公租房 PPP 项目三阶段动态收益分配模型及应用

公租房 PPP 项目是目前公租房项目的重要形式之一,而项目的收益分配方案是项目成功的关键。公租房 PPP 项目 的阶段性特征明显,而目前关于 PPP 项目收益分配的研究大多未考虑 PPP 项目的阶段性特征,不能满足动态收益分配的要 求。因此,考虑项目的动态性和变化性,尝试构建覆盖项目全生命周期的公租房 PPP 项目三阶段动态收益分配模型。即建 立基于公租房 PPP 项目收益分配影响因素修正的 Shapley 值初步收益分配模型;基于合作主体的满意度采用不对称 Nash 谈 判模型进行调整;根据参与各方的阶段性实际贡献综合评价结果再次调整,得到最终的收益分配方案。为公租房 PPP 项目 的收益分配问题提供了一定的参考。     

Value for Money and Risk in Public–Private Partnerships

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Delivering improved public services at lower cost, also known formally as value for money (VfM), is often the main rationale for procuring large infrastructure projects through public–private partnerships (PPPs). However, it is unclear whether the ex ante assessments of PPPs account for key planning concerns, including limitations on community consultation, contractual lock-ins that curtail public flexibility to make future plans, and a political preference for PPPs that may influence the way that projects are structured and evaluated. This set of questions is examined for 28 infrastructure PPPs delivered in Ontario, Canada, and interviews with18 senior political, government, and private-sector participants in the province's PPP industry. We find that transferring of construction risks from government to the private-sector partners drives VfM results, and may overvalue the extent to which planning related risks can be transferred.

Takeaway for practice: PPP contract structures should permit more transparency during the project planning process and preserve the flexibility of governments to control key planning tasks such as user fees, service coordination and facility expansion. Strategies might include: the unbundling of construction and operation phases of the PPP in all but the most unique situations, the use of competitive dialogue tendering to deepen public–private collaboration earlier in the planning process, and the inclusion of contract rebalancing terms to better share rather than transfer project risks.

Research support: This research was funded through a Standard Research Grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Application Number: 110998).     

Flexible contracts to cope with uncertainty in public–private partnerships

Public private partnerships (PPP) are long lasting contracts, generally involving large sunk investments, and developed in contexts of great uncertainty. If uncertainty is taken as an assumption, rather as a threat, it could be used as an opportunity. This requires managerial flexibility. The paper addresses the concept of contract flexibility as well as the several possibilities for its incorporation into PPP development. Based upon existing classifications, the authors propose a double entry matrix as a new model for contract flexibility. A case study has been selected – a hospital – to assess and evaluate the benefits of developing a flexible contract, building a model based on the real options theory. The evidence supports the initial thesis that allowing the concessionaire to adapt, under certain boundaries, the infrastructure and services to changing conditions when new information is known, does increase the value of the project. Some policy implications are drawn.     

Options-based negotiation management of PPP–BOT infrastructure projects

The success of public–private partnership (PPP)–build–operate–transfer (BOT) projects largely depends on effectively mitigating the impact of a variety of risks and uncertainties, especially those influencing the revenue over time. Revenue instability is one of the main obstacles of PPP form of procurement. Government support, which is established as a clause in the concession agreement, should be carefully designed and well formulated. Options which arise from certain clauses in the contract are more valuable for risky projects. The purpose of this paper’s proposed model is to evaluate early fund generation options and also to calculate equitable bounds for a guaranteed revenue for the project sponsor under uncertainty and risk. The model is specially designed to alleviate the concern of revenue risk. To illustrate its applicability the methodology is then applied to a freeway PPP project and a power plant PPP project in Iran. The results show that the value of these options can indeed be significant and by applying the proposed systematic negotiation mechanism both public and private sectors can take advantage of its flexibility at the negotiation table. The proposed mechanisms can facilitate negotiations on the verge of a break down as well as accelerating ongoing negotiations that have become moribund.     

Review of studies on the public–private partnerships (PPP) for infrastructure projects

Public–private partnership (PPP) is an approach adopted to enhance the economic value of infrastructure outputs, and it encompasses a broad spectrum of public sector infrastructure. Many researchers have explored the application of PPP to improve the efficiency of infrastructure delivery. This study aims to review the existing PPP research to explore the status quo, trends, and gaps in research for PPP infrastructure projects. A systematic process involving a three-phase word frequency analysis, cluster analysis, and a search on potential research topics helps to provide enough potential articles related to PPP research and reduce arbitrariness and subjectivity involved in the research topic analysis. As a result, six main research topics aligned with the infrastructure PPP projects were derived. The research gaps and research directions can serve as a motivation for researchers and practitioners to work on the next generation of PPP studies to support the development of infrastructure.     

Future proofing PPPs: Life-cycle performance measurement and Building Information Modelling

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are widely used to procure public infrastructure assets and are an effective mechanism for ensuring value for money. However, many PPPs in Australia have been plagued with controversy as they have experienced significant cost and schedule overruns during construction. Critical to the successful delivery of PPP projects is effective performance measurement/evaluation. Yet, conventional ex-post evaluation that solely focuses on meeting budget and a predetermined schedule are invariably applied to measure PPPs in practice. This paper reviews the performance measurement literature used to evaluate PPP projects and proposes that a life-cycle approach to their evaluation is needed to ‘future proof’ their performance and ensure value for money that is delivered to the public sector. As the primary focus of PPPs is to maximise profitability, there is a need to ameliorate the coordination and integration between the Special Purpose Vehicle, end-users and the public sector. This can be enabled through the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) as it not only provides digital representation of the physical and functional characteristics of an asset, but also provides key decision makers with the ability to make informed decisions across a project's life-cycle. When aligned with a series of core indicators that are used for performance measurement, it is suggested that BIM can act as a catalyst for ‘future proofing’ PPPs and enable the successful management of an asset throughout its life-cycle.     

公租房PPP 项目收益分配研究

为了合理分配公租房PPP 项目的收益,充分调动民间资金参与公租房项目的合作意愿,选取公租房PPP 项目中公共部门、私人部门以及项目特许经营单位3 个核心部门为收益分配对象,综合考虑合作意愿、风险分担、投资比例及努力程度对公租房PPP 项目收益分配的影响,采用层次分析法法确定合作意愿因子、风险分担因子,构建基于合作意愿、风险分担、投资比例及努力程度等因素修正Shapley 值的公租房PPP 项目收益分配模型,使用该模型得到的公租房PPP 项目的收益分配结果更加合理,使项目参与各方满意,充分调动参与各方的积极性。     

A review of studies on Public–Private Partnership projects in the construction industry

Public–Private Partnership (PPP) in construction is gaining in popularity. Although papers published in major journals have documented real cases of PPP projects, there appears to be a lack of systematically summarizing what they have already provided. Consequently, this paper reviewed PPP studies published in the six top journals in the construction field. The objectives are to compare and contrast the findings of the studies so as to provide insights for directing further PPP research and improving the existing practices of PPP projects. To achieve the review objectives, studies were first classified as either empirical or non-empirical. Empirical studies were further grouped under three themes: risks, relationships, and financing. Non-empirical studies were grouped under five themes: financing, project success factors, risks, and concession period. Suggestions for further research are risks, financing, contractual agreements, development of PPP models, concession periods, and strategies in choosing the right type of PPP.     

海绵城市项目应用 PPP 模式的 VFM 评价

为解决海绵城市项目因投资大导致融资难的问题,将 PPP 模式运用到海绵城市项目。论述了 PPP 模式在海绵城市建设中的可行性和必要性,利用“物有所值”的原则来判断海绵城市项目是否适合运用 PPP 模式,简要总结了关于 VFM 评价理论的研究与国内外发展情况,并根据海绵城市项目选择合适的评价方法。建立 PPP 模式下海绵城市项目的 VFM 评价模型,分别计算海绵城市项目的 PSC 值与 PPP 模式下的 LCC 值,比较两者得出 VFM。并以济南大明湖兴隆片区建设为例,计算 VFM 来验证评价模型在海绵城市项目中应用的可行性     

Alternative approach to credit scoring by DEA: Evaluating borrowers with respect to PFI projects

Private finance initiative (PFI), as a form of public/private partnership (PPP), helps to contract the private sector to governmental projects. In contrast to traditional public financed projects, PFI projects are procured by allowing a private sector entity to take the responsibility to design, build, finance, and operate (DBFO) an asset for a contract period of up to several decades. Moreover, banks are perceived to take the leading role in financing PFI projects. Since project financing involves credit assessment of loan applicants, banks have employed popular credit scoring models to assess their creditworthiness. Although the existing models are useful for credit scoring, new models have to emerge in response to ever-changing business practices. This paper therefore aims at introducing the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as an alternative credit-scoring model. Unlike traditional credit-scoring building on a formula where weights to a set of criteria are assigned subjectively, DEA will automatically generate the relative weights for analysis. However, incorporating DEA demands additional considerations, which are discussed in this paper. Finally, examples are demonstrated for illustrating this alterative approach to credit scoring by DEA.     

Investment decision model of wastewater treatment public–private partnership projects based on value for money

Most existing studies analyse the early decision‐making processes of public–private partnership (PPP) projects from the perspective of the government or investors, as such decisions involve lengthy negotiations and are likely to lead to unfair results. Hence, there is a need for fair and reasonable investment decision‐making methods. This study investigates the investment return system of PPP wastewater treatment projects. The net present value of investment income is considered the investment decision indicator of social capital, while value for money (VFM) is the indicator of government decision‐making. Considering both yield and VFM, the system dynamics method and Vensim software are used to establish the investment decision model. A case study validates the proposed model and predicts a reasonable range of unit prices and concession periods for wastewater treatment through government–enterprise cooperation, to improve the transparency and initial decision fairness of PPP sewage treatment projects.     

Public–private partnership projects in Greece: risk ranking and preferred risk allocation

Project participants, through experience, have an initial perception and predisposition towards risk and the types of risks they are willing and able to undertake. This is equally true for parties interested in public–private partnership (PPP) projects. These initial positions have been registered for the major Greek PPP market stakeholders potentially involved in a PPP arrangement through a survey covering all candidate construction companies, interested financing institutes and a number of public sector entities to be involved in PPPs. Findings revealed that stakeholders were, for the majority of risks identified, in agreement as to preferred risk allocation. Risk allocation preferences for construction companies were compared with similar findings for the UK, a mature PPP market, indicating a possible learning/maturing process based on the particular country background. Conclusions add to other surveys carried out on the subject and should enable public sector clients to establish a more efficient framework for risk allocation, thus reducing negotiations prior to contract award and minimizing the risk of poor risk distribution.     

A critical review of the application of TCE in the interpretation of risk allocation in PPP contracts

Along with the rise of public–private partnerships (PPPs) as a mainstream procurement system, we have seen a growing interest in studies of risk allocation in these projects. One of the serious academic endeavours is to apply both transaction cost economics (TCE) and the resource-based view (RBV) to explain risk allocation patterns found in PPP projects. The existing literature along these lines is deficient in three aspects: inappropriate choice of unit of analysis; poor specification of governance structure; and misinterpretation of asset specificity. A way for improvement is to analyse risk allocation in the context of PPP procurement in its entirety.     

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.     

Vergabeentscheidung und Wirtschaftlichkeitsberechnung von PPP/PFI‐Projekten in der Bauwirtschaft

Contract letting and economic calculation of PPP/PFI projects in construction industries. Risk premium has to be taken into account in the PPP comparison of producti‐vity. In case of PPP/PFI projects, officials compare the costs of self construction to the costs of leasing from private investors (PSC calculation). In this context, risk factors for two different variants (A, B) are calculated using both the DCF method and the VaR approach. Finally, the economic results for each PPP party and the expected yield are discussed.     

地方政府能力视角下公共服务 PPP 供给方式决策研究

地方政府能力是影响公共服务可持续提供的重要因素,不同的 PPP 供给方式对政府能力需求不同。基于国家发展改革委公布的 PPP 项目数据,采用多分类 Logistic 回归模型检验了地方政府能力对公共服务 PPP 供给方式选择的影响及其内在作用关系。结果表明:地方政府资源获取能力对公共服务 PPP 供给方式决策的影响最为显著,地方政府资源配置能力和资源运用能力对公共服务供给方式决策的影响次之;从公共项目属性视角,资产专用性水平越低、服务可测量水平越高,越有利于政府选择市场化水平较高的公共服务供给方式;政府资源配置能力在政府资源获取能力与 PPP 供给方式决策之间存在显著的调节效应,即较高的政府资源配置能力能够正向促进政府资源获取能力与 PPP 供给方式决策的影响作用     

基于Shapley-IAHP 的PPP 项目收益分配模型及应用

PPP 项目主体的利益诉求影响项目的运行效率和成果质量,合理化收益分配对项目建设及实施成效有重要意义。针对现有PPP 项目收益分配模型中影响因素赋权的主观性和绝对性的不足,运用区间层次分析法将PPP 项目收益分配的影响因素权重部分拓展为区间数,并提出以统计分组的频率刻画区间指标权重,基于投入比例、风险分摊和合作性3 个影响因素构建PPP 项目Shapley-IAHP 收益分配模型。将改进的Shapley-IAHP 收益分配模型应用于四川省某工业园区污水处理PPP项目,以验证该模型的可行性。提出的模型对于PPP 项目收益分配研究及实践有一定参考价值。     

PPP 项目公司的股权结构及其在某养老项目中的应用

PPP 项目的发起人一般以股东身份设立项目公司作为项目的实施载体,通过整理项目融资和公司治理等股权结构的相关研究成果,分析国内外8 个典型PPP 实际项目,发现项目公司股权结构是影响项目实施效率的重要因素,主要股东通常具有专业化、短期利益或长期战略等特点,项目公司股东权益合理变化有利于公司应对PPP 项目的阶段性风险、提升公司价值。针对某社会养老机构PPP 项目的股权结构设计分析,进一步探讨股权结构设计和调整在PPP 项目中的具体操作方法和应用价值,可为政府解决公共产品和服务供给紧缺的矛盾、为大中型企业开发类似PPP 项目提供参考。     

A Dynamic Route Choice Model Considering Uncertain Capacities

Abstract: The standard assumption in (dynamic) traffic assignment models is that route choice is solely determined by a (perceived) deterministic travel time. However, recently, there is a growing interest in (dynamic) equilibrium route choice models in which travelers not only select their paths based on an estimated deterministic travel time, but also based on travel time reliability, in this article defined as the probability that the actual travel time deviates from the anticipated value. We extend the linear programming cell transmission model‐based dynamic traffic assignment (LP CTM‐DTA) model to account for travelers’ consideration of uncertainty regarding saturation flow rates (in this article referred to as capacities). It is shown that these reliability considerations can be accounted for by simply reducing the road capacities appearing in the constraint set of the classical LP CTM‐DTA model. More importantly, we provide results on the amount of capacity reduction necessary to ensure a certain reliability level. Although in the proposed model any probability distribution can be used to model the uncertainty, the selection of a specific probability distribution can potentially be burdensome for the modeler. To this end, we also present results on the class of symmetric probability distributions that has been particularly popular in the robust optimization literature. Properties for this broad class of distributions will be derived within the context of the introduced model. In numerical case studies, the model predicts that travel patterns can be significantly different when accounting for travelers’ reliability considerations.