Global warming and developing countries: The possibility of a solution by accelerating development

There are concerns that the rapid development of the developing countries will hasten global warming and exacerbate resource problems. That is to say, it is quite possible that we cannot solve the North-South problem while at the same time containing global warming and conserving fossil fuels. But this paper attempts to show that, on the contrary, the fast development of these countries might very well bring about a long-term solution of the global warming problem. A model incorporating development stage theory is built and used to calculate by region the world's economic growth, population growth, energy supply and demand, CO₂ emissions and other items up to the end of the 21st century. Results indicated that if in 2100 world population is about 10 billion (it was 5.1 billion in 1990), world GDP is US$200 trillion (1987 prices; it was US$20 trillion in 1990) and CO₂ emissions are 10 billion tonnes (carbon equivalent; they were 5.8 billion tonnes in 1990), there will be fairly good prospects for solving the North-South, fossil fuel exhaustion and global warming problems. Making this scenario happen will require accelerating development of the developing countries so they quickly join the ranks of the developed countries, expediting the shift to renewable energy in the developed countries by imposing carbon taxes, transferring energy saving technologies from the developed to the developing countries, and other efforts.     

国际石油市场供求格局正在发生结构性变化

从供给和需求两个方面对国际石油市场格局变化进行了分析。在供给方面,探讨了石油探明储量、产能以及产油主体政策调整等因素的影响。主要观点是:石油储量虽然满足未来数10年的世界石油需求,但探明储量增速明显放缓;世界石油产能增长缓慢,导致剩余产能严重不足;产油主体政策调整进一步制约了产能的增长。在需求方面,探讨了世界经济形势、高油价、能源利用效率、替代能源等因素的影响。主要观点是:世界经济保持较快增长,特别是随着发展中国家工业化程度加深,导致石油需求增长迅速;高油价对世界经济的冲击明显减轻,难以改变石油需求快速增长的趋势;由于石油消费集中在运输领域,节能对减少世界石油需求效果有限;高油价虽能推动替代能源的发展,但石油仍将长期保持主体能源地位。通过供需两方面分析,指出当前世界市场石油供需格局正在发生结构性变化,油价将长期在高位波动。     

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

Developing countries’ energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries’ energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban–rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements.     

全球油气生产西移与消费东移的趋势及其影响

因技术进步和高油价,非常规资源正在成为战略接替,西半球油气供应在全球的地位越来越重要,将从净进口变为净出口;发展中国家油气消费进入快速增长期,世界油气需求重心由西向东转移,亚太地区成为世界最大油气消费地区。这些将改变世界油气市场和地缘政治格局,改变世界竞争形势,对中国既是机遇更多的是挑战。要坚持立足国内、增源与节流并举,坚持科学替代和技术创新,坚持增强全球供应能力,坚持参与全球能源治理。     

Recognising the potential for renewable energy heating and cooling

Heating and cooling in the industrial, commercial, and domestic sectors constitute around 40–50% of total global final energy demand. A wide range of renewable energy heating and cooling (REHC) technologies exists but they are presently only used to meet around 2–3% of total world demand (excluding from traditional biomass). Several of these technologies are mature, their markets are growing, and their costs relative to conventional heating and cooling systems continue to decline. However, in most countries, policies developed to encourage the wider deployment of renewable electricity generation, transport biofuels and energy efficiency have over-shadowed policies aimed at REHC technology deployment. This paper, based on the findings of the International Energy Agency publication Renewables for Heating and Cooling—Untapped Potential, outlines the present and future markets and compares the costs of providing heating and cooling services from solar, geothermal and biomass resources. It analyses current policies and experiences and makes recommendations to support enhanced market deployment of REHC technologies to provide greater energy supply security and climate change mitigation. If policies as successfully implemented by the leading countries were to be replicated elsewhere (possibly after modification to better suit local conditions), there would be good potential to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in providing heating and cooling services.     

The limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources

The development of nations is an unquestionable requirement. A lot of challenges concerning health, education and economy are present. A discussion on these development models has occupied the minds of decision makers in recent years. When energy supply and demand is considered, the situation becomes critical and the crucial question is: how to improve the quality of life of developing countries based on available models of development that are related to the life style of developed countries, for which the necessary use and waste of energy are present? How much energy is essential to humanity for not so as to endangering the survival conditions of future generations? The human development index (HDI) establishes the relationship among energy use, economic growth and social growth. Here it can be seen that 75% of the world population has a significant energy consumption potential. This is a strong reason to consider that the sustainable development concepts on energy policies are strategic to the future of the planet. This paper deals with the importance of seeking alternative development models for human development balance, natural resources conservation and environment through rational energy use concepts.     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

A review of building energy regulation and policy for energy conservation in developing countries

The rapid growth of energy use, worldwide, hfs raised concerns over problems of energy supply and exhaustion of energy resources. Most of the developed countries are implementing building energy regulations such as energy standards, codes etc., to reduce building energy consumption. The position of developing countries with respect to energy regulations implementation and enforcement is either poorly documented or not documented at all. In addition, there is a lack of consistent data, which makes it difficult to understand the underlying changes that affect energy regulation implementation in developing countries. In that respect, this paper investigates the progress of building energy regulations in developing countries and its implication for energy conservation and efficiency. The present status of building energy regulations in 60 developing countries around the world was analysed through a survey of building energy regulations using online survey. The study revealed the present progress made on building energy regulations in relation to implementation, development and compliance; at the same time the study recommends possible solutions to the barriers facing building energy regulation implementation in the developing world.     

Technical-economic aspects of the utilization of geothermal waters

This paper reports on the world energy consumption between 1960 and 1984 from primary energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil, hydropower, nuclear energy) and the same in percentages from 1925. This highlights the diminishing role of coal and the increased consumption of gas and oil. The latter has stabilized around 42% of the total after the drop in demand resulting from the oil crisis of 1973.The world energy consumption has then been divided into industrialized and developing countries. It appears that the latter, with a population equal to 68% of the total world population, consumed 23% of the world energy in 1982. Furthermore, the consumption figures show that the demand for domestic energy is much smaller in developing countries, and it is well-known that domestic energy consumed is one of the parameters used to assess standard of living.The total installed electric capacity throughout the world is then reported, divided between developed and developing countries, showing that the latter consumed 11% of all the electricity generated in the world in 1981. The world installed electric power of geothermal origin at the end of 1985 is shown, along with estimates for 1990. Geothermal energy represents 0.2% of the world electric power. This is obviously a small figure and indicates that geothermal energy plays a minor role on the world energy scene. However, if we distinguish between industrialized and developing countries, we can observe that, with their currently limited electrical consumption but good geothermal prospects, the developing countries could achieve quite a significant contribution to their total electric energy from that of geothermal origin, increasing at the moment from 3 to 19%.Finally, a comparison is made between electricity generating costs of different sources, showing that geothermal energy is competitive. A table illustrates the world evolution in installed geothermal capacity from 1950 to 1985.The non-electric uses of geothermal energy, on the other hand, have a rather insignificant role in both the developing and industrialized countries. It is unlikely that geothermal energy will ever achieve a greater significance in this sector, with a few rare exceptions.     

Subsidised Solar Lighting: The Only Option for 1 Billion People

Remote rural communities in developing countries are at a similar economic stage of development as was the developed world more than 100 years ago when electricity was used for more than 50 years for lighting and radio only. Not until people could afford refrigerators did electricity demand grow. Without direct capital subsidies by governments and cross subsidies by utilities the developed world would not be as developed as it currently is and certainly not those communities outside major cities and towns. Many rural areas in the developed world would be in a similar energy plight to those currently in the developing world! There currently is no technology that can meet a subsidy free energy supply anywhere in remote rural communities. The least cost option to meet the basic energy needs for the remote developing world is a properly designed solar system (systems designed up to an availability level not down to a price). To supply the one billion people without access to electricity would cost about US$112 billion (2005 $) in total subsidies using solar. But this will be less than the US$450 billion (2005) subsidy to meet their basic lighting needs using diesel energy.The user pays principle might work for McDonalds but 20 years working in developing countries has clearly demonstrated that there is something dramatically wrong with the current economic paradigms where basic infrastructure is required. It should not be the Private Sector that funds the development of remote rural lighting, they have demonstrated that they can only deliver too little too late, but the Public sector through their existing utilities with government direct subsidies if another generation is not to be lost to development. To demonstrate the need for a paradigm shift, over the past 20 years I have implemented and installed solar projects worth more than US$100million in many developing countries, but none with their utilities or energy departments. All the projects have been with rural development authorities that recognised the immediate need of their constituents and were not at all fussed by the concept of subsidisation. They actually know what it was like on the ground. Something that many energy authorities and utilities I fear have no idea about.     

金融危机并未改变世界主要石化及化工公司能源战略

金融危机导致世界石油需求下降、国际油价下跌,但世界主要石化及化工公司的能源战略并未改变。它们继续为未来能源需求的增长投资,仍然把加强能源管理、节能、提高能效作为公司的首要任务。与此同时,积极参与太阳能、风能、生物质能及电动车等新能源市场的技术研发,开发各种替代能源的创新技术,以期对替代能源市场的发展发挥重要作用,扩大效益增长源。     

IT substitution for energy leads to a resilient structure for a survival strategy of Japan's electric power industry

The dramatic surge in information technology (IT) around the world, and an evolving global economy, are subjecting firms to megacompetition. This is the case, particularly in Japan's electric power industry, where the power rate is one of the highest in the world; hence it is noted that Japan's industry has lost its price competitiveness in the world market, resulting in stagnation of production, hence leading to stagnation in power demand. In addition, an increase in trends of customer's preferences and the variety of participants in the power supply race, have put electric power companies at the mercy of customers with alternative supply sources.Given that uncertainty with respect to energy security, as well as power generation and distribution systems safety increases, as strongly cautioned by the recent blackout in the US and Canada, a dramatic conversion of existing strategies would be indispensable for electric power companies. A conversion from a high-demand-elasticity dependent, supply structure to a resilient structure is required. While the former aims at constructing a high-demand-elasticity supply structure, based on the myth of high growth of demand, the latter aims at maintaining profit, while minimizing the elasticities of factors with high uncertainty, such as energy resources and costly capital investment linked to a fluctuating power demand.This paper demonstrates the significance of IT substitution for energy through consortia structure, thereby utilizing IT spillover and leading to resilience and leveraging consortia structure as Japan's electric power industry survival strategy. An empirical analysis using Japan's nine leading electric power companies over the last quarter century has been conducted.     

Comparative analysis of different grid-independent hybrid power generation systems for a residential load

Demand of electricity is rising all over the world, both in developing and developed countries due to escalation in world population and economic growth. The exploitation of renewable energy is imperative to mitigate energy crisis and to avoid the environmental downfall. The stochastic nature of many renewable energy sources sets techno-economic and functional limitations in their application for covering most types of energy needs. These limitations can be surmounted if a renewable and a conventional energy source are combined to formulate a hybrid generation power system.This paper examines the techno-economic feasibility of four hybrid power generation systems applied to cover the demand of a typical off-grid residence for a 20 years period. Each one of these hybrid power solutions should involve at least one renewable energy source technology and be able to cover all load needs. Four applications are investigated for each hybrid system, accounting to different geographical areas in Greece with diverse solar and aeolic profile. A comparative analysis is followed to set off the optimal solution based on a minimal total cost criterion.     

Application of photovoltaic array for pumping water as an alternative to diesel engines in Jordan Badia,Tall Hassan station: Case study

The availability of water and the ability to access are the key questions arising in developing countries including Jordan, which is the fourth poorest country in the world regarding water resources. Renewable energy, especially solar energy, can potentially play a role in the supply of safe water in Jordan Badia, where nearly 80% of the total area of Jordan is Badia, and in most cases these deep wells are far away from the national grid electricity, and in some of these areas there is an important quantity of groundwater at shallow depths. This paper introduces and compares the cost-effectiveness and the Present Value Cost (PVC) for the economic evaluation of power supply for pumping systems in remote areas in Northern Badia of Jordan by two different energy supply systems, photovoltaic systems and diesel engines.Many variables are taken into account such as the fuel prices, and the required investments. The comparison is made for a wide range of variable values, total head, tank capacity, photovoltaic array peak power and pumping requirements. A case study in Tall Hassan station is conducted to analyze the two power supply pumping systems, which are designed to supply drinking water.The results obtained are useful for choosing the best alternative for the power supply of pumping systems in wells in Northern Badia of Jordan.     

Adjustment and energy: Dangers of a demand-side obsession

Short-term energy adjustment, based on the now-dominant IMF model, is in strong conflict with that required for longer term development and growth. The world economic recovery is threatened by structural, cyclical, and other factors, including the debt problem of developing countries, commodity price surges, and potential energy problems. Short-term adjustment impacts on longer-term policy and investment in the energy sector, assuring that economic recovery will demand rapid increases in oil imports for oil-importer developing countries. National policies in industrial countries to squeeze energy have been very successful, but have likely deepened the recession and intensified some cyclic aspects of investment and development. Oil supply is still strongly influenced by OPEC, and only through heightened appreciation of recession-recovery cycles will the tremendous importance of the potential resources of oil-importer developing countries be recognized - a first step towards the inevitably multilateral framework needed for their development.     

Renewable energy options: What could developing countries expect from them?

In order to make a realistic assessment of the energy alternatives for the developing world, the present conditions of the developing region, consisting of Africa and Asia (excluding South Africa, Japan and China), are studied first. Highlights include: low commercial energy consumption (0.2 kW/cap), heavy dependence on oil and noncommercial energy, and especially poor conditions of the rural energy supply.Since fossil fuels need to be conserved and nuclear energy is not an option for many of the developing countries, what renewable options could bring is evaluated in detail. Socio-techno-economic parameters for developing and employing renewable energy sources are identified for biogas, wood plantation, solar, and hydropower. The study concludes that the developing countries could obtain 35% of the energy in 2030 with the low-demand scenario of 0.9 kW/cap. However, with the high-demand scenario of 1.4 kW/cap, active policies in nuclear energy and fossil fuels as well would be required.     

Energy and agriculture in developing countries

The author explains trends in energy use in agriculture in developing countries at the global, national and farm level. It is shown that energy input in traditional agriculture is quite significant if the role of animals is taken into account. The author explains how currently agriculture makes a net energy contribution towards meeting the basic needs of cooking, heating and local industry, and with the modernization of agriculture, the availability of crop residues and animal wastes is expected to decline, widening the gap between demand and supply of energy for the survival needs of the poor in developing countries. The author states that there is an immediate need to initiate policies and programmes — such as energy pricing, subsidies, biogas plants and gasification units — to improve the efficiency of agro-energy.     

Trends of energy demand in the Middle East: A sectoral level analysis

The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made.     

Global wind power development: Economics and policies

Existing literature indicates that theoretically, the earth's wind energy supply potential significantly exceeds global energy demand. Yet, only 2–3% of global electricity demand is currently derived from wind power despite 27% annual growth in wind generating capacity over the last 17 years. More than 95% of total current wind power capacity is installed in the developed countries plus China and India. Our analysis shows that the economic competitiveness of wind power varies at wider range across countries or locations. A climate change damage cost of US$20/tCO₂ imposed to fossil fuels would make onshore wind competitive to all fossil fuels for power generation; however, the same would not happen to offshore wind, with few exceptions, even if the damage cost is increased to US$100/tCO₂. To overcome a large number of technical, financial, institutional, market and other barriers to wind power, many countries have employed various policy instruments, including capital subsidies, tax incentives, tradable energy certificates, feed-in tariffs, grid access guarantees and mandatory standards. Besides, climate change mitigation policies, such as the Clean Development Mechanism, have played a pivotal role in promoting wind power. Despite these policies, intermittency, the main technical constraint, could remain as the major challenge to the future growth of wind power.     

Technology learning in a small open economy—The systems,modelling and exploiting the learning effect

This paper reviews the characteristics of technology learning and discusses its application in energy system modelling in a global–local perspective. Its influence on the national energy system, exemplified by Norway, is investigated using a global and national Markal model. The dynamic nature of the learning system boundary and coupling between the national energy system and the global development and manufacturing system is elaborated. Some criteria important for modelling of spillover ¹ are suggested. Particularly, to ensure balance in global energy demand and supply and accurately reflect alternative global pathways spillover for all technologies as well as energy carrier cost/prices should be estimated under the same global scenario. The technology composition, CO₂ emissions and system cost in Norway up to 2050 exhibit sensitivity to spillover. Moreover, spillover may reduce both CO₂ emissions and total system cost. National energy system analysis of low carbon society should therefore consider technology development paths in global policy scenarios. Without the spillover from international deployment a domestic technology relies only on endogenous national learning. However, with high but realistic learning rates offshore floating wind may become cost-efficient even if initially deployed only in Norwegian niche markets.