A fuzzy logic based approach to reliability improvement estimation during product development

During early stages of product development process, a vast amount of knowledge and information is generated. However, most of it is subjective (imprecise) in nature and remains unutilized. This paper presents a formal structure for capturing this information and knowledge and utilizing it in reliability improvement estimation. The information is extracted as improvement indices from various design tools, experiments, and design review records and treated as fuzzy numbers or linguistic variables. Fuzzy reasoning method is used to combine and quantify the subjective information to map their impact on product reliability. The crisp output of the fuzzy reasoning process is treated as new evidence and incorporated into a Bayesian framework to update the reliability estimates. A case example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.     

Bayesian Weibull reliability estimation

The Weibull distribution is widely used as a failure model, particularly for mechanical components. This distribution is rich in shape and requires a fairly large sample size to produce accurate statistical estimators, particularly for the lower percentiles, as is usually required for a reliability analysis. In practice, sample sizes are almost always small and subjective judgement is applied, aided by a Weibull plot of the test data to determine the adequacy of the component design to meet reliability goals. The procedure is somewhat ad hoc, but apparently reasonably good results are obtained based on our experience with many past design and development programs and by comparison with actual field performance. We conjecture that the reason this procedure is successful is that test programs and methodology are standardized and quite well documented, from the standpoint of the physical test parameters. Test personnel have a wealth of experience in testing components, from one program to the next, and reliability judgements are made with regard to well-known points in the product's life. All of these factors tend to promote correct outcomes from the decision process even though sample sizes are small.

The Bayesian approach provides some structure for the application of subjective judgement to this decision process. To apply this approach, several complex decisions must be made. In this article, we have provided a structure for this decision process.     

Reliability analysis for electronic devices using beta‐Weibull distribution

Today, in reliability analysis, the most used distribution to describe the behavior of electronic products under voltage profiles is the Weibull distribution. Nevertheless, the Weibull distribution does not provide a good fit to lifetime datasets that exhibit bathtub‐shaped or upside‐down bathtub–shaped (unimodal) failure rates, which are often encountered in the reliability analysis of electronic devices. In this paper, a reliability model based on the beta‐Weibull distribution and the inverse power law is proposed. This new model provides a better approach to model the performance and fit of the lifetimes of electronic devices. To estimate the parameters of the proposed model, a Bayesian analysis is used. A case study based on the lifetime of a surface mounted electrolytic capacitor is presented, the results showed that the estimation of the proposed model differs from the inverse power law–Weibull and that it affects directly the mean time to failure, the failure rate, the behavior, and the performance of the capacitor under analysis.     

Fuzzy belief propagation in constrained Bayesian networks with application to maintenance decisions

Bayesian networks have been widely applied to domains such as medical diagnosis, fault analysis, and preventative maintenance. In some applications, because of insufficient data and the complexity of the system, fuzzy parameters and additional constraints derived from expert knowledge can be used to enhance the Bayesian reasoning process. However, very few methods are capable of handling the belief propagation in constrained fuzzy Bayesian networks (CFBNs). This paper therefore develops an improved approach which addresses the inference problem through a max-min programming model. The proposed approach yields more reasonable inference results and with less computational effort. By integrating the probabilistic inference drawn from diverse sources of information with decision analysis considering a decision-maker's risk preference, a CFBN-based decision framework is presented for seeking optimal maintenance decisions in a risk-based environment. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated based on an application to a gas compressor maintenance decision problem.     

Reliability Analysis for Degradation of Locomotive Wheels using Parametric Bayesian Approach

This paper undertakes a reliability study using a Bayesian survival analysis framework to explore the impact of a locomotive wheel's installed position on its service lifetime and to predict its reliability characteristics. The Bayesian Exponential Regression Model, Bayesian Weibull Regression Model and Bayesian Log‐normal Regression Model are used to analyze the lifetime of locomotive wheels using degradation data and taking into account the position of the wheel. This position is described by three different discrete covariates: the bogie, the axle and the side of the locomotive where the wheel is mounted. The goal is to determine reliability, failure distribution and optimal maintenance strategies for the wheel. The results show that: (i) under specified assumptions and a given topography, the position of the locomotive wheel could influence its reliability and lifetime; (ii) the Bayesian Log‐normal Regression Model is a useful tool. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework for developing engineering design ontologies within the aerospace industry

This paper presents a framework for developing engineering design ontologies within the aerospace industry. The aim of this approach is to strengthen the modularity and reuse of engineering design ontologies to support knowledge management initiatives within the aerospace industry. Successful development and effective utilisation of engineering ontologies strongly depends on the method/framework used to develop them. Ensuring modularity in ontology design is essential for engineering design activities due to the complexity of knowledge that is required to be brought together to support the product design decision-making process. The proposed approach adopts best practices from previous ontology development methods, but focuses on encouraging modular architectural ontology design. The framework is comprised of three phases namely: (1) Ontology design and development; (2) Ontology validation and (3) Implementation of ontology structure. A qualitative research methodology is employed which is composed of four phases. The first phase defines the capture of knowledge required for the framework development, followed by the ontology framework development, iterative refinement of engineering ontologies and ontology validation through case studies and experts’ opinion. The ontology-based framework is applied in the combustor and casing aerospace engineering domain. The modular ontologies developed as a result of applying the framework and are used in a case study to restructure and improve the accessibility of information on a product design information-sharing platform. Additionally, domain experts within the aerospace industry validated the strengths, benefits and limitations of the framework. Due to the modular nature of the developed ontologies, they were also employed to support other project initiatives within the case study company such as role-based computing (RBC), IT modernisation activity and knowledge management implementation across the sponsoring organisation. The major benefit of this approach is in the reduction of man-hours required for maintaining engineering design ontologies. Furthermore, this approach strengthens reuse of ontology knowledge and encourages modularity in the design and development of engineering ontologies.     

Integration of computation and testing for reliability estimation

This paper develops a methodology to integrate reliability testing and computational reliability analysis for product development. The presence of information uncertainty such as statistical uncertainty and modeling error is incorporated. The integration of testing and computation leads to a more cost-efficient estimation of failure probability and life distribution than the tests-only approach currently followed by the industry. A Bayesian procedure is proposed to quantify the modeling uncertainty using random parameters, including the uncertainty in mechanical and statistical model selection and the uncertainty in distribution parameters. An adaptive method is developed to determine the number of tests needed to achieve a desired confidence level in the reliability estimates, by combining prior computational prediction and test data. Two kinds of tests — failure probability estimation and life estimation — are considered. The prior distribution and confidence interval of failure probability in both cases are estimated using computational reliability methods, and are updated using the results of tests performed during the product development phase.     

Bayesian estimation of mixed Weibull distributions

Estimation of mixed Weibull distribution by maximum likelihood estimation and other methods is frequently difficult due to unstable estimates arising from limited data. Bayesian techniques can stabilize these estimates through the priors, but there is no closed-form conjugate family for the Weibull distribution. This paper reduces the number of numeric integrations required for using Bayesian estimation on mixed Weibull situations from five to two, thus making it a more feasible approach to the typical user. It also examines the robustness of the Bayesian estimates under a variety of different prior distributions. It is found that Bayesian estimation can improve accuracy over the MLE for situations with low mixture ratios so long as the prior on the weak subpopulation's characteristic life has an expected value less than or equal to the true characteristic life.     

考虑可靠度可信区间的结构可靠性优化设计

 在贝叶斯统计理论和结构可靠性优化设计方法的基础上,研究了结构在小样本情况下考虑可靠度可信区间的结构可靠性优化设计问题.将结构可靠度作为随机变量,根据先验信息和样本信息,采用贝叶斯推断技术获得结构可靠度的概率分布,给出了可靠度的点估计及区间估计.建立了考虑可靠度可信区间的结构可靠性优化设计模型,提出了考虑可靠度可信区间的结构可靠性优化设计方法.所提出的方法为解决小样本情况下的结构可靠性优化设计问题提供了新的解决方案.数值算例验证了所提出的结构可靠性优化设计方法的有效性和正确性.     

Field Reliability Prediction in Consumer Electronics Using Warranty Data

In innovative fast product development processes, such as consumer electronics, it is necessary to check as quickly as possible, using field data, whether the product reliability is at the right level. In consumer electronics, some major companies use the Warranty Call Rate (WCR) for this purpose. This paper discusses extensively the theoretical and practical drawbacks of the WCR. Subsequently, it is demonstrated, using a Weibull failure distribution, that only a few months after product launch, say three months, the warranty data offer the opportunity to estimate the parameters of the failure distribution. Of course, this requires that the warranty data are available in the quality department. Unfortunately, for some companies the field feedback information process from the repair centres to the quality department causes a delay of several months. These companies have to speed up their field feedback information process before they can fully take advantage of the proposed estimation procedure. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An exploratory study of a neural network approach for reliability data analysis

The results of this paper show that neural networks could be a very promising tool for reliability data analysis. Identifying the underlying distribution of a set of failure data and estimating its distribution parameters are necessary in reliability engineering studies. In general, either a chi-square or a non-parametric goodness-of-fit test is used in the distribution identification process which includes the pattern interpretation of the failure data histograms. However, those procedures can guarantee neither an accurate distribution identification nor a robust parameter estimation when small data samples are available. Basically, the graphical approach of distribution fitting is a pattern recognition problem and parameter estimation is a classification problem where neural networks have been proved to be a suitable tool. This paper presents an exploratory study of a neural network approach, validated by simulated experiments, for analysing small-sample reliability data. A counter-propagation network is used in classifying normal, uniform, exponential and Weibull distributions. A back-propagation network is used in the parameter estimation of a two-parameter Weibull distribution.     

Fuzzy multiple objective decision making approach to prioritize design requirements in quality function deployment

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-oriented design tool for developing new or improved products to increase customer satisfaction by integrating marketing, design engineering, manufacturing, and other related functions of an organization. QFD focuses on delivering value by taking into account customer needs and then deploying this information throughout the development process. Although QFD aims to maximize customer satisfaction, technology and cost considerations limit the number and the extent of the possible design requirements that can be incorporated into a product. This paper presents a fuzzy multiple objective programming approach that incorporates imprecise and subjective information inherent in the QFD planning process to determine the level of fulfilment of design requirements. Linguistic variables are employed to represent the imprecise design information and the importance degree of each design objective. The fuzzy Delphi method is utilized to achieve the consensus of customers in determining the importance of customer needs. A pencil design example illustrates the application of the multiple objective decision analysis.     

A WWW-based integrated product development platform for sheet metal parts intelligent concurrent design and manufacturing

This paper presents a WWW (World Wide Web) based integrated product development platform for intelligent concurrent design and manufacturing of sheet metal parts. In order to achieve this platform, several major modules are discussed. These modules mainly include the structure of the WWW-based integrated product development platform, an information integration framework, a RTCAPP (real time computer aided process planning) module, a customer interface module, and a design/manufacturing knowledge-based module for supporting product design and manufacturing. This paper gives the structure of the information integration framework for concurrent design and manufacturing of sheet metal parts. An information integration framework, called 'step structure information framework' is proposed. The principles, called 'zero thickness and zero bend radius' are put forward, which can be used to abstract the geometric entities of sheet metal parts in order to facilitate product design and modelling. Finally, case studies are given.     

Component reliability assessment using quantitative and qualitative data

The estimation of a component failure rate depends on the availability of plant specific numerical data. The purpose of this study was development of a new method that explicitly includes numerical and linguistic information into the assessment of a specific failure rate. The basis of the method is the Bayesian updating approach. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas likelihood is assessed using the principles of fuzzy set theory. The influence of component operating conditions on component failure rate is modeled using a fuzzy inference system. Results of fuzzy reasoning are then used for building an appropriate likelihood function for the Bayesian inference.The method was applied on a high voltage transformer. Results show that with the proposed method, one can estimate the specific failure rate and analyze possible measures to improve component reliability. The method can be used for specific applications including components for which there is not enough numerical data for specific evaluation.     

A warranty forecasting model based on piecewise statistical distributions and stochastic simulation

This paper presents a warranty forecasting method based on stochastic simulation of expected product warranty returns. This methodology is presented in the context of a high-volume product industry and has a specific application to automotive electronics. The warranty prediction model is based on a piecewise application of Weibull and exponential distributions, having three parameters, which are the characteristic life and shape parameter of the Weibull distribution and the time coordinate of the junction point of the two distributions. This time coordinate is the point at which the reliability ‘bathtub’ curve exhibits a transition between early life and constant hazard rate behavior. The values of the parameters are obtained from the optimum fitting of data on past warranty claims for similar products. Based on the analysis of past warranty returns it is established that even though the warranty distribution parameters vary visibly between product lines they stay approximately consistent within the same product family, which increases the overall accuracy of the simulation-based warranty forecasting technique. The method is demonstrated using a case study of automotive electronics warranty returns. The approach developed and demonstrated in this paper represents a balance between correctly modeling the failure rate trend changes and practicality for use by reliability analysis organizations.     

System reliability prediction based on historical data

This paper describes the development and implementation of a computerized reliability prediction model at the IBM facility located in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Through the analysis of historical life-test data, the model provides maximum likelihood estimates of the assumed Weibull life distributions of various types of components. The resulting component life distribution estimates are used to predict the reliability of new system configurations. This approach is based upon the well-known theory of competing risks. Our model, however, is unique in that it allows for the analysis of a pooled set of life data, i.e. life data from different types of systems, to obtain component estimates. This feature greatly generalizes the competing risks framework and hence offers advantages over the more traditional approach. We present the model and discuss various issues that were found to be critical to its successful implementation at IBM.     

Bayesian system reliability assessment under fuzzy environments

The Bayesian system reliability assessment under fuzzy environments is proposed in this paper. In order to apply the Bayesian approach, the fuzzy parameters are assumed as fuzzy random variables with fuzzy prior distributions. The (conventional) Bayes estimation method will be used to create the fuzzy Bayes point estimator of system reliability by invoking the well-known theorem called ‘Resolution Identity’ in fuzzy sets theory. On the other hand, we also provide the computational procedures to evaluate the membership degree of any given Bayes point estimate of system reliability. In order to achieve this purpose, we transform the original problem into a nonlinear programming problem. This nonlinear programming problem is then divided into four subproblems for the purpose of simplifying computation. Finally, the subproblems can be solved by using any commercial optimizers, e.g. GAMS or LINGO.     

Modelling infant failure rate of electromechanical products with multilayered quality variations from manufacturing process

The optimisation of product infant failure rate is the most important and difficult task for continuous improvement in manufacturing; how to model the infant failure rate promptly and accurately of the complex electromechanical product in manufacturing is always a dilemma for manufacturers. Traditional methods of reliability analysis for the produced product usually rely on limited test data or field failures, the valuable information of quality variations from the manufacturing process has not been fully utilised. In this paper, a multilayered model structured by ‘part-level, component-level, system-level’ is presented to model the reliability in the form of infant failure rate by quantifying holistic quality variations from manufacturing process for electromechanical products. The mechanism through which the multilayered quality variations affect the infant failure rate is modelled analytically with a positive correlation structure. Furthermore, an integrated failure rate index is derived to model the reliability of electromechanical product in manufacturing by synthetically incorporating overall quality variations with Weibull distribution. A case study on a control board suffering from infant failures in batch production is performed. Results show that the proposed approach could be effective in assessing the infant failure rate and in diagnosing the effectiveness of quality control in manufacturing.