Evaluation of the Bankruptcy Approach for Water Resources Allocation Conflict Resolution at Basin Scale,Iran’s Lake Urmia Experience

Water conflicts appear when there are insufficient and less available water resources than water demands claimed by different agents. In this study, a new bankruptcy approach is investigated to resolve water conflicts in the Zarrinehroud River Basin, the largest and most important sub-basin of Lake Urmia’s Basin in the northwest of Iran. The new bankruptcy method is compared with the proportional rule (PRO) and another alternative based on the cessation of irrigated agriculture in the region proposed to supply and save environmentally in danger Lake Urmia. Four scenarios consisting of the current situation, optimistic, average and pessimistic scenarios regarding the future of water resources of the basin and agricultural developments were considered. According to the results, both bankruptcy rules helped Lake Urmia to receive more water, but neither could utterly overcome the water shortage of the Lake, so can be used as supplementary actions alongside other solutions. The cessation of irrigated agriculture throughout the basin overcame the average annual shortage of Lake Urmia in the first and second scenarios equal to 137 and 148 million cubic meters respectively. It showed disability to fully supply the lake in the third and fourth scenarios. These three methods must be combined with a social-economic policy like the purchase of decreased water allocations to farmers to be socially acceptable.     

A systems approach to validating the water vision of the Aral Sea Basin

Abstract:

The governments of the Aral Sea Basin countries, in cooperation with international organizations (UNESCO and World Bank) came up with a “water vision “for the region until 2025. The landlocked Aral Sea has been suffering from an imbalance in water evaporation, and, water inflow from its two main sources — Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, when the planners in the former Soviet Union from the 1960s diverted the river waters for irrigation. The irrigated area has increased from the 1960s by two‐thirds to 7 million hectares and the population by three‐fold to 50 million in the basin countries. Consequently the inflow to the Aral Sea from these two rivers decreased from 55 km³ in 1960 to a few km³ during the 1980s and 1990s. This has resulted in one of the worst man‐made ecological disasters of the century. In this paper, we examine different scenarios to achieve the vision goals and whether it is indeed feasible. Using IWMI basin‐oriented water accounting principles, we have shown that significant amount of water is being wasted in the region. Our analysis concludes that though not all the vision goals are likely to be met over the next 25 years, the inflow into the Aral Sea can be increased to over 20 km³ through better management and use of water resources.     

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years

The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff were analyzed by the Mann–Kendall and trend analysis methods based on the hydrological, meteorological and socioeconomic data over the last 50 years in the Tarim River basin. Results show that the runoff in the headstreams increased but that in the mainstreams decreased significantly during the past 50 years. The former is a response to climate change, and the later is due to human activities. The surface runoff in the mainstreams decreased by 41.59, 63.77 and 75.15% in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively, as compared to that without being disturbed by human activities in the same period. The main human activities are the irrigated agriculture combined with population increase in the region. As a consequence, the ecosystem in the lower reaches of Tarim River has degenerated, largely owing to inappropriate allocation of water resources.     

Recent warming of Tonle Sap Lake,Cambodia: Implications for one of the world’s most productive inland fisheries

Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia is arguably the world's most productive freshwater ecosystems, as well as the dominant source of animal protein for the country. The rapid rise of hydropower schemes, deforestation, land development and climate change impacts in the Mekong River Basin, however, now represent serious concerns in regard to Tonle Sap Lake's ecological health and its role in future food security. To this end, the present study identifies significant recent warming of lake temperature and discusses how each of these anthropogenic perturbations in Tonle Sap's floodplain and the Mekong River Basin may be influencing this trend. The lake's dry season monthly average temperature increased by 0.03°C/year between 1988 and 2018, being largely in synchrony with warming trends of the local air temperature and upstream rivers. The impacts of deforestation and agriculture development in the lake's floodplain also exhibited a high correlation with an increased number of warm days observed in the lake, particularly in its southeast region (agriculture R² = .61; deforestation R² = .39). A total of 79 dams, resulting in 72 km³ of volumetric water capacity, were constructed between 2003 and 2018 in the Mekong River Basin. This dam development coincided with a decreasing trend in the number of dry season warm days per year in the lower Mekong River, while Tonle Sap Lake's number of dry season warm days continued to increase during this same period. The present study revealed that Tonle Sap Lake's temperature trends are highly influenced by temperature trends in the local climate, agriculture development and deforestation of the lake's watershed. Although there were no noticeable impacts observed from upstream dam development in the Mekong River Basin, local‐to‐regional agricultural and land management of the lake's watershed appear to be effective strategies for maintaining a stable thermal regime in the lake in order to facilitate maximum ecosystem health.     

Impacts of water level changes in the fauna,flora and physical properties over the Balkhash Lake watershed

The water level variations of the Lake Balkhash, the Kapshagay Reservoir and the Ili River and the linkage with salinity and biological conditions are investigated in this work using different techniques: satellite radar altimetry, in situ gauges, historical archives of fish population counting and field works. We show that it is possible now to monitor, over decades, in near real time, with high precision, the water level changes in the Lake Balkhash from satellite altimetry, over the reservoir and also along the Ili River. The vulnerability of the lake fauna and flora populations is enhanced by the morphometry of the lake: shallow and separation of the eastern basin from the western basin through the narrow Uzun‐Aral strait. Water policy of the Ili River also plays a fundamental role in the evolution of the Balkhash Lake. The Ili River that provides 80% of the surface water of the lake is a transboundary river. Development of intense irrigated agriculture in the upstream part of this river, located in the Chinese territory, could lead in the future to high hydrological stress in the downstream regions with potentially high damage in the delta and for fishery production. We show here the recent evolution of the Lake Balkhash basin from satellite data. Some interannual oscillation of 6–8 years over the last decade has been highlighted, with a water level of the lake still at a high value, but prediction on increasing irrigation is also highlighting the vulnerability of this lake. Linkage between water level change along the river and the downstream waters is also investigated. It shows that the role of the reservoir is not fundamental in the understanding of the Lake Balkhash water level changes which is in contrast highly correlated to upstream river level changes.     

Chloride and total phosphorus budgets for Lake Nipissing,headwater of Lake Huron,Ontario, Canada

Anthropogenic sources of total phosphorus (TP) and chloride (Cl^?) to lakes and rivers have been issues of concern for many decades in the Great Lakes Basin with northern Boreal Shield headwater tributaries less well studied. In the Sturgeon River – Lake Nipissing – French River basin, a headwater basin of Georgian Bay, Lake Huron, water quality monitoring of major inflows to Lake Nipissing, the third largest inland lake located entirely within Ontario, is only available from the mid-1960s to the 1990s. During the period of 2015–2018, we conducted monthly water quality surveys of major and minor inflows for two water years and have generated the first chloride (Cl^?) and total phosphorus (TP) elemental budgets for the lake. Review of available long-term concentration data indicate decreasing TP concentrations by decade in major inflows, but select inflows continue to exhibit concentrations above provincial objectives, including inflows from agricultural areas that are no longer part of provincial monitoring programs. Some inflows also show high average Cl^? concentrations with potential influences (e.g., road salt, agricultural activities) to stream water quality throughout the year. Water and elemental budgets indicate that while specific runoff (l/s/km²) is quite similar across contributing catchments, yields of Cl^? and TP (kg/ha/yr) are disproportionately higher in catchments with urban and agricultural activities. While uncertainties in the water balance and elemental yields remain, this first effort to quantify annual elemental budgets of Lake Nipissing highlights the need to develop community-based, spatially distributed water quality surveying for long-term ecosystem monitoring and future planning.     

Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin,Ethiopia

This study analyzes drought characteristics in the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia based on meteorological and hydrological variables. Standardized precipitation index is used for temporal and spatial analyses of meteorological drought and the theory of runs is used to define hydrological drought by considering streamflow as the drought indicator. Drought severity maps are generated using Arc View/GIS by summarizing the percentage of occurrence of droughts in areas within the study basin. Extreme drought category on 12-month time scale indicated that extreme events occur most frequently in the Upper and Middle Awash Basin. However, while considering the overall categories of drought, the most frequent droughts occurred in the Middle and Lower Awash Basin during the period of analysis. Similarly, results based on hydrological drought analysis shows that the severest drought events occurred in the Middle Awash Basin during May 1988 to June 1988 and April 1998 to May 1998. Analysis of the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought indices in the basin shows that occurrence of hydrological drought event at Melka Sedi stream gauging station lags meteorological drought event in the Upper Awash on average by 7 months with a variation of 3 to 13 months.     

Tonle Sap Lake,Cambodia: A perspective on its transborder hydrological and resources governance

Tonle Sap Lake is the largest freshwater lake in South East Asia, being situated at the heart of the Mekong River Basin. Governance of the lake over the recent past has been weak and overly complex, and the basin governance structure has changed over time in terms of its fisheries management framework. The governance framework initially focused on the commercial exploitation of fish resources, but has more recently switched to a community‐based fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and open access model. This study discusses how the water flows occurring between the Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake complicate the governance of the lake, and particularly its fisheries, biodiversity, land and water management activities. The establishment of the Tonle Sap Authority (TSA) in 2007 sought to address the governance challenges facing the lake. The current study concludes, however, that the TSA alone is not sufficient and that global, regional and national stakeholders must make an effort to ensure the water flows between the lake and the Mekong River are themselves considered a core governance issue for the Tonle Sap.     

黄河流域地表水耗损量变化特点

分析了黄河流域1956-2009年地表水耗损量逐年变化的特点及结构现状.结果表明:黄河流域多年平均地表水耗损量为254.1亿m3;20世纪50-60年代用水量相对较小,70年代稳步上升,80年代达到顶峰,90年代之后趋于稳定.     

Irrigation infrastructure development in the Limarí Basin in Central Chile: implications for adaptation to climate variability and climate change

One option to deal with climate variability in agriculture is to build irrigation infrastructure, although this may lead to the overdevelopment of water resources, leading to ‘basin closure’. The Limarí Basin, in central north Chile, has relied on irrigation infrastructure over the last 30 years to increase water supply reliability and extend irrigated acreage, especially for permanent crops. This situation has reduced adaptation opportunities in the basin, which is currently experiencing a severe drought that, according to climate change projections, is expected to persist in the future, with important consequences for the sustainability of agriculture production.     

Laurentian Great Lakes Hydrology and Lake Levels under the Transposed 1993 Mississippi River Flood Climate

The Laurentian Great Lakes are North America's largest water resource, and include six large water bodies (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, and Georgian Bay), Lake St. Clair, and their connecting channels. Because of the relatively small historical variability in system lake levels, there is a need for realistic climate scenarios to develop and test sensitivity and resilience of the system to extreme high lake levels. This is particularly important during the present high lake level regime that has been in place since the late 1960s. In this analysis, we use the unique climate conditions which resulted in the 1993 Mississippi River flooding as an analog to test the sensitivity of Great Lakes hydrology and water levels to a rare but actual climate event. The climate over the Upper Mississippi River basin was computationally shifted, corresponding to a conceptual shift of the Great Lakes basin 10̊ west and 2̊ south. We applied a system of hydrological models to the daily meteorological time series and determined daily runoff, lake evaporation, and net basin water supplies. The accumulated net basin supplies from May through October 1993 for the 1993 Mississippi River flooding scenario ranged from a 1% decrease for Lake Superior to a large increase for Lake Erie. Water levels for each lake were determined from a hydro-logic routing model of the system. Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie were most affected. The simulated rise in Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels far exceeded the historically recorded rise with both lakes either approaching or setting record high levels. This scenario demonstrates that an independent anomalous event, beginning with normal lake levels, could result in record high water levels within a 6- to 9-month period. This has not been demonstrated in the historical record or by other simulation studies.     

近50年黑河流域降水变化特征分析

黑河流域是我国西北地区第二大内陆流域,中游地区,地势平缓,水源充足,并建有多座水库,是西部粮食和蔬菜生产基地之一。在气候变化的背景下,该流域的降水格局发生了一定程度的变化。现以黑河流域及周边地区15个气象站点1961年-2010年的逐日降水资料和国家1∶25万的DEM资料为基础,分析了黑河流域平原地区和山丘地区的降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)平原地区降水较少而山区降水相对较多,整体呈降水增加趋势且山区所占比例较大;(2)山区和平原地区的降水质心均向西南偏移,且山区偏移明显;(3)全流域上分布较广的0～100mm降水带在萎缩,相反分布稀少300mm以上降水带在增加。     

Detecting land use/land cover changes in the Lake Hayq (Ethiopia) drainage basin, 1957–2007

Land use/land cover changes in a lake drainage basin reflect changes in the magnitude of the water balance components and rate of sediment deposition in a lake as a reflection of the fundamental linkage between what happens in a lake considered against what is happening in the drainage basin of the lake. The objective of this study was to quantify the spatio‐temporal land cover/land use changes across the Lake Hayq 1 1 Lake Hayq is also locally called Lego.
closed drainage basin in north‐east Ethiopia over a 50‐years period, using multitemporal remote sensing and geospatial data. Two historical occasions of aerial photographs (1957 and 1986) and one satellite image (2007) were examined with image analysis tools: Leica Photogrammetric Suite (LPS 9.2) Project Manager, ArcGIS10.0, and ERDAS EMAGINE 9.2. Seven aerial coverage of land use/land cover categories were identified and mapped for the past three historical times. The results indicated that farmlands/settlements and shrublands/degraded lands increased by 43.1% and 136.9%, at an annual rate of 27.4 and 13.5 ha year^?1, respectively, between 1957 and 2007. In contrast, bushlands, grasslands, forestlands and lake surface area were diminished by 68.8%, 62.7%, 90.5% and 7.6%, at a rate of 24.0, 7.6, 6.1 and 3.7 ha year^?1, respectively, over the past five decades. The basin had undergone significant transformation in land use/land cover over the past half century, affecting the lake's biophysical stability by accelerating soil erosion in the basin, sediment accumulation, and a reduced quantity and quality of cumulative stream flow into the lake.     

Environmental flow assessment as a tool for achieving environmental objectives of African water policy,with examples from East Africa

Africa has set ambitious targets for development of water resources over the coming decades. Africa Water Vision 2025 calls for a doubling of irrigated agriculture and a five-fold increase in water use for agriculture, industry, and hydropower. The ambitious development targets are framed in the context of integrated water resources management, which also seeks to simultaneously allocate sufficient water for environmental sustainability. Over the past two decades scientists have devised a number of practical and robust approaches to determine environmental water requirements in rivers and wetlands based on the objectives set in water planning. We review the most widely applied approaches to assess environmental flow requirements and consider their application in Africa through case studies in the transboundary Mara River basin of Kenya and Tanzania and the Great Ruaha River basin in Tanzania.     

Frequency and Spatial Characteristics of Droughts in the Conchos River Basin,Mexico

Abstract

The temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in a semi-arid region. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined in the Conchos River Basin in Mexico. This basin is important to both the United States and Mexico, because the Conchos River supplies approximately 80 percent of the flows of the Lower Bravo/Grande River above the binational reservoirs of Amistad and Falcon. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the PDSI are used to develop a drought intensity—areal extent—frequency curve that can assess the severity of a regional drought in the basin. The analysis of the PDSI suggests that the Conchos River Basin had a severe drought in the 1990s, which the basin has not experienced before. Based on this analysis, the recent drought that occurred in the 1990s has an associated return period of about 80 to 100 years over the basin.     

新疆阿克苏河流域农业灌溉与节水途径

阿克苏河流域水资源虽然比较丰富，但随着塔里木河流域限额用水制度的不断完善，农业灌溉用水正面临着资源型缺水。因此，提高流域各灌区用水效率将是未来农业节水的重要途径。     

Poyang Lake basin: a successful, large-scale integrated basin management model for developing countries

Protection of water environment while developing socio-economy is a challenging task for lake regions of many developing countries. Poyang Lake is the largest fresh water lake in China, with its total drainage area of 160,000 km2. In spite of rapid development of socio-economy in Poyang Lake region in the past several decades, water in Poyang Lake is of good quality and is known as the "last pot of clear water" of the Yangtze River Basin in China. In this paper, the reasons of "last pot of clear water" of Poyang Lake were analysed to demonstrate how economic development and environmental protection can be coordinated. There are three main reasons for contributing to this coordinated development: 1) the unique geomorphologic features of Poyang Lake and the short water residence time; 2) the matching of the basin physical boundary with the administrative boundary; and 3) the implementation of "Mountain-River-Lake Program" (MRL), with the ecosystem concept of "mountain as source, river as connection flow, and lake as storage". In addition, a series of actions have been taken to coordinate development, utilisation, management and protection in the Poyang Lake basin. Our key experiences are: considering all basin components when focusing on lake environment protection is a guiding principle; raising the living standard of people through implementation of various eco-economic projects or models in the basin is the most important strategy; preventing soil and water erosion is critical for protecting water sources; and establishing an effective governance mechanism for basin management is essential. This successful, large-scale basin management model can be extended to any basin or lake regions of developing countries where both environmental protection and economic development are needed and coordinated.     

灞河流域气候因子对水沙变化的影响

利用灞河流域蓝田气象站和马渡王水文站1960—2012年的气象、水文实测资料,分析灞河流域气候及水沙变化规律,同时运用相关性分析、灰色关联分析、多元线性回归模型等多种方法探讨了该流域水沙变化与气候变化的关系。结果表明:灞河流域降雨量、蒸发量、径流量和输沙量皆呈显著下降趋势,而气温呈上升趋势;降雨量与水沙都有重要的相关关系,1960—1990年影响径流量的气候因子敏感度由大至小依次为降雨量、气温、蒸发量,而1991—2012年则为降雨量、蒸发量、气温,当气温和蒸发量不变时,降雨量每增加1 mm,两阶段的年径流量分别增加0.14亿m3和0.08亿m3;1960—2012年影响输沙量的气候因子敏感度由大至小依次为降雨量、气温、蒸发量,当气温和蒸发量不变时,降雨量每增加1 mm,年输沙量增加0.668万t。     

阿姆河流域耕地变化及水土匹配特征分析

基于中亚阿姆河流域4个分区1990—2015年间土地利用变化和水资源等数据,运用耕地变化速率、洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数法以及水土资源匹配系数对阿姆河流域耕地变化和水土匹配状况进行了综合分析。结果表明:1990—2015年阿姆河流域耕地以146.74 km²/a的速度在扩张,且各时期、各分区扩张的速度不同;在不考虑咸海来水不断减少、生态持续恶化的前提下,绿洲区匹配状况属比较公平和相对合理状况;阿姆河流域水土资源空间分布存在明显的错位现象;全流域生态用水被农业用水严重挤占,阿姆河流域灌溉面积、灌溉用水量成为影响咸海水量及面积变化的重要因素,是一种不可持续的用水方式。     

Impacts of land-use/cover changes on the hydrology of the transboundary Mara River, Kenya/Tanzania

The Mara River is the lifeline of the transboundary Mara basin across Kenya and Tanzania. The basin is considered one of the more serene subcatchments of the Lake Victoria Basin and ultimately the Nile Basin, and traverses the famous Maasai Mara and Serengeti National Parks. The basin also contains forests, large‐scale farms, smallholder farms, pastoral grazing lands, as well as hunter gatherers and fishers. There is growing concern, however, regarding land degradation in the basin, particularly deforestation in the headwaters, that is affecting the natural resource base and the river flows. Accurate scientific data are required to advise policy, and to plan appropriate mitigation measures. This study utilizes remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) tools, and hydrological and ground‐truth studies to determine the magnitude of the land‐use/cover changes in the Mara River Basin, and the effects of these changes on the river flows over the last 30 years. The study results indicate that land‐use/cover changes have occurred. In 1973, for example, rangelands (savannah, grasslands and shrublands) covered 10 989 km² (79%) of the total basin area. The rangelands had been reduced to 7245 km² (52%) by 2000, however, while the forest areas were reduced by 32% over the same period. These changes have been attributed to the encroachment of agriculture, which has more than doubled (203%) its land area over the same period. The hydrology of the Mara River also has changed, with sharp increases in flood peak flows by 7%, and an earlier occurrence of these peaks by 4 days between 1973 and 2000. There is evidence of increased soil erosion in the upper catchments, with silt build‐up in the downstream floodplains. This has caused the Mara wetland to expand by 387%, adversely affecting riparian agriculture. There is need for urgent action to stem the land degradation of the Mara River Basin, including planning and implementing appropriate mitigation measures.