Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO₂-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.     

Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy

This paper analyzes the relationship between current renewable energy technology costs and cumulative production, research, development and demonstration expenditures, and other institutional influences. Combining the theoretical framework of ‘learning by doing’ and developments in ‘learning by searching’ with the fields of organizational learning and institutional economics offers a complete methodological framework to examine the underlying capital cost trajectory when developing electricity cost estimates used in energy policy planning models. Sensitivities of the learning rates for global wind and solar photovoltaic technologies to changes in the model parameters are tested. The implications of the results indicate that institutional policy instruments play an important role for these technologies to achieve cost reductions and further market adoption.     

Research on task scheduling and concurrent processing technology for energy internet operation platform

The energy Internet operation platform provides market entities such as energy users, energy enterprises, suppliers, and governments with the ability to interact, transact, and manage various operations. Owing to the large number of platform users, complex businesses, and large amounts of data-mining tasks, it is necessary to solve the problems afflicting platform task scheduling and the provision of simultaneous access to a large number of users. This study examines the two core technologies of platform task scheduling and multiuser concurrent processing, proposing a distributed task- scheduling method and a technical implementation scheme based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm, and presents a systematic solution in concurrent processing for massive user numbers. Based on the results of this study, the energy internet operation platform can effectively deal with the concurrent access of tens of millions of users and complex task-scheduling problems.     

意大利的节能和可再生能源激励机制

新能源与可再生能源产业是具有环境效益的弱势产业，在市场化过程中面临着诸多的障碍和问题，政府支持是新能源与可再生能源市场培育的原动力。不论是发达国家还是发展中国家，新能源与可再生能源的发展离不开政府的支持，如投融资、税收、补贴、市场渗透等一系列的优惠政策。文章介绍了意大利在节能和可再生能源方面的激励政策。     

Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth

This paper decomposes US energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors: activity, structure, and intensity. For this study we use a bottom-up methodology, by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors: travel, freight, manufacturing industries, non-manufacturing industries, residential, and services. The most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy, the ratio of energy consumed to unit of GDP (E/GDP) created can often be misleading. The rapid decline in the E/GDP ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies. However, our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970. The decline in the E/GDP ratio in the mid- to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities.     

Top down strategy for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and implementation

Electricity market is undergoing a tremendous transformation throughout the world. A drastic reduction of carbon emission cannot be realized if renewable energy resources are not increased in share of generation mix. Currently, most of the traditional mechanisms, including regulatory policies, fiscal incentives and public financing, are initiated from and heavily relied on policymakers and governments. However, not only these schemes do not necessarily align with business interests of investors, but also the motivations for renewable energy developments are always initiated by governments. In order to realize the full potential of renewable energy investment, an innovative approach is necessary to motivate investors and lessen government expenditures.In this paper, we present a top down strategy for renewable energy investment. The proposed approach is a three-step framework. By applying the approach, renewable energy global market leaders and trends will be identified and analyzed that included: (1) economics and renewable energy policy, (2) specific renewable energy sectors that presents the most attractive investment opportunity, (3) and finally the most promising renewable energy investment vehicles for investors. Other stakeholders can also use the developed framework, such as consumers and policymakers, to make socio-economic decisions and assess renewable energy investments.     

Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.     

U.S. state policies for renewable energy: Context and effectiveness

Over the past decade, state policies on renewable energy have been on the rise in the U.S., providing states with various options for encouraging the generation of renewable electricity. Two promising policies, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Mandatory Green Power Option (MGPO), have been implemented in many states but the evidence about their effectiveness is mixed. In this paper, we argue that recognizing the natural, social, and policy context under which MGPO and RPS are adopted is necessary in order to measure their true effectiveness. This is because the context rather than the policy might lead to positive outcomes and there is the possibility for sample bias. When controlling for the context in which the policies are implemented, we find that RPS has a negative impact on investments in renewable capacity. However, we find that investor-owned utilities seem to respond more positively to RPS mandates than publicly owned utilities. By contrast, MGPO appears to have a significant effect on installed renewable capacity for all utilities regardless of the context in which it is implemented.     

Quality uncertainty and the market for renewable energy: Evidence from German consumers

Consumers can choose from a wide range of electricity supply contracts, including green power options. Electricity produced from renewable energy involves information asymmetries. With a sample of more than 2,000 German electricity consumers, we tested the proposition of a “lemon market” for renewable energy in a discrete choice experiment. Specifically, we found that, compared to investor-owned firms, additional willingness-to-pay for renewable energy is approximately double when offered by cooperatives or municipally-owned electricity utilities. Consumers who are experienced with switching suppliers have an additional willingness-to-pay of one Eurocent per kilowatt hour for cooperatives and two Eurocents for public enterprises. The results demonstrate that organizational transformation in dynamically-changing electricity markets is not only driven by political initiatives but also by consumers' choices on the market. Public policy may reduce information asymmetries by promoting government labeling of green energy products.     

Hydrogen from renewable energy: A pilot plant for thermal production and mobility

In the mainframe of a research contract, a feasibility pre-design study of a hydrogen-fuelled Laboratory-Village has been carried out: the goals are the design and the simulation of a demonstration plant based on hydrogen as primary fuel. The hydrogen is produced by electrolysis, from electric power produced by a mix of hydroelectric and solar photovoltaic plants. The plant will be located in a small remote village in Valle d’Aosta (Italy). This country has large water availability from glaciers and mountains, so electricity production from fluent water hydroelectric plants is abundant and cheap. Therefore, the production of hydrogen during the night (instead of selling the electricity to the grid at very low prices) could become a good economic choice, and hydrogen could be a competitive local fuel in term of costs, if compared to oil or gas. The H₂ will be produced and stored, and used to feed a hydrogen vehicle and for thermal purposes (heating requirement of three buildings), allowing a real field test (Village-Laboratory).     

Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government

Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.     

Hydrogen-based systems for integration of renewable energy in power systems: Achievements and perspectives

This paper is a critical review of selected real-world energy storage systems based on hydrogen, ranging from lab-scale systems to full-scale systems in continuous operation. 15 projects are presented with a critical overview of their concept and performance. A review of research related to power electronics, control systems and energy management strategies has been added to integrate the findings with outlooks usually described in separate literature. Results show that while hydrogen energy storage systems are technically feasible, they still require large cost reductions to become commercially attractive. A challenge that affects the cost per unit of energy is the low energy efficiency of some of the system components in real-world operating conditions. Due to losses in the conversion and storage processes, hydrogen energy storage systems lose anywhere between 60 and 85% of the incoming electricity with current technology. However, there are currently very few alternatives for long-term storage of electricity in power systems so the interest in hydrogen for this application remains high from both industry and academia. Additionally, it is expected that the share of intermittent renewable energy in power systems will increase in the coming decades. This could lead to technology development and cost reductions within hydrogen technology if this technology is needed to store excess renewable energy. Results from the reviewed projects indicate that the best solution from a technical viewpoint consists in hybrid systems where hydrogen is combined with short-term energy storage technologies like batteries and supercapacitors. In these hybrid systems the advantages with each storage technology can be fully exploited to maximize efficiency if the system is specifically tailored to the given situation. The disadvantage is that this will obviously increase the complexity and total cost of the energy system. Therefore, control systems and energy management strategies are important factors to achieve optimal results, both in terms of efficiency and cost. By considering the reviewed projects and evaluating operation modes and control systems, new hybrid energy systems could be tailored to fit each situation and to reduce energy losses.     

Designing renewable energy auctions for India: Managing risks to maximize deployment and cost-effectiveness

We examined 20 renewable energy auctions in India and elsewhere to answer two questions: first, have auctions been effective; and second, how can they be designed to achieve India’s renewable energy targets? The significant contributions lie in the larger sample size, use of secondary and primary research, and application of quantitative and qualitative analysis. We found that auctions are almost always cost-effective, with savings up to 58% from baseline feed-in tariffs. However, auctions may not always be deployment-effective, with only 17% of the auctions with greater than 75% deployment. We then examined how to best design auctions by assessing seven major risks, and found the following: first, for every 1% increase in total risk, deployment effectiveness decreased by 2% points; second, project specific risks have 60% greater impact than auction specific risks; and third, deployment effectiveness is most affected by auction design, completion, and financial risks. We also found that effectiveness of auctions in India can be improved by ensuring competition, improving transmission infrastructure, providing payment guarantees, using pay-as-bid auctions, including stringent penalties for delays, and introducing auctions in a controlled manner.     

Public support for energy sources and related technologies: The impact of simple information provision

Increasing public awareness and understanding of alternative energy sources and related technologies is an essential component of informed decision-making regarding new options of generating energy for a low carbon future. The current study examined the influence of psychological factors (i.e., pro-environmental beliefs, and subjective norms) and the provision of factual information on public support for a range of energy sources and related technologies. A representative sample of 1907 Australians completed an on-line survey that measured perceptions of a range of climate change and energy issues. Results showed that support for renewables is stronger than support for traditional fossil-fuel based energy sources (i.e., coal or gas) or nuclear energy. The provision of factual information about generation cost and emissions significantly changed support ratings, particularly when cost information was provided. Regression analyses revealed that pro-environmental beliefs were significantly related to support ratings for alternative energy sources. Subjective norms, however, were the strongest positive explanatory factor, suggesting that social mechanisms may be key drivers of support for new and emerging energy sources and related technologies.     

The diverging paths of German and United States policies for renewable energy: Sources of difference

The United States and Germany started out with very similar policies for renewable energy after the energy crisis of the 1970s. By the year 2000 they were on very different policy paths and, as a result, the German renewable energy industry has moved well ahead of that in the United States, both in terms of installed capacity in the country and in terms of creating a highly successful export market. In this paper, we reject some of the conventional explanations for this difference. Instead, these differences arise from the intersection of contingent historical events with the distinctive institutional and social structures that affect policy making in each country. Our analysis of the historical path-dependent dynamics of each country suggests that those who wish to further renewable energy policy in the United States need to take into account these institutional and social factors so that they will better be able to exploit the next set of favorable historical circumstances.     

Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis

This is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for 27 European countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1997-2007 using a random effect model and including final energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and employment as additional independent variables in the model. Empirical results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption and GDP, although panel causality tests unfold short-run relationships between renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions and employment. The estimated cointegration factor refrains from unity, indicating only a weak, if any, relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in Europe, suggesting evidence of the neutrality hypothesis, which can partly be explained by the uneven and insufficient exploitation of renewable energy sources across Europe.     

EC FPVI co-ordinated action on ocean energy: A European platform for sharing technical information and research outcomes in wave and tidal energy systems

Energy from the oceans has the potential to make major contributions towards renewable energy targets being adopted by European Governments over the next 10–15 years. To transform this from a possibility into a reality within the time frames requires numerous support frameworks to be implemented which assist research and demonstration programmes and stimulated the sharing of knowledge and resource information between all relevant parties. The EC funded Co-ordinated Action on Ocean Energy puts into place funding and a platform to enables device developers, wave and tidal energy researchers and standards agencies to share knowledge and information which will facilitate the transition of wave and tidal energy from an energy research technology to one approaching commercial competitiveness within the medium-term time frame, 2010–2015.     

Markets for renewable energy and pollution emissions: Environmental claims,emission-reduction accounting,and product decoupling

Green electricity generation can provide an indirect route to cleaner air: by displacing generation from fossil fuels, green electricity can reduce emissions of CO₂ and conventional air pollutants. Several types of voluntary markets have emerged in the United States to take advantage of this relationship, including green electricity programs, carbon offsets, and renewable energy certificates. At the same time, regulators are favoring cap-and-trade mechanisms for regulating emissions. This paper describes the appropriate framing of environmental claims for green electricity products. We apply an accounting framework for evaluating claims made for capped pollutants, with entries for emissions, avoided emissions due to green electricity, and unused emission permits. This framework is applied in case studies of two major electric utilities that operate with green electricity programs and capped pollutants. The cases demonstrate that the relative magnitude of “unused permits” and “emissions avoided” is a key relationship for evaluating an emissions reduction claim. Lastly, we consider the evolution of the green electricity marketplace given the reliance on cap-and-trade. In this setting, pollution-emission products could be decoupled from one another and from the various green electricity products. Several positive consequences could transpire, including better transparency of products, lower certification costs, and more product choices.     

Investment barriers and incentives for marine renewable energy in the UK: An analysis of investor preferences

Deployment of marine renewable energy (MRE) in the UK is desirable in order to address climate change, meet mandatory EU renewable energy targets and provide significant economic development opportunities, including new export markets. Public funding constraints in the UK mean that substantial investment is required from the private sector to commercialize the industry. By focussing on investor attitudes and behaviours towards wave and tidal technologies, this paper reveals significant observations from the investment community with serious implications for the future of the MRE industry. Through a series of in-depth interviews with individuals from the investment community, device developers and industry support, the research seeks to identify common barriers and incentives to investment. The paper demonstrates that although investors' attitudes are generally aligned, they do appear to have changed over time. Of the participants that had previously invested in early stage MRE device development, none were likely to do so again. It is concluded that this is a function of investors' greater understanding of the scale, and unpredictability of the costs, and the length of time required to develop these technologies. This presents a significant policy challenge for all actors interested in the commercialization of wave and tidal technologies.     

Renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India: projected levels of dissemination, energy delivery and investment requirements using available diffusion models

Using the past diffusion trends of four renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India (SPV pumps, windmill pumps and biogas/producer gas driven dual fuel engine pumps), results of an attempt to project their future dissemination levels, have been presented in this study. The likely contribution of the renewable energy options considered in the study to the projected energy demand for irrigation water pumping in India has been estimated. Estimates of the associated investment requirements taking into account the learning effect have also been presented.