advanced glycation endproduct (AGE) pentosidine in penile corpus cavernosum tissue and penile tunica albuginea tissue as a function of age. A total of 23 penile tissue specimens were obtained at autopsy, from which 19 samples of tunica albuginea and 21 samples of corpus cavernosum were derived. In addition, 13 penile corporal and tunical specimens were procured at the time of insertion of a penile prosthesis, from which 12 tunica albugineal specimens and 10 samples of corpus cavernosum were derived. Collagen was extracted with acetic acid and pepsin digestion, and the final insoluble collagen product was acid-hydrolyzed with 6 N HCL for 24 h at 110 degrees C. Pentosidine was quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography using a reverse-phase column. The level of pentosidine (expressed in picomoles per milligram of insoluble collagen) was found to increase with age in cadaver as well as living penile corporal and tunical albugineal tissues. Best-fit analysis revealed an exponential increase in both types of cadaver penile tissue, with regression equations of y = 15.29 x 10(9.9e-3x), R2 = 0.79, being obtained in the tunica and y = 13.2 x 10(7.63e-3x), R2 = 0.56, in the corpora. These correspond to 6- and 4-fold increases in pentosidine levels from puberty to the age of 100 years (P < 0.05), respectively. Mean pentosidine levels were higher in the tunica than in the corpora. Comparison of pentosidine levels in the tunica versus the corpora revealed a weakly linear correlation (y = 24.88 + 1.08x, R2 = 0.32). Levels in the tunical and corporal specimens from the living human specimens fell with the predicted confidence intervals of the cadaveric tissue. Tunical specimens from patients who underwent repair or revision of a previously inserted penile prosthesis had very low levels of pentosidine. The exponential age-related increase in pentosidine observed in both types of penile tissue suggests an impairment of collagen turnover, which could be related to the advanced glycation reaction in aging. It is not known whether pentosidine itself is directly associated with erectile dysfunction, but its formation is usually accompanied by extensive tissue modification. Formation of advanced Maillard reaction products, which is greatly accelerated in aging, diabetes, and uremia, could contribute to erectile dysfunction in these syndromes.